RealGM

For those who haven't been following closely,
Ryan Gomes' contract works like this:
Until 7/1/2010 it is guaranteed for only:
2010: 1 mil
2011: 1 mil
2012: 750,000

If he is not waived before 7/1/2010, however, he is fully guaranteed:
2010: 4,260,000
2011: 4,627,500
2012: 4,551,627 (player option)
Total: 13,439,127 over 3 Years
Potential Savings: 10,689,127-about 1.5 mil over 3 years for replacement cap holds.

This situation makes him a uniquely valuable trade chip until 7/1
because a team can open up immediate cap room for 2010 by trading him for a similiar
salaried player and then cutting Gomes. We may be able to pick up a nice asset or move
up/down on draft day using Gomes' unique contract.

Here are the other players in this situation (2010 Cap#:Guaranteed 2010 Sal)
cle: Delonte West 4,500,000:500,000
Dal: Erick Dampier: 13,078,000:0
Hou: Chuck Hayes: 2,334,125:0 (Team Option)
Mia: James Jones: 4,650,000:1,856,000 (2,553,500 with 15% trade kicker)
Guaranteed 5,952,000 over 3 years, which becomes 8,188,500 if traded.
Mil: Carlos Delfino: 3,500,000:1,500,000 (Mil GM has said he is coming back)
NJ: Keyon Dooling: 3,828,000:500,000
Was: Josh Howard 11,835,000:0 (Team Option)

Here are the Timberwolves tradeable players
and their salaries.

The 1st number is 2009 YR salary
The 2nd number is 2010 YR guaranteed salary
The 3rd number is the maximum salary we can take back
for each player under 125%+100k salary matching until 7/1.

Greg Stiemsma cannot be traded until 7/13/2010, which is 3 months after he signed.
Ryan Gomes 3,892,500:1,000,000:4,965,625
Wayne Ellington 1,003,560:1,078,800:1,354,450
Ryan Hollins 2,183,333:2,333,333:2,828,166
Corey Brewer 2,916,120:3,703,432:3,745,150
Jonny Flynn 2,969,280:3,192,000:3,811,600
Kevin Love 3,401,040:3,638,280:4,351,300
Ramon Sessions 3,670,667:3,964,320:4,688,333
Al Jefferson 12,000,000:13,000,000:15,100,000


Here are some possible packages,
and the amount we can take back under 125%+100k matching.
Depending on the number of players sent out or cut, if the other team opens up a roster
spot in the trade we must also deduct a 473,604 cap hold for each roster spot opened up
when figuring the cap savings of a potential trade.
Cap Savings figure is if the other team took back the max allowed under 125% matching.


Gomes: 4,965,625
Potential Cap Savings: 3,492,021 (with cap hold figured in)

Gomes+Ellington: 6,220,075
Cap Savings: 4,141,275-cap hold(s)

Gomes+Hollins: 7,693,791
Cap Savings: 4,510,458-cap hold(s)

Gomes+Brewer: 8,610,775
Cap Savings: 3,907,343-cap hold(s)

Gomes+Flynn: 8,677,225
Cap Savings: 4,485,225-cap hold(s)

Gomes+Love: 9,316,325
Cap Savings: 4,678,045-cap hold(s)

Gomes+Sessions: 9,653,958
Cap Savings: 4,689,638-cap hold(s)

Gomes+Jefferson: 19,965,625
Cap Savings: 5,965,625-cap hold(s)

So you can keep these numbers in mind when formulating trades.

This is the list of Base Year Compensation Players,
which makes them near impossible to salary match.
So cross them off the list of targets in a Gomes Deal (or any deal before 7/1):
Marvin Williams
Glen Davis
Raymond Felton
Danny Granger
Steve Novak
Andrew Bynum
Andrew Bogut
Ersan Ilyasova
Chris Paul
David Lee
Marcin Gortat
Paul Millsap
Deron Williams

Ideally we're looking for a player who expires after the 2010 season + a draft pick,
Or a good young player.

ATL: No Fit
BOS: K Perkins, but they wouldn't trade him.

CHA: Nazr Mohammed+2nds for Gomes+Hollins? Would free up 3 mil in 2011 cap room
,750 k in 2012, in exchange for 3.5 mil in 2010 cap room.
Too Bad they can't trade a 1st rounder until 2014.

CHI: Gomes+Sessions for Hinrich+Picks (#17 and 2012 Bobs)
Saves the Bulls 4,035,680 in 2010 cap room + 1,302,600 for #17.
Hinrich makes 8,500,000 in 2011, and will be a very tradeable expiring like Mike Miller.
Sessions is the perfect backup PG, or if they want to slide Rose over to the 2 at times.

CLE: no fit. Would be nice to combine Delonte West + Gomes in a 3 teamer, maybe with
Sessions going to CLE. 7 mil in potential cap savings for some team.
Could offer Delonte West in a Beasley deal.

DAL: No fit. Dampier's big unguaranteed deal is a huge asset to be dangled in a S&T for a
FA (Bosh, Johnson, etc.), I'm sure they'd love to swap Gomes for Deshawn Stevenson and use
Gomes to sweeten a S&T, but I don't see what they could offer outside of Beaubois, who
isn't going anywhere. Gomes needing to be cut by 6/30 to have value makes a 3-team S&T
worthless.

DEN: Gomes+Hollins for JR Smith (1yr 6.6 mil)
Saves Den 3.3 million in 2010, saves us 3 mil 2011 and 750k 2012.
Smith becomes a valuable expiring, and a great shooter at a pos of need.
Gomes+Ellington also works, and is more palatable for them,
but they do need big man help with the fragile Martin.
They may be able to do better for Smith, but I don't know if they get a team to
take him for cap space. Maybe the wizards, he'd fit in there.

DET: Gomes could be used to sweeten an Al for Prince/#7 deal if we were to take Jason
Maxiell and his 3yrs/15 mil left, which I'm not a fan of. Wilcox has a 3 mil player
option he'd have to exercise (like etan thomas did) if he were included.
Al/Gomes/Hollins for Prince/Maxiell/7 is a little more palatable for us,
costs us 2.33 mil for #7, otherwise 2010 contracts are about even. Costs us only about 1.6
mil in 2011 room and 4.24 mil in 2012 room.
In the unlikely event Det wins #1 or #2 pick, gomes could also be a valuable asset in a
pickswap if they demand we take vilanueva or Maxiell.

GSW: Gomes could be used as sweetener either in a trade of Love for their Pick, or if they
land top 2 in a pickswap.
Love/Gomes for Brandan Wright/Radmanovic/Pick(4,5,6).
Gomes/Flynn/Ellington/4 for Maggette/2. (overpaying, but it may take that to move from 4
to 2)

HOU: no fit.

IND: Sweetener to trade up into the 10th spot. They want to dump TJ Ford, and would like
to reduce his 8.5 mil cap hit. Bird can drop to 16, save $, and take Gordon Hayward. We
can jump up to 10 to snag Xavier Henry, Udoh, or another player who might drop like
Aldrich.
Gomes+Brewer works, so does Gomes+Hollins+Ellington and Gomes+Sessions.
I would like a Gomes/Hollins/Ellington for Ford/10 swap, IF we have a specific player
targeted for 10. Costs us 5.1 mil (picks and cap holds included) in 2010, saves us about
2.3 mil next year (picks included). Not a huge cost if it's the difference between getting
the player you covet or being stuck with a 3rd or 4th choice.

LAC: No fit.
LAL: No fit unless you're a Sasha Vajacic fan.
MEM: No fit

MIA: They want to dump 2 contracts, James Jones and Daequan Cook.
Cook is owed 1.3 mil 2009 and 2.1 mil 2010. Beasley is also available (4.96 2010).
Jones's trade kicker makes his unguaranteed money much less appealing.
8.2 mil over 3 years is a big cap hit to take for a dead contract.
They will likely have to include their pick and/or beasley to move it,
they are probably better off just cutting him themselves and moving beasley and cook.
We could offer Gomes and Ellington for Beasley and Cook, opening up 4.7 million in 2010 cap
room. It might be smarter for MIA to offer them straight up for cap space, or in a S&T,
but it will be to their advantage to have that cap room opened up the minute FA hits
instead of needing to clear it.
We would have little risk in taking a chance on Beasley, or could potentially use him as a
piece to lure Rudy Gay in a S&T.

MIL: No fit. If they pick a guy we want at 15 they could try to extort us by making us
take charlie Bell for Gomes.

NJ: No fit. Yi/Gomes works, but makes little sense either way.
They could offer Dooling/CDR for Beasley.

NOH: Mo Pete (6.2 mil) & 11 for Gomes/Ellington. Saves them 4.122 million +2.126 mil in
salary (120% scale) for #11. 6.248 mil total. I'm a big fan of this one if there is
someone we like at 11.
This would just about sneak them under the luxury tax. Otherwise
they face the prospect of dealing Collison or a future pick to move Mo Pete.
Songalia cannot be acquired again by the Wolves until 7/1, so cross him off any Gomes
deals.

NY: No fit.
OKC: Gomes+Hollins for Collison? Very bad trade partners.
ORL: No fit.

PHI: Sweetener in a Jefferson for Iguodala deal?
Gomes for Willie Green makes sense, but in what deal? A pickswap if they jump into the top
2?

PHX: No fit. Gomes/Hollins for Barbosa? Nah.

POR: Gomes for Martell Webster (2yr 10 mil +600k guaranteed 2012).
Gomes+Sessions for Andre Miller+Rudy Fernandez?
Not alot makes sense with Portland over the cap and willing to spend.

SAC: Enticement in a pickswap if sacto lands #2 and we land 4 or 5.
They would want to dump Nocioni, Udrih, or Francisco Garcia.
Gomes+Ellington works for udrih and garcia, gomes+hollins for Nocioni.
All 3 are bad deals, Nocioni's is the best of the 3,

SAS: No fit.

TOR: No fit. We could probably move up to their 13th pick if we were willing to swap Gomes
for Marcus Banks (1 yr, 4.87 mil). I wouldn't do it for 16, I would think about it if they
would take 23 for 13 and a banks/gomes swap.

UTAH: No fit. Gomes for CJ Miles works, but they are sitting alright capwise as long as
they let Boozer walk.

WAS: No fit. They have a ton of cap room.

I very much expect Gomes's contract to be included in a draft day trade.

Great post younggunsm! Well, you probably guessed I'd love it.

I particularly like the idea of getting value from a pick. Now, this isn't because we'd like a fourth pick (though I'd hope we could consolidate to move up). What I like is that a buy would do a deal like this to save 2010 cap space, and moving the pick now saves additional cap space for them, before it becomes a player, and/or they'd need to take some matching salary back for it.

I'd also one of the possibilities I've liked is post's trade where we acquire Kirilenko and the NYK pick for a package they'd like. I think it goes something like this:

DET GIVES: Prince + #7
DET GETS: Jefferson

UTA GIVES: Kirilenko + #9
UTA GETS: Prince + Gomes

MIN GIVES: Jefferson + Gomes
MIN GETS: Kirilenko + #7 + #9

UTA would probably only do this if they were keeping Boozer and needed the cap space. Swapping from Kirilenko to Prince saves them $6.7 mil less Gomes, so they could get under the lux, which I think they need to do in their small market.

shrink wrote:I'd also one of the possibilities I've liked is post's trade where we acquire Kirilenko and the NYK pick for a package they'd like. I think it goes something like this:

DET GIVES: Prince + #7
DET GETS: Jefferson

UTA GIVES: Kirilenko + #9
UTA GETS: Prince + Gomes

MIN GIVES: Jefferson + Gomes
MIN GETS: Kirilenko + #7 + #9

UTA would probably only do this if they were keeping Boozer and needed the cap space. Swapping from Kirilenko to Prince saves them $6.7 mil less Gomes, so they could get under the lux, which I think they need to do in their small market.

I would hope that we could also package those picks to move up further. I also think Utah would want more. Is the #16 too steep?

Packaged with another piece for a piece is the best situation. A team in any kind of fiscal problems would have appeal for him.

I knew you'd like it shrink.
Nice creativity with the 7&9 deal. Would be sweet, but I think Utah is ready to let Boozer go, they were expecting him to walk last offseason. That #9 pick is more important to their future I think.

The Draft Lottery will be a big deal, because if we fall out of the top 2, trading back into the top 2 will probably become priority 1, and gomes will obviously be prime trade bait for that, to sacto and gs in particular. If we land top 2, we can get more creative with gomes.

Personally I like the NOH trade best, I also like the beasley deal, and the hinrich/picks deal.

Using him to move up from 16 or 23 is intriguing too.

I wouldn't be opposed to the JR Smith or Nazr Mohammed deals, we'd be moving 3 mil off our 2011 cap and picking up expiring rotation players (always good trade assets).

He could be enough incentive to finish a jefferson or love deal if the value is not quite there. Iguodala+green for Al+gomes for example.

Whatever we do, moving him instead of cutting him ourselves will cost us some cap room this year and take us out of whatever longshot we have at a FA like rudy gay.

Great read.

You are right though, this all changes drastically when the ping pong balls drop. Once we know the order we can narrow down some of these options.

Its good to see that we have options to move around with virtually anyone who may land a pick ahead of us.

younggunsmn wrote: Personally I like the NOH trade best, I also like the beasley deal, and the hinrich/picks deal....

Ironically, I made a similar post on the trade board before I visited here with both MIA and NOH, which included a partially guaranteed deal as well. Just too bad it isn't ours.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1010139&start=0

MIA GIVES: James Jones + Cook (exp) + MIA 1st (#18) + $3 mil cash
MIA GETS: $8,465,297 additional 2010 Cap Space

NOH GIVES: Songalia (exp)
NOH GETS: James Jones (partially guaranteed)

WAS GIVES: TPE's
WAS GETS: MIA 1st (#18) + Songalia (exp) + Cook (exp) + $3 mil cash

younggunsmn wrote: Personally I like the NOH trade best, I also like the beasley deal, and the hinrich/picks deal.

I didn't see this. I hope its not true.

ESPN, Chris Sheridan I think it was said that New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington are 3 possible teams that could have interest in Beasley.

Great post Younggunsmn! Its clear that you spent a lot ot time and gave us so much to read, you gotta love it. I have two questions:

1) what on that list do people think is our best option? I agree that Gomes is gone by July first (probably during the draft) but where to?

2) you mentioned Al Jeff for Iggy, is there a thread that exists for this topic? I think acquiring someone like Granger or Iggy who is on a team that might be persuaded to blow it up and rebuild is exactly what we should be trying to do. Can someone show a rookie where to go to read more discussion on what other people think about this? I have only seen snippets of this conversation.

Awesome post, thanks for all your effort!

Thanks guys. Just putting the info and possible scenarios out there, feel free to come up with your own.

To answer your questions Peezo,
1. The ideal scenario depends on where we land in the draft lottery. If we don't land top 2, I would say the best scenario would be using gomes in a trade up for evan turner. If we land 2, my favorite scenario is gomes/ellington for mo pete/11, and landing a great prospect at 11 like greg monroe, xavier henry, paul george, or aldrich if he falls. Kahn missed out on Tyreke Evans last year because he (rumored) wasn't willing to trade ahead of chicago for the player Sacto wanted at 18 (James Johnson). I think this year he will do whatever it takes to get the 1 or 2 players he really covets.

2. A Granger or Iggy type deal was discussed quite a bit on this board during the season. It is doubtful Indiana would move Granger, but there is speculation if he became available we would have no problem offering something like Love/Flynn for him. Feel free to look around, dig up old threads, or start your own if you have a deal in mind. Beware getting too creative on other teams' boards, fans tend to overvalue their own players (us included sometimes). I don't know how much sense Al to Philly makes while Brand is still there, and Brand's contract is completely unmovable.

shrink wrote:

younggunsmn wrote: Personally I like the NOH trade best, I also like the beasley deal, and the hinrich/picks deal.

I didn't see this. I hope its not true.

ESPN, Chris Sheridan I think it was said that New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington are 3 possible teams that could have interest in Beasley.

If it makes you feel better, I think Washington has the best shot at Beasley because of the 2 big trade exceptions they have. New Jersey and Cleveland also have a better shot with Dooling and Delonte West's smaller unguaranteed deals.

I would be pretty surprised to see a team hoarding cap room take James Jones in a salary dump along with Beasley, without Miami severely overpaying, that trade kicker really sours that contract. Even after cutting him a team would owe 8.2 million to him over 3 years. I tried and tried to work a 3-teamer where a team took Jones, but even NOH didn't make much sense to me to take his deal just to save 2.5 mil or so this year.

Pacer Fan here:

How about TJ Ford (expiring), Foster (expiring) and our #10 lottery pick (your already have 2, 16 and 23)

for

Flynn, Jefferson (4 year deal) and your #23 (you then get 2, 10 and 16)

blueandgold wrote:Pacer Fan here:

How about TJ Ford (expiring), Foster (expiring) and our #10 lottery pick (your already have 2, 16 and 23)

for

Flynn, Jefferson (4 year deal) and your #23 (you then get 2, 10 and 16)

Nah.

Nothing at 10 worth that and the contract dump of Al Jefferson isn't exactly like taking on a scrub on a major contract - he has value.

OK. You get #10 for for none of your picks. You then have 4 first round. The #10 could be trade bait for other moves. Other teams may covet or want #10.

blueandgold wrote:OK. You get #10 for for none of your picks. You then have 4 first round. The #10 could be trade bait for other moves. Other teams may covet or want #10.

It's not even close. Instant hang up from our end.

blueandgold wrote:Pacer Fan here:

How about TJ Ford (expiring), Foster (expiring) and our #10 lottery pick (your already have 2, 16 and 23)

for

Flynn, Jefferson (4 year deal) and your #23 (you then get 2, 10 and 16)

Jefferson is a really good player, and Flynn is a talented young player on a rookie contract. And we give up a 1st in addition to that just for a late lottery pick? That's really awful value for us.

God no. I wouldn't trade Jefferson straight up for the #10

Maybe I would trade Flynn for the 10 (and add in the 23 if the right player was available there), but that's the extent of it.