Around the NBA (Part Two)

[winforlose]

NOP tried so hard to give that game away. Thanks to some timely missed FT from Clippers and a triple double from Zion, NOP is going to win this one. A little breathing room for Twolves to hold on to #7 seed.

30 losses for the Clippers is nice insurance. But the 5 teams I am care most about are all above us. Hopefully we hang two losses on the Nuggets and one on the Griz.

[shrink]

NOP tried so hard to give that game away. Thanks to some timely missed FT from Clippers and a triple double from Zion, NOP is going to win this one. A little breathing room for Twolves to hold on to #7 seed.

30 losses for the Clippers is nice insurance. But the 5 teams I am care most about are all above us. Hopefully we hang two losses on the Nuggets and one on the Griz.

I agree, but with our team’s insistence on losing to bad teams these last three years, I’ll take a half game advantage on the team behind us whenever I can get it.

Do we need a “scoreboard watching” thread, or will this do for the rest of the way. I’m watching the scoreboards every night now!

[winforlose]

NOP tried so hard to give that game away. Thanks to some timely missed FT from Clippers and a triple double from Zion, NOP is going to win this one. A little breathing room for Twolves to hold on to #7 seed.

30 losses for the Clippers is nice insurance. But the 5 teams I am care most about are all above us. Hopefully we hang two losses on the Nuggets and one on the Griz.

I agree, but with our team’s insistence on losing to bad teams these last three years, I’ll take a half game advantage on the team behind us whenever I can get it.

Do we need a “scoreboard watching” thread, or will this do for the rest of the way. I’m watching the scoreboards every night now!

The Clippers just dropped a game to the last place Pels. The Kings lost back to back including to the Clippers without Powell and the Knicks without Brunson. As much as it sucks when we lost games we must win, we are seeing other teams follow suit.

[TimberKat]

It's Spring break, go Suns and Heat. No music from Jazz tonight.

[TimberKat]

It's Spring break, go Suns and Heat. No music from Jazz tonight.

Wow, both Suns and Heat are down 52 to 57 at half time. Hope they both make a comeback.

[younggunsmn]

4 road games against playoff teams left:
@ Indiana
@ Denver
@ Milwaukee
@ Memphis

2 home games against playoff teams left:
Det
Indiana

2 home games against teams still fighting for a spot in the playoffs:
Orlando
Phoenix

7 games against teams that have given up
2X Utah (home)
2X New Orleans (home)
2X Brooklyn (1 home, 1 away)
1 @ Philadelphia

If we split the 8 against non tanking teams and sweep the tanking teams (11-4) we would end up with 48 wins.
The Warriors would have to go 10-7 or worse for us to take the 6 seed in that scenario.

The Warrors have left:
7 games against teams holding a top 6 seed
5 games against teams sitting 7-10 (including Phoenix here as they still have a shot at passing the Mavs for the 10 seed).
5 games against teams out of it.

Their tanking teams are in a little better shape to pull an upset than our tanking teams though:
Tor, @NO, @Por, SASx2.

We may need to go 12-3 and hit 50 wins to have a real shot at passing the Warriors, who have the tiebreaker over us.
Gonna be tough to see them losing 6 or 7 more games. If we get to 50 they only have to lose 5 more.

[TimberKat]

4 road games against playoff teams left:
@ Indiana
@ Denver
@ Milwaukee
@ Memphis

2 home games against playoff teams left:
Det
Indiana

2 home games against teams still fighting for a spot in the playoffs:
Orlando
Phoenix

7 games against teams that have given up
2X Utah (home)
2X New Orleans (home)
2X Brooklyn (1 home, 1 away)
1 @ Philadelphia

If we split the 8 against non tanking teams and sweep the tanking teams (11-4) we would end up with 48 wins.
The Warriors would have to go 10-7 or worse for us to take the 6 seed in that scenario.

The Warrors have left:
7 games against teams holding a top 6 seed
5 games against teams sitting 7-10 (including Phoenix here as they still have a shot at passing the Mavs for the 10 seed).
5 games against teams out of it.

Their tanking teams are in a little better shape to pull an upset than our tanking teams though:
Tor, @NO, @Por, SASx2.

We may need to go 12-3 and hit 50 wins to have a real shot at passing the Warriors, who have the tiebreaker over us.
Gonna be tough to see them losing 6 or 7 more games. If we get to 50 they only have to lose 5 more.

Not after Fox out for the season. That is two more easy games. Basically no way to catch them. The 1/15 one point loss to GSW really hurts at this point.

[winforlose]

4 road games against playoff teams left:
@ Indiana
@ Denver
@ Milwaukee
@ Memphis

2 home games against playoff teams left:
Det
Indiana

2 home games against teams still fighting for a spot in the playoffs:
Orlando
Phoenix

7 games against teams that have given up
2X Utah (home)
2X New Orleans (home)
2X Brooklyn (1 home, 1 away)
1 @ Philadelphia

If we split the 8 against non tanking teams and sweep the tanking teams (11-4) we would end up with 48 wins.
The Warriors would have to go 10-7 or worse for us to take the 6 seed in that scenario.

The Warrors have left:
7 games against teams holding a top 6 seed
5 games against teams sitting 7-10 (including Phoenix here as they still have a shot at passing the Mavs for the 10 seed).
5 games against teams out of it.

Their tanking teams are in a little better shape to pull an upset than our tanking teams though:
Tor, @NO, @Por, SASx2.

We may need to go 12-3 and hit 50 wins to have a real shot at passing the Warriors, who have the tiebreaker over us.
Gonna be tough to see them losing 6 or 7 more games. If we get to 50 they only have to lose 5 more.

I appreciate the thought process but respectfully you are missing the bigger picture. The 5 teams above us (not counting the Thunder who are clearly locked into 1st,) play each other quite a bit. Take the Lakers for example. They play 4 games in 5 days, with a 5th on the 7th day. In that time they play the Nuggets twice. Without LeBron let’s assume they lose tonight, and both Nuggets games. All of the sudden the 23 loss Lakers are at 26 losses. We are only at 29. If we lose only 4 more than we end at 33 losses. Can the Lakers stay above 33 or not lose the tie breaker (conference,) to us in that time? The Rockets have 25 losses and have 16 games left to play. Can they stay 4 losses better than us and keep the conference tie breaker? I don’t know where the Warriors end up, or if we can pass them. But I suspect at least one of the 4 teams above them will fall below us by seasons end.

[TimberKat]

4 road games against playoff teams left:
@ Indiana
@ Denver
@ Milwaukee
@ Memphis

2 home games against playoff teams left:
Det
Indiana

2 home games against teams still fighting for a spot in the playoffs:
Orlando
Phoenix

7 games against teams that have given up
2X Utah (home)
2X New Orleans (home)
2X Brooklyn (1 home, 1 away)
1 @ Philadelphia

If we split the 8 against non tanking teams and sweep the tanking teams (11-4) we would end up with 48 wins.
The Warriors would have to go 10-7 or worse for us to take the 6 seed in that scenario.

The Warrors have left:
7 games against teams holding a top 6 seed
5 games against teams sitting 7-10 (including Phoenix here as they still have a shot at passing the Mavs for the 10 seed).
5 games against teams out of it.

Their tanking teams are in a little better shape to pull an upset than our tanking teams though:
Tor, @NO, @Por, SASx2.

We may need to go 12-3 and hit 50 wins to have a real shot at passing the Warriors, who have the tiebreaker over us.
Gonna be tough to see them losing 6 or 7 more games. If we get to 50 they only have to lose 5 more.

I appreciate the thought process but respectfully you are missing the bigger picture. The 5 teams above us (not counting the Thunder who are clearly locked into 1st,) play each other quite a bit. Take the Lakers for example. They play 4 games in 5 days, with a 5th on the 7th day. In that time they play the Nuggets twice. Without LeBron let’s assume they lose tonight, and both Nuggets games. All of the sudden the 23 loss Lakers are at 26 losses. We are only at 29. If we lose only 4 more than we end at 33 losses. Can the Lakers stay above 33 or not lose the tie breaker (conference,) to us in that time? The Rockets have 25 losses and have 16 games left to play. Can they stay 4 losses better than us and keep the conference tie breaker? I don’t know where the Warriors end up, or if we can pass them. But I suspect at least one of the 4 teams above them will fall below us by seasons end.

If LBJ doesn't come back, Lakers is most likely even though they are fairly ahead. Let's hope the slide starts tonight at MIL.

[winforlose]

4 road games against playoff teams left:
@ Indiana
@ Denver
@ Milwaukee
@ Memphis

2 home games against playoff teams left:
Det
Indiana

2 home games against teams still fighting for a spot in the playoffs:
Orlando
Phoenix

7 games against teams that have given up
2X Utah (home)
2X New Orleans (home)
2X Brooklyn (1 home, 1 away)
1 @ Philadelphia

If we split the 8 against non tanking teams and sweep the tanking teams (11-4) we would end up with 48 wins.
The Warriors would have to go 10-7 or worse for us to take the 6 seed in that scenario.

The Warrors have left:
7 games against teams holding a top 6 seed
5 games against teams sitting 7-10 (including Phoenix here as they still have a shot at passing the Mavs for the 10 seed).
5 games against teams out of it.

Their tanking teams are in a little better shape to pull an upset than our tanking teams though:
Tor, @NO, @Por, SASx2.

We may need to go 12-3 and hit 50 wins to have a real shot at passing the Warriors, who have the tiebreaker over us.
Gonna be tough to see them losing 6 or 7 more games. If we get to 50 they only have to lose 5 more.

I appreciate the thought process but respectfully you are missing the bigger picture. The 5 teams above us (not counting the Thunder who are clearly locked into 1st,) play each other quite a bit. Take the Lakers for example. They play 4 games in 5 days, with a 5th on the 7th day. In that time they play the Nuggets twice. Without LeBron let’s assume they lose tonight, and both Nuggets games. All of the sudden the 23 loss Lakers are at 26 losses. We are only at 29. If we lose only 4 more than we end at 33 losses. Can the Lakers stay above 33 or not lose the tie breaker (conference,) to us in that time? The Rockets have 25 losses and have 16 games left to play. Can they stay 4 losses better than us and keep the conference tie breaker? I don’t know where the Warriors end up, or if we can pass them. But I suspect at least one of the 4 teams above them will fall below us by seasons end.

If LBJ doesn't come back, Lakers is most likely even though they are fairly ahead. Let's hope the slide starts tonight at MIL.

Not just LAL. Memphis without JJJ and Houston without Amen Thompson are both vulnerable. We have an opportunity if we keep winning.

[winforlose]

Lakers now have 24 losses. Memphis has 24, Denver has 24, Rockets have 25, GSW has 28. The 2 seed is very much still in play, and with so many matchups between these teams and with other high end teams (OKC, Boston, Cleveland, ect…,) our destiny may not literally be in our hands, but our destiny is essentially in our hands.

[winforlose]

GSW has made at least 11 3s out of 17 attempts (might be more if NBA.com is behind,) in the first 16 minutes.

[TimberKat]

GSW has made at least 11 3s out of 17 attempts (might be more if NBA.com is behind,) in the first 16 minutes.

It is insane what Hield and Payton 2 is doing

[TimberKat]

GSW has made at least 11 3s out of 17 attempts (might be more if NBA.com is behind,) in the first 16 minutes.

It is insane what Hield and Payton 2 is doing

SAC was down 23 early but managed to stay just down 10 at half time. Still hope for SAC to win this one.

[TimberKat]

Lakers now have 24 losses. Memphis has 24, Denver has 24, Rockets have 25, GSW has 28. The 2 seed is very much still in play, and with so many matchups between these teams and with other high end teams (OKC, Boston, Cleveland, ect…,) our destiny may not literally be in our hands, but our destiny is essentially in our hands.

We have to go 9-1 to catch 4 games on a 5-5 team. Just not likely unless some team implodes as all the tanking teams don't care.

[winforlose]

Lakers now have 24 losses. Memphis has 24, Denver has 24, Rockets have 25, GSW has 28. The 2 seed is very much still in play, and with so many matchups between these teams and with other high end teams (OKC, Boston, Cleveland, ect…,) our destiny may not literally be in our hands, but our destiny is essentially in our hands.

We have to go 9-1 to catch 4 games on a 5-5 team. Just not likely unless some team implodes as all the tanking teams don't care.

The easiest way to respond is to use the loss column. It is more direct than going into half games. We can never have the tie breaker over GSW or Memphis because we lost the season series with them. We have won the season series with the Nuggets and so always have the tie breaker. We split with LAL and we split Houston. Those tie breakers come down to conference record since they are not in our division. They are both attainable depending on the rest of the season. With that in mind, Memphis Houston, Denver and after tonight GSW have played 66 games, LAL 64. For the 66 game teams excluding GSW, we need them to lose 4 to 6 more games than us. The variable depends on the tie breaker and initial record at this moment. Given that some of them play each other, and other tough opponents, I wouldn’t rule it out for 1 or 2.

[winforlose]

King’s fall to 32 losses and 9-10 is that much further behind us. Unfortunately the Warriors continue their winning ways.

[younggunsmn]

4 road games against playoff teams left:
@ Indiana
@ Denver
@ Milwaukee
@ Memphis

2 home games against playoff teams left:
Det
Indiana

2 home games against teams still fighting for a spot in the playoffs:
Orlando
Phoenix

7 games against teams that have given up
2X Utah (home)
2X New Orleans (home)
2X Brooklyn (1 home, 1 away)
1 @ Philadelphia

If we split the 8 against non tanking teams and sweep the tanking teams (11-4) we would end up with 48 wins.
The Warriors would have to go 10-7 or worse for us to take the 6 seed in that scenario.

The Warrors have left:
7 games against teams holding a top 6 seed
5 games against teams sitting 7-10 (including Phoenix here as they still have a shot at passing the Mavs for the 10 seed).
5 games against teams out of it.

Their tanking teams are in a little better shape to pull an upset than our tanking teams though:
Tor, @NO, @Por, SASx2.

We may need to go 12-3 and hit 50 wins to have a real shot at passing the Warriors, who have the tiebreaker over us.
Gonna be tough to see them losing 6 or 7 more games. If we get to 50 they only have to lose 5 more.

I appreciate the thought process but respectfully you are missing the bigger picture. The 5 teams above us (not counting the Thunder who are clearly locked into 1st,) play each other quite a bit. Take the Lakers for example. They play 4 games in 5 days, with a 5th on the 7th day. In that time they play the Nuggets twice. Without LeBron let’s assume they lose tonight, and both Nuggets games. All of the sudden the 23 loss Lakers are at 26 losses. We are only at 29. If we lose only 4 more than we end at 33 losses. Can the Lakers stay above 33 or not lose the tie breaker (conference,) to us in that time? The Rockets have 25 losses and have 16 games left to play. Can they stay 4 losses better than us and keep the conference tie breaker? I don’t know where the Warriors end up, or if we can pass them. But I suspect at least one of the 4 teams above them will fall below us by seasons end.

4-5 games in the loss column with only 15 games remaining is an incredibly steep hill to climb against competitive teams.
One of those teams would basically have to lose every single game they play against a competitive team or have a couple bad losses against tanking teams.

Even if we lose only 3 games the rest of the season, one of those teams, who are all winning about 2/3 of their games, would have to lose half or more of their remaining games for us to pass or tie them.

Barring some injury massacre I just don't see that happening.
Even if one of those teams lost a star player they can probably eke out 6 or 7 wins just against tanking teams just because they are actually trying.

[younggunsmn]

Lakers now have 24 losses. Memphis has 24, Denver has 24, Rockets have 25, GSW has 28. The 2 seed is very much still in play, and with so many matchups between these teams and with other high end teams (OKC, Boston, Cleveland, ect…,) our destiny may not literally be in our hands, but our destiny is essentially in our hands.

We have to go 9-1 to catch 4 games on a 5-5 team. Just not likely unless some team implodes as all the tanking teams don't care.

The easiest way to respond is to use the loss column. It is more direct than going into half games. We can never have the tie breaker over GSW or Memphis because we lost the season series with them. We have won the season series with the Nuggets and so always have the tie breaker. We split with LAL and we split Houston. Those tie breakers come down to conference record since they are not in our division. They are both attainable depending on the rest of the season. With that in mind, Memphis Houston, Denver and after tonight GSW have played 66 games, LAL 64. For the 66 game teams excluding GSW, we need them to lose 4 to 6 more games than us. The variable depends on the tie breaker and initial record at this moment. Given that some of them play each other, and other tough opponents, I wouldn’t rule it out for 1 or 2.

There are also 3 or 4 way tie scenarios to think about.
But that hurts my brain.

[shrink]

Derek Hansen at Canis wrote a nice article on the Wolves playoff seeding, if people are interested.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2025/3/8/24379714/timberwolves-final-stretch-analysis