No Fun with Cap Space

[shrink]

I wanted to post to clear up a few misconceptions on our cap space situation. The biggest is this:

After the trade deadline, consider it gone. We spent it last season.

Last summer, we added salary from ten new players not just for this year, but for 2010-11:

Beasley
Webster
Milicic
Pekovic
Ridnour
Wes Johnson
Tolliver
Koufos
Ellington
Hayward

plus we have up to three picks in 2010 with guaranteed salary. We will also have salaries from Love and maybe Rubio and/or Flynn as well. I highly doubt we have the room/money to keep Corey Brewer.

Where does this leave us? I think after the cap hold for our picks, we will barely have about $5 mil left under the cap, and that's meaningless money if the MLE exists after the new CBA.

This means if we're going to spend the $11.8 mil cap space, we need to do it by the deadline.

[GopherIt!]

use that cap space in a trade for Iggy?


Shrink, do you have the link for Wyn's 2010-11 salary spreadsheet?

[Klomp]

Where does this leave us? I think after the cap hold for our picks, we will barely have about $5 mil left under the cap, and that's meaningless money if the MLE exists after the new CBA.

This means if we're going to spend the $11.8 mil cap space, we need to do it by the deadline.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... SXc&gid=19

We are currently sitting $11,768,619 below the salary cap at $46,275,381. Next year, we have ~$3.1m less money committed to three fewer players (Brewer, Telfair, Gaines). If the season ended today, we would have rookie salaries for the #2 (4,746,480) and #25 (1,144,800), but the top-14 protected Memphis pick currently sits at #12. That puts us at $52,166,661. I'm pretty sure that when Rubio signs, it will be by the salary scale of the current draft class. If so, his $3,480,120 brings the team salary to $55,646,781 committed to 15 players. According to the spreadsheet, the projected cap is $60,070,000. That means we have $4,423,219 to spend on 0 open roster spaces.

Any more questions?

[shrink]

Klomp kicks a$$

[Krapinsky]

I don't think there's a team that will be desperate to shave salary during this season, other than Denver if they decide to ship Melo. All the other teams facing lux tax penalties are playoff mainstays who routinely pay tax hits.

[revprodeji]

Interesting post. I knew this, but never put it together.

I think this means we should try and pull deals in order to use our cap space before it dries up.

Also, do we need to be under the cap to sign Rubio? I cannot remember.

[Worm Guts]

Also, do we need to be under the cap to sign Rubio? I cannot remember.

No, he's a draft pick.

[the_bruce]

This is the list of teams above or around the lux within a few mil

They Don't care
BOS
DAL
DEN
LAL
ORL
POR
SAS
UTA

They might care & might have usable assets:
ATL
PHI
HOU
MEM

[revprodeji]

Also, do we need to be under the cap to sign Rubio? I cannot remember.

No, he's a draft pick.

Yes, I understand that, and I believe if we sign him to the rookie scale that it does not effect us. I thought there was a clause where he could opt out of that scale, but we would still own his rights, and sign for more. It has been too long since I talked about this.

[Esohny]

Also, do we need to be under the cap to sign Rubio? I cannot remember.

No, he's a draft pick.

Yes, I understand that, and I believe if we sign him to the rookie scale that it does not effect us. I thought there was a clause where he could opt out of that scale, but we would still own his rights, and sign for more. It has been too long since I talked about this.

As I understand it:

Under the current CBA, if Rubio were to stay overseas one more year after this one, he could be signed for either his rookie scale contract, or whatever cap space we would have free.

[the_bruce]

Also, do we need to be under the cap to sign Rubio? I cannot remember.

No, he's a draft pick.

Yes, I understand that, and I believe if we sign him to the rookie scale that it does not effect us. I thought there was a clause where he could opt out of that scale, but we would still own his rights, and sign for more. It has been too long since I talked about this.

Thats only if he doesn't come over next year. He isn't bound to rookie scale.

[Twolves98]

And still a year away we are going to have to resign Beasley and Love.. That may not be cheap either

[shrink]

This is the list of teams above or around the lux within a few mil

They Don't care
BOS
DAL
DEN
LAL
ORL
POR
SAS
UTA

They might care & might have usable assets:
ATL
PHI
HOU
MEM

This is a good start, but keep in mind that we already have play-off caliber teams trying to dump salary that is unnecessary for their on-court goals (like even LAL trying to get rid of Sasha). DEN has one of the richer owners in the NBA, but he already put the kibosh on a Melo deal that included Favors because it raised payroll. Last year UTA was very much in the play-off hunt, and got rid of a valuable Maynor, simply for lux reasons. The lux is a powerful motivator.

Next, teams like SAS, POR, and HOU will have a lot of motivation to get under the lux. None are more than $2 mil over it, and if they get under, they get the doubled lux money plus they retain their lux share. So for example, They may have a lot of motivation to trade a $2 mil guy for cap space, because it would effectively save them $7 mil, and he might not be a $7 mil producer.

Finally, I think you're right that very few owners are willing to pay over the lux if they aren't a contender. However, also keep in mind that teams may look like contenders now are not necessarily going to look like contenders on February 19th. Not only are we likely to see teams realize they don't have the ponies to keep up with the superstar-laden teams, but a bad streak or an injury could put many of these teams out of contention.

[shangrila]

Right now, neither of Love or Beasley are max contract players and I'm fairly sure they know it. Beasley might develop into one and Love will get a nice contract, probably around 10 mil a year, but I doubt they'll eat up all of our capspace.

[the_bruce]

Next, teams like SAS, POR, and HOU will have a lot of motivation to get under the lux. None are more than $2 mil over it, and if they get under, they get the doubled lux money plus they retain their lux share. So for example, They may have a lot of motivation to trade a $2 mil guy for cap space, because it would effectively save them $7 mil, and he might not be a $7 mil producer.

The problem with the on the edge of the lux teams is they don't have any appealing talent. Ya sure they might do a pay cash + whatever MN pockets 500k for some cap space I guess.

Babbit?
Patterson?
Hill?
Buddinger?
Hou has those picks and swaps I guess too.

So really the only team with motivation that can provide real value on this list is HOU.

[Krapinsky]

Rudy + Pryz for Telfair + Brewer? Is that enough incentive for us or are you guys over the Rudy thing.

[The J Rocka]

Rudy + Pryz for Telfair + Brewer? Is that enough incentive for us or are you guys over the Rudy thing.

Not sure if Portland wants to part with Pryz, not yet anyways. They got a real shortage on bigs.

[cpfsf]

Rudy + Pryz for Telfair + Brewer? Is that enough incentive for us or are you guys over the Rudy thing.

Not sure if Portland wants to part with Pryz, not yet anyways. They got a real shortage on bigs.

Oden really isn't the best insurance policy.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Koufos could go be a blazer

[shangrila]

Koufos can go be anyone. I'm tired of his face