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2023 Free Agency

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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#961 » by BlacJacMac » Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:29 pm

winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Did it ever occur to you that was because he didn’t play much with Embiid? In the 25 minutes he did play with him they were +43. The phenomenon you are describing is what happens to the Mavs when Luka is out, but made worse by the fact that it is a guy USUALLY only in the rotation when Luka isn’t playing or at least not on the floor.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/morrima03/lineups/2024

With us he has Gobert behind him or at least Karl who is much better this year at defending PNR and guarding the paint (still no Gobert, but improved.)


He played 179 minutes with Embiid. They were +1.3...


I know the link says that, but if you check the 5 man lineups that doesn’t pan out. I don’t get it.


Because that's only for that specific 5-man lineup. Those 5 players on the floor for all of 25 minutes was great. But there is almost nothing you can glean about individuals from so small of a sample size.

The 179 minutes cover all lineups that Morris and Embiid played in together.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#962 » by winforlose » Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:50 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
He played 179 minutes with Embiid. They were +1.3...


I know the link says that, but if you check the 5 man lineups that doesn’t pan out. I don’t get it.


Because that's only for that specific 5-man lineup. Those 5 players on the floor for all of 25 minutes was great. But there is almost nothing you can glean about individuals from so small of a sample size.

The 179 minutes cover all lineups that Morris and Embiid played in together.


I realized that they only show the top 10. So they probably had a bunch of small stints with different players that total the 2 man 179.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#963 » by BlacJacMac » Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:59 pm

winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
I know the link says that, but if you check the 5 man lineups that doesn’t pan out. I don’t get it.


Because that's only for that specific 5-man lineup. Those 5 players on the floor for all of 25 minutes was great. But there is almost nothing you can glean about individuals from so small of a sample size.

The 179 minutes cover all lineups that Morris and Embiid played in together.


I realized that they only show the top 10. So they probably had a bunch of small stints with different players that total the 2 man 179.


Right. Morris and Embiid have played a total of 179 minutes together this year. So they likely had some good lineups together and some bad ones.

But small minute 5 man lineups tell you almost nothing. Its all noise and one player going off (or tanking) can really skew it. Just compare these two:

P. Beverley | J. Embiid | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 25 Minutes, +47.3
J. Embiid | T. Harris | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 19 Minutes, -23.1

I doubt just swapping Harris for Beverley results in a 70 point swing.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#964 » by winforlose » Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:12 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
Because that's only for that specific 5-man lineup. Those 5 players on the floor for all of 25 minutes was great. But there is almost nothing you can glean about individuals from so small of a sample size.

The 179 minutes cover all lineups that Morris and Embiid played in together.


I realized that they only show the top 10. So they probably had a bunch of small stints with different players that total the 2 man 179.


Right. Morris and Embiid have played a total of 179 minutes together this year. So they likely had some good lineups together and some bad ones.

But small minute 5 man lineups tell you almost nothing. Its all noise and one player going off (or tanking) can really skew it. Just compare these two:

P. Beverley | J. Embiid | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 25 Minutes, +47.3
J. Embiid | T. Harris | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 19 Minutes, -23.1

I doubt just swapping Harris for Beverley results in a 70 point swing.


Getting back to my original point. You showed a major negative in a number of categories, but my point was those numbers were always going to look worse, because he has played 637 total minutes and only 179 with Embiid. That is 28.1% of his time. Likewise he has played 410 minutes with Maxey or 64.36%. If we look at his second worst lineup it is -52.8 and has no Embiid or Maxey. Now not is only 20:36 total, but that is effective at illustrating that on a top heavy team like Philly, playing without the top guys isn’t going to be pretty.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#965 » by BlacJacMac » Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:36 pm

winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
I realized that they only show the top 10. So they probably had a bunch of small stints with different players that total the 2 man 179.


Right. Morris and Embiid have played a total of 179 minutes together this year. So they likely had some good lineups together and some bad ones.

But small minute 5 man lineups tell you almost nothing. Its all noise and one player going off (or tanking) can really skew it. Just compare these two:

P. Beverley | J. Embiid | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 25 Minutes, +47.3
J. Embiid | T. Harris | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 19 Minutes, -23.1

I doubt just swapping Harris for Beverley results in a 70 point swing.


Getting back to my original point. You showed a major negative in a number of categories, but my point was those numbers were always going to look worse, because he has played 637 total minutes and only 179 with Embiid. That is 28.1% of his time. Likewise he has played 410 minutes with Maxey or 64.36%. If we look at his second worst lineup it is -52.8 and has no Embiid or Maxey. Now not is only 20:36 total, but that is effective at illustrating that on a top heavy team like Philly, playing without the top guys isn’t going to be pretty.


No. It really doesn't illustrate anything. 20 minutes isn't even a sample. And again, that's what happened with those 5 players on the floor. You have no idea who was responsible for any of it.

So as long as he can play with an MVP and other stars, he has a chance to not hurt you?

Meh. He's a negative player at this point in his career - on both sides of the ball.

Look at Embiid's lineup data. He's a "walking plus sign". Look at his 2 and 3 man combos. He drags everyone but Korkmaz and RoCo to respectability or better:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/lineups/2024
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#966 » by winforlose » Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:46 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
Right. Morris and Embiid have played a total of 179 minutes together this year. So they likely had some good lineups together and some bad ones.

But small minute 5 man lineups tell you almost nothing. Its all noise and one player going off (or tanking) can really skew it. Just compare these two:

P. Beverley | J. Embiid | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 25 Minutes, +47.3
J. Embiid | T. Harris | T. Maxey | M. Morris | K. Oubre: 19 Minutes, -23.1

I doubt just swapping Harris for Beverley results in a 70 point swing.


Getting back to my original point. You showed a major negative in a number of categories, but my point was those numbers were always going to look worse, because he has played 637 total minutes and only 179 with Embiid. That is 28.1% of his time. Likewise he has played 410 minutes with Maxey or 64.36%. If we look at his second worst lineup it is -52.8 and has no Embiid or Maxey. Now not is only 20:36 total, but that is effective at illustrating that on a top heavy team like Philly, playing without the top guys isn’t going to be pretty.


No. It really doesn't illustrate anything. 20 minutes isn't even a sample. And again, that's what happened with those 5 players on the floor. You have no idea who was responsible for any of it.

So as long as he can play with an MVP and other stars, he has a chance to not hurt you?

Meh. He's a negative player at this point in his career - on both sides of the ball.

Look at Embiid's lineup data. He's a "walking plus sign". Look at his 2 and 3 man combos. He drags everyone but Korkmaz and RoCo to respectability or better:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/lineups/2024


Look at the team without Embiid, that is my point. Of course his +/- looks bad when he is playing without the defensive anchor. How bad would everyone else be without Embiid dragging them to respectable. Morris would usually be playing with Rudy or at worst Karl behind him. He would be playing with a less top heavy Wolves.

Edit to add: according to Statmuse the 76ers are 5-13 without Embiid. They are 26-8 with Embiid. So if Morris isn’t playing that much with Embiid is it any surprise his numbers look bad. Teams tend to do better when the opposing star sits or misses the game.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#967 » by BlacJacMac » Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:47 pm

winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
Getting back to my original point. You showed a major negative in a number of categories, but my point was those numbers were always going to look worse, because he has played 637 total minutes and only 179 with Embiid. That is 28.1% of his time. Likewise he has played 410 minutes with Maxey or 64.36%. If we look at his second worst lineup it is -52.8 and has no Embiid or Maxey. Now not is only 20:36 total, but that is effective at illustrating that on a top heavy team like Philly, playing without the top guys isn’t going to be pretty.


No. It really doesn't illustrate anything. 20 minutes isn't even a sample. And again, that's what happened with those 5 players on the floor. You have no idea who was responsible for any of it.

So as long as he can play with an MVP and other stars, he has a chance to not hurt you?

Meh. He's a negative player at this point in his career - on both sides of the ball.

Look at Embiid's lineup data. He's a "walking plus sign". Look at his 2 and 3 man combos. He drags everyone but Korkmaz and RoCo to respectability or better:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/lineups/2024


Look at the team without Embiid, that is my point. Of course his +/- looks bad when he is playing without the defensive anchor. How bad would everyone else be without Embiid dragging them to respectable. Morris would usually be playing with Rudy or at worst Karl behind him. He would be playing with a less top heavy Wolves.

Edit to add: according to Statmuse the 76ers are 5-13 without Embiid. They are 26-8 with Embiid. So if Morris isn’t playing that much with Embiid is it any surprise his numbers look bad. Teams tend to do better when the opposing star sits or misses the game.


You know EPM (which I included in my original post) accounts for that, right?
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#968 » by winforlose » Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:06 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
winforlose wrote:
BlacJacMac wrote:
No. It really doesn't illustrate anything. 20 minutes isn't even a sample. And again, that's what happened with those 5 players on the floor. You have no idea who was responsible for any of it.

So as long as he can play with an MVP and other stars, he has a chance to not hurt you?

Meh. He's a negative player at this point in his career - on both sides of the ball.

Look at Embiid's lineup data. He's a "walking plus sign". Look at his 2 and 3 man combos. He drags everyone but Korkmaz and RoCo to respectability or better:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/lineups/2024


Look at the team without Embiid, that is my point. Of course his +/- looks bad when he is playing without the defensive anchor. How bad would everyone else be without Embiid dragging them to respectable. Morris would usually be playing with Rudy or at worst Karl behind him. He would be playing with a less top heavy Wolves.

Edit to add: according to Statmuse the 76ers are 5-13 without Embiid. They are 26-8 with Embiid. So if Morris isn’t playing that much with Embiid is it any surprise his numbers look bad. Teams tend to do better when the opposing star sits or misses the game.


You know EPM (which I included in my original post) accounts for that, right?


I honestly don’t. Can you please elaborate on the difference?

Also can you please tell me the EPM of the following 3 players for base line. Ant, Kyle, and Naz. Thank you again.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#969 » by TimberKat » Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:50 pm

I don't know looking at statistics is a good way to evaluate Marcus Morris' fit with the Wolves. I also don't expect many mins from both Morris brothers. They aren't anything like last year's Conley trade. Maybe at best they contribute like NAW did last year which is still just a spotty role player.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#970 » by Klomp » Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:03 pm

But does he have a hand warmer?

OK, retired mod suspended for baiting. Ignore that...
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#971 » by Klomp » Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:08 pm

winforlose wrote:Gonna preface this by saying HELL YES!

Read on Twitter
?s=20

I'll second that!

I've been reminding people on Twitter that Finch coached Marcus in his 2011-12 rookie season in Houston. I didn't connect an extra dot until now though...on that 2012-13 team with them both? Patrick Beverley. Him breaking the news makes more sense now, also since Morris and Beverley were together in Philadelphia for the first half of this season.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#972 » by KGdaBom » Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:29 pm

Klomp wrote:But does he have a hand warmer?

OK, retired mod suspended for baiting. Ignore that...

:lol: :lol:
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#973 » by WolfAddict » Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:41 pm

Not a Morris fan by any stretch, but if the decision makers at the Wolves thinks he'll help us, then what can I say as a fan? I watch it, they live it.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#974 » by Klomp » Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:04 pm

One criticism of this team has been the lack of guys who can go create their own shot. Marcus does have that ability.

He's also been a good minutes eater through his career. This first half in Philly is the first time averaging under 25 mpg since 2013-14, his third season.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#975 » by KGdaBom » Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:18 pm

Why haven't we signed Marcus Morris yet? does he want to wait until the all star break and have a nice long vacation?
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#976 » by BlacJacMac » Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:24 pm

KGdaBom wrote:Why haven't we signed Marcus Morris yet? does he want to wait until the all star break and have a nice long vacation?


Might have something to do with him not actually being waived...

Read on Twitter
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#977 » by KGdaBom » Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:48 pm

BlacJacMac wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:Why haven't we signed Marcus Morris yet? does he want to wait until the all star break and have a nice long vacation?


Might have something to do with him not actually being waived...

Read on Twitter

Why hasn't be been waived then :noway: . If they're going to do it why haven't they done it. Oh well thanks for the tip.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#978 » by Klomp » Tue Feb 13, 2024 12:15 am

KGdaBom wrote:Why hasn't be been waived then :noway: . If they're going to do it why haven't they done it. Oh well thanks for the tip.

Technically it sounds like a buyout is the plan...so they are likely negotiating the terms of the buyout.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#979 » by KGdaBom » Tue Feb 13, 2024 12:21 am

Klomp wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:Why hasn't be been waived then :noway: . If they're going to do it why haven't they done it. Oh well thanks for the tip.

Technically it sounds like a buyout is the plan...so they are likely negotiating the terms of the buyout.

Thanks for the info.
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Re: 2023 Free Agency 

Post#980 » by BlacJacMac » Tue Feb 13, 2024 12:21 am

Klomp wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:Why hasn't be been waived then :noway: . If they're going to do it why haven't they done it. Oh well thanks for the tip.

Technically it sounds like a buyout is the plan...so they are likely negotiating the terms of the buyout.


Not only that, but the buyout deadline isn't until March 1st...

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