2010 Offseason Caproom Projections

[younggunsmn]

This is a leaguewide Caproom projection based off of the numbers off this database that shrink has linked to, which seems to be pretty accurate.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... dWc&gid=31

I figured a maximum obtainable caproom number based on a 56 million salary cap.
To do this I assumed most players with unguaranteed salaries would be waived.
I also included 1st round pick cap holds and assumed each team would be using their 1st round picks and not trading or selling them.
These projections will change for a few teams after the draft lottery.
Lastly I figured in minimum cap holds for open roster spots up to 12.
In short, this is the lowest number these teams can get to without making a trade or getting a player to give up guaranteed money in a buyout.

Here are the numbers.
On the right hand side I have listed key free agents including players who could likely opt out.
These players are not included when figuring the cap number for their team.
For example Dirk and Yao could both opt out.
If Yao left Houston would be sitting on 13 mil in cap room,
and if Lebron left Cleveland would have a max of about 9 million.

PO = Player Option
RFA = Restricted Free Agent

Rank Team Cap Room Key Free Agents
1 MIA 41,511,967 Dwyane Wade (PO), Udonis Haslem, J O'Neal
2 NYK 34,428,263 David Lee, T McGrady, A Harrington
3 NJ 26,238,145
4 WAS 21,636,680 Mike Miller
5 CHI 20,478,404
6 SAC 18,561,372
7 LAC 17,493,927
8 OKC 14,956,613
9 MIN 14,593,399 Darko Milicic
10 HOU 13,549,813 Yao Ming (PO), Luis Scola
11 PHX 11,121,055 Amare Stoudemire (PO), C Frye (PO)
12 CLE 9,149,051 Lebron James (PO)
13 ATL 5,985,374 Joe Johnson
14 TOR 5,937,367 Chris Bosh
15 MEM 5,612,711 Rudy Gay (RFA), Ronnie Brewer (RFA)
16 DAL 3,035,322 Dirk Nowitzki (PO), Brendan Haywood
17 MIL 302,899
18 GSW -114,140 Anthony Morrow (RFA)
19 DET -2,368,300
20 UTAH -4,546,059 Carlos Boozer
21 CHA -4,545,542 Raymond Felton, Tyrus Thomas (RFA)
22 IND -10,758,842
23 BOS -11,198,826 Ray Allen
24 PHI -12,642,042
25 SAS -13,590,966
26 POR -13,790,323
27 NO -18,002,249
28 DEN -19,693,497
29 ORL -27,577,330 JJ Redick (RFA)
30 LAL -29,680,049

[younggunsmn]

I created a database of 2010 cap numbers using the salaries from the link in my post above, I'd post the whole thing, but it looks pretty ugly in messageboard format, so I'll just give you the wolves and a couple other teams as an example.
The first # is salary, the 2nd # is salary after cutting a player or declining his option. In figuring this number I added a minimum cap hold to the total of a player who is cut, since the team gets a cap hold for his roster spot if the team is under 12 deals (including draftpick cap holds) after cutting the player.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Salary On Books Max Cap Room
1 Al Jefferson 13,000,000 13,000,000
2 Ryan Gomes 3,892,500 1,473,604 1 mil guaranteed, fully guaranteed after 6/30/2010
3 Ramon Sessions 3,964,320 3,964,320
4 Kevin Love 3,638,280 3,638,280
5 Johnny Flynn 3,192,000 3,192,000
6 Corey Brewer 3,703,472 3,703,472
7 Ricky Rubio 2,812,200 2,812,200 draft rights held (#5 2009)
8 Ryan Hollins 2,333,333 2,333,333
9 Wayne Ellington 1,078,800 1,078,800
10 #2 Pick 3,835,600 3,835,600
11 #16 Pick 1,371,200 1,371,200
12 #23 Pick 1,003,800 1,003,800
Total Salary 43,825,505 41,406,609
Cap Room 12,174,495 14,593,399

Free Agents 2009 Salary Cap Hold
C Darko Milicic 7,640,000 11,310,000
SF Damian Wilkins 3,630,000 7,260,000
C Oleksiy Pecherov 1,547,640 2,380,270
SG Sasha Pavlovic 1,500,000 1,800,000
C Nathan Jawai 736,420 854,389
SF Brian Cardinal 111,685 854,389


Miami Heat
Salary On Books Max Cap Room
1 Michael Beasley 4,962,240 4,962,240
2 James Jones 4,650,000 2,329,604 1.856 guaranteed, 15% TK
3 Daequan Cook 2,169,857 2,169,857
4 Mario Chalmers 854,389 473,604 Team Option
5 Kenny Hasbrouck 762,195 473,604 Team Option
6 #18 Pick 1,237,500 1,237,500
7 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
8 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
9 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
10 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
11 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
12 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
Total Salary 17,477,805 14,488,033
Cap Room 38,522,195 41,511,967

Free Agents 2009 Salary Cap Hold
C Jermaine O'Neal 23,016,000 24,166,800
SG Dwyane Wade 15,779,912 17,149,244 Player Option
SF Quentin Richardson 8,700,000 13,050,000
PF Udonis Haslem 7,100,000 10,650,000
SF Dorrell Wright 2,887,165 5,774,330
SG Yakhouba Diawara 945,000 1,228,500
C Jamaal Magliore 825,497 854,389
PF Alade Aminu 762,195


Chicago Bulls
Salary On Books Max Cap Room
1 Luol Deng 11,345,000 11,345,000
2 Kirk Hinrich 9,000,000 9,000,000
3 Derrick Rose 5,546,160 5,546,160
4 Joakim Noah 3,128,536 3,128,536
5 James Johnson 1,713,600 1,713,600
6 Taj Gibson 1,117,680 1,117,680
7 #17 Pick 1,302,600 1,302,600
8 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
9 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
10 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
11 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
12 Cap Hold 473,604 473,604
Total Salary 35,521,596 35,521,596
Cap Room 20,478,404 20,478,404


Free Agents 2009 Salary Cap Hold
C Brad Miller 12,250,000 19,316,500
PF Hakim Warrick 3,000,000 3,600,000
SF Joe Alexander 2,583,360 2,763,600
PG Acie Law 2,216,160 2,940,844
SG Flip Murray 1,990,900 2,388,000
PG Jannero Pargo 1,990,900 2,388,000
SG Devin Brown 1,162,951 1,511,836
PF Chris Richard 99,663 854,389

[shangrila]

Does anyone else like the idea of resigning Wilkens? He wouldn't be the 1st choice, but the team could do a lot worse with veterans then him this offseason.

[Varejao17]

Does anyone else like the idea of resigning Wilkens? He wouldn't be the 1st choice, but the team could do a lot worse with veterans then him this offseason.

I like the idea... When we traded for him I didn't expected nothing but he surprised me...

[The J Rocka]

This is a leaguewide Caproom projection based off of the numbers off this database that shrink has linked to, which seems to be pretty accurate.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... dWc&gid=31

I figured a maximum obtainable caproom number based on a 56 million salary cap.
To do this I assumed most players with unguaranteed salaries would be waived.
I also included 1st round pick cap holds and assumed each team would be using their 1st round picks and not trading or selling them.
These projections will change for a few teams after the draft lottery.
Lastly I figured in minimum cap holds for open roster spots up to 12.
In short, this is the lowest number these teams can get to without making a trade or getting a player to give up guaranteed money in a buyout.

Here are the numbers.
On the right hand side I have listed key free agents including players who could likely opt out.
These players are not included when figuring the cap number for their team.
For example Dirk and Yao could both opt out.
If Yao left Houston would be sitting on 13 mil in cap room,
and if Lebron left Cleveland would have a max of about 9 million.

PO = Player Option
RFA = Restricted Free Agent

Rank Team Cap Room Key Free Agents
1 MIA 41,511,967 Dwyane Wade (PO), Udonis Haslem, J O'Neal
2 NYK 34,428,263 David Lee, T McGrady, A Harrington
3 NJ 26,238,145
4 WAS 21,636,680 Mike Miller
5 CHI 20,478,404
6 SAC 18,561,372
7 LAC 17,493,927
8 OKC 14,956,613
9 MIN 14,593,399 Darko Milicic
10 HOU 13,549,813 Yao Ming (PO), Luis Scola
11 PHX 11,121,055 Amare Stoudemire (PO), C Frye (PO)
12 CLE 9,149,051 Lebron James (PO)
13 ATL 5,985,374 Joe Johnson
14 TOR 5,937,367 Chris Bosh
15 MEM 5,612,711 Rudy Gay (RFA), Ronnie Brewer (RFA)
16 DAL 3,035,322 Dirk Nowitzki (PO), Brendan Haywood
17 MIL 302,899
18 GSW -114,140 Anthony Morrow (RFA)
19 DET -2,368,300
20 UTAH -4,546,059 Carlos Boozer
21 CHA -4,545,542 Raymond Felton, Tyrus Thomas (RFA)
22 IND -10,758,842
23 BOS -11,198,826 Ray Allen
24 PHI -12,642,042
25 SAS -13,590,966
26 POR -13,790,323
27 NO -18,002,249
28 DEN -19,693,497
29 ORL -27,577,330 JJ Redick (RFA)
30 LAL -29,680,049

Possible Rudy Gay landing spots, if not re-signed, I think we have the upper hand compared to the other teams that will go after him.

[younggunsmn]

8 teams with more cap room than us? The only way I see Gay coming here is if friendships with Al and Jonny become the deciding factor.

Early predictions:
Wade stays, Bosh to MIA, Gay to MIA via S&T (Beasley)
James stays, Amare stays.
Johnson, Boozer, Haywood to NYK
Lee to NJ.
Darko re-signs 1 yr 5 mil.

[jade_hippo]

Does anyone else like the idea of resigning Wilkens? He wouldn't be the 1st choice, but the team could do a lot worse with veterans then him this offseason.

I like the idea... When we traded for him I didn't expected nothing but he surprised me...

I've supported bringing in Ime Udoku, but I'd be more than fine with Wilkins coming back, he never really drug us down while on the court and seems to be a decent role model/vet.