Carmelo and Cap Space, for Fun & Profit

[shrink]

Today Carmelo Anthony announced that he would sign and extension if he was traded to one of three teams, and in a surprise to no one, Minnesota did not make that list. However, whether he goes to NYK, NJN, or HOU, none of these teams have an asset that Denver would probably love .. raw cap space. The Nuggets are currently $11.8 mil over the lux with only 12 players on their roster. If they could get $12 mil in raw cap space, it would save them about $27 million dollars .. a very very nice return for a team that won't be heading to the play-offs without Anthony.

This gives MIN an opportunity to turn their cap space into production. All three teams will be putting together their best offers for Anthony. Suppose HOU wants to offer Kevin Martin + the 2011 HOU 1st (and it's option to swap this pick with NYK's .. top 1 protected). DEN would certainly rather have cap space. I struggle to think that Martin is worth $10.6 mil, but he's certainly not worth the $21+ that DEN would be paying. We could help HOU up their offer like this:

HOU GIVES: Kevin Martin + 2011 HOU 1st (top 1 protected pickswap with NYK) + 2012 NYK 1st (Top 5 protected) + Buddinger + Jordan Hill
HOU GETS: Carmelo Anthony

DEN GIVES: Carmelo Anthony
DEN GETS: 2011 HOU 1st (top 1 protected pickswap with NYK) + $12.4 mil in cap space ($27 mil savings) + Buddinger + Jordan Hill + Koufos

MIN GIVES: $9.4 mil in cap space + Koufos
MIN GETS: Kevin Martin + 2012 NYK 1st (Top 5 protected)

Now, this is just an example, but the bidding for Carmelo will be fierce. Not only is he a superstar, but he has the potential to bring Chris Paul to the same team next year (as Paul hinted at Carmelo's wedding). Each of these teams is going to do whatever they can to give DEN the best offer. Whatever cap space a team can add to a deal will defniitely enhance it for DEN.

[shrink]

Incidentally, I thought I'd list the big contracts from the three contenders:

MIN GIVES: cap space
NYK GIVES: Eddy Curry's ($11.3 mil expiring) + ___________________ .

It feels like NYK doesn't have much to offer us, if Randolph and Gallinari head to DEN, and HOU has their picks.

MIN GIVES: cap space
NJN GIVES: Troy Murphy ($12 mil expiring) + _________________

Nets have to be kicking themselves for wasting their cap space on Murphy last week.

MIN GIVES: cap space
HOU GIVES: Kevin Martin (3 years at $11.5 mil/yr) + ____________________

or if Yao is hurt:

MIN GIVES: cap space
HOU GIVES: Yao Ming ($17.7 mil expiring) + ___________________

(likely buy out)

[Esohny]

I know you're giving examples, but didn't Kahn specifically say that he hated Martin's contract?

Personally though, even though I think Martin is made of glass, I'd probably do that, especially if we were able to get some of those Knicks assets in the deal.

[shrink]

I know you're giving examples, but didn't Kahn specifically say that he hated Martin's contract?

Personally though, even though I think Martin is made of glass, I'd probably do that, especially if we were able to get some of those Knicks assets in the deal.

I don't like Martin's contract either, so I'd want incentive. I would prefer taking on one of these less-prodiuctive expirings, but again, only if the incentive was right.

The factors I like here is:
1. Carmelo's value is extremely high, so a team will pay a lot
2. There will be three teams bidding competitively, raising those prices.

[Klomp]

Heres my proposal for what I think will/should happen (sorry, no Minnesota involved):

NYK Trades: Danilo Gallinari, Ronny Turiaf, Eddy Curry, 2011 1st
DEN Trades: Carmelo Anthony, Chris Andersen

Why for DEN: Gallinari is a very good, young SF prospect. The deal also saves Denver over $3 million (which is over $6 million in luxury tax savings). Additionally, the Andersen for Turiaf swap saves them from paying three additional years of salary for a similar level player.

Why for NYK: Isn't it obvious enough? They get the CLEAR talent upgrade.

ESPN Trade Machine Link: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachi ... Id=2fpzkk2

[shrink]

Heres my proposal for what I think will/should happen (sorry, no Minnesota involved):

NYK Trades: Danilo Gallinari, Ronny Turiaf, Eddy Curry, 2011 1st
DEN Trades: Carmelo Anthony, Chris Andersen

Why for DEN: Gallinari is a very good, young SF prospect. The deal also saves Denver over $3 million (which is over $6 million in luxury tax savings). Additionally, the Andersen for Turiaf swap saves them from paying three additional years of salary for a similar level player.

Why for NYK: Isn't it obvious enough? They get the CLEAR talent upgrade.

ESPN Trade Machine Link: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachi ... Id=2fpzkk2

It won't happen now, for a few reasons.

1. Before Carmelo Anthony said he'd be willing to go to three places, perhaps this value would get a deal done. Now that he's mentioned NYK, NJN and HOU, there will be an auction, and both the Nets and Rockets would outbid NYK, if this was their final offer.

2. NYK traded away the rights to swap their 2011 pick with HOU (top 1 protected) and their 2012 pick as well.

NYK's offer will need to be both Gallinari and Anthony Randolph, and they have to hope that the Nets and Rockets don't outbid that.

[Stephen S]

I think these two deals might be interesting...

First, Telfair and Koufos to Charolette for Dampier...it gives CHA a center and a 3rd pg while keeping them under lux and giving them about 9 million trade exception. No draft or cash consideration going either way and makes what I am about to suggest more palatable...

Second,

DEN out Melo and Smith, in Martin, Budinger, and Patterson plus 2 1sts and cash consideration from Houston. This deal gets DEN a solid player (Martin), a good prospect (Patterson), a role player (Budinger) and whatever draft consideration and cash they can get

Houston out Martin, Budinger, Patterson, and Jeffries plus draft and cash considerations, Hou in Melo and Smith

Wolves in Jeffries and whatever draft considerations are left.

From our perspective,

Tefair 2.7 + Koufos 1.2 - Jeffries 6.8 = -2.9. So...what is 2.9 million in pure cap space worth?

But, that's not the end, what is 15.6 million worth to the DEN? That is how much they could have to pay with lux (more or less) if they don't pull us (or Sacramento) in to pull some of the dead weight out.

I think we should get a 1st and a 2nd to take Jeffries on. I don't see anyone on either team we should acquire at this point, so that doesn't seem like an option.

On second glance, I am not sure this is the best package Den can get, getting under that tax seems to me to be a major goal in any deal involve Melo

[shrink]

I should also point out that HOU is only $3.2 mil over the lux themselves, and teams this close generally try to wiggle under the lux themselves. For example, Morley made a terrific deal at the deadline that not only added value, but wiggled them under. If HOU could shed $3.2 mil, it would save them close to $10 million dollars.

Together, MIN could get them both HOU and DEN under the lux by absorbing $15 mil. right now, we have $9 mil in raw cap space, but as Stephen S points out, we could get to $15 easily using Dampier. Every day Dampier isn't traded, he's one day closer to the start of the NBA year and getting that first big paycheck from CHA, which is good news for us.

I'll work on this deal later today, but this seems like a tremendous way to get value for our cap space, since $15 mil would save two teams about $36 million dollars, and Melo provides huge incentive as well.

[Swimmer]

So this thread is about DEN/MIN/XXX trades (XXX=NJN, NYK, HOU)? I think part of the issue is that the XXX team needs to have enough rebuilding assets for two teams (the price for Carmelo, and the price for MIN's cap space). IMO, neither Houston or New York have enough.

[Dewey]

funny how people are image driven by NY...

Trade Beasley,etc for Melo

Great 8:
Rubio/Ridnour
Melo/Brewer/Johnson
Love/Darko/Pekovic

[shrink]

I played with the HOU offer a bit in a three-way and I'm not thrilled. I could use advice on who gets too little, and who gets too much.

First though, here is the 2-team offer: FAIR for DEN and HOU?:

DEN GETS ($15.3): Aaron Brooks + Jordan Hill + Kevin Martin + HOU 1st (rights to swap with NYK) + $1.8 ($3.6 mil savings)

HOU GETS ($17.1): Carmelo Anthony

I think this offer might be enough to outbid NJN, and certainly NYK. It fills DEN's roster as well.
===============================
However, I question whether DEN would even want Kevin Martin. The Nuggets are $12 mil over the lux, so Kevin Martin's $10.6 mil salary is effect costs them around $25 mil .. if an alternative for cap space is available, that could slide them under the lux. Kevin Martin slows down a rebuild, moving DEN to mid-pack, and their picks probably outside the Top 10. And how many K-Marts does one team really need?

But is the difference between a producive Kevin Martin and $25 mil worth that HOU 1st, that has a slim chance of being #2? I'm not sure, but that's a lot of money, and the other three teams would struggle to offer that much cap space for a team that needs to start again (and not get stuck in the middle

Fair for DEN? Kevin Martin + 2011 HOU Pick (w/pickswap) or $25 million
=================================================

Next, adding Melo would be a huge victory, but one nuance is that it puts HOU even a bit farther over the lux. That's a shame, because they are only $1.54 mil over the lux right now, and shedding that slice of salary would save them about $6 mil. This deal adds another $2 mil ($4 mil with lux), so getting under would save HOU $10 mil. I think if that would be worth the 2012 NYK pick to save that money, and by performing both services, MIN could ask for both those NYK picks that HOU ironically got for moving Jeffries to create cap space. They only need $4 mil .. not the full amount $6.8, so we could send Telfair to help cover minutes now that Brooks is gone.

FAIR for HOU? Jared Jeffries (exp) + NYK 2012 for $4 mil in cap space ($10 mil in savings) + Telfair (exp)

===================================================

Combined, the deal works like this:

HOU IN ($19,849,243) Carmelo Anthony + $7 million in savings + Telfair
HOU OUT ($22,170,017) Aaron Brooks + Jordan Hill + Kevin Martin + Jeffries + HOU 2011 + NYK 2012

DEN IN ($4,686,212) Aaron Brooks + Jordan Hill + $27 million in savings
DEN OUT($17,149,243) Anthony

MIN IN ($17,483,805) Kevin Martin + Jeffries + HOU 2011 + NYK 2012
MIN OUT ($2,700,000) $14.7 mil in cap space + Telfair


HOU adds Carmelo Anthony for parts and saves money.

DEN gets a great prospect, a good one, and a huge huge savings.

MIN uses $14.7 mil to buy two potentially decent picks, and adds Kevin Martin. MIN needs to add $6 mil in raw cap space to get here. I'd suggest packaging Brewer + Hayward + Koufos for $6 mil in cap space and a lottery-protected pick to a team looking for young players and a big TPE, like CLE or TOR. MIN ends with three decent picks, and a more stream-lined roster.

[skorff26]

I was thinking of something along the lines of the Den/Hou/MN deals as well

Charlotte Out: Dampier
In: Koufos, Telfair
-been discussed by others

Minnesota Out: Brewer, Telfair, Koufos
In: Kenyon Martin, 2011 Hou 1st (rights to swap with NY), 3 million cash
-we take a chance on NY being bad this year, plus if Martin gets healthy, we could maybe flop him to a playoff team somewhere for a different expiring + something of value

Denver Out: Kenyon Martin, Melo
In: Dampier, Kevin Martin, 2012 NY 1st, Patterson, Brewer, Budinger, Jeffries
-not a bad return for Melo, plus they get very close to the luxury tax (I think just under it) and they would save about 30 million in total (13 million x 2 (luxury tax) + 3 millionish luxury tax payouts)

Houston Out: 3 million cash, Kevin Martin, 2011 Hou 1st (right to swap with NY), 2012 NY 1st, Patterson, Jeffries, Budinger
In: Melo
-they get Melo enough said, plus they get under the luxury tax too I think... I could see them even including a future 1st, Hill, or something else as well

[the_bruce]

The best I can do is....

Part #1:
Chandler + 3m for Henrys rights

Part #2
Nyk in: Melo
Nyk out: Gallinari, Henrys rights, Randolph, Curry, +3m

PHI in: Gallinari, Curry
PHI out: Iggy

DEN in: Iggy, Randolph, Henrys rights, + 3m
Den out: Melo

Denver can then flip randolph for picks, or picks + cap relief.

Keep iggy till trade deadline. If they are doing ok keep him. If not drop him from the books and get under the cap and save 25m, could probably get pick(s) for him too. So basicly if denver isn't doing well whoever had Dampiers contract last could swap the TPE for Iggy. Denver gets under the cap and gets a recent lotto pick in henry. Plus whatever Randolph can net, lets just assume 2 picks 10-25.

Best case scenario:
Henry
late lotto - Mid 1st (randolph return)
late lotto - Mid 1st (randolph return)
late lotto - Mid 1st (Iggy return)
late lotto - Mid 1st (iggy return)
+25m

Starting 5: Nene/Kmart/Iggy/Smith/Billups

At the deadline if DEN isn't a playoff team they can also.
Trade Nene for exp
Plan to pay only the Gaurenteed portion to billups next season
Trade harrington for exp (his contract is good for his skillset imo)
Trade Andersen (his contract is reasonable for his skillset)

Rebuild starting 5 next season: ???/???/???/Henry/Lawson
If they keep Randolph: ???/Randolph/???/Henry/Lawson
If they keep Iggy: ???/Randolph/Iggy/Henry/Lawson (-25m)

[Swimmer]

@shrink -- IMO, Denver gets the short end of that stick. I actually think maaaybe New York and definitely New Jersey can offer a better package for Melo. Really, anything built around Favors.

I also don't believe Houston would want to salary dump by adding a pick (I know that in your scenario, Denver would be the one salary dumping him, but Denver would build that into the cost of dealing with Houston).

@skorff -- I don't know if I'd do that. I don't see the Houston pick/swap as much better than say, a 15th pick, and we have to give up both a ton of money (Martin) and some talent (Brewer) to attain it. Granted, I don't view dumping Koufos or Telfair as a necessity, and if you do, I could see the merit in this.

@bruce -- Can you explain why Philadelphia is in this deal? I feel like they would be pretty hesitant to pull the trigger on this, but what is wrong with a direct NYK offer to Denver?

[the_bruce]

If I'm PHI Gallinari on a rookie contract is a great return for Iggy. He can spread the floor and hit 3's. Good pairing with turner imo.

Hawes/Speights
Brand/Young
Gallinari
Turner
Holliday

That's a good young core. Plus removes the conflict between both iggy and Turner needing the ball to be effective. They can also showcase brand during the season and attempt to move him at the deadline if he somehow returns to form.

Nyk can't really deal directly with DEN. If DEN rebuilds they will want flexibility and NYK can't provide that. Dealing directly what does DEN get.

Randolph, Gallinari, Curry, & Chandler. Doesn't make the competitive this year either. Plus they will still be on the hook for the lux as it's doubtful they can move Curry + Gallinari for full cap space to save 25m. NYK can't make an attractive offer directly. They already blew their picks and assets moving jefferies. They do have some solid pieces. Randolph and Gallinari are both attractive in my eyes, but not as attractive as 25m & picks

[skorff26]

@skorff -- I don't know if I'd do that. I don't see the Houston pick/swap as much better than say, a 15th pick, and we have to give up both a ton of money (Martin) and some talent (Brewer) to attain it. Granted, I don't view dumping Koufos or Telfair as a necessity, and if you do, I could see the merit in ?

I think that their pick will be much higher, it's worth a gamble but I think it's one that might really benefit us.

Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Miami, MIlwaukee, and Orlando should all be ahead of New York next year; I also think Charlotte, Indiana, New Jersey, and Philadelphia will be better then them as well and I could actually see New York finishing at the bottom of the east.

-I think giving up Brewer (I like him but I think Kahn will move him soon anyway) and our cap space is worth the risk, another top 10 pick could push our team over the top

[revprodeji]

I am so sick of draft picks and future assets.

[Swimmer]

I think that their pick will be much higher, it's worth a gamble but I think it's one that might really benefit us.

Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Miami, MIlwaukee, and Orlando should all be ahead of New York next year; I also think Charlotte, Indiana, New Jersey, and Philadelphia will be better then them as well and I could actually see New York finishing at the bottom of the east.

-I think giving up Brewer (I like him but I think Kahn will move him soon anyway) and our cap space is worth the risk, another top 10 pick could push our team over the top

I think 6-7 teams in the East and 8-9 teams in the West will end up beating the Knicks. I don't think Felton/Chandler/Gallo/Randolph/Amare or whatever they will be running will be bad for a running team. Defensively questionable... sure. But so were the old D'Antoni Phoenix teams.

If the pick is indeed 10-12ish, we can use the Aldrich trade as precedent. He was a 10-12 pick, received for taking on a salary (6.5M exp) and giving 2 later first rounders. You are proposing taking on 12M in expirings (Martin - Telfair - Koufos) and giving Brewer. I think Minnesota loses out a little there, and more if the pick is worse.

[shrink]

I am so sick of draft picks and future assets.

I hear ya, but unused cap space doesn't float my boat.

[Swimmer]

I am so sick of draft picks and future assets.

I hear ya, but unused cap space doesn't float my boat.

I think our capspace will end up being unused, or maybe a few million spent on a small deal. The team is probably content with its young, cheap team, and will just try to work on building that up while maintaining low costs.