ImageImageImage

Pick Watch

Moderators: Domejandro, Worm Guts, Calinks

shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,292
And1: 19,304
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Pick Watch 

Post#1 » by shrink » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:21 pm

Since there are still about four weeks left in the NBA schedule, I'll hold off on discussions of tie-breakers, home-away record and such, and just give you an early head's up about where our picks stand.  Like March Madness, if you keep an eye on which wins and losses help our picks, you can find yourself cheering for the Suns to beat the Warriors almost as much as you may cheer for the Richmond Spiders.  On any given night, we can check the schedule and become fans of a dozen teams.
6. 22-45 NJN
5. 19-49 TOR (@okc, @den, @pho, @gsw)

4. 17-53 MIN (sac, @dal, @okc)
3. 16-51 WAS (njn, @por, @lac, @den)
2. 16-51 SAC (@min, @chi, @mil, @ind)

1. 13-54 CLE (@lac, orl, njn, det

The Wolves have gone 4-6 in their last ten, and have moved from second-from-the-bottom to fourth in winning percentage.  The team has played three more games than SAC or WAS, which means that while the other teams have more chances to get a win, they will be playing with less rest.  I can never advocate tanking, but plan to write an article exploring the difference in valuation in the weighted lottery for the final position.

Things get much more interesting when we look at our other picks:

Memphis Pick
2011: Top 14 protected
2012: Top 12 protected
2013: Top 10 protected
2014: Top 9 protected
2015: Top 9 protected
2016: Cash

Utah Pick
2011: Top 16 protected
2012: Top 14 protected
2013: Top 12 protected

If not conveyed by 2014 and if UTA 2014 1st rd pick is not within top 9 picks, MIN will have the option to swap 2014 1st rd pick with UTA. If MIN does not receive a first round pick by the 2013 draft and also does not swap 2014 first round picks with UTA, then MIN will receive UTA’s own 2014 second round pick


Several NBA executives believe that with a potential lock-out, many NBA prospects are going to stay in college.  With the likelihood of no summer league and a delayed start in the NBA, young players may stay in their current programs to develop their skills at this crucial age and live the life of the college hoops star. I think this will be especially true for players that wouldn't be lottery selections, and the choices in 2011 for the MEM or UTA pick would be from graduating seniors (true NBA prospects usually don't stay in school four years) or from a picked-over EuroLeague. Whether we pick or trade, I hope that both picks fall into the 2012 draft, which should be deeper, and also include many of the NBA prospects that stayed in school in 2011.


5.  41-28  Denver  (@mia, tor, sas, was)
6.  40-30  New Orleans (bos, @uta, @pho)
7.  39-29  Portland  (phi, @lal, was, sas)
8.  37-32  Memphis  (ind, uta, @bos, @chi)
===============
9.  36-33 (1.0 games out) Utah  (@hou, @mem, @okc, nor)
10  36-34 (1.5 games out) Houston  (uta, gsw)
11  34-33  (2.0 games out) Phoenix  (@lac, @lal, tor, nor)


A look at standings shows that while the Jazz and Grizzlies have been playing mediocre ball, the Rockets have surged, winning their last 7-of-10, and the Suns have dropped 4 straight.  The easiest way to delay both picks would be for one of these teams to push both UTA and MEM out of the play-offs, but a new option has arisen.
If UTA was to make the play-offs, their pick is still top 16 protected.  In the past, the bottom two play-off teams in the East looked to finish so badly that they would claim the 15th and 16th draft positions, but that isn't the case any longer.

6.  36-33  Philadelphia
7.  35-33  New York
8.  30-39  Indiana
===============

As you can see, the Jazz could displace the Grizzlies in the play-offs, and still be forced to keep their pick if their record isn't better than the #7 team in the East - who they currently lead by only half a game.
 
For a team like ours, striving towards the future and carrying three potential first rounders, its only natural that we keep an eye on the standings.  A lot of NBA games may affect our future, and it should make the last month of the season a little more fun to watch.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,292
And1: 19,304
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#2 » by shrink » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:27 pm

Saturday 3/19
CLE vs LAC
DEN vs MIA
IND vs MEM
BOS vs NOH
CHA vs SAS
PHI vs POR
B Calrissian
Head Coach
Posts: 6,928
And1: 17
Joined: Sep 22, 2007

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#3 » by B Calrissian » Sat Mar 19, 2011 10:03 pm

Nicely done as always shrink.
User avatar
Grits n Gravy
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 1,804
Joined: Feb 22, 2010
Location: New Zealand
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#4 » by Grits n Gravy » Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:18 pm

nice shrink, yeah i've been keeping a real close eye on and have been pulling for houston and phoenix hard...and rooting for everyone(even heat and lakers) playing the grizzlies or jazz.
User avatar
Foye
Club Captain- German Soccer
Posts: 25,073
And1: 3,619
Joined: Jul 29, 2008
Location: Frankfurt
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#5 » by Foye » Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:55 pm

We'll finish right were we are 4th worst. Toronto and some other team (probably Utah) get top 3 picks which means we're stuck with the 6th pick.
User avatar
_AIJ_
RealGM
Posts: 14,090
And1: 4,615
Joined: Oct 15, 2008
     

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#6 » by _AIJ_ » Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:58 am

I want two 1st round picks in 2012
LETS GO WOLVES!!! 8-)
User avatar
Grits n Gravy
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 1,804
Joined: Feb 22, 2010
Location: New Zealand
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#7 » by Grits n Gravy » Sun Mar 20, 2011 2:35 am

ALICEinJAM wrote:I want two 1st round picks in 2012

no doubt, would certainly ease the pain of losing our own
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,292
And1: 19,304
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#8 » by shrink » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:02 pm

With WAS and SAC winning today, MIN moves back from having the fourth worst record into the second.

While this doesn't guarantee us a top two pick, it does greatly increase our chances. A look at the expected value of the second worst record, or what the pick is worth based on the lottery odds, shows that it means a pick generally one full position ahead of the fourth spot.

I would never advocate tanking, and there is a cost to losing a lot of games, both in fan support and a player's psyche. However, if we are to lose games, losing to the Kings is one of the best teams to lose to, longterm. Save the wins for teams like LAL and BOS, to feed our confidence and not hurt our picks.

EXP VAL Pick
2.642 ...1
2.979 ...2
3.407 ...3
3.965 ...4
4.688 ...5
5.546 ...6
User avatar
eyeteeth
Starter
Posts: 2,109
And1: 147
Joined: Jul 17, 2010
Location: somewhere on the Front Range

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#9 » by eyeteeth » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:10 pm

:D
Image
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,742
And1: 16,376
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#10 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:19 pm

Screw you Kurt Rambis

- Raptors fan
Liberate The Zoomers
cpfsf
General Manager
Posts: 8,834
And1: 1,126
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Location: sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#11 » by cpfsf » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:28 pm

Houston and Utah are going to play today

:upset:
Image

sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
younggunsmn
Head Coach
Posts: 6,742
And1: 2,567
Joined: May 28, 2007
Location: Hiding from the thought police.

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#12 » by younggunsmn » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:04 am

Deferring both of our owed picks to next year is a bigger deal than where we finish in the lottery for me.

The potential top 5 picks this year are a big yuck for me, even if they all elect to come out and not stay in school. a late lottery pick from mem or uta next year could be a nice pick, vs 18 or 19 this year (yuck). Plus it helps ease the sting of sending a top 10 pick to the clippers next year.

I want PHX or HOU to go on a tear and grab that 8th seed from Memphis. GO SUNS AND ROCKETS!

HOU/UTAH is HUGE tonight.
cpfsf
General Manager
Posts: 8,834
And1: 1,126
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Location: sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#13 » by cpfsf » Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:17 am

MIN @ DAL
MIN @ OKC
BOS @ MIN
CHI @ MIN
MIA @ MIN
MIN @ MEM
MIN @ NJ
PHX @ MIN
MIN @ DEN
MIN @ PHX
HOU @ MIN

:giveup:
Image

sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
User avatar
Foye
Club Captain- German Soccer
Posts: 25,073
And1: 3,619
Joined: Jul 29, 2008
Location: Frankfurt
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#14 » by Foye » Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:21 am

cpfsf wrote:MIN @ DAL
MIN @ OKC
BOS @ MIN
CHI @ MIN
MIA @ MIN
MIN @ MEM
MIN @ NJ
PHX @ MIN
MIN @ DEN
MIN @ PHX
HOU @ MIN

:giveup:


A 0-11 finish secures us the 2nd worst spot and we'd even have slight chances of catching Cleveland. :lol:
cpfsf
General Manager
Posts: 8,834
And1: 1,126
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Location: sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#15 » by cpfsf » Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:35 am

Foye wrote:A 0-11 finish secures us the 2nd worst spot and we'd even have slight chances of catching Cleveland. :lol:


Cleveland's remaining games: ORL NJ DET ATL MIA CHA WAS NY CHA TOR CHI MIL DET WAS

It doesn't seem that absurd. 9 of the 14 teams won't even make the playoffs. I also want to note that Charlotte is really struggling without Gerald Wallace. Fortunately we get to see the Heat play in Cleveland again. DE-LON-TE DE-LON-TE DE-LON-TE
Image

sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,292
And1: 19,304
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#16 » by shrink » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:24 am

cpfsf wrote:MIN @ DAL
MIN @ OKC
BOS @ MIN
CHI @ MIN
MIA @ MIN
MIN @ MEM
MIN @ NJ
PHX @ MIN
MIN @ DEN
MIN @ PHX
HOU @ MIN

:giveup:


So if we have to get a few wins, one against MEM, then maybe a couple against BOS, CHI, or MIA would be OK.

Our final four games, we can help our picks with losses.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,292
And1: 19,304
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#17 » by shrink » Mon Mar 21, 2011 4:09 am

younggunsmn wrote:I want PHX or HOU to go on a tear and grab that 8th seed from Memphis. GO SUNS AND ROCKETS!

HOU/UTAH is HUGE tonight.


HOU edged UTA, and pushed them down to 11th in the West. The Jazz have a back-to-back to face the rested Grizzlies in Memphis, but I'd love to see them win.

5. 41-29 Denver (tor, sas, was)
6. 40-31 New Orleans (@uta, @pho, @lal)
7. 40-29 Portland (was, sas, @okc)
8. 38-32 Memphis (uta, @bos, @chi, sas)
===============
9. 37-34 (1.5 games out) Houston (gsw, @mia)
10 35-33 (2.0 games out) Phoenix (@lal, tor, nor, dal)
11 36-34 (2.0 games out) Utah (@mem, @okc, nor, dal)


6. 36-34 Philadelphia
7. 35-34 New York
8. 30-40 Indiana
===============


And MIN looks good now that they've moved to the second spot.

6. 22-46 NJN
5. 20-49 TOR (@den, @pho, @gsw, @lac)

4. 17-51 WAS (@por, @lac, @den, @gsw)
3. 17-51 SAC (@chi, @mil, @ind, @phi)
2. 17-54 MIN (@dal, @okc, bos)

1. 13-55 CLE (orl, njn, det, atl)
cpfsf
General Manager
Posts: 8,834
And1: 1,126
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Location: sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#18 » by cpfsf » Tue Mar 22, 2011 3:31 pm

Gay is out for the season :o
Image

sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 59,292
And1: 19,304
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#19 » by shrink » Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:31 pm

I don't know if I ever showed you guys my quick calculations on how pick position going into the lottery affects the expected value of the pick.

EXP VAL
#1 2.642
#2 2.979
#3 3.407
#4 3.965
#5 4.688
#6 5.546

Now, in general, I am opposed to tanking because it hurts the confidence of the players, the fans, and revenues. However, in an NBA system where picking one higher can have a dramatic impact (#1 Shaq, #2 Mourning, #3 Laettner), it's clear that if the competition is tight, the downside of losing that one extra game could have a profound positive effect on a team's longterm future. Obviously nobody can be happy to be losing so many games, but there is certainly a benefit from moving from the 4th to the 2nd position from the bottom in the standings.
cpfsf
General Manager
Posts: 8,834
And1: 1,126
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Location: sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell
 

Re: Pick Watch 

Post#20 » by cpfsf » Tue Mar 22, 2011 4:44 pm

I'm against tanking, but I would fully support it if a team like Washington or Sacramento unnecessarily rested their starters.
Image

sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell sam mitchell

Return to Minnesota Timberwolves