Identity crisis?

[minimus]

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Can injection of TJ/Clark be an antidote in such matchups? Maybe less Conley/Gobert.

[Klomp]

For whatever reason, this team's vibes are always in the tank or just weird at the end of the season.

2022:

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2023:

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2024:

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[minimus]

I will say this....

I think most of our "problems" this year have to do with Ant. However, I personally am not concerned as it is part of the development process for someone who is only 23 and still maturing, as well as someone in his first time as the team's leader. I do think it makes me consider giving him help in a guy like Kevin Durant. I do think a move like that would help more than it would hurt, provided the trade package makes sense.

Here is our rotation:

Edwards
Randle
Gobert
Reid
McDaniels
DDV
NAW
Conley
Clark
TJ Shannon
Rob

Primary ballhandlers, offense initiators: Edwards, Randle, Conley, Rob
Secondary ballhandlers: DDV, NAW
PoA defenders: NAW, McDaniels, Clark
Low man defenders (roamers), weakside defenders: McDaniels, DDV, Clark
3&D: NAW, Clark
Big wings: McDaniels, TJ
Shooters: Edwards, DDV

If I think about offense execution, decision making and ballhandling MIN still is of the weakest teams (Ant+Randle) of top West teams:

OKC: SGA (elite ballhandler) + Jalen Williams (5.3APG) + very solid passing big in Hartenstein
HOU: Sengun (elite ballhandler and passing big, 4.9APG) + veteran comboguard FVV (5.5 APG)
DEN: Jokic + Murray + Gordon
LAL: Doncic + LeBron
MEM: Ja + Bane + Pippen Jr
LAC: Harden
GSW: Curry + Butler + Green
SAC: Sabonis + Monk + DDR

As I can see some team get help from big to run offense (Jokic, Sengung, Sabonis, Green, Hartenstein), some teams use wings to facilitate (JW, Butler, Doncic, LeBron). In this sense MIN is a very limited in terms of options, because Gobert and McDaniels cant be trusted as ballhandlers. Also there are many other factors that play role in overall team offense dynamic:

+ Edwards taking a lot of pull up threes
+ upgrading from Towns to Randle in terms of ballhandling and kick out passes
+ adding DDV ability to stretch the floor
- Conley has declining as pick-and-roll operator, provides zero rim pressure
- loss of Anderson ability to run pick-and-rolls with Gobert and facilitate
- loss of Towns ability to run pick-and-rolls with Gobert and facilitate
- loss of McLaughlin who plays fast but under control as lead ballhandler

Thats why I agree that Edwards shooting a LOT of threes is kind of workaround, not long term solution. He takes threes rather than lifting whole system

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The biggest that I see right now is that this roster lack overall balance:

- many guards, but not enough high ballhandlers and decision makers
- many good to elite spot-up shooters, but five below 6'5": Edwards, DDV, NAW, Rob, Clark. Only Reid is 6'9"
- only wing who can shoot or run plays is 38yo Ingles
- only player who is comfortable (AND efficient) to shoot from midrange is McDaniels
- many guards, but only Conley can play pick-and-roll. Rob is learning
- no backup bigman

What makes the situation difficult is that our management and coaching staff are not helping much to establish balanced, consistent, well rounded team identity. But in my opinion the potential of core of this group is still unbelievably high. Recent developments are:

- Clark is an elite 3&D option
- McDaniels can play PF and be effective
- TJ is wing of NBA rotation
- Dilly tries in defense and has improved as finisher at rim

I expect next season to be very different. TC needs to stabilise both С and PG positions, or make a big move like bringing KD, in other words this season is for many reason a development / soft rebuild step which is not completed yet.

- adding KD? Allows Edwards, McDaniels and other guys such as DDV, Clark to play more their natural roles, take playmaking duties of Edwards
- giving more time TJ, Rob, Clark? Play faster, run in transition
- adding Danny Wolf? More size, more playmaking
- adding a big defensive wing Adou Thiero? More size on wings, more defensive versatility

[minimus]

OKC:
- SGA is an elite MVP-level three-level scorer: mid-range wizard, elite touch around the rim, free throw merchant, decent 3PT shooter, elite decision-maker.
- Jalen Williams is another three-level scorer: effective in the mid-range, can score around the rim, get to the line, shoot decently from three, and pass the ball.
- Hartenstein has great hands, can rebound, hit floaters, pass, and finish around the rim.
- Holmgren can anchor the defense and shoot threes.
- Dort/Wallace are elite 3&D players.

HOU:
- Sengun is an elite post scorer who can also pass.
- Green is a three-level scorer: solid in the mid-range, can score around the rim, get to the line, shoot threes decently, and pass.
- FVV is a veteran combo guard: mid-range scorer, decent from three, solid passer.
- Brooks/Parker/Eason are elite 3&D wings.
- Thompson is an elite defender who can slash and finish around the rim.

LAL:
- LeBron and Doncic are three-level scorers, elite decision-makers, lead ball handlers, and elite passers.

MEM:
- Ja is an elite three-level scorer: mid-range game, explosive at the rim, gets to the line, decent 3PT shooter, solid passer.
- JJJ can anchor the defense and hit threes.
- Bane is another three-level scorer: good in the mid-range, finishes at the rim, gets to the line, shoots well from three, and passes.


Now let’s look at MIN:
- Ant is an elite three-point shooter and dunker, but a mediocre finisher at the rim and passer. He’s one of the worst mid-range scorers and clutch decision-makers, and he’s an unwilling transition scorer.
- Randle is an elite drive-and-kick passer, a good finisher at the rim, and a capable post/mid-range scorer, but he’s an inconsistent and unnatural three-point shooter.
- Gobert can anchor the defense and finish lobs, but struggles to catch low passes, can’t score in post, and is a non-factor as a passer.
- Reid is an elite 3PT shooter by big-man standards and can score in the post and around the rim, but hates mid-range shots and can’t yet be trusted as a facilitator. He’s not a natural pick-and-roll player—more of a pick-and-pop threat, and not a rim runner.
- McDaniels is an elite defender who can slash and score around the rim and mid-range, but is inconsistent from three.
- NAW is an elite 3&D, but can’t be trusted as a facilitator.
- DDV is an elite 3PT shooter, but a mediocre ball handler and passer by point guard standards, and a below-average finisher at the rim.
- Conley is an elite three-point shooter and decision-maker, but can’t score around the rim and does not like mid-range shots.

So, no matter how you slice it, MIN has a very unbalanced, rough-around-the-edges roster. No matter what Finch and his staff do, it’s somewhat expected that MIN will have both great series (like against PHO) and awful ones (like against IND).

There will be moments when just one player who can score from the mid-range could break a zone defense—but MIN won’t have that player on the floor.
There will be moments when one player who can beat a defender off the dribble and finish at the rim could take pressure off Edwards—but MIN won’t have that player on the floor.
There will be moments when one rim-running big who can catch difficult passes and score at the rim could ease Edwards’ burden—but again, MIN won’t have that player on the floor.
There will be moments when DDV or Reid or Edwards catches fire, but again, MIN won’t have ONE player on the floor who is smart and capable enough to deliver timely passes to hot hands.

[minimus]

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An excellent thread about OKC guard heavy offense. This might be one direction MIN roster can be developed.

[minimus]

While I am very happy with both wins, one thing that bugs me is our transition offense. In comparison with DEN our team is pretty bad in transition.

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I think that part of the issue is that our main guys such as McDaniels and Edwards are mediocre at running and finishing in transition. And our best decision maker is 37yo Mike Conley, while Gobert, Reid and Randle rarely make high level outlet passes, like Jokic regularly does.

[Klomp]

I think that part of the issue is that our main guys such as McDaniels and Edwards are mediocre at running and finishing in transition. And our best decision maker is 37yo Mike Conley, while Gobert, Reid and Randle rarely make high level outlet passes, like Jokic regularly does.

They just don't really have a predisposition to get out and run....not the starting five, anyways. But that's part of what makes the second unit effective. They come in and change the tempo.

[minimus]

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I feel like this team is relying more and more on the ability of our guards and wings to protect the rim AND defend in space. I think part of it is a natural process of adjusting to non-rim protectors like Randle and Reid, but also the direction the NBA is heading with a lot of star power on the perimeter. The MIN defense will definitely be tested in the playoffs against big wings like Butler or Luka, an area where ironically guys like Horford and Green make it harder for someone like Luke to score against, which on paper makes mobile bigs like Reid and Randle a good matchup, but it remains a big if.

[minimus]

Watching MIN playoff race the biggest thing I have been concerned about is MIN ability to punish matchups and defend matchups. Last year opponents most favourable matchups were:

- explore Gobert lack of mobility (see Luka Doncic clutch shots). MIN could mix Towns and Anderson as Gobert replacement at C.
- use size advantage against Conley (see Beal in the post against Conley). Altough Conley was solid defensively last season, at 6'0" and 175 lbs he is a target. MIN used Anderson as backup PG
- double and triple team Edwards
- use big wings against lightweight McDaniels and NAW. MIN used Anderson as big wing defender

How these things changed this season:

- both Gobert and Conley continue to decline athletically. Both have been in better shape lately, but it is obvious that both will be hunted in playoffs. This year MIN dont have Towns nor Anderson to play backup С role
- Edwards struggles mightily at beating double teams. This year TC added a secondary ballhandler in Randle and DDV as high volume three point shooter, plus Edwards is not afraid to pull up from 3PT
- MIN dont have a big defensive minded wing behind McDaniels (like Anderson last year), but they have other options to put on PoA (NAW, Clark) which allow McDaniels to play more as roamer. On paper both Randle and Edwards could offer help in defense against such big wings. But they have not showed it yet this season. Their effort in defense is the biggest X-factor for me. If they take care about these matchups against Doncic, LeBron, JW from OKC, Gordon/MPJ, then MIN win chances are much higher

To me this is more about coaching, team chemistry, execution and game plan. MIN cant play like they did last season, they must adjust.

[Klomp]

I finally got around to watching Dane's live show today, and there was a point made that really hit me. This team has taken on the identity of its superstar. Think of all the biggest flaws of the team, they can mostly be directly attributed to Anthony Edwards. Poor clutch performance, taking nights off against inferior competition, issues with the referees. The team follows its leader.

I don't think this is all doom and gloom though. He is 23 years old. I think he will be able to recognize this and use this as fuel he needs to get better at the little things.

[shrink]

I finally got around to watching Dane's live show today, and there was a point made that really hit me. This team has taken on the identity of its superstar. Think of all the biggest flaws of the team, they can mostly be directly attributed to Anthony Edwards. Poor clutch performance, taking nights off against inferior competition, issues with the referees. The team follows its leader.

I don't think this is all doom and gloom though. He is 23 years old. I think he will be able to recognize this and use this as fuel he needs to get better at the little things.

Good post. I think Kyle Anderson and Mike Conley helped the team last year with this as team leaders, but Ant is the superstar, and his charisma simply makes others follow him, for good or bad.

I said in another post that I was finally getting around to watching the Netflix Documentary, “Starting Five.”I had heard people who watched it say negative things about Ant, and they are in there. But I also see a kid that is never late, works hard, and this team really matters to him. If you recall, he had to leave the MIN-SAC game for the birth of his child. After she was born, he’s spent time with her, the game went to overtime, and Ant was still invested in seeing whether his teammates won. Holding his baby, he says, “I lost the battle but won the war.”

He’s immature, but he’s a good kid, hard worker, and cares about this team and his teammates. He makes dumb mistakes, but I think he’s going to overcome them. He’s still 23! Do you guys remember who you were at 23? I do .. immature.

[winforlose]

It is looking like LAL cruises to victory. This probably means we don’t get 3rd. It could still happen, but even with a loss to OKC next game and Houston later, it would take a loss to the Mavs or Blazers to get that 3rd loss.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I finally got around to watching Dane's live show today, and there was a point made that really hit me. This team has taken on the identity of its superstar. Think of all the biggest flaws of the team, they can mostly be directly attributed to Anthony Edwards. Poor clutch performance, taking nights off against inferior competition, issues with the referees. The team follows its leader.

I don't think this is all doom and gloom though. He is 23 years old. I think he will be able to recognize this and use this as fuel he needs to get better at the little things.

Good post. I think Kyle Anderson and Mike Conley helped the team last year with this as team leaders, but Ant is the superstar, and his charisma simply makes others follow him, for good or bad.

I said in another post that I was finally getting around to watching the Netflix Documentary, “Starting Five.”I had heard people who watched it say negative things about Ant, and they are in there. But I also see a kid that is never late, works hard, and this team really matters to him. If you recall, he had to leave the MIN-SAC game for the birth of his child. After she was born, he’s spent time with her, the game went to overtime, and Ant was still invested in seeing whether his teammates won. Holding his baby, he says, “I lost the battle but won the war.”

He’s immature, but he’s a good kid, hard worker, and cares about this team and his teammates. He makes dumb mistakes, but I think he’s going to overcome them. He’s still 23! Do you guys remember who you were at 23? I do .. immature.

Agree with both of you. ANT annoyed me sometimes, he is so young and immature at times. But he works hard and when you got talent as he got, hard work always pay. We are in a good situation where we can beat anyone but can also loose to anyone. PO will be fun !

[FrenchMinnyFan]

It is looking like LAL cruises to victory. This probably means we don’t get 3rd. It could still happen, but even with a loss to OKC next game and Houston later, it would take a loss to the Mavs or Blazers to get that 3rd loss.

Does not not matter for me. West is so packed that all game will be tough.

[shrink]

What's behind the Timberwolves' late-season surge, and is it sustainable?

Minnesota has maintained a top-10 defense basically all season, but the offense has leaped forward down the stretch. At the end of February, the Timberwolves ranked 13th in offensive rating. But since the start of March, they've had the third-best offense, behind only the Clippers and Boston Celtics. Much of that improvement stems from hot shooting in the backcourt: Over that stretch, Mike Conley has made an astonishing 53.2% of his 3-pointers, while Donte DiVincenzo is shooting 43% from deep. Jaden McDaniels (38.2%) and Julius Randle (36.6%) also have boosted their efficiency, surrounding Anthony Edwards with plenty of spacing.

We shouldn't expect Minnesota's role players to stay this hot for the rest of the season; nobody in the NBA makes 53.2% of his 3s over a long span. The Timberwolves also have benefited from a relatively easy slate of opponents during this stretch: In March, they went 10-1 against sub-.500 opponents and 3-2 versus teams with winning records. They're looking better now than how they looked for most of the campaign while struggling to incorporate Randle and DiVincenzo

I was surprised by the 10-1. The negativity of the forum tends to focus on the “ones” so much around here.

[Klomp]

I was surprised by the 10-1. The negativity of the forum tends to focus on the “ones” so much around here.

Not only focusing on the 1, but psycho-analyzing the 10 to the point where I wonder if sub-consciously they believe it was also a 1.

[minimus]

We needed a real PG, we needed a real set of bench creators. Instead we pushed the window up and now we're capped and maxed out.

For me, our crunch time problems have long been about that our best scorers are often our poorest decision makers. Ant is a bit overly lusty for the moment, and while that's led to some heroic moments in the past, it's been a huge problem this year. Randle is also not the type of on-ball guy you trust to not do something insane. We had a similar problem with KAT.

It's a bit the opposite to me. Offensive structure is to make the full 48 minutes high yield. You can draw up nice crunch time plays, and some coaches have a couple moments per season where the play design clearly bamboozled the defense and won the game, but there is also plenty of random chaos in crunch time and that's when you need your best players capable of fast processing and organic reads. That has simply not been the strength of our top scorers.

I dared myself to copy and quote these two posts because I really appreciate the level of conversation here. Thank you, guys!

Also, I feel like these are exactly the same thoughts I’ve been trying to keep in mind when I think about this team.

I’d like to add a few details:
1) the current roster construction has three obvious deficiencies: no starting point guard, no backup center, and no backup big wing. Meanwhile, Minnesota has three players who can play power forward to some degree: Randle, McDaniels, and Reid. And four players who can play shooting guard: Edwards, NAW, DDV, and Clark.

2) Minnesota has the second-highest payroll in the NBA, and I expect them to make some cost-saving moves this summer.

3) While I agree that the team needs a quality point guard, I think a better way to describe the issue is that Minnesota needs more quality decision-makers, regardless of position. The most obvious area for improvement, in my opinion, is the big man rotation. The Wolves don’t run much pick-and-roll, and they also use very few dribble handoffs (DHO), which are a staple in many modern offenses. You could point to Edwards and/or Gobert, Randle, or Reid for that, but one adjustment I’ve noticed lately is how quickly Randle recognizes a set defense and instead of dribbling into it, he moves to the perimeter to initiate a DHO with Edwards.

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UPD: This NBA season, only ONE team currently have an AST/TO ratio less than 1.5. AS A TEAM. this team is Utah Jazz.

Now, my main question is: what’s one basketball decision — in terms of roster construction — that could lead to the next big step? I see two potential paths.

First option: bring in a big-time scorer like Kevin Durant.
Pros and cons have already been discussed on this board, but in short: Minnesota would get a second offensively-minded superstar who can share the scoring load with Edwards — and, even more importantly, stretch the floor.
The biggest concern I see is that both Durant and Booker have struggle against double teams, which could be an issue if the front office wants to pair KD with Edwards — another player who’s still developing as a decision-maker.

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One less obvious upside could be moving McDaniels to a full-time PF role, while Durant handles the majority of outside shooting. That could optimize the roster and scale up McDaniels’ role and production.
But realistically, this would likely require trading both Gobert and Randle.
Still, if the front office can somehow move Gobert and Randle while keeping Reid, you could end up with a unique five-out small-ball unit: Reid – McDaniels – KD – Edwards. That lineup could take the offense to a whole new level.

Second option: draft a mobile big who can serve as a secondary offensive hub and rebounder.
Guys like Danny Wolf and Thomas Sorber are ideal candidates (both are projected late first-round picks).

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The idea here is to add a new axis of stability — a big man who can catch passes, finish at the rim, rebound, and pass. For a big, rebounding and passing are two skills that can multiply each other’s impact when combined in one player.

Think about it:
– If a big grabs a defensive rebound and immediately pushes the ball or makes a quick outlet, you trigger a fast break — one of the most efficient offensive options when the defense isn’t set.
– If he gets an offensive rebound and kicks it out to the perimeter, you often get a wide-open 3 — another high-efficiency play, especially since the defense is scrambling and out of position after the board.
– If he grabs an offensive board and no one is protecting the rim, that’s two easy points — a classic second-chance bucket and a high-efficiency outcome.

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Adding a big who can do both consistently doesn’t just plug a hole — it adds a whole new layer to your offensive identity.

Right now, Minnesota has a four-man big rotation ($92M total), but still lacks versatility:
- Gobert: Can’t catch difficult passes, can’t finish around the rim, no post-up game, can’t defend in space. Great rebounder and rim protector. ($43M)
- Randle: Can pass, finish inside, post up. Below-average defender, shooter, and rim protector. Lacks discipline on the boards. Inconsistent three-point shooter (33% this season) ($33M)
- Reid: Can shoot threes (38.4%), finish at the rim, and post up. Below-average rebounder, defender, and rim protector. Still struggles with positional awareness and falls for fakes. Needs development as a passer. ($14M)
- Garza: Can finish at the rim and post up. Has good hands, is an average rebounder, but a poor defender and inconsistent three-point shooter (27.8% this season). ($2M)

If Randle opts out or gets traded, Reid is re-signed, and Garza’s option is declined — it makes a lot of sense to add someone like Sorber or Wolf. That would create a much more balanced big man rotation in terms of skillset and payroll (~$65M):
- Gobert: Same as above, but at a reduced salary if retained. ($35M)
- Reid: Likely extension in the $20–25M range.
- Sorber/Wolf: Rookie deal. ($4M)

Sorber is projected to be an NBA-caliber rebounder and rim protector with promising passing skills and good mobility (14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.4 APG).
Wolf offers a unique mix of size and mobility. He can shoot, pass, rebound, and even dribble (13.2 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.6 APG).

I’m sure there are other ways to improve the roster — but to me, these are the two paths forward that make sense.

[frankenwolf]

Sorber is projected to be an NBA-caliber rebounder and rim protector with promising passing skills and good mobility (14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.4 APG).
Wolf offers a unique mix of size and mobility. He can shoot, pass, rebound, and even dribble (13.2 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.6 APG).

I’m sure there are other ways to improve the roster — but to me, these are the two paths forward that make sense.

I think this is the best way also. Dilly will get stronger over the summer and will get to work-out with the guys more in the off season. These two things will help everything going forward. Of course, I'd like to see what the Wolves could get in a S&T from Randle.

[shrink]

I think we are missing Kyle Anderson more than we thought.

He provided defense and passing, which, I agree, seem to be two of our biggest issues right now.

[BlacJacMac]

I think we are missing Kyle Anderson more than we thought.

He provided defense and passing, which, I agree, seem to be two of our biggest issues right now.

I think his "coaching" on the floor is even more missed. He was constantly telling Ant and KAT what to do and where to go.