Fun facts and unreal stats

shrink · Post #701 » by **shrink** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 1:26 pm

Klomp wrote:

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Only 13.3% of the Wolves' offensive possessions have come in transition this season (the lowest frequency in the league).

One thing that really drops their transition frequency is an unwillingness to get out in semi-transition. It's plays like this from Jaden McDaniels the Wolves need more of -- to get more transition opportunities, which will lead to more effective overall offense.

Ant simply declines a lot of fast break opportunities.

BlacJacMac · Post #702 » by **BlacJacMac** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 6:06 pm

shrink wrote:
Klomp wrote:

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Only 13.3% of the Wolves' offensive possessions have come in transition this season (the lowest frequency in the league).

One thing that really drops their transition frequency is an unwillingness to get out in semi-transition. It's plays like this from Jaden McDaniels the Wolves need more of -- to get more transition opportunities, which will lead to more effective overall offense.

Ant simply declines a lot of fast break opportunities.

He needs his processing to catch up to his physical abilities. There is no reason a guy with his gifts should play so damn slow.

Post #703 » by **Klomp** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 7:14 pm

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Post #704 » by **Klomp** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 9:39 pm

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BlacJacMac · Post #705 » by **BlacJacMac** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 9:49 pm

Klomp wrote:

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My guess is this exposes a major flaw in Net Rating. Especially the part about NAW being our clear leader.

But Net Rating is a VERY teammate dependent stat.

Post #706 » by **Klomp** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 9:59 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
Klomp wrote:

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My guess is this exposes a major flaw in Net Rating. Especially the part about NAW being our clear leader.

But Net Rating is a VERY teammate dependent stat.

Or perhaps fan perception just needs to change?

Using your example specifically, NAW has one of the worst offensive ratings in the second graphic. I think that lines up pretty accurately with how fans are feeling, because he's not making shots. And the other two regulars are equally struggling too (Conley and Gobert), as the numbers show. That lines up pretty well with the eye test, I'd say.

The problem with the sample size might be that I think the Donte injury throws a wrench in the numbers. NAW was shooting 39% on 3-pointers from Dec. 1 up until the Donte injury, but only 23% (4-17) since. So maybe a window is opening back up for some rotation shifting?

BlacJacMac · Post #707 » by **BlacJacMac** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 10:20 pm

Klomp wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
Klomp wrote:

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My guess is this exposes a major flaw in Net Rating. Especially the part about NAW being our clear leader.

But Net Rating is a VERY teammate dependent stat.

Or perhaps fan perception just needs to change?

Using your example specifically, NAW has one of the worst offensive ratings in the second graphic. I think that lines up pretty accurately with how fans are feeling, because he's not making shots. And the other two regulars are equally struggling too (Conley and Gobert), as the numbers show. That lines up pretty well with the eye test, I'd say.

The problem with the sample size might be that I think the Donte injury throws a wrench in the numbers. NAW was shooting 39% on 3-pointers from Dec. 1 up until the Donte injury, but only 23% (4-17) since. So maybe a window is opening back up for some rotation shifting?

I think its a very flawed stat. Here are our leaders in Net Rating for last year (leaving off anyone who barely suited up for us):

McLaughlin: 7.2
Gobert: 5.2
Morris: 4.5
NAW: 4.3
Ant: 2.8
KAT: -.2
Naz: -1.2
Kyle: -1.7
Conley: -2.6
McDaniels: -5.6

shrink · Post #708 » by **shrink** » Thu Jan 23, 2025 11:52 pm

I am not a stats guy, but I am a formal logic guy. We tend to look at stats like this and say, “this guy caused the team to outscore the opponents.” The stats actually is a correlation, of the events that happened when he was one of ten players in the game.

NAW was playing really well in the beginning of the season, but the bigger deal may have been that while the starters were constantly trying to find rhythm against other starters, NAW was coming in with the bench mob, who was generally better than the other team’s bench. This led to him building up a pretty substantial lead.

But don’t completely dismiss the Randle numbers. He did this among starters, and he has carries a very prominent role when he’s out there. We have enough minutes in the books to give the stat some weight. Eventually, fans are going to have to stop saying things like, “Randle is wrecking us, please ignore that we keep outscoring our opponents when he’s out there.”

Post #709 » by **Klomp** » Fri Jan 24, 2025 5:45 am

shrink wrote:But don’t completely dismiss the Randle numbers. He did this among starters, and he has carries a very prominent role when he’s out there. We have enough minutes in the books to give the stat some weight. Eventually, fans are going to have to stop saying things like, “Randle is wrecking us, please ignore that we keep outscoring our opponents when he’s out there.”

Sometimes, there's a disconnect between the numbers and the eye test, especially when you're not around the team all of the time. I think that's always something that's been the case with Randle's game.

And I think the fact that he's "replacing" a franchise fixture while "blocking" a fan favorite is another big part of the situation unfolding here.

winforlose · Post #710 » by **winforlose** » Fri Jan 24, 2025 7:22 pm

Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:But don’t completely dismiss the Randle numbers. He did this among starters, and he has carries a very prominent role when he’s out there. We have enough minutes in the books to give the stat some weight. Eventually, fans are going to have to stop saying things like, “Randle is wrecking us, please ignore that we keep outscoring our opponents when he’s out there.”

Sometimes, there's a disconnect between the numbers and the eye test, especially when you're not around the team all of the time. I think that's always something that's been the case with Randle's game.

And I think the fact that he's "replacing" a franchise fixture while "blocking" a fan favorite is another big part of the situation unfolding here.

There is some truth to this. But there is also truth to the fit argument. On Canis the first story is about Jaden. The author speculates that ISO ball and your turn my turn is holding Jaden back. He further speculates that one effect of Ant and Randle together is parking Jaden in the corner. Jaden is better not being in the corner and getting to the rim either as part of the flow of the offense or in transition. This is one of many examples of poor fit being an issue with Randle. Another is Randle’s struggles to work with Rudy. Defensively he misses rotations and doesn’t help as much as he could/should with box outs that lead to opponent offensive rebounds. Offensively Randle struggles with judgment on when and where to throw Rudy the ball. Randle would get more love as a free agent than the KAT replacement, and more love if Naz was hurt. That doesn’t make him a good fit.

P.S, a bad fit on the Wolves does not make Randle a bad player. There are plenty of teams who would do better with him than without him.

wolves_89 · Post #711 » by **wolves_89** » Fri Jan 24, 2025 11:11 pm

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I think the biggest reason for the improvement is Randle making a noticable effort to push the pace and move the ball. The other significant difference I've noted is Jaden finding ways to score other than catch-and-shoot 3s.