2020 NBA Draft Prospects: Thread II

[Killboard]

I don't know about the rest, but I wouldn't give shooting a check.

42% 3pt off the dribble (86 total) and 87% FT it's a pass for me. I suppose we will know for sure in a couple of years.

Whenever a guys a bad three point shooter you find people saying well he was really good on corner threes or catch and shoot threes or threes off the dribble or threes on Sundays in months that start with a J. He shot under 30% from 3. That is bad.

If he never improves he will be a bad 3pt shooter. But I can't think of many 18 years old that don't improve. They barely stopped growing. I neither think all 3pt shots have the same difficutly. When you take into account his shooting touch (FT%) and footwork (off the dribble%) I'm confident to say he will be an adequate 3pt shooter at worst. But don't believe me. Let's wait and see.

[Nick K]

Passing on Edwards and seeing him develop into a star wing would be the most painful draft miss in Wolves history

That's right. It would be right up there and I've been a part of every draft in team history. The kid is a swing for the fences pick in a draft where no one is certain. He has serious talent that translates.

People can pick this guy apart all day but that's where developing raw talent comes in. He's only 19 and a little immature. What the hell do people expect from a 19 yr old? He has a pro body right now and I can only imagine 5 years from now.

Someone asked about the Wiggins comp and I said no comparison because at least Edwards played with killer passion half the time. Wiggins never played with killer passion.

Edwards put up 28 or more against 5 teams and was on fire.

[Killboard]

Passing on Edwards and seeing him develop into a star wing would be the most painful draft miss in Wolves history

That's right. It would be right up there and I've been a part of every draft in team history. The kid is a swing for the fences pick in a draft where no one is certain. He has serious talent that translates.

People can pick this guy apart all day but that's where developing raw talent comes in. He's only 19 and a little immature. What the hell do people expect from a 19 yr old? He has a pro body right now and I can only imagine 5 years from now.

Someone asked about the Wiggins comp and I said no comparison because at least Edwards played with killer passion half the time. Wiggins never played with killer passion.

Edwards put up 28 or more against 5 teams and was on fire.

Somebody knows why he wasn't in the u19 or u17 Team USA? I wanted to find some film of him playing along top talent.

[KGdaBom]

42% 3pt off the dribble (86 total) and 87% FT it's a pass for me. I suppose we will know for sure in a couple of years.

Whenever a guys a bad three point shooter you find people saying well he was really good on corner threes or catch and shoot threes or threes off the dribble or threes on Sundays in months that start with a J. He shot under 30% from 3. That is bad.

If he never improves he will be a bad 3pt shooter. But I can't think of many 18 years old that don't improve. They barely stopped growing. I neither think all 3pt shots have the same difficutly. When you take into account his shooting touch (FT%) and footwork (off the dribble%) I'm confident to say he will be an adequate 3pt shooter at worst. But don't believe me. Let's wait and see.

He may or may not develop a decent shot. IMO you can't give him a check mark for shot as if we know he is a good shooter. That's all I was saying.

[Klomp]

I saw this and found it interesting and revealing....

An interesting post from Canis today:

Spoiler:

"I thought I would share an experience I had today.

I make videos for Best Buy for a living.

We have an internal video series called "Think Blue" where we interview experts from other industries.

Today, I was supposed to "direct" a Zoom interview with Gersson Rosas as part of the series.

When the interviewer had a last-minute conflict, I was asked to step in, as everyone knows what a big Wolves fan I am.

I had helped develop some of the questions ahead of time, so it wasn’t a huge leap to step into that role.

Gersson was, of course, as impressive as one would anticipate.

Long, eloquent answers to questions on culture, diversity, social justice.

Now that I was host, though, I was able to squeeze in a couple of questions of my choosing.

One was asking the following.

"When it comes to drafting players, how much do you value taking home run swings, versus making sure you don’t strike out? Is it more important to have a predictable range of outcomes when you spend your draft capital, or do you accept volatility in outcomes if it means higher potential upside?"

In his answer, Gersson definitely came down on the side of the draft being a place exclusively for home run swings. He views trades and free agency as the place you fill needs with predictable outcomes, and the draft as the place where you accept volatility for the sake of high upside return.

That answer made me feel that he’s not going to be at all afraid of drafting Ball, despite the wide range of possible outcomes.

I also think it indicates that he’s unlikely to trade down and draft a "safe" player like Devin Vassell.

I managed to end the interview this way.

"Finally, I know you’re not going to tell me who you’re leaning towards taking with the #1 pick. So, just blink once if it’s LaMelo Ball, twice if it’s Anthony Edwards, or if you’re going to trade down to the 4-6 range, draft Killian Hayes, and get a 2021 first round pick in return, don’t do anything."

He was very amused and started laughing at that ending.

If that’s what happens, I’m going to say I won him over.

Anyway, I thought I’d share, for what it’s worth."

Posted by HumdingerTV on Sep 21, 2020 | 2:52 PM
------------------------------------

I think he swings for the fence with Edwards. No doubt in my mind.

I don't know whether or not this story is legit, but I don't really have a concrete reason to doubt it. I do believe the logic shared by Rosas in the story makes a lot of sense and even aligns with the moves he made in his first year on the job.

For the record, something had been bugging me all day. That username had sounded familiar, and I was pretty sure it was all legit, but I couldn't place it or verify it. Well, I just placed it and look what I found.....

Read on Twitter

[Klomp]

Somebody knows why he wasn't in the u19 or u17 Team USA? I wanted to find some film of him playing along top talent.

Not everyone is involved in the Team USA circuit.

[Klomp]

This is interesting, and shows the depth of the two high school classes.

In May, 247 Sports had Edwards as the No. 27 player in the 2020 class. Now you won’t find a scouting service that ranks him outside of the top four for 2019.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2019/1/15/18139281/anthony-edwards-basketball-recruiting-nba-draft

[jpatrick]

This is interesting, and shows the depth of the two high school classes.

In May, 247 Sports had Edwards as the No. 27 player in the 2020 class. Now you won’t find a scouting service that ranks him outside of the top four for 2019.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2019/1/15/18139281/anthony-edwards-basketball-recruiting-nba-draft

Edwards is late to basketball. While it seems most top kids have been fixated on basketball year round since they were 8, Edwards was considered be of the top national football prospects in his age group for most of his life and thought that’d be his route. Wasn’t until about 8th or 9th grade that he really started to focus on basketball. He ended up playing both at a small high school and smaller AAU team.

How you see this inexperience is up to you. Some say you can never make up that lost time and his instincts will never be up to someone who has played more ball. Others say that it means he has a higher ceiling because he has more growth the more he plays.

[Jedzz]

Passing on Edwards and seeing him develop into a star wing would be the most painful draft miss in Wolves history

No it wouldn't! Nothing is ever going to surpass taking two PGs before pick #6 and passing on Steph Curry twice.

Drafting a #1 overall and ending up with a complete bust is the most painful thing they could do at this time given the immediate results of Culver from last season and still waiting on Okogie to become more from our most recent high picks still here.
Could you handle drafting an Anthony Bennett level bust. Or Wiggins for that matter and being sold pipe dreams as he steals 6 years of starting minutes from this team?

Sadly we are primed for such a possible event in a draft with a top end seemingly like the 2013 and 2014 drafts. Let us take a trip and revisit Memory Lane.

In order of selection these drafts also produced real players that Clev/MN would have loved to have gotten in hindsight.
2013: KCP, CJ McCollum, Giannis, Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder, Gobert, (Covington/Seth Curry undrafted)
2014: Embiid, Gordon, Smart, LaVine, Warren, Nurkic, Gary Harris, Rodney Hood, Capella, Bogdan B. Joe Harris, Dinwiddie, Kleber

I mean, have you heard of any of these players? Meanwhile Cleveland (and Minnesota) went after the hype and "upside" those drafts. Love was traded for both Bennett and Wiggins and I await the claims that Minnesota didn't whisper into Cleveland's ear who should be drafted in '14 for the coming summer trade for Love.

In 2015, if MN would have passed on Towns and say traded down...he would be ripping it up for Lakers to this day, or whoever traded up for him. Meanwhile hopefully MN would have at least drafted from the set of Dlo, Okafor, KP, Booker, Oubre, Rozier, Nance, Norman Powell, (Wood undrafted).

Ever see a Kelly Oubre Jr(15) or Norman Powell(46) shot chart? How about a Booker(13) 70pt game? Do you think those teams are crying over not getting Towns #1 in 2015?

How about that 2009 draft. Having two chances to get it right, back to back. 5th and 6th pick
Draft goes...Griffen(pf)/Thabeet(c)/Harden(sg)/Evans(sg)/...it must have felt like a dream for Wolves extraordinaire David Kahn who needed a PG really bad and had his pick as if he had the #1 and #2 overall choices to make an allstar PG happen with picks 5 and 6, and later picks like 18 and 28 yet to come. Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn/..........Curry. yep that happened! Wolves I think took three PGs that draft. Most Pain Ever. Maybe Kahn should have traded 18+28+ a future first for #6 so he could have chosen three PGs in a row and...and...probably would have chosen Jennings, Lawson, or Teague at #6 anyway. because they had the "upside" hype.

Ask Currywhat he thinks of that year's draft process and experts:

“I remember Doug Gottlieb, who was a major draft analyst at the time, talking about how there were six other point guards in my class with a higher upside than I had. SportsCenter put up a tweet with his comment on it……



And of course I’m just playing, and I can smile about something like that now. But at the time?? Man…. it’s hard to even describe how much comments like that bugged me.

All this analysis that people would put out there, all these scouting reports and whatever, that kept the focus on what I supposedly couldn’t do. “Undersized.” “Not a finisher.” “Extremely limited.” I can still reel them off to this day. But what’s even crazier is how, also to this day — even with how I’ve ended up doing my thing, and even with all of these unique types of players coming into the league and showing what they can do — you’re still seeing these so-called experts scouting hoops that same old way: by focusing on the downside of what guys can’t do.

Instead of figuring out the upside of what they can.”

May I highly suggest this very good read to anyone believing the tweets and statements by the draft experts and consensus talk? https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/stephen-curry-underrated

[Klomp]

This is interesting, and shows the depth of the two high school classes.

In May, 247 Sports had Edwards as the No. 27 player in the 2020 class. Now you won’t find a scouting service that ranks him outside of the top four for 2019.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2019/1/15/18139281/anthony-edwards-basketball-recruiting-nba-draft

Edwards is late to basketball. While it seems most top kids have been fixated on basketball year round since they were 8, Edwards was considered be of the top national football prospects in his age group for most of his life and thought that’d be his route. Wasn’t until about 8th or 9th grade that he really started to focus on basketball. He ended up playing both at a small high school and smaller AAU team.

How you see this inexperience is up to you. Some say you can never make up that lost time and his instincts will never be up to someone who has played more ball. Others say that it means he has a higher ceiling because he has more growth the more he plays.

True, and I just did learn of his inexperience myself mere minutes before this post. Not sure quite yet how I feel about it.

[Klomp]

I don't get a Wiggins vibe from Edwards. I think that's the wrong former Wolf. I actually see a little more Shabazz in him. Thankfully for Edwards, one big difference is he's younger than many of his peers while Shabazz was older than his.

[Klomp]

One of the players is really known because of instagram and his father's drummed up marketing as much as anything real. So how are you going to decide if Rosas has picked Best Pure Talent or not with the #1 pick.

This is ridiculous to me. The world may have been introduced to him by social media/marketing, but that doesn't nullify the player's on-court ability. Social media stars don't get automatically vaulted to the top of the rankings without showing basketball talent and potential, otherwise Julian Newman would be at the top of all the 2021 mocks.

Well, I mean, can you show us or tell us about some of that on court ability that supposedly shoots him to the top above all the others? Because the numbers don't really show it. He's got a nifty behind the back pass anyway. Supposedly he's got height. Top 3 stuff? Not sure I've seen enough to say so. So uh yeah, having a full time father figure/marketer and social following seems as much to blame for the top3 than anything he's shown since highschool. Trying to be objective here.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[Jedzz]

Steph Curry in college btw. .412 3pt shooter, over 25pts a game, 3 college seasons (too old?)
"#1 scorer in college basketball" - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/stephen-curry-1170/ ©DraftExpress

Edwards choice supporters might like this Curry predraft goodie:
Curry shoulders an unbelievable share of the offensive load for Davidson, ranking #1 in the NCAA in usage rate, and #2 in field goal attempts per-40. He's one of the few players in the NCAA that you can actually say that the game will likely become easier for once he's in the NBA, playing alongside better players and getting far more easy looks.

Because of the incredibly high difficulty of shots he's capable of converting, Curry has a tendency to settle for a couple of truly awful attempts every game, showing absolutely no conscious. It's difficult to gauge whether this has more to do with his role on the team, or if he just really overestimates his shooting ability at times. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/stephen-curry-1170/ ©DraftExpress

Edwards did have a high shot load. Curry was taking 18-20 shots a game. Draft Express' claimed "predraft write-ups" on Curry talk about inneffiencies, but the big difference in Edwards and Curry's college game comes in 3FG avg and FT avg, and gameIQ on display.

To finish .412 on 1006 3FG shots in college, 20th all time in 3FGa while 6th all time in 3FG%, Curry speaks to the fact that great college shooters can succeed in NBA and maybe should be drafted higher more often. Especially when they come from great gameIQ players.

Defensively, Curry puts a solid effort in, but is extremely limited by his poor physical tools on this end of the floor. He lacks great height, length or strength, and possesses below average lateral quickness, making him a potential defensive liability when being matched up with some of the more explosive guards the NBA is known for. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/stephen-curry-1170/ ©DraftExpress

[UnFadeable21]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic on Lamelo Ball

1. LaMelo Ball, guard, Illawarra Hawks (NBL): If you’ve read any of my big boards, you know that I have Ball at No. 1 on my board in a tier by himself. His ability to make plays as a lead guard in this class is unmatched. He’s a monster with ball-in-hand due to his shiftiness and ability to change pace. His live-dribble passing after he breaks down defenders is elite. He simply does stuff that players in this class can’t. He sees the second and third level of the defense at an elite level, and reacts based on what is presented to him. It’s why he posted a near 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio playing professionally this year in Australia. He makes passes that basically no one else can on the court, because he’s capable of executing them with one hand in a way that most aren’t at his age, and because he sees more passes in a way that others don’t. The shooting is a concern, but he has natural touch. I think he’ll improve there as he gets stronger and starts to take better shots when surrounded by NBA talent. His feel for the game is too high for him to keep taking disastrous pull-ups.

[Jedzz]

This is ridiculous to me. The world may have been introduced to him by social media/marketing, but that doesn't nullify the player's on-court ability. Social media stars don't get automatically vaulted to the top of the rankings without showing basketball talent and potential, otherwise Julian Newman would be at the top of all the 2021 mocks.

Well, I mean, can you show us or tell us about some of that on court ability that supposedly shoots him to the top above all the others? Because the numbers don't really show it. He's got a nifty behind the back pass anyway. Supposedly he's got height. Top 3 stuff? Not sure I've seen enough to say so. So uh yeah, having a full time father figure/marketer and social following seems as much to blame for the top3 than anything he's shown since highschool. Trying to be objective here.

Watch on YouTube

Clearly High praise being given there. But at the end of clip he says, and really all I'm hearing claimed is, "one of the best passing 18 year olds on the planet". Which is saying something different than how he starts the clip saying "this is the most talented prospect in the draft." and "there are no other 18 year olds, on the planet, that can handle the ball like Lamello." So a bit of conflicting info there but we can understand the point he is trying to push. While also comprehending he's not making any claims about his shooting here, just that he is a 6'7 PG that can really handle the ball. From that height is where all the projections start for ease of defense transition (if playing PG). Meanwhile it also list some basic concepts his NBL coaches say he didn't even know when he got there. Hopefully they force fed him some basketball context while there.

As I've posted about before, would we be drafting him #1 overall if he's basically Rubio on offense with less defensive effort and gameIQ, but just more height ? Because in Rubio's draft we passed on Curry to select that gimmicky albeit effective natural passing and court vision stuff. Does 6'7 height make it ok this time around? That clip also coming before this past college/international season, I wonder if there was some expectation that things like shooting/defense game knowledge etc might improve yet with the 2019–20 NBL season. Did it?

[Guidus88]

Would you trade MIN 2020 1st round pick for Porter Jr and Den 2021 1st round pick?

[Killboard]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic on Lamelo Ball

1. LaMelo Ball, guard, Illawarra Hawks (NBL): If you’ve read any of my big boards, you know that I have Ball at No. 1 on my board in a tier by himself. His ability to make plays as a lead guard in this class is unmatched. He’s a monster with ball-in-hand due to his shiftiness and ability to change pace. His live-dribble passing after he breaks down defenders is elite. He simply does stuff that players in this class can’t. He sees the second and third level of the defense at an elite level, and reacts based on what is presented to him. It’s why he posted a near 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio playing professionally this year in Australia. He makes passes that basically no one else can on the court, because he’s capable of executing them with one hand in a way that most aren’t at his age, and because he sees more passes in a way that others don’t. The shooting is a concern, but he has natural touch. I think he’ll improve there as he gets stronger and starts to take better shots when surrounded by NBA talent. His feel for the game is too high for him to keep taking disastrous pull-ups.

I agree that Lamelo is the best passer on this class, but Hayes averaged the same amount of assists per40, also against pros. I also would take Hayes as a shooter and the defense is game breaker for me.

[Nick K]

Passing on Edwards and seeing him develop into a star wing would be the most painful draft miss in Wolves history

That's right. It would be right up there and I've been a part of every draft in team history. The kid is a swing for the fences pick in a draft where no one is certain. He has serious talent that translates.

People can pick this guy apart all day but that's where developing raw talent comes in. He's only 19 and a little immature. What the hell do people expect from a 19 yr old? He has a pro body right now and I can only imagine 5 years from now.

Someone asked about the Wiggins comp and I said no comparison because at least Edwards played with killer passion half the time. Wiggins never played with killer passion.

Edwards put up 28 or more against 5 teams and was on fire.

Somebody knows why he wasn't in the u19 or u17 Team USA? I wanted to find some film of him playing along top talent.

Seriously, do you do your homework? He was the #1 recruit out of high school in the Top 247 rankings.

In his 1st college game he put up 24 pts, 9 rebs abd 4 stls. Edwards put up 37 against 3rd ranked Michigan State. What does that tell you? He scored 29 pts and 15 rebs against Texas A&M. He scored 36 pts, 7 rebs, 4 ast and 4 stls against South Carolina. I don't see anyone else in this draft doing that.

Go to youtube and watch some film on him. Go to google and read his bio's. He's not perfect but damn, the kid has IT.

[Nick K]

I saw this and found it interesting and revealing....

An interesting post from Canis today:

Spoiler:

"I thought I would share an experience I had today.

I make videos for Best Buy for a living.

We have an internal video series called "Think Blue" where we interview experts from other industries.

Today, I was supposed to "direct" a Zoom interview with Gersson Rosas as part of the series.

When the interviewer had a last-minute conflict, I was asked to step in, as everyone knows what a big Wolves fan I am.

I had helped develop some of the questions ahead of time, so it wasn’t a huge leap to step into that role.

Gersson was, of course, as impressive as one would anticipate.

Long, eloquent answers to questions on culture, diversity, social justice.

Now that I was host, though, I was able to squeeze in a couple of questions of my choosing.

One was asking the following.

"When it comes to drafting players, how much do you value taking home run swings, versus making sure you don’t strike out? Is it more important to have a predictable range of outcomes when you spend your draft capital, or do you accept volatility in outcomes if it means higher potential upside?"

In his answer, Gersson definitely came down on the side of the draft being a place exclusively for home run swings. He views trades and free agency as the place you fill needs with predictable outcomes, and the draft as the place where you accept volatility for the sake of high upside return.

That answer made me feel that he’s not going to be at all afraid of drafting Ball, despite the wide range of possible outcomes.

I also think it indicates that he’s unlikely to trade down and draft a "safe" player like Devin Vassell.

I managed to end the interview this way.

"Finally, I know you’re not going to tell me who you’re leaning towards taking with the #1 pick. So, just blink once if it’s LaMelo Ball, twice if it’s Anthony Edwards, or if you’re going to trade down to the 4-6 range, draft Killian Hayes, and get a 2021 first round pick in return, don’t do anything."

He was very amused and started laughing at that ending.

If that’s what happens, I’m going to say I won him over.

Anyway, I thought I’d share, for what it’s worth."

Posted by HumdingerTV on Sep 21, 2020 | 2:52 PM
------------------------------------

I think he swings for the fence with Edwards. No doubt in my mind.

I don't know whether or not this story is legit, but I don't really have a concrete reason to doubt it. I do believe the logic shared by Rosas in the story makes a lot of sense and even aligns with the moves he made in his first year on the job.

For the record, something had been bugging me all day. That username had sounded familiar, and I was pretty sure it was all legit, but I couldn't place it or verify it. Well, I just placed it and look what I found.....

Read on Twitter

Great. Thanks for putting that up.

[Nick K]

This is interesting, and shows the depth of the two high school classes.

In May, 247 Sports had Edwards as the No. 27 player in the 2020 class. Now you won’t find a scouting service that ranks him outside of the top four for 2019.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2019/1/15/18139281/anthony-edwards-basketball-recruiting-nba-draft

According to Wiki, they say...

"In March 2018, Edwards helped Holy Spirit Preparatory defeat The Heritage School for the Georgia Independent School Association (GISA) Class AAA state championship.[7] He reclassified back to the 2019 class in November 2018 after seeing academic improvement.[5][8] As a result, Edwards rose to become the number one recruit in the Top247 rankings by recruiting website 247Sports.[9] "

Obviously there is a disparity there.