Trading for 2012 picks

[shrink]

The impending lockout may cause a lot of talent in 2011 to stay in school or Europe, so the 2012 picks may be more valuable. We've got youth already, and limited roster spots, so waiting until 2012 might be preferable for us.

While some picks due in 2011 will become 2012 picks when they meet their protections at the end of the season, there are a few out there right now. How do we get them?

2012 Picks

CHI owns the CHA 1st
top-14 protected in the 2012 Draft
top-12 protected in 2013
top-10 protected in 2014
top-8 protected in 2015
unprotected in the 2016 Draft

HOU owns NYK 1st
top 5 protected 2012-15
or else NYK's 2015 and 2016 2nds

OKC owns LAC 1st
top 10 protected in the 2012-15 draft
unprotected in the 2016 Draft

NJN owns GSW 1st
top 7 protected in the 2012 Draft
top 7 protected in 2013
top 6 protected in the 2014 Draft
or else GSW's 2014 and 2016 2nds

NJN owns HOU 1st
top 14 protected in the 2012-16 draft
or else HOU 2017 2nd + cash

CLE can swap picks with MIA

(with edits - thanks younggunsmn)

[younggunsmn]

LAC owns OKC 1st
top 10 protected in the 2012-15 draft
unprotected in the 2016 Draft

CLE can swap picks with MIA

You've got the LAC/OKC one backwards.
OKC owns the rights to LAC's 2012 1st, top 10 protected through 2015, unprotected in 2016.

CLE has the right to swap 2012 1sts with MIA, owns Miami's 2013 and 2015 1sts.

Houston owes it's own 2012 1st to New Jersey (Terrence Williams trade)
Top 14 protected through 2016, in 2017 becomes a 2017 2nd and cash.

Other owed 2011 picks:
NJ also owns the Lakers 2011 1st.
TOR owns MIA's 2011 1st.
PORT owns NOH's 2011 1st (top7,8,8,8, 2 2nds)
PHX owns ORL's 2011 1st (unprotected)



The Bobcats, Clippers, and Warriors 2012 2nds could be pretty good picks.
The Warriors one owned by New Jersey is the one I think most likely to be conveyed, maybe the most valuable. The Nets really do have a ton of assets to throw at a Carmelo Anthony deal, with Favors, 3 owed 1sts, and their own 1st. He must really not want to come there.

[shrink]

The Warriors one owned by New Jersey is the one I think most likely to be conveyed, maybe the most valuable. The Nets really do have a ton of assets to throw at a Carmelo Anthony deal, with Favors, 3 owed 1sts, and their own 1st. He must really not want to come there.

I agree, but the one thing they don't have to send DEN is cap space. It's very rare that any owner wants to have a luxury tax payroll for a non-contender. I think it offends these businessmen's sense of economics to have to pay double the market price on anything.

I think one of DEN's biggest demands (if they had their way) would be to get their payroll back under the lux, saving about $25 million dollars pro-rated, at this point. We hear "Oh we need another first" a lot, but the one trade that was shot down was because of economics - DEN refused to raise their payroll, and there have been rumors (Hahn, etc) that getting under the lux is one of their demands. 1sts, even weak ones, placate casual fans, but DEN could easily buy several 1sts with a $25 mil savings.

Simply for cap-matching Melo's big deal, NJN is obligated to include Murphy or Devin Williams. I don't believe anyone would touch Outlaw's big long contract. However, if the option is cap space instead of paying those players double, that's an easy decision .. Devin Harris is not worth $15 mil, and Troy Murphy is not worth $19 mil (again, pro-rated, plus lux share).

Murphy + GSW 1st for $12 mil cap space

I'd turn Murphy into cap space for that pick easily. The pro-rated costs for Murphy at this point for us is only $4 mil in payroll. Unlike DEN, we don't pay his full $12 mil in payroll for lux nor miss out on our lux share.

Devin Harris + GSW 1st for $5 mil cap space + Ridnour + UTA 1st

The previous deal DEN turned down had CHA sending out Devin Harris, but DEN needs a PG coming back if they do that. I'd be fine sending them the vet Ridnour plus the UTA 1st (to send to DEN), but that only clears $5 mil in cap space for NJN.

[mark blunt]

If the draft is canceled next year, does that mean the pick owed to the Clippers is pushed to 2013?

[revprodeji]

Draft will not be canceled. A lock-out happens after the draft. But if a lock-out is likely then most college talent stays in school. So the value of the pick is less.

[horaceworthy]

Blunt might be talking about the 2012 draft, if the lockout is still going on then.

If that's the case, then I imagine the draft would at least be delayed, since there can't be a draft without a CBA. The pick would still likely be conveyed during the 2012 draft, which would take place after an agreement is reached. At least that's what I think would happen.

[revprodeji]

That long of a draft could be a death wish for the league.

[horaceworthy]

The impending lockout may cause a lot of talent in 2011 to stay in school or Europe, so the 2012 picks may be more valuable. We've got youth already, and limited roster spots, so waiting until 2012 might be preferable for us.

While some picks due in 2011 will become 2012 picks when they meet their protections at the end of the season, there are a few out there right now. How do we get them?

Why would talent stay in Europe? The rules, as they are set up, are pretty beneficial to them, if college talent really does stay in college as you suggest the foreigners will be drafted earlier, and a lockout wouldn't impact their ability to stay with their teams an extra year in the slightest. This year it would seem to make more sense for foreign talent to take the leap rather than wait a year.

I'm not even sure I buy the "players will stay in school because of the lockout" angle. If money's their angle, they can make it sooner by leaving, they (theoretically) won't lose money by leaving school. Some people just don't like school and want to focus on basketball, those guys will leave regardless of lockout. If there's rumors this draft will be weaker, more players will likely try to capitalize on supposedly beneficial draft position.

Look at the pre and post lockout drafts the last time this happened.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_1998.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_1999.html

The pre lockout class looks to be stronger than the post lockout one, both in terms of star power and depth.

That being said, I'm all for acquiring 2012 picks, although that has more to do with the Wolves losing their pick that year and the pending roster crunch than me Chicken Little-ing about this particular draft class.

[Piecake]

The impending lockout may cause a lot of talent in 2011 to stay in school or Europe, so the 2012 picks may be more valuable. We've got youth already, and limited roster spots, so waiting until 2012 might be preferable for us.

While some picks due in 2011 will become 2012 picks when they meet their protections at the end of the season, there are a few out there right now. How do we get them?

Why would talent stay in Europe? The rules, as they are set up, are pretty beneficial to them, if college talent really does stay in college as you suggest the foreigners will be drafted earlier, and a lockout wouldn't impact their ability to stay with their teams an extra year in the slightest. This year it would seem to make more sense for foreign talent to take the leap rather than wait a year.

Agreed, and that means there is still a chance that the wolves draft my boy Jonas Val-something or other.

[shrink]

Maybe you're right on the Euros. Personally I think the euro-leagues have been picked pretty clean of NBA prospects, and as we know with Rubio, signing Euro's limits your cap space for free agency. I think both college and euro's lose value, as they get more expensive contracts, guaranteed for two years. But a new CBA may change how Euros affect finances.

As for the other drafts, I think the big difference is that back then seniors represented a good chunk of the talent in the draft. So in a lock-out, those seniors still go to the nba to be drafted. Now, seniors represent only a small fraction of draftees, because legit NBA talent has left earlier for NBA paydays. I should probably find a link that lists which are seniors, but I know that there hasn't been a senior in any of the top 10 nba picks for a number of years.

Anyway, I feel I'm out on a limb here, trying to guess what the 2011 draft will be like, so I'd welcome everyone's opinions.

[mark blunt]

Draft will not be canceled. A lock-out happens after the draft. But if a lock-out is likely then most college talent stays in school. So the value of the pick is less.

Thanks, totally blanked on that whole end of the league year thing...