Trade Talk (Part 16): Early Season Anxiety Edition

[minimus]

If we want to trade TSJ...

Randle, DET FRP and TSJ (separate trade) for Cameron Johnson and Dayron Sharpe.

Why for BRO: they get FRP, and can shop Randle contract next season, they get a young player in TSJ.

Why for MIN: we get depth at C and wings.

Gobert/Reid/Sharpe + Garza
Reid/Johnson/Miller + Ingles
McDaniels/NAW/Minott
Edwards/DDV + Clarke
Conley/Dillingham/NAW + Nix

In this scenario there is one wrinkle that I find interesting: if Johnson continues his strong play, I feel like it can be a huge boost for our low volume shooting wings such as McDaniels and Minott, as they both can play more natural role of 3&D players next to high volume shooter.

And I like Sharpe physicality.

[frankenwolf]

Don't ask me how I came up with this. Probably doesn't make any sense! Just wanted an excuse to talk some sports and say Happy New Year! Here is your typical 4-team, 22-player trade.

Chi OUT: Ball, Vucevic, Smith, Craig, Phillips, '25 FRP
Chi IN: Randle, DD, H. Jones, Alvarado, Len, '25 FRP (Mil), '27 SRP (Chi)
WHY? Excellent value coming in. Tons of depth.
(1st apron hard-capped)
White-Dosunmu-Lavine-DD-Giddey-Buzelis-H. Jones-Williams-Randle-Len-Carter-THT

NOP OUT: Ingram, Murray, H. Jones, Hawkins, Alvarado, '25 FRP (Mil), '25 FRP (NOP), '27 FRP (NOP), '27 SRP (Chi)
NOP IN: Fox, Vucevic, Huerter, Lyles, TSJ, Minott, Garza, Phillips
WHY? Complete tear-down. Ingram not getting much return. Auditions for Fox and company. Speeding up the rebuild.
(1st apron hard-capped)
Fox-McCollum-Huerter-Murphy III-Zion-Vucevic-Lyles-bunch of young guys

SAC OUT: Fox, Huerter, K. Murray, Lyles, Len, J-Mac
SAC IN: Ingram, Murray, Conley, Craig, '25 FRP (NOP), '27 FRP (NOP)
WHY? SAC is lost in the west. Trying something new and a chance to sign Ingram if it works out. Murray + picks if nothing else works out. Draft a PG and have Mike as player/coach.
(1st apron hard-capped)
Murray-Monk-Derozan-Ingram-Sabonis core with plenty of valuable picks in immediate future

MN OUT: Randle, DD, Conley, TSJ, Garza, Minott
MN IN: Ball, Smith, K. Murray, Hawkins, J-Mac, '25 FRP (Chi)
WHY? Ship out Randle and DD for max value. Resign NAW and NAZ. See how Ball works. New scenery for K. Murray. Smith is nice. Always liked Hawkins. Teens draft pick to boot while getting into 1st apron. We hold on to Jaden as well, while giving our young prospects a better chance elsewhere. Find and/or draft a cheap backup C with next move(s).
(1st apron)

Ball-NAW-RD-J-Mac
ANT-NAW-Hawkins
Jaden-Murray
Naz-Smith-Jaden-Miller
Rudy-Smith-Naz-Miller

Holy cow, Moss! Do you stay up nights dreaming of these impossible trades? I don't know that any of these teams would really consider this. OTOH, I'm not an NBA GM

[BlacJacMac]

Remember, if you want to trade Conley, he has to be OK with it.

[shrink]

If we want to trade TSJ...

Randle, DET FRP and TSJ (separate trade) for Cameron Johnson and Dayron Sharpe.

Why for BRO: they get FRP, and can shop Randle contract next season, they get a young player in TSJ.

Why for MIN: we get depth at C and wings.

Gobert/Reid/Sharpe + Garza
Reid/Johnson/Miller + Ingles
McDaniels/NAW/Minott
Edwards/DDV + Clarke
Conley/Dillingham/NAW + Nix

In this scenario there is one wrinkle that I find interesting: if Johnson continues his strong play, I feel like it can be a huge boost for our low volume shooting wings such as McDaniels and Minott, as they both can play more natural role of 3&D players next to high volume shooter.

And I like Sharpe physicality.

I like the idea, but it feels like a three-teamer. Send the productive Randle to a team with playoff ambitions for rebuilding pieces, and we likely wouldn’t have to give up the DET pick.

My question would be whether the deal gives us enough financial wiggle room to keep Naz and NAW? Cam makes $20.5 and $22.5, and Sharpe would need a new deal if he performs on his expiring.

Btw, I just realized Cam was originally our draft pick. He was the #11 when Rosas traded #11 and Saric to move up to #6, hoping to get CLE to trade us Darius Garland. Sadly ended up with Culver.

[cmoss84]

Don't ask me how I came up with this. Probably doesn't make any sense! Just wanted an excuse to talk some sports and say Happy New Year! Here is your typical 4-team, 22-player trade.

Chi OUT: Ball, Vucevic, Smith, Craig, Phillips, '25 FRP
Chi IN: Randle, DD, H. Jones, Alvarado, Len, '25 FRP (Mil), '27 SRP (Chi)
WHY? Excellent value coming in. Tons of depth.
(1st apron hard-capped)
White-Dosunmu-Lavine-DD-Giddey-Buzelis-H. Jones-Williams-Randle-Len-Carter-THT

NOP OUT: Ingram, Murray, H. Jones, Hawkins, Alvarado, '25 FRP (Mil), '25 FRP (NOP), '27 FRP (NOP), '27 SRP (Chi)
NOP IN: Fox, Vucevic, Huerter, Lyles, TSJ, Minott, Garza, Phillips
WHY? Complete tear-down. Ingram not getting much return. Auditions for Fox and company. Speeding up the rebuild.
(1st apron hard-capped)
Fox-McCollum-Huerter-Murphy III-Zion-Vucevic-Lyles-bunch of young guys

SAC OUT: Fox, Huerter, K. Murray, Lyles, Len, J-Mac
SAC IN: Ingram, Murray, Conley, Craig, '25 FRP (NOP), '27 FRP (NOP)
WHY? SAC is lost in the west. Trying something new and a chance to sign Ingram if it works out. Murray + picks if nothing else works out. Draft a PG and have Mike as player/coach.
(1st apron hard-capped)
Murray-Monk-Derozan-Ingram-Sabonis core with plenty of valuable picks in immediate future

MN OUT: Randle, DD, Conley, TSJ, Garza, Minott
MN IN: Ball, Smith, K. Murray, Hawkins, J-Mac, '25 FRP (Chi)
WHY? Ship out Randle and DD for max value. Resign NAW and NAZ. See how Ball works. New scenery for K. Murray. Smith is nice. Always liked Hawkins. Teens draft pick to boot while getting into 1st apron. We hold on to Jaden as well, while giving our young prospects a better chance elsewhere. Find and/or draft a cheap backup C with next move(s).
(1st apron)

Ball-NAW-RD-J-Mac
ANT-NAW-Hawkins
Jaden-Murray
Naz-Smith-Jaden-Miller
Rudy-Smith-Naz-Miller

Holy cow, Moss! Do you stay up nights dreaming of these impossible trades? I don't know that any of these teams would really consider this. OTOH, I'm not an NBA GM

Live in CA and on winter break as a teacher. Pot and spotrac are a wonderful combination.

[cmoss84]

Ball and Smith for Julius a bit less muddy

[cmoss84]

Remember, if you want to trade Conley, he has to be OK with it.

I truly hate involving him in my trades, and would be bittersweet to see him leave. But maybe certain trades would bring about better situations for both?

[BlacJacMac]

Remember, if you want to trade Conley, he has to be OK with it.

I truly hate involving him in my trades, and would be bittersweet to see him leave. But maybe certain trades would bring about better situations for both?

I think he and his wife really like Minnesota. And I doubt moving 3 kids under the age of 8 to SAC with the roster they'd have after this trade would be appealing to him.

[winforlose]

Mike is a leader on this team, a mentor to Ant, and presumably quite close to Rudy. He could have made more money elsewhere and choose to stay at a discount. I would be shocked if we moved him, especially after Rudy took a haircut and given that we want both NAW and Naz to stay at a possibly depressed rate (not saying major underpay, but maybe they don’t take the highest offer from another team. Giving up a couple million to stay in a city and living situation you like with teammates you know and like has some value to some guys. Think of it more like an X factor than deal maker/breaker.) Mike really is a wolf till the end.

[winforlose]

Lonzo’s stats from his last 10 games. This is copy pasted from espn.com, link below.

SPLITS GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
L10 8 20.4 27.1 25.0 80.0 4.3 3.8 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 5.5

This is not a guy you want on a contending rotation. Especially in your weakest position.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball

P..S the copy paste didn’t lineup well, count it out or use the link for better view.

[BlacJacMac]

Lonzo’s stats from his last 10 games. This is copy pasted from espn.com, link below.

SPLITS GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
L10 8 20.4 27.1 25.0 80.0 4.3 3.8 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 5.5

This is not a guy you want on a contending rotation. Especially in your weakest position.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball

P..S the copy paste didn’t lineup well, count it out or use the link for better view.

You've convinced me...I don't want him on my Fantasy Basketball Team.

But dude drives winning.

On court ORtg:
Team: 116.0, Opponent: 110.8

Off court ORtg:
Team: 112.6, Opponent: 117.6

Dude is a defensive monster, a great rebounder for a PG and would be, by far, the best passer on the team.

The only thing that hasn't come around is his shot (38, 38, 42 from 3 on high volume his last 3 years). Not surprising since he hasn't played in 2 years.

But even without his shot, he's a hugely positive player on the court, and with him being a FA after the year, we'd get to see first hand his progress and then decide if he's worth resigning.

[winforlose]

Lonzo’s stats from his last 10 games. This is copy pasted from espn.com, link below.

SPLITS GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
L10 8 20.4 27.1 25.0 80.0 4.3 3.8 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 5.5

This is not a guy you want on a contending rotation. Especially in your weakest position.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball

P..S the copy paste didn’t lineup well, count it out or use the link for better view.

You've convinced me...I don't want him on my Fantasy Basketball Team.

But dude drives winning.

On court ORtg:
Team: 116.0, Opponent: 110.8

Off court ORtg:
Team: 112.6, Opponent: 117.6

Dude is a defensive monster, a great rebounder for a PG and would be, by far, the best passer on the team.

The only thing that hasn't come around is his shot (38, 38, 42 from 3 on high volume his last 3 years). Not surprising since he hasn't played in 2 years.

But even without his shot, he's a hugely positive player on the court, and with him being a FA after the year, we'd get to see first hand his progress and then decide if he's worth resigning.

Talk to me about fit. How does Lonzo and Rudy improve on Lonzo and Mike. Or is Lonzo the backup that cannot play with Rudy? How does Lonzo fit in with Jaden and Rudy, or are we moving Jaden out of the starting 5? Is Lonzo good enough at defense and big enough to replace what Jaden gives you?

Talk to me about what goes right on the Bulls with him that goes wrong without him? Who is he playing with over there. How many non shooters or struggling shooters?

Speaking of the last 2 years, link me some articles that say his knee is fully healed and he can play 35-40 MPG without a problem? Unless you are gonna bet on Mike being healthy in the playoff or Dilly being ready? Randle must return a starting PG and put Mike on the bench. Anything less and this team is *****d.

As for Smith, I don’t know his game well enough to know how he fits with our rotation. Tell me more please?

[BlacJacMac]

Lonzo’s stats from his last 10 games. This is copy pasted from espn.com, link below.

SPLITS GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
L10 8 20.4 27.1 25.0 80.0 4.3 3.8 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 5.5

This is not a guy you want on a contending rotation. Especially in your weakest position.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball

P..S the copy paste didn’t lineup well, count it out or use the link for better view.

You've convinced me...I don't want him on my Fantasy Basketball Team.

But dude drives winning.

On court ORtg:
Team: 116.0, Opponent: 110.8

Off court ORtg:
Team: 112.6, Opponent: 117.6

Dude is a defensive monster, a great rebounder for a PG and would be, by far, the best passer on the team.

The only thing that hasn't come around is his shot (38, 38, 42 from 3 on high volume his last 3 years). Not surprising since he hasn't played in 2 years.

But even without his shot, he's a hugely positive player on the court, and with him being a FA after the year, we'd get to see first hand his progress and then decide if he's worth resigning.

Talk to me about fit. How does Lonzo and Rudy improve on Lonzo and Mike. Or is Lonzo the backup that cannot play with Rudy? How does Lonzo fit in with Jaden and Rudy, or are we moving Jaden out of the starting 5? Is Lonzo good enough at defense and big enough to replace what Jaden gives you?

Talk to me about what goes right on the Bulls with him that goes wrong without him? Who is he playing with over there. How many non shooters or struggling shooters?

Speaking of the last 2 years, link me some articles that say his knee is fully healed and he can play 35-40 MPG without a problem? Unless you are gonna bet on Mike being healthy in the playoff or Dilly being ready? Randle must return a starting PG and put Mike on the bench. Anything less and this team is *****d.

As for Smith, I don’t know his game well enough to know how he fits with our rotation. Tell me more please?

He fits because he's a legit PG. Is he going to play 35-40 MPG this year? Absolutely not. But he looks like he's ramping up towards 25 MPG. Maybe by the end of the year, he's closer to 30. He hasn't missed any time due to his knee since his comeback this year. Its a gamble, but an exciting one - and there is no commitment past this year.

But even 25 MPG of elite PG play would be a huge boon to this team. He's a wizard in transition - something this team desperately needs, and he's not a pound the ball PG in the halfcourt. He also doesn't turn it over much. He makes fast decisions and moves the ball. He's ideal next to Ant.

At 6'6 with a 6'9 wingspan, he can guard PGs through smaller PFs, so he's very switchable and you can play him with Dilly in lineups. He rebounds like a forward.

Smith is an athletic 6'9 (7'2 wingspan) PF/C. He's a monster rebounder that has to be defended out to the arc, so he can play next to Rudy or Naz. He's not a great defender yet, but he has the tools and is just 24 years-old. He makes 9 and 9.4M over the next 2 years.

[Klomp]

I think it's more likely that Conley negotiates a buyout and retires after the season than it is that he is traded.

[Klomp]

Speaking of the last 2 years, link me some articles that say his knee is fully healed and he can play 35-40 MPG without a problem? Unless you are gonna bet on Mike being healthy in the playoff or Dilly being ready? Randle must return a starting PG and put Mike on the bench. Anything less and this team is *****d.

Do some math for me a second.....what do you get for a PG rotation if you play Conley 25 minutes and Ball 25 minutes?

[Klomp]

But even 25 MPG of elite PG play would be a huge boon to this team. He's a wizard in transition - something this team desperately needs, and he's not a pound the ball PG in the halfcourt. He also doesn't turn it over much. He makes fast decisions and moves the ball. He's ideal next to Ant.

This is the biggest thing Ball can give this team. He is what Conley has given us up to this year, but the transition piece is huge because a lot of NBA players need motivation to get out and run. This was one of the biggest things Rubio used to give this team for so many years. Guys aren't going to sprint down the court in every possession if they know the guard is just going to walk up the ball to set up a half-court set. Ant and Jaden are two of the biggest culprits of this. Randle has this potential to get out and start the break, but to this point just hasn't run consistently enough so guys aren't consistently running (hopefully the second unit lineup is shifting this).

That being said, I'm not 100% convinced I do that trade. I still need a bit more I think. But it's a starting point for what we should be looking for.

[BlacJacMac]

But even 25 MPG of elite PG play would be a huge boon to this team. He's a wizard in transition - something this team desperately needs, and he's not a pound the ball PG in the halfcourt. He also doesn't turn it over much. He makes fast decisions and moves the ball. He's ideal next to Ant.

This is the biggest thing Ball can give this team. He is what Conley has given us up to this year, but the transition piece is huge because a lot of NBA players need motivation to get out and run. This was one of the biggest things Rubio used to give this team for so many years. Guys aren't going to sprint down the court in every possession if they know the guard is just going to walk up the ball to set up a half-court set. Ant and Jaden are two of the biggest culprits of this. Randle has this potential to get out and start the break, but to this point just hasn't run consistently enough so guys aren't consistently running (hopefully the second unit lineup is shifting this).

This is where Ant really frustrates me. Despite having "God-Tier" athleticism, he never seems willing to push the ball in transition, or even hurry it up the court. He's a slow decision-maker/processor. He doesn't move well off the ball - and on ball, he's less likely to see cutters going to the basket than guys standing outside the arc.

I think a lot of it is he was late to basketball and I don't think he really has strong instincts. He plays the game in "real time" and doesn't see 2 plays ahead, or the play that leads to the play.

[BlacJacMac]

I think it's more likely that Conley negotiates a buyout and retires after the season than it is that he is traded.

I agree. I think if things don't turn around for him pretty soon, that's exactly what will happen.

[winforlose]

Speaking of the last 2 years, link me some articles that say his knee is fully healed and he can play 35-40 MPG without a problem? Unless you are gonna bet on Mike being healthy in the playoff or Dilly being ready? Randle must return a starting PG and put Mike on the bench. Anything less and this team is *****d.

Do some math for me a second.....what do you get for a PG rotation if you play Conley 25 minutes and Ball 25 minutes?

What makes you think Mike is gonna play 25 MPG every night? You have one contract that you can move with enough money to get things done. That is one bullet in the chamber. If you use it on Lonzo he is the starting PG and Mike is the backup. Can Lonzo play playoff minutes, or are you gonna put that on Mike? Can Lonzo play with Rudy if both are non shooters? We have seen the issues of lack of floor spacing have on this team, is Lonzo gonna be respected behind the line shooting under 30%?.

Let’s talk about risk. If this trade fails you lose Ant. This is true because there is no way to acquire another starting quality PG without the Randle contract. You have an over the tax team with no trade assets, you could lose NAW and Naz and have multiple major roster holes needing to be back filled with young players who may or not be up to it, and Rudy aging away all the while. You cannot afford to miss on this deal, and your only reason to make it is that Lonzo is expiring and we can walk away if he doesn’t work out. That same argument cuts the other way, if he doesn’t work or does and wants to much money or just prefers to leave, then we are doomed. I am sorry, but Lonzo is a bad fit with Jaden, a bad fit with Rudy, and a health concern to boot. I wouldn’t touch this with a 20 foot pole.

[winforlose]

I think it's more likely that Conley negotiates a buyout and retires after the season than it is that he is traded.

I agree. I think if things don't turn around for him pretty soon, that's exactly what will happen.

Says who? Is this based on any actual evidence or is just the notion that Mike doesn’t like making Millions? Mike is very unlikely to be traded, but he also has no incentive to walk away from his deal next year at anything less than his full number. Plus, if Mike does leave and we win a ring Mike misses out. That is worst case for him, best case under your scenario is he gives back money (at a level he is unlikely to ever earn again,) just to not have to be in basketball shape.