Lottery Position / Standings Watch

[younggunsmn]

Current:
1. SAC 6-24 .200 +1.0
2. CLE 8-25 .242 +0.5
3. WAS 8-24 .250 0.0
4T. MN 9-25 .265 -
4T. NJ 9-25 .265 0.0
6. LAC 10-23 .303 -1.5
7. DET 11-22 .333 -2.5
8. TOR 11-21 .344 -3.0
9. CHA 11-20 .355 -3.5
10T.PHI 13-20 .394 -4.5
10T. GS 13-20 .394 -4.5
12.MEM 14-19 .424 -5.5
13.PHX 14-17 .452 -6.5
14.HOU 16-16 .500 -8.0
15.MIL 13-18 .419 -5.5
16.IND 14-17 .452 -6.5
17.POR 17-16 .515 -8.5
18. NY 18-14 .562
19.NOH 20-14 .588
20.DEN 19-13 .594
21.ATL 21-14 .600
22.ORL 21-12 .636
23.OKC 23-12 .657
24.UTA 23-11 .676
25.CHI 22-10 .688
26.LAL 23-10 .697
27.MIA 26-9 .743
28.DAL 24-8 .750
29.BOS 24-7 .774
30.SA 29-4 .878

Projected (82 games)
1. Sac 16-66
2. Cle 20-62
3. Was 21-61
4T. MN 22-60
4T. NJ 22-60
6. LAC 25-57
7. DET 27-55
8. TOR 28-54
9. CHA 29-53
10T.PHI 32-50
10T. GS 32-50
12.MEM 35-47
13.PHX 37-45
14.HOU 41-41
15.MIL 34-48
16.IND 37-45
17.POR 42-40
18. NY 46-36
19.NOH 48-34
20.DEN 49-33
21.ATL 49-33
22.ORL 52-30
23.OKC 54-28
24.UTA 55-27
25.CHI 56-26
26.LAL 57-25
27.MIA 61-21
28.DAL 62-20
29.BOS 63-19
30.SA 72-10


Right now we are 4.5 games out of losing our pick to the Clippers (Top 10 protected), 8.5 games out of the playoffs, and 1 game ahead of Sacramento for the worst record. At our current pace we are projected to go 22-60. I think we will finish better than that, but probably not have more than 30 wins in a loaded west, even with our schedule easing up.

Right now to lose our pick to the clippers we would project to have to go 24-24 the rest of the way for a record of 33-49. To make the playoffs we would have to go 33-15 the rest of the way to tie portland for the 8th seed with a 42-40 record. To have the worst record we would have to go 7-41 to tie Sacramento at 16-66.

Our Memphis pick is top 14 protected for the 2011 draft. Right now we would not receive it as they are 3 games behind Portland and slated to pick 12th.

Our Utah pick is top 16 protected. Right now Utah is slated to pick 24th, so we would receive the 24th pick. I don't know if they can keep up a 55 win pace though. Underacheivers like OKC and ORL might overtake them and the pick could be as high as 22nd. Chicago might also slip though, due to Noah's injury. So I would safely put the pick in the 22-25 range for now.

[big3_8_19_21]

So assuming we pick it up a little, our pick will probably be 6-8? hmm...

[shrink]

Because of the impending lock-out, the next draft may be very weak in talent. Underclassmen will tend to stay in school and try to raise their value, and the same would probably be said of the Euro's to some extent. The next draft may be filled with seniors, but seniors are rarely good prospects anyway -- if they have legitimate NBA potential, they come out earlier than this. For example, I think the first senior selected in last year's draft was picked 23rd, and we immediately traded him. Players are going to be drafted in the 1st round that wouldn't even be drafted in the second round in a normal draft. In general, we may find that some of these players may not even be worth two years of guaranteed salary on rookie scale! This is why I'm so willing to trade our 2011 UTA pick.

However, the 2012 draft will carry the normal amount, plus all the players that stayed in school or Europe in 2011.

So here's the question:

Suppose we nabbed a decent acquisition at the trade deadline, and finished 11th, giving our 2011 pick to the Clippers. As we trend upward, we make the play-offs in 2012, and have the 19th pick in a deeper 2012 draft.

Is that a more valuable outcome than keeping, say, the sixth pick in 2011 weak draft, and giving up the 2012 pick, unprotected?

[jpatrick]

Would love to give up our pick this year because that means we're giving up a top three pick next year (my biggest fear) and we're giving up the pick in a weak draft. I just don't see us improving enough to make that happen though.

[shrink]

It looks like we only need to catch up 4.5 games to get to the 11th pick.

True, we have to pass a lot of teams and it wouldn't be easy, but our team is improving, Webster and Flynn are back, and if we were to spend the money on a guy like Iguodala by the deadline, who knows?

[younggunsmn]

I'm not excited at all about this draft class. I think the value in the lottery is absolute horsecrap, whomever we'd draft there is going to be a project.

With the Utah pick we might be able to pick up a niche role player (preferably a good defender), find a decent 3rd point or wing to replace Brewer in the rotation. Some players who would normally be 2nd round picks (and would want to stay in school) might come out this year if they can get a 1st round promise from some team.

That said, if we can find a rotation player in a trade involving the Utah pick, I'm all for it.

I'd much rather have us lose our pick this year, but 24-24 is a tall task in the west. And even that might not get it done if the Bobcats start playing better and the clips or warriors catch fire. We'd have to finish ahead of the clips, warriors, and every eastern conference non-playoff team.

[Foye]

I'm beginning to think it might be a good thing to try and give our pick up this year.

[shangrila]

This is why I'd be hesitant to give up the Memphis pick. Unless we end up good enough to give the Clippers this year's pick, or Memphis explodes and makes the playoffs, then it's just too big of a risk considering how the draft looks like it will play out.

But the draft before the last lockout turned out alright, so who knows?

[revprodeji]

I would like to see us "good enough" to give up our pick this year. I think the improvement in our team would make a big difference in Beasley/Love wanting to resign but also give Rubio some hope that our team could be good.

I do not think another mid-lotto college kid is what this team needs right now. I think using our cap space and redundant assets to balance out the roster will be the key. Movement before the trade deadline.

[horaceworthy]

It would be flippin sweet to be good enough to give up the pick this year, that way there's no unprotected pick hanging over the proceedings, plus it would mean we got to watch solid basketball over the rest of the season.

[theGreatRC]

I want us to be in that "Competing for a playoff spot" record by the end of the season. I don't want wins in the high teens, I want wins in the 30s and if we get all-star production from our two all-stars(Let's admit it; Kevin Love IS an all-star no matter if he gets voted in or not, and Beasley is a future star and is already showing it) and we have Darko holding down the fort and solid production from Ridnour(I think Flynn is gonna be traded, I just have a feeling) then we can at least compete for a playoff spot. Not saying we'll get in, but I just want us to be less than 5 games away from the 8th seed looking into next year and give up our pick to the Clippers because this draft is NOT impressive.

[eyeteeth]

I want us to be in that "Competing for a playoff spot" record by the end of the season. I don't want wins in the high teens, I want wins in the 30s and if we get all-star production from our two all-stars(Let's admit it; Kevin Love IS an all-star no matter if he gets voted in or not, and Beasley is a future star and is already showing it) and we have Darko holding down the fort and solid production from Ridnour(I think Flynn is gonna be traded, I just have a feeling) then we can at least compete for a playoff spot. Not saying we'll get in, but I just want us to be less than 5 games away from the 8th seed looking into next year and give up our pick to the Clippers because this draft is NOT impressive.

"Agreement":
Yes on wins,
yes on all-stars
yes on Flynn being traded
yes I think we can do this,
and, well, I guess I wouldn't mind Valenciunas.

But otherwise, we are in complete agreement.