[quote="Dan's with the Wolves"]Rubio's best case scenario is to get to the NBA this year and get through his rookie contract as soon as possible. Ultimately, this year will be his first year of his rookie deal although I doubt it starts in training camp. I wonder if he can complete the ACB season and still play at least 1 game of the NBA season. He wouldn't get much prorated cash but he would be 1 year closer to his second contract.[/quote]
You're right...except for the last part.
[i]The Minnesota Timberwolves have drafted the most exciting player to enter the NBA since Allen Iverson. All that stands between Ricky Rubio and the Minnesota Timberwolves is a 6.7 million dollar buyout owed to his current team DKV Joventut, to negate the final two years of his contract. Several lawyers have speculated that Rubio’s contract is not binding, but for the purpose of this article, we will assume that the contract Rubio signed when he was 14 is legitimate.
Following the rookie salary scale and NBA salary cap, below is the money Ricky Rubio can expect to make by executing the options available to him over an eight year period. This breakdown assumes that Rubio will get a max contract after his fifth year and that a Euro team would pay him 3M per season in addition to buying out his contract in full, an action that NBA teams are restricted from performing.
Buyout, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015
Signs with MN this year
-6.1M, 3.3M, 3.5M, 3.8M, 4.8M, 6.3M, 9M, 11M, 11M = 46.6M
Waits one year
-6.1M, .1M, 3.3M, 3.5M, 3.8M, 4.8M, 6.3M, 9M, 11M = 35.7M
Waits two years
0M, .1M, .1M, 3.3M, 3.5M, 3.8M, 4.8M, 6.3M, 9M = 30.9M
Signs 3 year contract with Euro team, including full buyout
0M, 3M, 3M, 3M, 3.3M, 3.5M, 3.8M, 4.8M, 6.3M = 30.7M
Signs 4 year contract with Euro team, including full buyout
0, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3.3M, 3.5M, 3.8M, 4.8M = 27.4M
A few caveats, this analysis does not take into account marketing or taxes. Rubio will make less money in the NBA because of taxes, but more from marketing. Teams in Europe pay the income tax of their players, whereas it’s the players responsibility in the NBA. Rubio will have to pay federal income tax, plus state income tax in EVERY NBA city he plays in, including 41 games in MN, which has a very high state income tax. From a marketing perspective, Rubio can expect to make substantially more in the NBA, regardless of which team he plays for, but I will leave that breakdown for a future post.
Even with the tax and marketing voids, it’s clear that Rubio should sign with MN yesterday. Waiting a year, his second best option, basically lops off 11M in salary made over an 8 year period. Ricky Rubio is going to lose money every additional year that he doesn’t sign with an NBA team. [/i]
http://jfsports.wordpress.com/2009/07/0 ... -analysis/