Re: Trade Talk (Part Eleven): 2022 Offseason Edition

[shrink]

Really don't get the excitement to make the team worse by trading D'Angelo Russell for absolute garbage.

I am the guy that concocted the elite take about distribution and guard-play problems five games into the season, but at some point you have to take a step back and consider if making the team substantially worse this season just to preserve a salary slot (that is a garbage-tier expiring) is worthwhile.

I think Minnesota just rolls forward with the team as-is, barring a Naz Reid or (hopefully) Jaylen Nowell trade.

Well, nobody should be traded for “absolute garbage,” but we need to look at DLo plainly, in the spectrum of team needs.

1. Do you want him starting next season next to Ant? I would say no. We have plenty of offense, and we don’t want to take the ball out of his hands to maximize his development. What we need next to Ant is a mid-priced, point of attack defender, who will swing the ball on offense, and can make an occasional open three.

2. Are you going to be able to sign DLo to a reasonable extension as a good sixth man? All signs point to no, with a giant “bet on yourself!” Can we afford to even pay $20 mil for him to be a sixth man? Will our offer be higher than all 29 other teams in free agency, some who would use him as a starter?

I think these two questions virtually guarantees DLo is not on the roster at the start of next season. The question becomes, do we trade him, or lose him for nothing? The second option is an even worse option, because we lose that matching component.

[shrink]

What is DLo worth in trade?

DLo gives a team four things.

1. A half season of production
2. A preview to see how he fits with a new team’s players, before offering a big contract
3. Bird rights to offer him a contract as an Unrestricted Free Agent, if a team doesn’t have the cap space.
4. A mechanism for financial relief, if MIN will sell future payroll flexibility.

These aren’t a lot. We know rentals don’t bring back much in trade - many teams just wait for the summer rather than give up decent assets. Moreover, DLo’s production has holes, and is probably not going to be worth $16 mil for the rest of the season, so asset #1 is limited. That said, he could be a useful option for a playoff team (which MIN will be), so it’s not nothing. MIN has no need of #2 or #4, and #3 is only useful if we want to outbid everyone else in free agency. I think I’ve demonstrated why that is a bad idea, so DLo is a “more valuable to others than me” player for MIN, and should be a trade candidate.

The key to finding a trade partner that will give us anything positive is finding one that clicks the most of these 4 boxes. Right now, 24 teams are competing for the playoffs, so that’s a good start. But identifying the teams that would want to go forward with him is very difficult, and his value may simply come from a team that sees him as an expiring, and wants to send us a mediocre-to-bad contract with another year, for compensation.

Who do you think the teams are, where DLo clicks those boxes best?

[shrink]

Incidentally, I visited the thread to post something very similar about Naz Reid. He fits three of the criteria

1. A half season of production
2. A preview to see how he fits with a new team’s players, before offering a big contract
3. Bird rights to offer him a contract as an Unrestricted Free Agent, if a team doesn’t have the cap space

I think we are overpricing him, and Bird rights probably only matter if he gets an offer higher than the MLE, starting at around $11-12 mil his first year. I think like DLo, it’s pretty obvious we can’t pay him in free agency to be our third center, when some other team offers a deal as a starter, so he won’t be on the roster next season. He will have more opportunity to advance his career on virtually any other team. Moreover, his value is reduced as a UFA, since he doesn’t even give a team RFA rights to match another contract like many players his age. Finally, there are many centers in the NBA right now, more than there are jobs, and many teams have invested lottery picks into potential centers.

I’m sure there are teams out there where we can get a little value. For example, PHI and BRK could both use a cheap backup center right now, and may think they can bring him back with Bird rights. Once Towns is back, he has more value right now on any other team, even as injury insurance. But I think the idea of getting a late 1st is unrealistic. Maybe he’s worth a couple seconds.

[Klomp]

What is DLo worth in trade?

DLo gives a team four things.

1. A half season of production
2. A preview to see how he fits with a new team’s players, before offering a big contract
3. Bird rights to offer him a contract as an Unrestricted Free Agent, if a team doesn’t have the cap space.
4. A mechanism for financial relief, if MIN will sell future payroll flexibility.

These aren’t a lot. We know rentals don’t bring back much in trade - many teams just wait for the summer rather than give up decent assets. Moreover, DLo’s production has holes, and is probably not going to be worth $16 mil for the rest of the season, so asset #1 is limited. That said, he could be a useful option for a playoff team (which MIN will be), so it’s not nothing. MIN has no need of #2 or #4, and #3 is only useful if we want to outbid everyone else in free agency. I think I’ve demonstrated why that is a bad idea, so DLo is a “more valuable to others than me” player for MIN, and should be a trade candidate.

The key to finding a trade partner that will give us anything positive is finding one that clicks the most of these 4 boxes. Right now, 24 teams are competing for the playoffs, so that’s a good start. But identifying the teams that would want to go forward with him is very difficult, and his value may simply come from a team that sees him as an expiring, and wants to send us a mediocre-to-bad contract with another year, for compensation.

Who do you think the teams are, where DLo clicks those boxes best?

I continue to go back to Washington.

-Have made a habit of making "flashy" trades, even though they don't always work (Westbrook, Porzingis, etc)
-Not totally out of the playoff hunt, and never been a team to flat-out tank
-Already have a star lead guard/ballhandler who can allow Russell to settle into secondary role
-Good working relations between the front offices and coaching staffs
-Players/contracts that would appeal to Minnesota but wouldn't completely ruin us

[shangrila]

Really don't get the excitement to make the team worse by trading D'Angelo Russell for absolute garbage.

I am the guy that concocted the elite take about distribution and guard-play problems five games into the season, but at some point you have to take a step back and consider if making the team substantially worse this season just to preserve a salary slot (that is a garbage-tier expiring) is worthwhile.

I think Minnesota just rolls forward with the team as-is, barring a Naz Reid or (hopefully) Jaylen Nowell trade.

Define "absolute garbage".

[shrink]

Are you thinking Russell for Monte Morris, Delon Wright and Will Barton (exp), and maybe 2 2nds?

The Wizards are only $350k under the lux, yet this deal only adds $70k! I’d be on board.

We’d need to dispose of a couple players before the deal to make two roster spots. I’d love to see if we could trade Wright + Naz and the 2023 NYK 2nd to get Caruso. But if not, see who would absorb Bryn Forbes or Jaylen Nowell.

[Klomp]

Are you thinking Russell for Monte Morris, Delon Wright and Will Barton (exp), and maybe 2 2nds?

The Wizards are only $350k under the lux, yet this deal only adds $70k! I’d be on board.

We’d need to dispose of a couple players before the deal to make two roster spots. I’d love to see if we could trade Wright + Naz and the 2023 NYK 2nd to get Caruso. But if not, see who would absorb Bryn Forbes or Jaylen Nowell.

That'd be fine.

I wonder if a Kuzma addition (instead of Wright) would kill the interest for Washington. While he may not be appealing for us, he may be an avenue to getting a 1st from a third team. Would also give them $5M lux cushion...maybe they'd be the one to take Nowell and/or Forbes as a result

In summary...

MIN Out: Russell, Nowell, Forbes
MIN In: Morris, Barton, pick from 3rd team

WAS Out: Morris, Barton, Kuzma
WAS In: Russell, Nowell, Forbes

3rd Out: pick
3rd In: Kuzma

[shrink]

That’s better, but I think trading Kuzma takes away a lot of the Wizards incentive.

He’s playing well, and I think they’d like to keep him this summer when he declines his players option. Removing Morris and Wright’s second year gets them $18 mil to help bring him back and stay under the lux.

[Klomp]

If not Kuzma, could we at least get a future pick from them?

[shrink]

If not Kuzma, could we at least get a future pick from them?

It’s hard for WAS to trade a 1st, since they owe this year’s 1st to NYK with lottery protections, that decline over the next three years. They could write it up like we once did in the Szczerbiak trade, where we’d get a 1st two years after they give one to NYK, but it seems risky to lock up a deal that far out for payroll relief.

I wrote it up as WAS giving two 2nds, but even that is tricky, WAS has traded their own 2nd for 2023-25, so two 2nds would be their 2026 2nd, and their half of a 2023 MIA pick.

Perhaps the best way for WAS to add value is by including a prospect. However, all the fans at RealGM love their own team’s prospects, and value them like their highest ceiling, rather than their expected value. I don’t know WAS prospects to choose the right guy, and I assume I wouldn’t get that information. I still think WAS is an excellent target though.

[Danimals]

We want Morris and Wright in this deal.

[shrink]

Minnesota trade: Reid, Russell
Miami trade: Lowry, Dedmon, 2023 Lottery Protected 1st

Why for Minnesota: get an asset back for Reid and get a better passing PG
Why for Miami: add a stretch big and get out of lowry's contract

Would you do this one from the Trade Board?

Lowry’s owed $29.7 mil next year, and he’ll be 37. He’s slipped in the last month, and is dealing with knee soreness. However, he’s always been a good leader, smart, and the kind of guy Ant could learn from. Dedmon is a $4.3 team option next year.

Again, I wonder if Dedmon + that 1st could bring us Caruso?

[Danimals]

Dlo, Reid, Nowell for Lowry, Oladipo, Jovic

Lowry McLaughlin Rivers
Edwards Oladipo Moore
McDaniels Prince Jovic
Towns Anderson Minott
Gobert Knight Garza

[younggunsmn]

Alec Burks is the exact kind of player we should be targeting, but unfortunately we don't have any draft pick assets left, it would have been nice to have those 2 2nds back Connelly sent out to move up from 29 to 26 for DNP-CD Moore.
I would target him if we split D-Lo into 2 smaller contracts.

MN IN: Alec Burks, TJ McConnell
MN OUT: Russell, Forbes

IND IN: Bojan Bogdonavic
IND OUT: TJ McConnell, 2023 Cle 1st (15-30)

DET IN: Russell, Forbes, 2023 Cle 1st (15-30)
DET OUT: Bogdanovic, Burks

Det gets a chance to add talent in Russell for little risk, they made a similar deal for Bagley last year and then re-signed him.
Burks would walk in the offseason, they get a 1st for Bogdanovic who is messing up their tank and doesnt fit their timeline.

Indiana is surprisingly competitive this year and adds another shooter for Hailburton, and a steady veteran for them to try to win this year to entice Myles Turner to re-sign in the offseason. They could absorb Bogdanovic with cap space, but send us McConnell to clear the final 2 yrs/18 million off their books so they can try to add both Turner and another free agent in the offseason and open up backup PG minutes for Duarte.

For Wolves, fans get to stop throwing imaginary bricks through their TV sets 4-5 times a game, and add two very heady veterans to our thin backcourt rotation. Burks is what we'd be ecstatic for Moore to be in 3-4 years.
Adding McConnell and Burks to other high IQ guys like Anderson will hopefully keep us from being so inconsistent every night and stop losing to bad teams so much. If we could just beat the bad teams and split against the teams as talented as we are, we would be a shoo-in for the playoffs.

[younggunsmn]

I'm not sold on Morris as a starting PG and don't want the extra year on Wright's deal, he would have to be moved to a 3rd team.
Does Morris play any defense?
Barton is having a really down year but would still be a veteran presence.

[Klomp]

I'm not sold on Morris as a starting PG and don't want the extra year on Wright's deal, he would have to be moved to a 3rd team.
Does Morris play any defense?
Barton is having a really down year but would still be a veteran presence.

At $9M, we don't have to necessarily commit to Morris as the permanent full-time PG. Though I know people will feel the need to do so in any trade of Russell.

[younggunsmn]

But with Morris and Wright we would be stuck with 18 million in backup PGs next year, that probably also takes us out of free agency.
I don't know that a trade with Washington is any better than letting D-Lo walk and replacing him via the MLE/trade market.

[younggunsmn]

Even if Lowry is cooked, Miami's front office is way too smart to add Russell to their roster, they would cut him before he ever spent a minute on the floor for Spoelstra.
There are at least a dozen other front offices I have that same feeling about, including Toronto.

[shangrila]

But with Morris and Wright we would be stuck with 18 million in backup PGs next year, that probably also takes us out of free agency.
I don't know that a trade with Washington is any better than letting D-Lo walk and replacing him via the MLE/trade market.

The FA class sucks this year

[Mamba4Goat]

But with Morris and Wright we would be stuck with 18 million in backup PGs next year, that probably also takes us out of free agency.
I don't know that a trade with Washington is any better than letting D-Lo walk and replacing him via the MLE/trade market.

What kind of players do you think Minnesota would be in free agency? They’d have the MLE to throw around and that’s about it. If my math is right you can trade for those two and still use it anyways.