Financials: Why Rubio won't come in 2011
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 5:55 am
I posted this in another thread, but I wanted to get a serious objective discussion going about exclusively the financial motivations and disincentives for Rubio to come over in 2011. I wanted a more limited discussion on this topic alone, which is why I did not post it in Rubio thread.
I believed Kahn when he said Rubio would come over next year, because I wanted to, despite financial logic. I no longer do, because it would be a horrible financial decision for Rubio. After this draft, I've lost any confidence that Kahn is a better judge than the average joe. Hopefully someone can reconvince me other wise.
Why Rubio won't come:
He showed with his previous decision(I'm assuming all of us know the details of the original situation) that financial considerations are very important to him. This shows me he and his team are smart.
Why coming in 2011 is a bad financial decision:
1. Rookie Contract. He comes over in 2011, he is bound to this. $16.3 million max over four years I believe.
2. NBA lockout. All sources point to the fact that it is going to happen. He will not get paid the first year of his deal if it does. The threat of it may be enough to keep him away. Why? because:
3. Virtual Free agent. If he waits one more year, he can basically negotiate a contract with the wolves. Think about it: How much will David Kahn pay to get Rubio over here? Did you picture a mountain of gold? I did and if Rubio's team didn't, they haven't been paying attention.
If he came he would be agreeing to a contract the first year of which would be voided by the lockout anyways.
In the end the cost to him of coming over and signing a rookie contract could easily range in the $16 million dollar range over three years.(this includes the diffence between a four year rookie salary and an estimated 8 million a year free agent deal(which we all know Kahn would pay)+ the difference in pay he would make in a working year in Europe vs. a lockout year in the NBA.
Think about it: how much is one year of sitting out worth to you? 16 million dollars? it is to me.
On the sad plus side....if it is a lockout year, no one is playing anyways. I just think it is weird that Kahn doesn't ever acknowledge that the lockout is a possibility. I'm sick of him saying Ricky will come next year when it makes no sense from Rubio's perspective. Sorry David, it ain't happening till 2012 at the earliest. Unless Rubio makes a stupid decision. Please prove me wrong.
I believed Kahn when he said Rubio would come over next year, because I wanted to, despite financial logic. I no longer do, because it would be a horrible financial decision for Rubio. After this draft, I've lost any confidence that Kahn is a better judge than the average joe. Hopefully someone can reconvince me other wise.
Why Rubio won't come:
He showed with his previous decision(I'm assuming all of us know the details of the original situation) that financial considerations are very important to him. This shows me he and his team are smart.
Why coming in 2011 is a bad financial decision:
1. Rookie Contract. He comes over in 2011, he is bound to this. $16.3 million max over four years I believe.
2. NBA lockout. All sources point to the fact that it is going to happen. He will not get paid the first year of his deal if it does. The threat of it may be enough to keep him away. Why? because:
3. Virtual Free agent. If he waits one more year, he can basically negotiate a contract with the wolves. Think about it: How much will David Kahn pay to get Rubio over here? Did you picture a mountain of gold? I did and if Rubio's team didn't, they haven't been paying attention.
If he came he would be agreeing to a contract the first year of which would be voided by the lockout anyways.
In the end the cost to him of coming over and signing a rookie contract could easily range in the $16 million dollar range over three years.(this includes the diffence between a four year rookie salary and an estimated 8 million a year free agent deal(which we all know Kahn would pay)+ the difference in pay he would make in a working year in Europe vs. a lockout year in the NBA.
Think about it: how much is one year of sitting out worth to you? 16 million dollars? it is to me.
On the sad plus side....if it is a lockout year, no one is playing anyways. I just think it is weird that Kahn doesn't ever acknowledge that the lockout is a possibility. I'm sick of him saying Ricky will come next year when it makes no sense from Rubio's perspective. Sorry David, it ain't happening till 2012 at the earliest. Unless Rubio makes a stupid decision. Please prove me wrong.