The Rob Dillingham Thread

[minimus]

Watch on YouTube

[shrink]

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/newsfeed/a-study-on-undersized-guards-in-the-nba-draft-small

[Klomp]

I can’t guarantee what Connelly would do, no one can, but even at the time of their trade for Morris, I said the main part of the deal was to get his Bird rights to retain him. Perhaps people under-estimate Morris because of his time here, but I view Monte Morris as the 25-30th best PG in the league, slightly below Tyus Jones. Conley, Jones, and Morris all play a similar, ball-control, low-turnover style that the Wolves really need, and makes it easier to integrate with the team. He is also a vet that has been through his growing pains, and has started 166 NBA games as a PG. Connelly has shown a desire to bring in players from his past (PJ Dozier, drafted Gobert, Morris). And finally, Morris accepted a spot for the minimum after Connelly drafted Dillingham - MIN could pay him more, and he’d still be on a championship contender.

Now, it’s possible Morris would have left anyway. At the time, it looked like he would be starting for the Suns, versus being a big-minute back up here. As I mentioned with Tyus Jones, we don’t know what any player truly values until his second contract. However, staying in MIN, I would have expected an offer like 2-years, $10 mil, second year player option (less than Dillingham’s rookie scale), and maybe more importantly, Morris would retain his valuable Bird rights if he asked for a trade after one season rehabbing his value for his next contract. There are a lot of reasons for Morris and the Wolves to make a deal, but not if Dillingham is in the picture.

I think it might be important to separate "Denver Morris" from "Washington, Detroit and Minnesota Morris". If we knew for sure we were getting Denver Morris, I think they might have pursued him a little harder and perhaps offered him a bit more money. However, I wonder if the injuries are just more than we truly realize.

It wasn't just the quad injury in camp last year that caused him to miss most of his games with Detroit, it was a hamstring issue once he was here. The year before, the injury issues went from ankle to groin to hamstring to back to groin to ankle. While he played 62 games through all of that, it still adds up as a lot of wear and tear. In 2020-21, he dealt with shoulder, quad and hamstring issues that caused him to miss 25 games while he was still with Denver.

In my best guess, we stayed at a minimum contract level the entire way, simply due to all of the injuries as well as the second apron. He likely wanted to wait to see his options on the market for better money or the chance at a starting job. Once Dillingham was drafted, he probably removed Minnesota from his list entirely even if a minimum offer was still on the table. That's when Minnesota would have moved on to other third-string ballhandler options like PJ Dozier, Joe Ingles and Daishen Nix.

[Klomp]

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/newsfeed/a-study-on-undersized-guards-in-the-nba-draft-small

Definitely an interesting read.

My biggest takeaway:

6-foot-1
Contrary to the 6-foot data, players listed at 6-foot-1 have actually seen the opposite trend in their data. From 2003-2012, 50% (7-of-14) of players listed a 6-foot-1 stuck in the NBA. From 2013-2022, that number increased to a whopping 76.4% (13-of-17).

This still means that, from totality of 2003-2022, 64.5% (20-of-31) of players listed at 6-foot-1 have stuck in the NBA. This is similar to the stick-rate of a late first round pick from 2003-2017, as 66% of players drafted in this range over that time period stuck in the NBA.

What about players who were listed at 6-foot-2?
While the rest of the above data focuses on players shorter than 6-foot-2, this is for good reason. A significant 42 players listed at 6-foot-2 have been drafted since 2003. 26 of have stuck, making for a hit-rate of 61.9%.

From 2003-2012, 17 of the 28 players (60.7%) drafted at 6-foot-2 have stuck in the NBA. That number increases to 64.3% from 2013-2022. However, the latter is on a much smaller sample size of 14 players as nine of the 14 stuck or are on track to stick. Therefore, while the likelihood for players drafted at 6-foot-2 sticking only slightly increased, the number of players at that height drafted decreased by 50% over the same time period -- illustrating either the hesitancy of front offices to even take the risk on a 6-foot-2 guard or the lack of talented 6-foot-2 guards in those draft classes.

----

Dillingham is 6-foot-1 flat, so the heights shorter than that really don't apply here. These numbers show that it's not as negative as you might think.

As the article states:

Another takeaway to consider may be to not count out 6-foot-1 guards for the immediate future, as a number of them are finding a way to create successful careers for themselves. While 50% (7-of-14) stuck from the 2003-2012 draft classes, 76.4% (13-of-17) stuck or are on track to stick from the 2013-2022 draft classes.

Furthermore, when you combine the above takeaway with the overall trend, it's evident there's a clear risk in drafting a player listed under 6-foot-1. Only three guards listed at 6-foot or shorter have stuck since 2013 and the overall stick rate for those drafted since then is 15.8% (3-of-19).

[minimus]

I think it might be important to separate "Denver Morris" from "Washington, Detroit and Minnesota Morris". If we knew for sure we were getting Denver Morris, I think they might have pursued him a little harder and perhaps offered him a bit more money. However, I wonder if the injuries are just more than we truly realize.

It wasn't just the quad injury in camp last year that caused him to miss most of his games with Detroit, it was a hamstring issue once he was here. The year before, the injury issues went from ankle to groin to hamstring to back to groin to ankle. While he played 62 games through all of that, it still adds up as a lot of wear and tear. In 2020-21, he dealt with shoulder, quad and hamstring issues that caused him to miss 25 games while he was still with Denver.

In my best guess, we stayed at a minimum contract level the entire way, simply due to all of the injuries as well as the second apron. He likely wanted to wait to see his options on the market for better money or the chance at a starting job. Once Dillingham was drafted, he probably removed Minnesota from his list entirely even if a minimum offer was still on the table. That's when Minnesota would have moved on to other third-string ballhandler options like PJ Dozier, Joe Ingles and Daishen Nix.

I am actually kind of missing it every times I think about Tyus and Monte: both played for WAS one of the worst NBA teams. While their stats in WAS look mostly good, it is a big difference between DEN/MEM and WAS in terms of team culture, chemistry and overall level. So playing starting and backup PG in WAS is not the same as playing PG position in DEN/MEM and respectively in MIN. Yes, both Tyus and Monte at vetmin is an exceptional value. But both might not be a big improvement over Dilly/Nix, especially Monte. I mean I was kind of thinking that Monte would come here and immediately fit because of familiarity with TC, DEN experience, AST:TO ratio, 3pt % shooting etc. But Monte trade ended up as disappointment. So it is not a sure thing. Same with Tyus. I loved Tyus here especially in comparison with Teague, but it is not given that he would come in MIN and play as he played in MEM. And while TC should do anything to win championship this season, that one-year deal for player who will seek big contract next summer is extremely short-sighted.

As I wrote before: seven months ago MIN didn't have starting PG for 2024-25 season, didn't have backup PG for 2024-25 season. Right now we have Conley for 10 mil for next two seasons and Dilly for 7 mil for next four seasons, NAW for 4.5 mil and Nix for 500k.

It is 22 mil for PG position for four players. It is not ideal, but very promising combination of talent, physical tools and experience. It is not guaranteed that it will work as solution for PG issues, but it indeed represents a realistic hypothesis.

[BlacJacMac]

I don't think Monte helps with one of our biggest problems. Creating easy offense.

He's not a push it in transition guy. And he's not a break down a defense and get his teammates easy looks guy. His assists happen when guys hit their jumpers.

He's a guy who doesn't make mistakes. He makes the simple plays. He won't hurt you, but he's not going to win games for you either.

He's the ideal Flip Saunders PG. He can hit an open shot, he can pass to the open man, he doesn't turn it over.

[minimus]

I don't think Monte helps with one of our biggest problems. Creating easy offense.

He's not a push it in transition guy. And he's not a break down a defense and get his teammates easy looks guy. His assists happen when guys hit their jumpers.

He's a guy who doesn't make mistakes. He makes the simple plays. He won't hurt you, but he's not going to win games for you either.

He's the ideal Flip Saunders PG. He can hit an open shot, he can pass to the open man, he doesn't turn it over.

Yeah, I think it was more "a system issue". Last season Anderson had highest TO%, second guy was Towns and third was Shake Milton. I mean if Edwards sits, at PG we only had guys who were "pass-first" scorers, so Finch had to ask Anderson, Towns and Milton to create for others. Which is NOT their natural role. It is problem by design. So Anderson kind of had to play break down a defense, because he was designated "creator" next to NAW/McLaughlin/Morris

[Klomp]

Note: What I am about to say IS NOT a prediction of who I think he will become as a player.

I see Steph Curry in his game.

[Note30]

Note: What I am about to say IS NOT a prediction of who I think he will become as a player.

I see Steph Curry in his game.

Thanks for the shout out.

[minimus]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cOvu-F06sxs

Someone has already compared Rob with Nick Van Exel... Rob The Bop

[Klomp]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cOvu-F06sxs

Someone has already compared Rob with Nick Van Exel... Rob The Bop

To date, I think Van Exel has been my favorite player comp for Dillingham. Sure it's fun to get hyped about some of the high end modern guys like Kyrie or Trae, but what I really like about the NVE comp is that he was a tempo guard who played with his unique, flashy style in a half-court setting. Irving and Young have never really had to mold their games into a half-court game quite the same way Dillingham is going to be asked to do.

Read on Twitter

[Klomp]

I am going back and watching some summer league highlights.

I think the interesting thing to watch early in the season is the success rate of his passes. He makes some extremely difficult passes. Some people may see them as risky or foolish, but I think there is a basketball IQ that can be easily overlooked, because of the "flash" in his game. I believe he sees passing lanes that many people don't see. Sure, some of those passes can get picked off, but there are many that won't.

I think his dribbling also has the potential to lull defenses to sleep. I think his dribble moves are intentional in how he uses them to set up passing or driving lanes.

Watch on YouTube

[thinktank]

Be nice if Dilly and Miller could continue fostering their connection off the bench this season. Looks like Miller moves well without the ball and Dilly has his eyes and positioning ready to hit him in his hands for very high percentage looks.

[frankenwolf]

I am going back and watching some summer league highlights.

I think the interesting thing to watch early in the season is the success rate of his passes. He makes some extremely difficult passes. Some people may see them as risky or foolish, but I think there is a basketball IQ that can be easily overlooked, because of the "flash" in his game. I believe he sees passing lanes that many people don't see. Sure, some of those passes can get picked off, but there are many that won't.

I think his dribbling also has the potential to lull defenses to sleep. I think his dribble moves are intentional in how he uses them to set up passing or driving lanes.

Watch on YouTube

I do see some of Iverson in his game. Most of his passes were the right read at the right time, although there were a couple that he got lucky on, one of which should have been a foul on his defender. I know it was just SL, but he did look good.

[Klomp]

It's so funny to go back during the season and see respected sources talk him up as the potential top prospect, and then see teams at the top of the draft take swings on guys with lower ceilings.

Read on Twitter

[Pointgod]

It's so funny to go back during the season and see respected sources talk him up as the potential top prospect, and then see teams at the top of the draft take swings on guys with lower ceilings.

Read on Twitter

I think his size is could be a problem, especially on the defensive end.

[Klomp]

I think his size is could be a problem, especially on the defensive end.

Maybe so. In all actuality, it was probably just the wrong group of teams at the top of the draft.

1. Atlanta: Not going to draft a PG at No. 1 with Trae Young (and at that time Dejounte Murray) on the team.
2. Washington: You could've made an argument.
3. Houston: You could've made an argument. Preferred a different guard.
4. San Antonio: You could've made an argument. Preferred a different guard.
5. Detroit: Probably not going to draft a PG at No. 5 with Cade Cunningham on the team (but you could've made an argument).
6. Charlotte: Probably not going to draft a PG at No. 6 with LaMelo Ball on the team.
7. Portland Probably not going to draft a PG at No. 7 with their group of guards on the team.

There are always reasons for someone to be talked into letting a prospect slide. But it doesn't always mean it's the right choice.

I can't quite put my finger on it, but there is something abut this kid that just tells me he is going to be special. He has an "it factor." It's the same sort of thing that I quickly saw in Zach LaVine in 2015. He too was undersized, at just 180 pounds for someone 6'5". He didn't really fit the college game, and people thought he had all flash but no substance. He was a risky pick, a home run or strikeout pick. There were a handful of guards chosen ahead of him because they were deemed safer, such as Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, Nik Stauskas and Elfrid Payton. Most people here wanted Gary Harris, and were furious when Saunders picked the more unproven LaVine.

[Folklore]

Watch on YouTube

[thinktank]

Most people here wanted Gary Harris, and were furious when Saunders picked the more unproven LaVine.

I loved Lavine and I love Dilly.

My scouting takes are probably my strongest NBA fan attribute (loved Draymond, hated Simmons, hated Hayes, loved Haliburton, hated Okafor, was calling for TSJ to be picked, etc.). Regarding draft picks, I'm right way more often than I'm wrong.

[KGdaBom]

Most people here wanted Gary Harris, and were furious when Saunders picked the more unproven LaVine.

I loved Lavine and I love Dilly.

My scouting takes are probably my strongest NBA fan attribute (loved Draymond, hated Simmons, hated Hayes, loved Haliburton, hated Okafor, was calling for TSJ to be picked, etc.). Regarding draft picks, I'm right way more often than I'm wrong.

So let it be written.
So let it be done.