Johnson or Cousins? Vote!

[BrooklynBulls]

What the hell makes Wes Johnson some sort of knock-down 3 point shooter? He was only a GOOD shooter in college. 41.5% is pretty sparkly, but his 1.5 makes in 35 minutes a game is completely unremarkable.

Adam Morrison hit 2.1 a game at his last year at Gonzaga, at 42.8%. How knockdown a 3 point shooter is he in the NBA? He's not. Because 3 extra feet, and more athletic defenses bother all but the most elite of shooters.

Johnson can certainly make another step forward with his shooting. Of course he can- players generally improve it as they go on in the league. But to act like he already has one elite NBA skill in shooting is just not true.

If you want a guy who has one directly translatable thing he's nearly a lock to do "really well," it Cousins with his rebounding.

[AQuintus]

What the hell makes Wes Johnson some sort of knock-down 3 point shooter? He was only a GOOD shooter in college. 41.5% is pretty sparkly, but his 1.5 makes in 35 minutes a game is completely unremarkable.

I think the whole "knock-down" shooter thing came about because he has a pretty shooting stroke.

The funny thing, though, is there are all sorts of reports from his workout with the Wolves talking about how good a shooter his is, but in the only video of the actual workout (during is interview with Jonah Ballow), he misses almost all of his 3-point attempts.

[Krapinsky]

What the hell makes Wes Johnson some sort of knock-down 3 point shooter? He was only a GOOD shooter in college. 41.5% is pretty sparkly, but his 1.5 makes in 35 minutes a game is completely unremarkable.

I think the whole "knock-down" shooter thing came about because he has a pretty shooting stroke.

The funny thing, though, is there are all sorts of reports from his workout with the Wolves talking about how good a shooter his is, but in the only video of the actual workout (during is interview with Jonah Ballow), he misses almost all of his 3-point attempts.

I counted. He made 11 of 20 in the video. That's not very good for being unguarded in an open gym, but that's not missing all of them either. Regardless, there's three seasons of tape on him. I don't think one day shooting in an open gym had much of an impact on their assessment.

Keep in mind that he played a lot of PF at 'cuse, which probably has something to do with him not attempting a lot of threes.

[Krapinsky]

What the hell makes Wes Johnson some sort of knock-down 3 point shooter? He was only a GOOD shooter in college. 41.5% is pretty sparkly, but his 1.5 makes in 35 minutes a game is completely unremarkable.

Adam Morrison hit 2.1 a game at his last year at Gonzaga, at 42.8%. How knockdown a 3 point shooter is he in the NBA? He's not. Because 3 extra feet, and more athletic defenses bother all but the most elite of shooters.

Johnson can certainly make another step forward with his shooting. Of course he can- players generally improve it as they go on in the league. But to act like he already has one elite NBA skill in shooting is just not true.

If you want a guy who has one directly translatable thing he's nearly a lock to do "really well," it Cousins with his rebounding.

He was up around 50% for awhile but then he had that wrist injury and his % took a dive based on a few poor shooting games.

[BrooklynBulls]

That's the problem with sample size. He took 140 threes. That's not a ton. Even if his percentages were better, volume is particularly important too. His last season at ISU, his volume was much higher per minute, but it made his percentage much lower. For a guy his age, his percentages and volume are not beyond question. Although he has a pretty stroke.

[AQuintus]

I counted. He made 11 of 20 in the video. That's not very good for being unguarded in an open gym, but that's not missing all of them either.

I obviously didn't count. I based it off of memory, and I remembered at least the opening segment where he was moving to his right and he missed like 3 of 4 and then moved to the other side and missed a few more (note: this is also based off of my memory and is probably wrong).

[shangrila]

What the hell makes Wes Johnson some sort of knock-down 3 point shooter? He was only a GOOD shooter in college. 41.5% is pretty sparkly, but his 1.5 makes in 35 minutes a game is completely unremarkable.

I think the whole "knock-down" shooter thing came about because he has a pretty shooting stroke.

The funny thing, though, is there are all sorts of reports from his workout with the Wolves talking about how good a shooter his is, but in the only video of the actual workout (during is interview with Jonah Ballow), he misses almost all of his 3-point attempts.

I counted. He made 11 of 20 in the video. That's not very good for being unguarded in an open gym, but that's not missing all of them either. Regardless, there's three seasons of tape on him. I don't think one day shooting in an open gym had much of an impact on their assessment.

Keep in mind that he played a lot of PF at 'cuse, which probably has something to do with him not attempting a lot of threes.

He was struggling with an injury during the workout here, so I'm not surprised he'd miss a few. Anything foot related can easily screw with your shooting rhythm.

[TheProdigy]

After ranting and raving about Wes Johnson yesterday, I've come to the conclusion that I will not be disappointed with Johnson or Cousins. There is a large gap in talent after the first 5 picks(Wall, Turner, Favors, Cousins, Johnson). Johnson fits the team better as it stands now, and unlike many people on this board I believe that he is capable of being an all-star. Cousins has all-star potential as well. The bottom line is who would you rather have? Cousins/Gay or Darko/Johnson. Darko is iffy about coming back to the league as it is, and if we draft a player at #4 that plays his position then it's very unlikely he comes back.

I would rather have Cousins and Gay over Darko and Johnson, but will we be able to entice Gay to come here without overpaying big time? I have my doubts, but that is the best case scenario.

This lineup is absolutely sick.
Cousins(#4)/Hollins
Love/Sanders(#16)
Gay/Brewer
Igoudala/Ellington
Flynn/Sessions/(Rubio)
Assuming we trade Jefferson for Igoudala.

We have the pieces to build an amazing team. Let's see what the Kahnman has up his sleeve.

[BigKahuna]

Neither one.

This team needs a cornerstone talent to build with, without red flags, and that isn't one dimensional. Work your ass off to make a deal Khan.

[john2jer]

For a supposed 3pt sniper, Johnson leaves a bit to be desired. Freshman year he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Sophomore year he chucked and chucked, yet hit at a rate that would NOT even be considered AVERAGE in the NBA. Then after spending a year in the gym shooting and working out he had a good shooting season, but most of it was off catch and shoot. Very rarely was he able create his own shot off the bounce.

Think Demar DeRozan with better range, weaker on-ball man defense, oh and about 3 extra birthdays.

I'd take the "kid" if we're able to swing a trade to pick up Turner/Favors/Cousins first, or if we slide back and pick up and additional asset. Downgrading to Randolph from Love isn't picking up an asset.

[Foye]

What the hell makes Wes Johnson some sort of knock-down 3 point shooter? He was only a GOOD shooter in college. 41.5% is pretty sparkly, but his 1.5 makes in 35 minutes a game is completely unremarkable.

Adam Morrison hit 2.1 a game at his last year at Gonzaga, at 42.8%. How knockdown a 3 point shooter is he in the NBA? He's not. Because 3 extra feet, and more athletic defenses bother all but the most elite of shooters.

Johnson can certainly make another step forward with his shooting. Of course he can- players generally improve it as they go on in the league. But to act like he already has one elite NBA skill in shooting is just not true.

If you want a guy who has one directly translatable thing he's nearly a lock to do "really well," it Cousins with his rebounding.

This.

I like Johnson, really. BUT NOT with the 4th pick of an NBA DRAFT.

I'd consider a guy with Johnson's skillset at position #7 (also considering his age).
The only reason why he stays in that #4-5 range (to me) seems like that he's the best wing available in this years draft behind Turner and we are so desperate in need of wings.
Cousins does have a lot more talent than Johnson. That's why I would pick him.
I would doubt that Sacramento picks Johnson #5 if they don't trade up with us for Cousins.

[cpfsf]

I used to believe that the draft started with Sacramento because the draft order was already set in stone with Wall, Turner, Favors, and Cousins being drafted in that order, but now I'm not so sure anymore.

[prefuse73]

I will have to go with Cousins.

Paul George carrys a similar skill set and 3 years younger. So is Wes Johnson Now > Paul George (or Xavier Henry) 3 years from now.

Draft Cousins and figure out the rest from there. An in shape Darko would actually fit well with Cousins as they split center minutes and they could play very well on the floor together as Darko does with Big Al. I think Love would eventually have to go as well in favor of a Athletic 4 this will fit better with Rubio ball, but since they are both are young, we can try it out for at least 1 year.

We need to build a strong core of young guys that can grow and hit their primes together. Cousins/Love/George/Rubio is loaded with potential. Swap love with Favors and it could get even more intersting.

[horaceworthy]

Now, I'm not sure if this is a valid comparison, but I certainly see some comparisons. Look back 20 years to the 1990 NBA Draft. Anyone see similarities between Cousins/Johnson and Coleman/Scott?

Coleman was talented, but clearly had some personal and character issues he had to deal with. Meanwhile, while Scott might not have been as talented as Coleman, he was a vital piece of the Magic's success.

Coleman was only on one team with more than 50 wins in a season, in his final season in the league with the Pistons. He played 5 games that year, Darko Milicic played 37. That was also only the 3rd season his teams advanced past the first round of the playoffs, and first time past the conference semifinals. By contrast, Scott was on four 50 win teams and played in the Finals.

Look ahead to now. Cousins is CLEARLY the more talented player. However, there are still many concerns around him off the court. While Johnson might not be as well-rounded as Cousins, he does one thing really well....three point shooting.

New Jersey drafted Coleman because they felt he was the best player on the board. But did they do good enough on their homework, looking at other areas of his life? I'm not saying they should've taken Scott #1, but I don't think its a coincidence that Scott had the better career.

Thoughts?

God bless you for trying. I think you missed the mark by a good amount, but I appreciate the effort.

[horaceworthy]

For a supposed 3pt sniper, Johnson leaves a bit to be desired. Freshman year he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Sophomore year he chucked and chucked, yet hit at a rate that would NOT even be considered AVERAGE in the NBA. Then after spending a year in the gym shooting and working out he had a good shooting season, but most of it was off catch and shoot. Very rarely was he able create his own shot off the bounce.

I don't think he has much trouble creating his own shot, largely due to his high release combined with the elevation he gets when he takes it. Problem is he struggles to get to the rim in the halfcourt, since his handle isn't good enough to change direction and sift through traffic. If a seam's there he can exploit it with a couple straight line dribbles, and his handle's acceptable in transition when he has more room to operate. For the most part, though, he's an uber-athlete that has to create like Wally did in the halfcourt, by working the jab series and only using one or two bounces.

[Klomp]

Paul George carrys a similar skill set and 3 years younger. So is Wes Johnson Now > Paul George (or Xavier Henry) 3 years from now.

Remember the Josh Howard v Ndudi Ebi debate?

[AQuintus]

Here's a list of all the people who were 23 or older when they joined the NBA: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=WrID7

Looking through that list it seems that overwhelmingly the people that were stars as rookies remained stars their whole careers, and the people that were role players as rookies remained role players their whole careers.

That right there is the main reason that I don't want Johnson. He projects to be a solid role player (15 points, 6 rebound guy) immediately, but due to his age, it's unlikely that he'll be able to grow to be anything more than a solid role player.

Young guys like Favors and Cousins, on the other hand, will probably start out as lower level role players (10 points, 5 rebounds), but will over time develop into starts (20+ points, 10+ rebounds).

Edit:

For comparison here's the list of guys that started out as 18 or 19 year old rookies: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=dp8Af

[skorff26]

Here's a list of all the people who were 23 or older when they joined the NBA: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=WrID7

Looking through that list it seems that overwhelmingly the people that were stars as rookies remained stars their whole careers, and the people that were role players as rookies remained role players their whole careers.

That right there is the main reason that I don't want Johnson. He projects to be a solid role player (15 points, 6 rebound guy) immediately, but due to his age, it's unlikely that he'll be able to grow to be anything more than a solid role player.

Young guys like Favors and Cousins, on the other hand, will probably start out as lower level role players (10 points, 5 rebounds), but will over time develop into starts (20+ points, 10+ rebounds).

Edit:

For comparison here's the list of guys that started out as 18 or 19 year old rookies: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=dp8Af

I agree completely and great analysis, we need that star player not another 2nd or 3rd option and that's why the pick has to be Cousins or Favors.
I could see Johnson helping us to be a solid playoff team in a few years, but if Cousins or Favors develop then they could push us to title contenders.

[Krapinsky]

Paul George carrys a similar skill set and 3 years younger. So is Wes Johnson Now > Paul George (or Xavier Henry) 3 years from now.

Remember the Josh Howard v Ndudi Ebi debate?

There was a debate? Ndudu Ebi wasn't even draftable in my opinion. I remember thinking how happy I was that Howard was there, and then I was like huh? Ndubi who?

[skorff26]

Paul George carrys a similar skill set and 3 years younger. So is Wes Johnson Now > Paul George (or Xavier Henry) 3 years from now.

Remember the Josh Howard v Ndudi Ebi debate?

That's a good example, Howard and Johnson both will help this team right now, but they will never be able to carry a team like Cousins/Favors could.
Ebi had some tools and could have developed into a solid option but never did. Cousins/Favors have that potential as well but a lot more since Ebi had a lot more question marks and that's why he went #26 (and it was a reach to take him there); Cousins/Favors both have a chance to be an NBA star and have a ton more potential.

I think the draft comes down to 2 choices
1) draft Johnson, get a solid role player and be a team who makes the playoffs in a couple years but are out in the 1st or 2nd round
2) draft Cousins/Favors and hope they develop into the stars that they could be, we would be title contenders if they develop and if they don't, we'd be a borderline playoff team.

-I prefer to take the chance; I want the Wolves to develop right and go for championships rather then play it safe and be a mediocre playoff team.