Deng or Green

[Klomp]

If the same deal was on the table for each of these players, who would you want us to deal for?

[Esohny]

I don't really want either, unless the deal would be spectacular for us value-wise.

Gun to my head, I guess I'd go Deng; at least we know he's an above average 2-way SF when healthy.

[AQuintus]

Provided that the deal didn't involve Love, Jefferson, Flynn, or our pick; Green. Green might be a significantly better player at SF than he is at PF, or he might not be. Either way, he can at least be counted on to play. With Deng's injury history, he probably can't be.

If the deal included any of the above assets, though, I wouldn't want either.

[cpfsf]

I thought this was Deng versus Gerald Green. In the end, I'm just going to stick with Deng.

Deng: Better in rebounding, passing, 3PT shooting, and scoring. I don't need to get the per 36 comparison because they both play roughly 37 minutes.

[shrink]

Green would cost more in trade pieces, but I'd choose him. Even if he doesn't work out at the #3, at least we're rid of him in a year, and not stuck with the long contract. If the deals were identical, I'd take Deng.

[revprodeji]

If the same deal was on the table for each of these players, who would you want us to deal for?

Your initial premise is flawed.


Deng has a nasty contract, is older and is slightly the better player. We would likely give up less, but we need to take his cap and his injury condition into consideration. Also, he is out of of division. The appeal of Deng is that we could add him without giving up equal talent.

Green is one year younger, but has a smaller contract. He would need to be resigned next year as well. He is on a divisional rival and would cost much more to bring in then Deng.

So logically they could not be dealt for the same package.

[shangrila]

I think he's just talking about how you feel about each players, not what it would take to get them.

I'd have to choose Green. Younger, has got some more potential and fits just as well in the Triangle as Deng would. Also has experience on a running team and now has experience in pushing a young team to the playoffs.

[revprodeji]

Deng is a much better "fit" for the triangle. He can put it on the ground and make a move or 2. He does not need to go one on one, but the dribble or 2 is helpful. I also like his mid-range much more then Green.

Green is a smart player. He is one year younger, but is not as good of a ball handler.

Not saying it is the "end all" but Deng led his team in "simple rating" with a +5.9, Green was 11th with a -4.2

Deng has a +3.3 Net PER as a Sf, Green has a -.5

If Contracts do not count then clearly Deng is the better player, but also the better fit.

[Krapinsky]

Deng. I'm skeptical about whether Green can be a full time SF.

[revprodeji]

**ding ding** I agree with the good (fmr) Doctor.

Also, (once again) Green likely involves value of the Love or Al type. Deng would be cap based. Also, improving Chicago does not matter to me, improving OKC would make me upset.

[SpencerBusch]

I like Deng, he can play O and D when healthy. Id choose Deng if they had the same contract..i still would choose Deng now..even though his contracts not very good..would i trade for either one? More than likely no.

[shangrila]

The problem is whether Deng can stay healthy or not.

[Tommy Udo 6]

Gee, you guys have 2 Luol Threads so I will post this info in both:

Deng is Chicago's only "bad" contract cap wise. (Hinrich is overpaid but his contract is not a cap killer & it becomes a valuable expiring contract next year just before Rose's & Noah's extensions kick in.)

It is important to know that the Bulls "deferred" 30% of Deng's salary. Although the cap hit is allocated over 6 years (2 gone, 4 years to go), the Bulls are not actually paying Deng as much money as it seems. Eventually he will receive all the money in forms of annuities, but the Bulls are not actually paying it all themselves. As a result, if he is traded for a player without deferred money, the Bulls lose.

Look for Deng to be moved to a city with cap space which will appreciate the deferred money. I personally see Minnesota as a possibility since the Bulls would not have to take back a bad contract.

[shrink]

It is important to know that the Bulls "deferred" 30% of Deng's salary. Although the cap hit is allocated over 6 years (2 gone, 4 years to go), the Bulls are not actually paying Deng as much money as it seems. Eventually he will receive all the money in forms of annuities, but the Bulls are not actually paying it all themselves. As a result, if he is traded for a player without deferred money, the Bulls lose.

Look for Deng to be moved to a city with cap space which will appreciate the deferred money. I personally see Minnesota as a possibility since the Bulls would not have to take back a bad contract.

Can you go into more detail on this contract? Your post gives the impression that if the money is deferred until later, he will actually be owed more money, because he still has to receive the additional $5.9 mil income from the first two years. And if he's deferring it, I'm sure he's getting interest, right? Maybe I'm not understanding you, but what I think you're saying is this:

Year ........ Salary ... Actual ... still owe
2008-09 .... 9.385 ... 6.5695 ... 2.8155
2009-10 ... 10.365 ... 7.2555 ... 3.1095
2010-11 ... 11.345 ... 7.9415
2011-12 ... 12.325 ... 8.6275
2012-13 ... 13.365 ... 9.3555
2013-14 ... 14.275 ... 9.9925
2014-15 ............... 10.659
2015-16 ............... 10.659

In any event, paying a couple mil later doesn't seem like it would be a big deal to our billionaire owner, who's been willing to eat far more money in discounted ticket sales.

[Tommy Udo 6]

[

Can you go into more detail on this contract? Your post gives the impression that if the money is deferred until later, he will actually be owed more money, because he still has to receive the additional income from the first two years.

In any event, paying a couple mil later doesn't seem like it would be a big deal to our billionaire owner, who's been willing to eat far more money in discounted ticket sales.

Contract details are confidential - but Sam Smith has written - and confirmed in a personal email - that the contract is 30% deferred. Other Chicago writers have written also that the contract is 30% deferred (the max under the CBA)

Basically it means that eventually Deng will collect $71 million. However, over the 6 years of the contract, Deng collects only $51 million from the team. The cap hit is for $71 million, although Deng doesnt actually receive that much in 6 years.

When does Deng get the other $20 million? That is confidential but almost certainly it will be paid in the future by annuities. The Bulls purchased the annuities for Deng & his family & the payments will be made at some future date agreeable to Deng & the annuity company. Another team would not be responsible for any part of this, except perhaps to make any annuity payments that had not already been made by the Bulls.

If any team trades or Deng, they would only have to pay him the portion of the unused salary that is not deferred.

[the_bruce]

Deng by a mile or 2.

imo Deng is the better fit & better player by a large margin.

However, I'm not certain if I'd take on his contract. I've always been on the fence about deng to mn deals even for straight expirings.

[shrink]

I thought this was a nice simple summary

I wrote an article about this, basically stating that Luol, much like Kirk, has been over-valued by the Bulls franchise. When you take a peak at his overall numbers of 17 points and 7 boards a game, you see a player worthy of a $9-11 mil a year range. But that's only if we continue to look at Dengs stats at face value.

Luol played 38 minutes a game this year, 12th in the league, to get those numbers. (And please, skip the Iguodola guy. He's a #3 guy just like Luol). 38 minutes a game gets you 17 points and 7 boards. It also gets you under 75 games a year because that minute load breaks him down.

He gets his numbers on mostly jumpers. He doesn't finish that well at the rim, he still struggles to create his own shot, most of his shots come very early in the shot clock, etc. And he's not a 3 point threat to boot.

I like Deng overall as a 3rd option on a team with a good shooter. We don't have that. So instead we've got a guy with an escalating salary who just isn't that efficient.

Personally, I would point out that third options rarely get paid anymore .. $9-11 is for lower 1's and 2's. Deng's defense should be mentioned, but so should his high turnovers. I do not believe he is worth expirings.

[Casperkid23]

A simple search on Hoopdata shows that more than a few of his points are off-base, however.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Luol%20Deng

Over 60% at the rim, nearly 40% on long 2's, and has 3pt range but hasn't used it for whatever reason (had it in college, and showed it off again at the end of this year - while having posting well over 50% EFG three straight years).


Switching over to 82games.com
http://www.82games.com/0910/09CHI10.HTM

Most of his attempts are... spread throughout the shot clock.

From having watching him play many times since he was a high school senior, I'm not going to claim he's better than a #3 option offensively. However, his take was erroneous in my opinion, and I would much rather have Deng than I would Gay.

Can I ask how you came to the conclusion Deng has a high rate of TOs shrink? Or that 3rd options rarely get paid?

[shrink]

There's like three pages on the Bulls board in this thread about their frustrations with his turnovers, and a discussion on what true efficiency is.

As for the finances, let me get back to you. I've got to run soon, but I'll take a look at my spreadsheet and see if I can run a sort by team to see who a #3 option is for each team, then sort out the players that got contracts this year or last. In many cases, third options are developing guys still on rookie scale deals. New contracts (raises) are easily found at http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/r ... laries.htm in purple.

$13.5 Chris Paul
$13.5 Brandon Roy
$13.5 Deron Williams
$12.5 Bynum
$10.7 Aldridge
$10.1 Granger
$10.0 Bogut
$9.9 Rondo
$8.5 Bargnani
$7.7 Milsap
$7.5 Marvin Williams
$7.0 David Lee
$5.8 Rasheed
$5.5 Felton

Does Deng's older contract still fit in this economy? Keep in mind, Deng is longer than most of the non-max-deals as well. I guess a few of the title contenders pay for third's, but they have other skills (Bynum at center, Rondo as super-PG), but most of them do not.

2009-10 $10,365,000
2010-11 $11,345,000
2011-12 $12,325,000
2012-13 $13,305,000
2013-14 $14,275,000.

[cpfsf]

I noticed Iguodala wasn't mentioned as an option. I think I would rather have Deng, but both teams will have to offer more than just those two guys.