Flynn or Webster Who's return is more important?

[the_bruce]

...and why?

I'm sort of on the fence about this question. Webster was clearly our best player in preseason. Johnny provides an entirely new aspect to the team because he can penetrate and get in the lane. I know Jim Peterson said during a broadcast he expects Websters return to be a huge positive impact on the team.

After watching the GSW game and seeing the carnage that Ellis brought. I made the decision that Flynn is going to really bring a whole new aspect to this team. While Bassy has been good in spurts he doesn't have the athletic ability to get by his man and create havok in the paint, he's also just a streaky shooter. Ridnour does a lot of ball pounding, but doesn't really penetrate and cause chaos for the opposing team.

What a lot of people don't realize about Flynn is that his USG rate was really high for a rookie @ 24%. This is the list of active rookie first seasons who've had a usg rate above 24%, shot above .400 and had a decent amount of assists above 5.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=d3SqI

List: Tyreke, Lebron, wall, flynn

If we jack the usg down to above 20%. This is our much bigger list.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=fR6bH

List additions: CP3, Rose, Curry, Collison, Deron, Arenas, Nelson, stuckey, brooks, A. miller

List of PGs who take 5 or more shots at the rim pace adjusted. (i.e. They penetrate)
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx? ... p=0&mins=0

Tyreke Evans
Russell Westbrook
Rodney Stuckey
Tony Parker
Derrick Rose
Rajon Rondo
Sergio Rodriguez
Andre Miller
Baron Davis
Devin Harris
Ramon Sessions
Ty Lawson
Jerryd Bayless
Lou Williams
Darren Collison
Jonny Flynn
Aaron Brooks

List of PGs who take 4 or more shots 16-23 feet pace adjusted & have 15% or less Ast%. (i.e. They operate on the wing and penetrate and dish, or create a shot themselves)
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx? ... p=0&mins=0

Chris Paul
Jameer Nelson
Steve Nash
Tyreke Evans
Jonny Flynn
Baron Davis
Russell Westbrook
Brandon Jennings

List of PGs who take 3 or more shots 3pt pace adjusted & have 60% or less Ast%.
(i.e. They operate & create their own shot beyond the 3pt line)
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx? ... p=0&mins=0
Rose, Rondo, and Tyreke were both on this list, but were removed because they shot less than 3att per 40 pace adjusted.

Steve Nash
Baron Davis
Chris Paul
Deron Williams
Chauncey Billups
Jose Juan Barea
Nate Robinson
Jonny Flynn
Brandon Jennings

Note: all of the hoopdata.com stuff was done manually in a spreadsheet. Removed references to players who only played a few games and had limited sample size.

What this team lacks is something I think flynn is gonna bring to the table. It should also be noted that while flynn is appearing on some very lofty lists of PG's he had larger turnover ratios and typically shot less % than elite PG's that have been in the league for several years. Which I think is to be expected.

Also I'm not certain this style of play is suited to flynns strengths. While he's doing things he's good at like getting to the rim at an ok rate and creating similar numbers for these markers. At times last year everyone seemed to feel like flynn had handcuffs on trying to to fit into the system. Like Rambis wouldnt let him loose. He doing so while not relying on pick and roll play which many of these guards heavily rely on for these types of situations.

Is this more fitting his game to the system or fitting the system to his game?

The bad...

Turnovers.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=OI2rg
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=aIbmR

Lack of PF's (i.e. he's not defending hard enough, or close enough)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=YUQmE

Low efg (first four seasons):
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=bu1BK

<10 feet from the rim. Flynn lacks a floater and doesn't really excel in this area of the court imo. He does a good job of operating here and creating his own shot however with a low AST%. In general he's simply not converting at an amazing rate here.

10-15 feet from the rim. I don't feel like he operates well in this range either lack of floater again? Again He does a good job of operating here and creating his own shot. Again not converting at an amazing rate.

[revprodeji]

I love me some adv stats. Its like fiber for my bball mind.

The issue is that we know his offense will improve (even more now that the PG has a decent role) but his defense was beyond turrible last year. Some have suggested that he was the worst rotation guard at defense in the league. He needs to drastically improve that.

[the_bruce]

I agree here. flynn is way behind defensively. He spent 2 years in syracuse zone based defense. He simply doesnt understand how to defend yet. He has the potential to be a very good on the ball defender due to his athleticism.

[Tha Juice]

Good question. I can see these answers going both ways but I like the return of Webster more right now because he's a more well rounded player then Flynn (who would probably come off the bench to start as well). It also seems like our starters right now are able to hang with most teams until we head to the bench and thats when opposing teams start to go on runs and build a lead. Having Webster will give the second unit someone who is able to create his own shot, score, and play solid defense.

[Krapinsky]

I don't know. They'll both help. Flynn will be rustier so Webster might have a bigger imapct in the short term.

[shrink]

Since wins are not that important right now, it is far more important for Flynn to get back, and demonstrate health and his ability to play defense, to raise his trade value.

If we are acting under the assumption Rubio will be joining us, and Ridnour is out back-up for the next four years, Flynn will need to be dealt, at the latest, by next summer. This season may be his only chance for starter minutes, and the production that draws trade interest. Last year, we were offered the tenth pick from IND for him. Next summer, halfways through his rookie scale, he probably needs to demonstrate health and not just nba aptitude but progress from last season to maintain this trade value. The faster he gets on the court, the better for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

[eyeteeth]

Cold water territory? Neither guy means much right now, or probably for a little while yet. Being healthy enough to play is one thing, but being at game speed and in sync with the rest of the team is where it's at. I'm guessing Martell will be quicker to that point, for what that's worth. He also is much more likely to be a reliable presence. His jump shot and passing will be a big shot in the arm for us.

Talking about reliability, I remember stretches last season where I just wondered what Jonny was doing on the floor, both in terms of what was he doing and in terms of why was he there. Hopefully the improved supporting cast makes a positive difference in Jonny's game, but we will see. It will be nice to have his confident and capable drive to the basket back. In that context, I can realistically see Wes and Beasley benefiting from Jonny's return as defenses pay attention to Jonny and as he passes out to them off of drives. It is possible that we will see some really great chemistry develop between Darko and Jonny. That could be huge.

So immediate benefit? Neither. Short term? Martell more. Long term, Jonny more.

This will also be a big test for Jonny's mental capabilities. I think we will know by February if he can cut it with this team and this offense. I think if he does, we might not trade him. He has pretty high potential. Let's hope it goes well.

[LOBO 7]

Since wins are not that important right now, it is far more important for Flynn to get back, and demonstrate health and his ability to play defense, to raise his trade value.

If we are acting under the assumption Rubio will be joining us, and Ridnour is out back-up for the next four years, Flynn will need to be dealt, at the latest, by next summer. This season may be his only chance for starter minutes, and the production that draws trade interest. Last year, we were offered the tenth pick from IND for him. Next summer, halfways through his rookie scale, he probably needs to demonstrate health and not just nba aptitude but progress from last season to maintain this trade value. The faster he gets on the court, the better for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I agree that Flynn's return will be slightly more important to us, but not at all for the same reason. I really don't think we should trade him until we see both him and Rubio on this team at the same time. Once Rubio comes over, it is safe to assume he won't be ready for huge minutes right away, so I think the best option would be to give both Flynn and Rubio about 25 minutes a game until one of them shows that they are ready for legit starter minutes. I'm really high on Rubio, but I think it's unrealistic to assume he'll be ready for 35 MPG right away, and Flynn still has a lot of upside. The last thing I want to do is trade either of them away prematurely, then watch the traded player blow up for another team while the one we kept struggles. With all the heat Kahn took for drafting them back-to-back, the best way to handle the situation is to make sure that one of them becomes our franchise PG going forward, and the best way to determine that is to let them compete against each other for that role.

In terms of impact on this season, the inadequacy of our PG play so far cannot be overstated. I think I can count the number of times our PGs have broken down the defense to create a shot for themselves or a teammate on one hand. With all our improved shooting this season, we have been woefully unable to create shots for our shooters, and I think Flynn's ability to break down a defense will make a huge difference. Also, I think Flynn's ability to create shots for others has been underrated. Last year he did a pretty good job of it, but nobody could knock down a shot. Also, I see him making it a personal priority to get Wes more involved by trying to create shots for him.

Webster will also be huge for us, but I think Flynn, once he reaches 100%, will remind us why he was such a high pick and also remind us how bad Ridnour and Telfair have been.

[shangrila]

We need them both since Ridnour/Bassy and Brewer have both equally sucked lately, but I think it has to be Webster. We miss the veteran presence, he's more well rounded and anything that means less playing time for Brewer is a positive for this team.

[Tha Juice]

So immediate benefit? Neither. Short term? Martell more. Long term, Jonny more.

This will also be a big test for Jonny's mental capabilities. I think we will know by February if he can cut it with this team and this offense. I think if he does, we might not trade him. He has pretty high potential. Let's hope it goes well.

Agreed. I know this has been said before but I'm hoping Flynn saw/ learned the offense being ran and defense from a different perspective by talking with coaches, film, and watching on the bench during games this season and can apply that to the court once he returns. I don't expect it right away but as the season progresses I hope to see some of those results.

[Krapinsky]

Prediction: in two weeks people will be saying Webster is our second best player, after kLove.

[shangrila]

I don't know whether that would be a good or bad thing.

[moss_is_1]

Although I agree with Krapinsky about Martell being our 2nd best player...I think that Flynn's return is more important just because Bassy sucks. At least Wes and Beasley are good(and Brewer sometimes) so we aren't hurt as bad when they play...compared to when Bassy is in or Ridnour sucking.

[Krapinsky]

Although I agree with Krapinsky about Martell being our 2nd best player...I think that Flynn's return is more important just because Bassy sucks. At least Wes and Beasley are good(and Brewer sometimes) so we aren't hurt as bad when they play...compared to when Bassy is in or Ridnour sucking.

Right, but Stinger 'Tell probably won't be cutting into Beasley/Wes minutes. It means less Brewer/Ellington and right now I think Brewer/Ellington is a much weaker link than Bassy/Luke minutes.

[Wingman]

The one that makes Sebastion disappear.

[eyeteeth]

Prediction: in two weeks people will be saying Webster is our second best player, after kLove.

That would be nice.

[younggunsmn]

Although I agree with Krapinsky about Martell being our 2nd best player...I think that Flynn's return is more important just because Bassy sucks. At least Wes and Beasley are good(and Brewer sometimes) so we aren't hurt as bad when they play...compared to when Bassy is in or Ridnour sucking.

Right, but Stinger 'Tell probably won't be cutting into Beasley/Wes minutes. It means less Brewer/Ellington and right now I think Brewer/Ellington is a much weaker link than Bassy/Luke minutes.

I sure hope you are right, but I'm bracing for disappointment. Rambis has been playing Brewer over Wes at the end of close games, and Wes's confidence is shot.

If webster's return relegates brewer to dnp-cd's it will be manna from basketball heaven 2.0

[Esohny]

No kidding. I pray Brewer and Telfair gets pushed to garbage minutes with the return of Jonny and Webster.

[shangrila]

Brewer I get but Telfair? So far he's been playing better then Ridnour has.

[Esohny]

Brewer I get but Telfair? So far he's been playing better then Ridnour has.

Not really, even if Ridnour hasn't exactly been impressive. Telfair is still awful.