Numbers dont lie. Bring Wes off the bench

Ice32 · Post #1 » by **Ice32** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 2:32 pm

Hate me for this, I don’t care. Wolves suck and it’s time for a change.

Basketball is a numbers game, and the numbers don’t lie. Here are the numbers for Corey Brewer vs. Wes Johnson at the SG spot when playing 29+ minutes per game:

*Wolves are 3 and 4 with Brewer - .429 (loss margin of 5.7 pts)
*Wolves are 3 and 10 with Wes - .230 (loss margin of 12.1 pts)

*In those 13 games, Wes got to the FT line just 11 times and hit them at 81%. Brewer got there 19 times and hit them at 84%.

*Brewers +/- is better. Brewers PER is higher. Net points per 100 possessions, Brewer is still better.

*6 games this season when Wes scores 14 points or more, he’s scored just 12 pts total in those 4th qtrs (2.0 pts avg. in the 4th)

*5 games this season when Brewer scores 14 points or more, he’s scored 19 pts total in those 4th qtrs (3.8 pts avg. in the 4th)

*vs. Utah and Clippers this week, Brewer played a total of 4 minutes in both 4th quarters. Both games were losses. When Brewer plays 20 minutes or fewer, Wolves are 0 and 6.

*When Brewer starts at SG, he averages 13.3 ppg and hits 43% from the field, 60% from three and 83% from the FT line.

*Brewer has 52 steals to his 41 turnovers. Wes has 14 steals to his 45 turnovers.

Let’s make a change, our dismal record of 6-24 needs to improve quickly. I can guarantee that Wes would become a better scorer for the Wolves off the bench. He and Webster would make an awesome combo offensively. Having Brewer start at SG, the Wolves play better defensively. The numbers show that when he’s on the court for extended time, the Wolves are in the positive more than the negative. Defense wins games. Wes can become a go-to scorer in the 2nd Unit.

Minutes should be:

PG – Ridnour – 26-30, Flynn – 18-22
SG – Brewer – 26-30, Wes – 18-22
SF – Beasley – 20-24, Webster – 24-28
PF – Love – 28-32, Beasley – 16-20
C – Milicic – 22-26, Love – 10-14, Koufos – 10-14

Post #2 » by **Klomp** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 2:49 pm

I support this, but most Brewer haters here probably won't.

NewWolvesOrder · Post #3 » by **NewWolvesOrder** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 2:52 pm

Brewer must go.

Post #4 » by **C.lupus** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 2:58 pm

I'd rather start Webster in place of Wes.

Piecake · Post #5 » by **Piecake** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 2:59 pm

Foye · Post #6 » by **Foye** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 3:26 pm

Give me Webster over both Brewer and Johnson.

lewdog · Post #7 » by **lewdog** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 4:48 pm

(This summer), didn't Kahn tell us that Webster put up insane numbers at a starter last year?
Couldn't hurt.

Yes We Kahn · Post #8 » by **Yes We Kahn** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 5:42 pm

Ice32 wrote:Here are the numbers for Corey Brewer vs. Wes Johnson at the SG spot when playing 29+ minutes per game:

*Wolves are 3 and 4 with Brewer - .429 (loss margin of 5.7 pts)
*Wolves are 3 and 10 with Wes - .230 (loss margin of 12.1 pts)

And we are:
4-20 when Love plays 29+ minutes - .167 (average loss margin of 11.45 points)
5-18 when Beasley plays 29+ minutes - .217 (average loss margin of 9.78 points)
3-9 when Darko plays 29+ minutes - .250 (average loss margin of 8.67)
2-12 when Ridnour plays 29+ minutes - .143 (average loss margin of 9.08)
(3-10 when Wes plays 29+ minutes - .230 (average loss margin of 12.1)

When you put that all together?
17-69 = .198 winning percentage (average loss margin of 10.33)

And:
6-24 when the Wolves play 29+ minutes - .200 (average loss margin of 12.58)

Should we replace all of our starters, or are the Wolves just not that good as a team yet? That stat is more representative of playing for the Wolves than anything else. Starters play more minutes, therefore they have a larger sample size. If Brewer starts playing 29+ more, it will start to even out.

Does Corey bring some positive things to the table? Absolutely. So does Wes. However, we know what we have with Corey whereas Wes still has the opportunity to grow. Its not like we are going to make the playoffs. I'd rather give him the minutes and thus more opportunity to expand his game.

Devilzsidewalk · Post #9 » by **Devilzsidewalk** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 5:55 pm

*Wolves are 0 for five thousand when leading by double digits after 3 quarters

Piecake · Post #10 » by **Piecake** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 6:08 pm

Brewer has also caused 5 heart attacks and 7 premature births because of his erratic and frustrating play

Ice32 · Post #11 » by **Ice32** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:13 pm

Ha ha, nice feedback....

Yeah Wes is a rookie and needs time to grow, blah, blah, blah

Wolves need wins, a change has to happen. True that Webster could be the better option over Wes, but we need Websters scoring punch and defensive off the bench.

Wes would become MORE agressive off the bench, look at Jason Terry. The dude averages 32 minutes and 16 points. Always up for 6th man. This would help Wes understand the game better and how he can impact it offensively.

Websters stats as a starter last season with the Blazers:

Starts- 49
Mins - 30.3
FG% - 41.9
3PT% - 39.2
FT% - 76.2
Rebs - 4.1
Asts - 0.9
Stls - 0.7
Pts - 11.9

Not exactly insane numbers.....Brewers are still better.

Anyways, just my opinion....

Piecake · Post #12 » by **Piecake** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:39 pm

I know you have a serious man-crush on Brewer, but man, can you be more selective with your numbers?

Brewer has HORRIFIC numbers this season, the kind of numbers that get you get kicked to the curb, not get you a starting spot for an NBA team

Mins - 24.8
FG% - 36.2 (holy balls thats bad)
3PT% - 25.0 (He's supposed to be a shooting guard, right?)
FT% - 76.0 (something that he is moderately competent at. Hurray)
Rebs - 3.0
Asts - 1.6
Stls - 1.73
Pts - 9.1

You somehow magically think those numbers are going to get better if he starts and plays against the first string and not the bench?

Ice32 · Post #13 » by **Ice32** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:47 pm

Pie hole, learn to read! I wrote that when Brewer plays extended time (29+ minutes) the Wolves are better, in all areas. +/- , defensively, Net possessions. He doesnt have to score points to impact the team, its his defense and the other things he does that Wes doesnt do, that change the game. Brewer wouldnt have to attempt 10 shots a game in the starting 5, his role would be different.

On the other hand, Rambis would allow Wes to shoot 10 times off the bench because he hits a good percentage of them.

Im not saying Brewer is the solution, Im saying, right now he has a better impact on the team than Wes does.

Post #14 » by **C.lupus** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:50 pm

Watch the namecalling or I'll sick Klomp on you.

LordBaldric · Post #15 » by **LordBaldric** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:57 pm

C.lupus wrote:I'd rather start Webster in place of Wes.

This

eyeteeth · Post #16 » by **eyeteeth** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 9:57 pm

Homie, take a breath. Aggression and name calling do not strengthen your argument, they weaken it.

Love or hate Brewer, this makes sense if there are specific areas Rambis wants to see improvement from Johnson in so he can earn his way back into the lineup, and if Brewer is better in those areas. I do not know if both of these things are true.

For all the haters out there, it is also worth considering that starting Brewer might increase his trade value.

Piecake · Post #17 » by **Piecake** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 10:00 pm

So then why did you compare Webster's last years numbers to Brewer's? Just to make Brewer look better?

Well, I dont think his defensive is anything but average. He gambles far too much and can't fight through a screen.

I also don't think +/- is a very good stat to determine a players worth, and the rest is just too small of a sample size to really matter. I mean, come on, its only 30 games in and we are an absurdly inconsistent team.

But youre right, he has a marginally better PER than Wes. Woo

Ice32 · Post #18 » by **Ice32** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 10:01 pm

C.lupus wrote:Watch the namecalling or I'll sick Klomp on you.

My bad, Im sorry Piecake....my emotions took over, and my Brewer man-crush hasnt helped.

Ice32 · Post #19 » by **Ice32** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 10:08 pm

Piecake wrote:So then why did you compare Webster's last years numbers to Brewer's? Just to make Brewer look better?

Well, I dont think his defensive is anything but average. He gambles far too much and can't fight through a screen.

I also don't think +/- is a very good stat to determine a players worth, and the rest is just too small of a sample size to really matter. I mean, come on, its only 30 games in and we are an absurdly inconsistent team.

But youre right, he has a marginally better PER than Wes. Woo

This was in the post earlier from lewdog:

lewdog wrote:(This summer), didn't Kahn tell us that Webster put up insane numbers at a starter last year?
Couldn't hurt.

So I was just pointing out that both Brewers starter numbers this year and last year are still better than what Websters produced last season as a starter from last season....

Look, at the end of the day, the losses hurt me as a fan to. I want to see the Wolves win, I just wish Rambis would take a risk every now and then and play with the lineups like he did in pre-season (obviously to get guys to earn minutes)

But Ellington and Hayward are non-factors right now. Wes, Brewer and Webster all bring different things to the table. I say shuffle things, or make a trade. Like Al Jefferson said, these losses are going to kill Love. You think he wants to be here after 3 losing seasons? This dude can play for any team he wants, anyone would want a 20-15 guy.

Piecake · Post #20 » by **Piecake** » Thu Dec 23, 2010 10:12 pm

Ice32 wrote:
C.lupus wrote:Watch the namecalling or I'll sick Klomp on you.

My bad, Im sorry Piecake....my emotions took over, and my Brewer man-crush hasnt helped.

No worries

I don't want Brewer starting or seeing any extended minutes because while he occasionally makes the fantastic play, he also makes incredibly boneheaded plays as well. Sure, he hustles his butt off, but I don't think his defensive is anything to write home about, and the reason why he gets those steals is because he gambles far too much, which usually hurts us more than it helps.

I like Wes because he usually makes the smart decision, the smart play. Thats what we need. Not more mistakes trying to make the spectacular play. Thats Brewer in a nutshell, out of control, trying to make the spectacular play. As for Wes, sure, he can disappear at times, but I think he has been more assertive as late and hopefully that will continue.

As for PER, Ridnour has the 3rd highest on our team - 14.00. Does anyone want to say that he is our 3rd best player? I sure don't. Like Brewer, he also makes boneheaded decisions that hurt this team