RealGM

With all of the discussion on pick trades over the last few weeks, I thought I'd write a bit about what my personal usage demand is for the top lottery picks. For fans of other teams, I just wanted to give you an idea of what's valuable here, and why.

MIN's biggest need isn't about position or physical characteristics .. its for a potential franchise player. At this point in time, the Wolves are unlikely to be able to acquire one right now in free agency or through trade (if we hope to retain him long). If we're going to find one, we need to get players that have the potential - even if its unlikely -of becoming that player. If we used a vague 10-point $ scale to show gaps

PICKS

#1 .. $10 .. John Wall .. clearly more valuable than any player

#2 .. $8.5 .. Evan Turner .. an obvious #2 pick, and a terrific fit for what we want to do.

#3-4 .. $7.0 .. DeMarcus Cousins/Derek Favors .. both have great physical ability with varying degrees of polish. Neither is a great fit for us right now, but we are likely to trade Jefferson or Love, or other big men to make room.

#5 .. $5.0 .. Wes Johnson .. Nowhere near the upside of the top 4, but he'd still be a significantly better fit for us.

#6 and lower .. $3.0 and worse ... Everyone Else There are certainly some decent players outside the Top 5, but I would not trade even two #6's for the #4, and the chance Cousin's upside could help this team for many years.

OTHER PLAYERS:

Let me also name a few players that are often mentioned, and slide them into the thread:

$9.0 Ricky Rubio. David Kahn has linked his career to Rubio, calling him such things as a "transformational" player, and comparing him to Pistol Pete Maravich. He embodies a high ceiling, which is what MIN urgently needs, despite the risk. And of course, with such a high personal value to the Wolves, he's basically untradable, because no GM could make a reasonable trade at this level of value.

$6.5 Kevin Love. He's the NBA's best RB/MIN guy, two years running and he's just a boy.

$6.0 Anthony Randolph. He carries the upside MIN needs, but compared to picks, he's had two years to show more, and even if he does, he's two years closer to getting paid

$5.5 Al Jefferson. Exceptional rebounder and exceptional low post scorer, but higher price. I expect his trade value to increase by the deadline, two years from injury risks, so I'd prefer to hold off on trading him low. Additional return depends on how the salary gap is handled between a cheap pick and Al.

IMPLICATIONS FOR OTHER TEAMS:

SAC #5: The #5 pick is probably more valuable to MIN than to SAC, since the Kings have a couple decent options at the 3 already in Casspi and Donta Green. Getting the 5 is valuable to the Wolves because it jumps in front of GSW, who might take Johnson if he's on the board at #6. This might make for a good chance to trade down, because SAC may get additional value, and still be able to select the same guy they would have picked at #5. Jefferson + #23 for Nocioni (2 yr) + #5 + cap space may make some sense to some, though others have cooled on it.

GSW #6: GSW would like to move up, but the pick doesn't have as much value as the #4 (with real upside) or #5, in case SAC takes Turner. There are a lot of different ways GSW can go with the #6, so if they can't move up, it may make sense to move down a pick or two and recoup additional value. There are a lot of combinations both ways, and its one of thereasons I made this post.

DET #7: We've discussed the #7 for two months, though some on both sides are cooling to the Jefferson for #7 + Prince deal. It makes some sense for both sides, in an imperfect way. DET could certainly use a great low post scorer, great rebounder with defensive flaws, and it would definitiely improve the team. MIN probably can't get one of the players they want with the #7 (Johnson), but it makes a decent asset to put in a trade. Both sides have options to wiggle the trade value, which would help in three-team trades.

I think there a few later guys who could turn out to be stars. Paul George really strikes me as a star someday, he reminds me of Granger and Rudy Gay.

moss_is_1 wrote:I think there a few later guys who could turn out to be stars.

Oh, I don't disagree at all. there are always players that become stars from lower picks, but their chances are far smaller than the top four, and a team's chance of finding the one that does is pretty low. I like George, and I embarrassingly like Whiteside, but they are still longshots compared to even the Top 4.

shrink wrote:

moss_is_1 wrote:I think there a few later guys who could turn out to be stars.

Oh, I don't disagree at all. there are always players that become stars from lower picks, but their chances are far smaller than the top four, and a team's chance of finding the one that does is pretty low. I like George, and I embarrassingly like Whiteside, but they are still longshots compared to even the Top 4.

oh yes, Whiteside definitely has the skills, I was confused at first as to what you were saying.

Using these valuations you're saying Love has more value then the 6th and 7th pick combined. That doesn't seem right to me.

I think 100 point scale makes it easier.

Wall = 100

Turner = 85

Favors = 75

Cousins = 70

Johnson = 60

#6-8 = 45

#9-10 = 35

#11-12 = 30

Love = 65? Randolph = 60?

Somehting around there

Kevin Love = 70?

Randolph = 65?

Favors would probably be almost equal to Turner IMO. I'd also say Love is even to Cousins.

shrink wrote:#3-4 .. $7.0 .. DeMarcus Cousins/Derek Favors .. both have great physical ability with varying degrees of polish. Neither is a great fit for us right now, but we are likely to trade Jefferson or Love, or other big men to make room.

I disagree with this. I'd say that Favors is clearly ahead of Cousins for the Wolves. Favors' biggest advantages are athleticism and defense, two things that the Wolves desperately need. Cousins' main advantages are size, which the Wolves need, and low post scoring, which the Wolves have in spades.

The big difference is that Favors' skill set allows him to fit in with all of Jefferson, Love, Pekovic, or Darko. Cousins only really fits with Love and/or Darko, which limits our trade options.

Furthermore, Kahn and Rambis are committed to developing a running team around Rubio. Favors fits significantly better in a running offense and much better with Rubio.

In fact, I'd go as far as saying that Favors is a better fit for the Wolves than Turner, who only really fits with the Wolves pseudo-Triangle and not running offense and not with Rubio.

Edit:

Also, Favors has much better intangibles. I don't think I've read a scouting report that hasn't spoken positively about Favors' coachability (is this a real word?) and work ethic. I'd say that Cousins and Favors have similar ceilings (both higher than Turner's), but Favors' has a much, much high chance of reaching his ceiling.

Krapinsky wrote:Using these valuations you're saying Love has more value then the 6th and 7th pick combined. That doesn't seem right to me.

I initially intended it to just show the gaps, and have some relative size difference to the gaps. When we talk about distributions with extreme values, simple additive methods will always fail. i.e., two Wes Johnson's won't get you John Wall. I think I might have sucked myself in at the end though.

I like the $ analogy Shrink. Here is mine:
Wall $10
Turner $7.75
Favors $7.50
Cousins $7.25
Johnson $6.50
Love $6
Jefferson $5.00
Randolph $5.00

There are players with lottery pick value who I think just don't fit here,
so I will not put a value on them.
Aminu, Monroe, Hayward, Patterson, Orton, E. Davis, Aldrich

George $4.75
Henry $4.50
Babbitt $4.25
#16 Pick $3.50
Whiteside $3.50
J Anderson $2.75
Alabi $2.50
Seraphim $2.25
S Robinson $2.25
#23 Pick $2.00
Most players below here:
1.75 and down

Here is my "slot-value" ranking based on who is likely to be available at each spot:
1. $10
2. $8
3. $7.50
4. $7.00
5. $6.25
6. $5.50
7. $4.75
8. $4.50
9. $4.40
10. $4.30
11. $4.20
12. $4.00
13. $3.90
14. $3.75
15. $3.60
16. $3.50
17. $3.25
18. $3.00
19. $2.80
20. $2.60
21. $2.40
22. $2.20
23. $2.00

In my opinion big tier dropoffs around 5 and 15, and a good pocket of value for wing players around 9-12.

I think if you are looking at it strictly as a FRANCHISE player, and not overall quality of the player, then I think I'd put Love lower. I like him a lot, would love to somehow add him to Portland, but I can't see any way he's going to become a franchise player. He's going to be a hell of a player, for sure. I think, strictly on that, Randolph has a better chance of being a franchise player. I in no way think he actually WILL, but based off of their games, skill sets, etc., I think Randolph's upside could, I suppose, be that of a franchise guy. I think Love's floor is probably closer to what Randolph will actually end up achieving, but I think that's the difficulty I see with Love in the equation, and looking for a franchise guy. To me, he is what he is. I think Wes Johnson has a better chance at being that as well. Again, he probably won't. I personally wouldn't trade Love for either of those two. Hopefully doesn't come across as bashing Love. Again, I like him a lot, just saying his value in something like this looks skewed, with a franchise player rating, because I can't ever see his best case being that.

Just for curiosity's sake, how much is the right to Ricky Business worth?

Only one player in this draft will land you ricky, and that is wall. so $8.50-$9.00.
Kahn has put his rep on the line with Rubio, he isn't going anywhere, regardless of what other fanbases/GM's think of his play or signability.

younggunsmn wrote:Only one player in this draft will land you ricky, and that is wall. so $8.50-$9.00.
Kahn has put his rep on the line with Rubio, he isn't going anywhere, regardless of what other fanbases/GM's think of his play or signability.

All of Kahn's "eggs" are in the Rubio basket. I would put it at $9, maybe $9.50. That's not to say that he will be on the same level talent/player-wise as Wall, but that's how important he is to the Wolves future.

Wall $10
Cousins $8.25
Turner $7.75
Favors $7.50
Johnson $6.50
Love $6
Randolph $6.00
Whiteside $5.50
Monroe $4.00
Aminu $3.00

This kind of parallels my odds sheet which I'm uploading to my blog tomorrow. Kind of hard to do with flat money scales, however - my rating is kind of an exponential thing (Wall is 4.50 currently, Favors 2.90, Henry 1.06, George 0.78, Anderson 0.54, etc.).

Wall: $9.75
Favors: $7.25
Turner: $7.20
Cousins: $7.15
Johnson: $4.25
Davis: $3.50
Henry: $3.50

Others (to gauge value):
George: $3.00
Udoh: $2.75
Whiteside: $2.75
Anderson: $2.00
Sanders: $1.50
Alabi: $1.10

Love: $4.50
Randolph: $4.25
Flynn: $2.25
Brewer: $1.75
Ellington: $1.00

It's funny because at this point last year, or before he got hurt, Al Jeff probably was worth the 2nd pick in the draft. Now some folks won't even take him for the 5th and a bad contract.

I think if we can't get the 5th for Al Jeff, we just keep him. Someone will get desperate at the deadline next season, and maybe by then Al will be back and better than ever.

MattyP wrote:

younggunsmn wrote:Only one player in this draft will land you ricky, and that is wall. so $8.50-$9.00.
Kahn has put his rep on the line with Rubio, he isn't going anywhere, regardless of what other fanbases/GM's think of his play or signability.

All of Kahn's "eggs" are in the Rubio basket. I would put it at $9, maybe $9.50. That's not to say that he will be on the same level talent/player-wise as Wall, but that's how important he is to the Wolves future.

Agreed, and well said guys. This is kind of why he's pretty untradable -- no other GM could rationally match that offer.

Good point Guy - such a good point that I'm going to go back and edit Rubio in, because I think people would be curious.