Playoff Race and Scoreboard Watching

[Neeva]

Denver has played one more game than us and has two fewer losses. The math doesn't math for us to catch them.

We win out and we will almost certainly catch them. We have to beat three really bad teams (Brooklyn twice, Philly once, and Utah once,) plus the Bucks without Dame and whatever the Griz are like when we see them. If we start playoff intensity now, we are at least the 5 seed, could even end up 3 if the right dominos fall.

Lotto/bad teams legit scare me more than facing playoff teams.A Finch coached team is so unserious half the games against inferior competition.

[winforlose]

Denver has played one more game than us and has two fewer losses. The math doesn't math for us to catch them.

We win out and we will almost certainly catch them. We have to beat three really bad teams (Brooklyn twice, Philly once, and Utah once,) plus the Bucks without Dame and whatever the Griz are like when we see them. If we start playoff intensity now, we are at least the 5 seed, could even end up 3 if the right dominos fall.

Lotto/bad teams legit scare me more than facing playoff teams.A Finch coached team is so unserious half the games against inferior competition.

True. But playoffs are this month, guys want the rest and respect of a top 6 and I am hoping we dig deep and take care of business.

[TimberKat]

Heat on hot streak. Good chance to roast Grizzlies. Would go a long way to secure the 6th/7th seed for Wolves.

[Ethomasp31]

Washington wins. Denver down 20 in the 1st half.

Not sure I want Denver to lose. It seems like they are ducking 3rd hoping we stay at 6th or below. That said Malone so overplayed Joker, Gordon, and Braun that they probably should rest this close to the end of the season.

I am thinking the same thing. I really feel sorry for them especially Westbrook missed another critical layup tonight. On the one hand DEN is now only two games ahead. Any tie or 3way tie will be very favorable to Wolves. They also have a tough schedule. One the other hand, we need Houston to be engaged and interested as they play many teams that we need a loss.

Houston needs to stay ahead of the Lakers. None of these teams, even OKC is going to shut it down with a week and a half left in the season.

[Ethomasp31]

Denver has played one more game than us and has two fewer losses. The math doesn't math for us to catch them.

You don't think Denver could go 3-2? Every team they play is playing for playoff positioning.

[Ethomasp31]

This time tomorrow, we could have the fifth seed by ourselves.

It's really strange that if LAC drops a game, we drop to 7th. We are in control to get the 6th seed by beating MEM. Do need DAL and SAC interested in the play-in and HOU still engaged to take a game or two from LAC

If we win out it doesn't matter what the Clippers do. We play 4 games with teams with nothing to play for...one against a team with one of their top players out because of a blood clot...and another against a team with their star player looking at a possible suspension because a gun gesture. In a week there is a chance that the 3rd seed would definitely be within our grasp.

[minimus]

This time tomorrow, we could have the fifth seed by ourselves.

It's really strange that if LAC drops a game, we drop to 7th. We are in control to get the 6th seed by beating MEM. Do need DAL and SAC interested in the play-in and HOU still engaged to take a game or two from LAC

If we win out it doesn't matter what the Clippers do. We play 4 games with teams with nothing to play for...one against a team with one of their top players out because of a blood clot...and another against a team with their star player looking at a possible suspension because a gun gesture. In a week there is a chance that the 3rd seed would definitely be within our grasp.

This team never stops to disappoint and amaze me.

[shrink]

This team never stops to disappoint and amaze me.

Sig-worthy

[shrink]

Houston needs to stay ahead of the Lakers. None of these teams, even OKC is going to shut it down with a week and a half left in the season.

I agree, but I am very curious what we will see from the Thunder when they play the Lakers twice in OKC next week. I agree they won’t shut it down, but with such a big lead, these games really don’t matter to the Thunder, so I wonder if we’ll get 100% commitment to winning. The Thunder are perfectly capable of putting two losses on the Lakers, but will they?

[Ethomasp31]

Denver has played one more game than us and has two fewer losses. The math doesn't math for us to catch them.

We win out and we will almost certainly catch them. We have to beat three really bad teams (Brooklyn twice, Philly once, and Utah once,) plus the Bucks without Dame and whatever the Griz are like when we see them. If we start playoff intensity now, we are at least the 5 seed, could even end up 3 if the right dominos fall.

Yes this!!!

You want the highest seed possible. Who knows who OKC will play in the first round. It might be the GSW. No matter who it is out west, it's going to be a harder series for OKC than what some are saying on here. What if SGA tweaks ankle in game one. Who knows what could happen. I agree that OKC is the definite favorite, but the West playoffs are going to be wild this year.

Right now none of the teams in the west besides Houston and OKC are projected to win 50 games. If we win out we finish 50-32. NBA reference says that right now we have a 6.5% chance at the 3rd seed. If we win out that percentage would go up to probably 30-40%. They also have us as the 3rd best chance to win the Western Conference right now.

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/jMWJyP.png

[Ethomasp31]

Houston needs to stay ahead of the Lakers. None of these teams, even OKC is going to shut it down with a week and a half left in the season.

I agree, but I am very curious what we will see from the Thunder when they play the Lakers twice in OKC next week. I agree they won’t shut it down, but with such a big lead, these games really don’t matter to the Thunder, so I wonder if we’ll get 100% commitment to winning. The Thunder are perfectly capable of putting two losses on the Lakers, but will they?

I understand they might not be as intense because it doesn't mean anything to them. But the playoffs are a another level. OKC also needs to ramp it up to be ready for that level. Those games will most likely be on national tv. It doesn't do OKC any good to go in there and not match the Lakers level. The most like outcome is probably a split. Because of the play-in, the top 6 seeds will have almost a week off before their playoff series start. I can see resting guys that last weekend, but not before. I'm not saying we will be the 3rd seed if we win out, or even that I think we will win out, we cojuld lose tonight. But if we do win out, we have a chance to move all the way up to 3. It's a better chance than most on here realize. The tough part is we would need to finish ahead of whoever wins the Pacific Division.

[Ethomasp31]

Houston needs to stay ahead of the Lakers. None of these teams, even OKC is going to shut it down with a week and a half left in the season.

I agree, but I am very curious what we will see from the Thunder when they play the Lakers twice in OKC next week. I agree they won’t shut it down, but with such a big lead, these games really don’t matter to the Thunder, so I wonder if we’ll get 100% commitment to winning. The Thunder are perfectly capable of putting two losses on the Lakers, but will they?

I understand they might not be as intense because it doesn't mean anything to them. But the playoffs are a another level. OKC also needs to ramp it up to be ready for that level. Those games will most likely be on national tv. It doesn't do OKC any good to go in there and not match the Lakers level. The most like outcome is probably a split. Because of the play-in, the top 6 seeds will have almost a week off before their playoff series start. I can see resting guys that last weekend, but not before. I'm not saying we will be the 3rd seed if we win out, or even that I think we will win out, we cojuld lose tonight. But if we do win out, we have a chance to move all the way up to 3. It's a better chance than most on here realize. The tough part is we would need to finish ahead of whoever wins the Pacific Division.

Here are the updated head to head records for the 3-8 seeds. I've added the Lakers and Nuggets. A week from now things will be much clearer as we head into the final weekend.

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/ouP7b3.png

Schedule
4/3
Wolves @ Nets
Memphis @ Miami
GSW @ Lakers

4/4
Denver @ GSW
NOP @ Lakers
Mavs @ Clippers

4/5
Memphis @ Detriot
Wolves @ 76ers
Mavs @ Clippers

4/6
Lakers @ OKC
Pacers @ Nuggets
Houston @ GSW

4/7
None that effect standings

4/8
Memphis @ Hornets
Wolves @ Bucks
Lakers @ OKC
GSW @ Suns
SAS @ Clippers

4/9
Lakers @ Mavs
SAS @ GSW
Nuggets @ Kings
Houston @ Clippers

[Biff Cooper]

The western conference playoffs are really going to be especially interesting this year ... It's tough to know how good LAL, GSW, and LAC really are going to play in a playoff series with the additions of Luka, Jimmy, and (Kawhi, Harden, Simmons actually playing together). Are the Thunder as good as they have been all year, or are teams going to be able to exploit some weaknesses in a playoff series? How good are the Houston young guns? Can Denver get enough from the rest of their team to run the table with Jokic? Is Memphis going to fall all the way to 8th and be easy pickings in the first round for OKC?

[shrink]

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/jMWJyP.png

“Remaining Strength of Schedule” made me chuckle.

[Ethomasp31]

The western conference playoffs are really going to be especially interesting this year ... It's tough to know how good LAL, GSW, and LAC really are going to play in a playoff series with the additions of Luka, Jimmy, and (Kawhi, Harden, Simmons actually playing together). Are the Thunder as good as they have been all year, or are teams going to be able to exploit some weaknesses in a playoff series? How good are the Houston young guns? Can Denver get enough from the rest of their team to run the table with Jokic? Is Memphis going to fall all the way to 8th and be easy pickings in the first round for OKC?

I think Dallas could beat Memphis to eliminate them from the playoffs all together. AD, Gafford and Lively were all back last night. i know I wouldn't want to play Dallas in a one game elimination scenario.

[Ethomasp31]

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/jMWJyP.png

“Remaining Strength of Schedule” made me chuckle.

Look at this one too...

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

[Ethomasp31]

https://sigmawire.net/i/04/jMWJyP.png

“Remaining Strength of Schedule” made me chuckle.

Look at this one too...

https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

One last thing to think about it that Portland's next 4 games are:

@ Toronto
@ Bulls
vs SAS
@ Jazz

if they can win those games, they might climb into the 10 seed chase, which it seems like no one wants at the moment. If they did, their last two games are:

GSW @ Portland
Lakers @ Portland

If they get back into the race that helps us two ways...it means they have something to play for and so do the Kings and/or Suns.

Most likely Mavs get 9 and Kings get 10. but after tomorrows game @ Charlotte, the Kings have 4 hard games in a row before finishing the season @ home against the Suns. The Suns schedule the next 4 games is brutal, so it's possible the Blazers could climb back into that play-in race, which at first glance looks like they are not really in at the moment.

The biggest problem the Blazers have is they aren't very good...which makes our back to back losses to them in November even more frustrating.

Since the middle of January the Blazers have had three 4-game winning streaks and one 6-game winning streak. At oine point they won 10 out of 11 games.

[Klomp]

Denver has played one more game than us and has two fewer losses. The math doesn't math for us to catch them.

If Wolves go 5-1 to finish 49-33 and DEN go 2-3. Every team DEN face are playoff teams.

Technically it's possible....I just don't see it as likely.

Looking at their schedule, Sacramento is below .500 and Memphis is reeling. In the finale, Houston will likely have nothing to play for.

[Ethomasp31]

Denver has played one more game than us and has two fewer losses. The math doesn't math for us to catch them.

If Wolves go 5-1 to finish 49-33 and DEN go 2-3. Every team DEN face are playoff teams.

Technically it's possible....I just don't see it as likely.

Looking at their schedule, Sacramento is below .500 and Memphis is reeling. In the finale, Houston will likely have nothing to play for.

Houston's remaining schedule is:
vs OKC
@ GSW
@ LAL
@ LAC
vs Nuggets

You don't think they will have anything to play for? It's likely they will be playing for their seed that day. Especially if the Nuggets only lose one of their next 4 games.

Denvers remaining schedule is:
@ GSW
vs. Pacers
@ Kings
vs MEM
@ Houston

Denver is reeling now too. They just lost @ home to the SAS last night who had lost 6 straight games and are without their top two players. I get they rested everyone, but everyone of their remaining games is more difficult than the SAS last night. Could they go 4-1 or 5-0? Sure, but I think 3-2 or 2-3 is just as likely.

If the Wolves win out they have a lot better chance to get the 3rd seed than you realize. We go 5-1 we probably get the 5 or 6 seed.

[Klomp]

Interestingly, I'm less worried about the Lakers than I was like a week ago. I don't know that their actual ability has changed much, but I just don't care if we play them or not. I think the whistles are a real thing though and Doncic has somewhat of a mental edge, but people had thought that both the Suns and Nuggets had an edge on us last year before the playoffs too. I would still put them and the Warriors right after the Thunder, but I would say that I'm not afraid to play them. I'd just rather not because the midseason trades create unpredictability in how we match up.

Call it a flaw or not, but sometimes this staff and roster takes a while to find the best way to expose matchups on the opponent. That might be why we always struggle with shorthanded teams or teams from the East that we don't play as often. Or like Tuesday night, we faced a Nuggets lineup we've never really seen so it took a while for them to adapt and figure out their proper attack. It could also be why we've also started seasons slower under Finch. This year and in 2022-23, we didn't even understand our own strengths at the start of the seasons because the group hadn't had time to mesh, so how could we be expected to know the right way to attack opponents?