Simmons' Law of Too Many guys

[revprodeji]

Excellent forum post from very valued TWolves Blog member "Wolfenstein." We'll let him take it away from here...

(Check out this post and much, much more, in our TWolves Blog Forums)



First of all, credit where credit's due: from Simmons via ESPN.com (about halfway down, read the Rockets write-up):
...The Law of Too Many Guys. You only need eight and a half guys to win in the NBA: five starters, three bench guys, then an 8½th man who doesn't mind playing 0-10 minutes a night and being on call if a rotation guy gets into foul trouble, gets hurt or whatever. Of those eight and half guys, ideally, you need two scorers, one ball handler, one perimeter defender and one rebounder. You need to be able to play defense. You need everyone to know their roles. You need to know who's playing crunch time and who gets the ball in those last few minutes. And you need a coach competent enough not to screw things up. That's it.

...

It's a common-sense thing. Ask any NBA starter how many minutes would make them happy and they'd say 36 to 38 (one rest per half). There are 240 minutes available in a basketball game. That means you need to allot 180-190 minutes for your five starters to be happy. Now, ask any bench player how many minutes they need to play well and you know what they'd say? Two stretches per half for 8-10 minutes. They need time to run around, break a sweat, get a feel for the game and get comfortable. That means you need to allot 50-60 minutes for your three bench guys and your 8½th man.

...

So let's split the difference: 185 minutes for five happy starters, 55 minutes for the three and a half bench guys. That adds up to … wait for it … 240 minutes! What a coincidence.


Deep, deep insight from Simmons. If you line up 2 scorers, a ballhandler, an excellent rebounder, and an excellent defender in a pickup game, you know you can run the court for a few games, until you either tire out or until someone brings a better team with similar balance and better talent. I would argue that it is possible for your best defender to be a post defender, as long as you don't have substantial gaps with your perimeter defense. If you are letting guys penetrate all game long, you will have a problem with just a great interior defender. Otherwise, with decent perimeter defense a guy like Mutombo or Garnett as your plus defender is good.

Let's assume this bit of basketball knowledge is accurate, as I think it is. Let's also go one step further and say that you can have a MAXIMUM of one defensive liability in your starting 5, and one in your 3.5 backups. Usually this is one of the scorers, but if you think back to some of the great teams of the last 10 years you realize at times it is a ballhandler, at times a big man; in no case is more than one starter a defensive liability.

So, to recap:

* One Ball Handler
* One Rebounder
* One Elite Defender
* Two Scorers
* Three Bench Contributors
* One Serviceable Sub
* MAX one Defensive Liability as a Starter, one as a Sub



Let's now take this theory back to our dear Wolfies. Keep in mind that everyone at the NBA level is versatile to a certain degree- i.e. Love is a solid scorer as well as rebounder, but since we must categorize him as one or the other, the dominant role takes precedence; obviously Love gets classed as a Rebounder. I'm also going to list each player's overall score as I see it at this point in their career. ++++ would be your perennial All-Stars, +++ is top 10 at his position, ++ is a legit starter, + is a contributing role-player, = is a replacement level player and - is sub-par. I will also note those players that I believe are significant Defensive Liabilities. This is obviously a subjective exercise so there will be those that disagree with details, but it's useful nonetheless for sorting purposes.

Please click "Read More" for the in-depth analysis and insight from "Wolfenstein"...



Our team as presently constructed looks like:
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* Current Starters Luke Ridnour - Ballhandler, Defensive Liability (+)
* Wes Johnson* - Scorer (+)
* Mike Beasley* - Scorer, Defensive Liability (++)
* Kevin Love - Rebounder, Defensive Liability (+++)
* Darko Milicic* - Rebounder (+)


-------------------------------------
Current Bench Guys

* Anthony Randolph - Scorer (++)
* Anthony Tolliver - Defender (+)
* Nikola Pekovic - Rebounder (+)
* Wayne Ellington - Scorer (+)
* Jonny Flynn* - Ballhandler, Defensive Liability (=)
* Martell Webster - Scorer (+)
* Lazar Hayward - Perimeter Defender (=)


-------------------------------------
Now I'll admit this is not an easy team to grade, nor is it an objective scale. I didn't give anyone on the team a -, mostly because some nights Jonny looks like a - and some nights he's better than Ridnour. Likewise you get major inconsistencies out of Darko, Beasley, and Wes Johnson. Out of all of those guys Wes is the only one that gets a pass this year in my book since he's a rook. We can entertain discussions about whether a player deserves the Defensive Liability tag or not, or whether a player is an elite defender or not; bottom line is that this is getting close.

One interesting side note is to take a look at the T-Wolves box score from tonight:
[attachment:1]C:\fakepath\wolfies box score 4-9-11.jpg[/attachment]

Notice that we had seven players between 22-30 minutes, one with 33 (Martell Webster, who had a solid but not spectacular night) and two with under 20 minutes (Lazar, who scored a very efficient 15 points in 19 minutes, and Pekovic, limited by foul trouble).

Many of us have identified this throughout the year, so I won't belabor the point, but one wonders if Rambis, a career bench player, fails to grasp that the best players expect to be in the game the vast majority of the minutes. Possibly he just recognizes what my ratings above will show, which is that, besides Love, he has about 2 other guys who seem to deserve Starters' minutes and they both play the same position as Love.

-------------------------------------

Back to tackling the problem of how to move forward in constructing this team, we have some issues to tackle:

1. Love is our best player and is an elite rebounder. He can probably coexist with two other elite scorers without significantly hurting our team, since he hits spot up shots and creates points by rebounding. He will probably not be a 20 ppg scorer if 2 other guys need shots in the offense, but could easily be a 15/12+ guy within such a system. In other words, he could be the best case scenario of the love-child (no pun intended) of Toni Kukoc and Dennis Rodman on a contending team.
2. We have way too many defensive liabilities on our team as constructed, and only one guy who plays like a legitimate defensive stopper (Hayward), who projects as a solid role-player at best (i.e. not a starter).
3. Our only viable scorers besides Love (who I am including as a rebounder for reasons above- plus he's not the guy who creates his own looks within the offense) are Beasley and Randolph, who both play the same natural position as Love. Beasley is also a significant defensive liability at this point in his career due to his bad positioning and vision habits and tendency to lose track of his man.
4. We have a total of 3 players on our roster who I believe deserve to be starting at this point in their careers. Three. And they all play Power Forward. Obviously Beasley and Randolph are somewhat versatile in their position.
5. We have between seven and nine role players on our team. Way too many. One excellent player and two very good players. No elite players.
6. No elite perimeter or interior defenders.



-------------------------------------

So what to do?

First, let's add current assets. We'll throw Rubio in there as a Ball Handler and a legit starter based on his track record in International/Olympic play. We'll call him "Ricky Rubio - Ball Handler (++)". I think he's probably an above average defender but in my mind doesn't qualify as a lockdown perimeter defender, so we'll leave it as is.

Second, we have our 2011 first round draft picks. We're likely to be in the top 3, let's assume we don't get totally screwed and fall to 5. We probably will, but let's assume it's top 3. We have Kyrie Irving and Harrison Barnes (assuming he comes out) as top prospects, with lesser prospects in Derrick Williams and Perry Jones. At this point we have Beasley and Randolph who can be scorers, but you can't roll the ball out with Love, Beasley, and Randolph on the court and not get destroyed in the halfcourt. Not at this point, anyway.

So let's assume we need to add scoring punch to our team, and ideally it would be at a position that is not occupied by any of our legit starters- certainly not a player who projects as a PF. Even with trading Love we still would have an unresolved logjam.

That leaves us with 3 first round picks, and in need of at least one additional legitimate scorer, and one elite perimeter defender.

If we could add Harrison Barnes and trade for a guy like Gerald Henderson, Avery Bradley, or Thabo Sefolosha (more difficult to acquire), we'd be in the right neighborhood. If Darko could regain his mojo or if Randolph could improve his post defense to the degree required to hold down the Center position, this would put us in the right territory.

Conversely, we could trade for a scorer (Mayo, Ellis, Martin would fit the bill) and look for a draft a guy with one of our later picks like DeAndre Liggins, who projects as a plus defender.

The other thing that becomes apparent is that, unless his perimeter defense improves dramatically, Beasley will either need to take something of a hit in minutes (and ego) and come off the bench as a 6th man (both pairing with and subbing for Love), or either he or Love will probably need to be on the move. This is due to Love's natural challenges with defensive footspeed and leaping, paired with Beasley's lack of defensive awareness and generally mediocre team defense.

I would also add that Beasley's efficiency would probably need to increase in order to keep him in our starting line-up.

-------------------------------------

There's a lot here to consider, but the concept of "Too Many Guys" seems to fit our team perfectly. Not enough leaders, and our top end talent is mainly redundant.

Thoughts?

[Foye]

The article lost me when Darko was described as a rebounder, sorry.

[Calinks]

If Darko's a rebounder he shouldn't be a +. I think his role is defender. But hey I like the article. I'll use that as a blue print for a 2K11 team.

[teven_1]

The article lost me when Darko was described as a rebounder, sorry.

+1
but no it was pretty good other wise

[post0115]

Interesting thought process.

I think Wes should be listed as a defender, not a scorer.
I don't think Ridnour needs to be listed as a defensive liability if he is coming off the bench.

Current List:

* One Ball Handler
* One Rebounder
* One Elite Defender
* Two Scorers
* Three Bench Contributors
* One Serviceable Sub
* MAX one Defensive Liability as a Starter, one as a Sub

I would change/add a couple things: Need for 1 go-to scorer, add need for 2 outside shooters in starting lineup and 3 in top 8 for spacing.

This highlights a couple things that have been talked about at certain times.

- Beasley and Love cannot be the foundation of this team as both are defensive liabilities
- If Beasley goes or is made a 6th man, we need to add a go-to scorer which is not easy to do. Hopefully Barnes could do it. If we got Irving he could probably do it. Rubio will not do this for us.
-If we trade Beasley, we will likely not get high value.
-If we could trade Love for a star SG who is not a defensive liability such as Tyreke Evans, we should as it makes the team concept and the parameters as listed here much easier to fulfill.

[revprodeji]

I think the point is good, I disagree with how they label the wolves as well.

[Rolf]

I think the point is good, I disagree with how they label the wolves as well.

Same here.

The original Simmons article had a lot of really interesting thoughts that are pertinent to the Wolves, despite the amazing fact that the actual Wolves section didn't make a single reference to the Timberwolves or any player on the team.

I also liked this piece, from the Bucks section:

What's really confusing: Over the past few years, didn't the Thunder's Sam Presti show everyone how to run a small-market team? Build through the lottery; keep your cap space (so you can swing cap-related deals during the season that net you extra draft picks); avoid paying market price for veteran starters who aren't All-Stars; don't overpay your own guys if they aren't building blocks. And the thing is, John Hammond KNEW the blueprint. He was using it these past two years! So what made him go Maggette/Gooden/Salmons on us? Do NBA GMs just slowly lose their minds? Is it like when you go on Amazon to buy one book and end up with two Blu-rays as well, and even as you're paying for it, you're saying, "What's happening right now; why am I buying these?"

For the last few months I've been thinking that I'd love to see Kahn blow a bunch of Taylor's money on Iggy, Joe Johnson, or Bogut, but this section gave me pause. Although it's painful, maybe staying to course on the rebuild is the smartest move to make.

[Biff Cooper]

It seems pretty clear that the one thing we can't do this off-season is acquire anyone else who is going to be a defensive liability.

[Biff Cooper]

For the last few months I've been thinking that I'd love to see Kahn blow a bunch of Taylor's money on Iggy, Joe Johnson, or Bogut, but this section gave me pause. Although it's painful, maybe staying to course on the rebuild is the smartest move to make.

This is a bit of a mixed bag. Assuming a Beasley + Mem #1 for Iggy trade, you replace a poor defender in your core 8 with a good defender. Hopefully, a Bogut trade would do the same thing. A Joe Johnson trade would help fill one of our scorer needs. While each of these three players would be costly, they are all good at what they do and would fill a distinct need for this team. I think I'd be willing to take on Bogut or Iggy's salaries, but Johnson's is probably too steep.

[cpfsf]

Kevin Love is arguably the second best player on a championship team. The first step to building a championship team is adding at least one player who is better than Love. I hope that player would be someone other than Ricky Rubio, but I'd gladly take that scenario. The truth is we have so many holes that we can upgrade practically any position. Who do you think is Minnesota's second best player? Just let that sink in for a second.

[Esohny]

Kevin Love is arguably the second best player on a championship team. The first step to building a championship team is adding at least one player who is better than Love. I hope that player would be someone other than Ricky Rubio, but I'd gladly take that scenario. The truth is we have so many holes that we can upgrade practically any position. Who do you think is Minnesota's second best player? Just let that sink in for a second.

Eesh.

[TMo519]

We do definitely have too many role guys, we need a stud, badly. That, and a perimeter defender who can keep guards in front of him. Rubio may not be a lockdown guy, but I think he can at least keep the opposing PG from just driving at will, cause right now, Luke and Flynn are not doing that at all, and really, that affects the interior defense as well since now everyone is scrambling. I think it all starts there.

[shrink]

Good methodology, but I think he should use multiple categories for individual players. Anyone who's played roto fantasy sports knows that just because a guy is predominantly a ball-handler, doesn't mean his rebounds count any less. In fact, some of these mutli-cat guys are incredibly valuable not just in fantasy sports (especially HTH), but on the floor as well.

I think it a better way would be to assess the team is to award points in three cats:

KeLove: 5 Rebounding, 4 Scoring, 2 Ball Handling, 2 Defense
MkBeas: 3 Rebounding, 4 Scoring, 2 Ball Handling, 2 Defense
RRubio: 2 Rebounding, 3 Scoring, 4 Ball Handling, 3 Defense

.. for all players.

Then factor in minutes, and come out with team totals.

Basketball is a team sport, and it's the team totals that is a better model for whether the Wolves have the pieces to compete with other teams. Now, I think history supports that it takes superstars to win in the NBA, but unless we grow one, it's unlikely we see one in MIN. However, occasionally a team like DET sneaks in and wins a championship without one. We may need to try to grow into a DET team, where collectively, the total team can be a match for another club with a superstar.

[revprodeji]

For the last few months I've been thinking that I'd love to see Kahn blow a bunch of Taylor's money on Iggy, Joe Johnson, or Bogut, but this section gave me pause. Although it's painful, maybe staying to course on the rebuild is the smartest move to make.

If Kahn ever got value for the draft picks, then we could have something here.

Drafting is part luck (2nd pick=Durant) and part skill recognizing talent.

[eyeteeth]

Really thinking Beasley's defense isn't as bad as Rambis' defense makes him look, and his offense could be (+++) next year and not be totally shocking. It pissed me off, too, that the writer kept insisting Beasley is a PF when if he struggled last season it was not b/c he was playing SF.

As noted, Darko is a Defender, not a rebounder.

And Wes J as a defender? Interesting thought. I think the coaches intend him to be a scorer, but he has certainly shown flashes of potential to be a shutdown defender. I think it makes sense that some players might have a classification like (Scorer/Defender), but most players primarily fulfill one role.

All in all an interesting thought experiment.

I think ideally, this helps a team see who they don't need first, and then what types of players they can get to fill the holes created by seeing the team without the players who aren't needed.


My assessment of the team, assuming Rubio in place of Flynn, just to kind of see the shape of next season:

Starting:
Love -- Rebounder (+++) **defensive liability**
Beasley -- Scorer (++)
Rubio -- Ballhandler (++)
Wes J -- Scorer/Defender (+)
Darko -- Defender (+)

Bench to 8.5:
Ridnour -- Ballhandler (+) **defensive liability?**
Webster -- Scorer (++)
Randolph -- Rebounder/Scorer (++)
Tolliver (Defender/Rebounder) (+)
Ellington -- Ballhandler/Scorer (+) **.5 man**

Bench beyond 8.5:
Heyward -- Scorer (=)
Pekovic -- Scorer (-) **foul trouble liability**


What I see here is that this isn't a bad grouping. There are a few clear lessons, though.

- We have too much TolliverRandolphPekovic. At least one, probably two of these guys needs to not be playing. Ideally, Randolph steps up his game enough to comprehensively supersede Tolliver, who seems like a great guy to have waiting on the bench. Pekovic should have a positive trade value.
- This team looks a LOT better without Jonny Flynn on the roster.
- Most of these guys aren't horrible defenders. Hmm. Yup, the team's defensive scheme probably needs work.

One thing that this doesn't show, that I think really matters with this team is that we do not have a scoring threat on the low post with either KLove or Darko. I think this is a significant challenge for this team. The "Magic Randolph develops" can be plugged in here, too. I've said it before, he's 21. He's going to get stronger. If he gets strong enough and focuses his game, enough to be a starting center, we're in good shape.

The challenge then is what to do with Darko. Can he mentally deal with coming off the bench? Maybe if he got the same kind of big love and confidence from the coaches he would accept that role. If he worked on his inside scoring, he'd be a terror for other teams to match up with on the second unit.

This is getting long, but I want to write out what I think this team could easily be next year, with our guys developing over the offseason. Let's just say many of our players have a great offseason and they all develop ideally. Here's what I see.

Best case scenario for next year, not counting draft picks:

Starting:
Love -- Rebounder (+++) **defensive liability**
Beasley -- Scorer (+++)
Wes J -- Scorer/Defender (++)
Rubio -- Ballhandler (++)
Randolph -- Rebounder/Scorer (++)

Bench to 8.5:
Darko -- Defender/Scorer (++)
Webster -- Scorer (++)
Ridnour -- Ballhandler (+)
Ellington -- Ballhandler/Scorer (+) **.5 man**

Bench beyond 8.5
Tolliver -- Defender/Rebounder (+)
Heyward -- Scorer (=)

Unfortunately, I doubt Randolph "magically" gets to this point this offseason (I bet Beasley does, though). To me, looking at this ideal-development, cleaned up rotation roster helps a lot. It shows how much we need that scoring big man. Whether that's Perry Jones or a trade we can make, I think it's our biggest need.

[teven_1]

I think Randolph and Tolliver would be a solid big men tandem off the bench (Love, Darko starting). They'd be undersized but they could be a fast paced running 2nd unit with Ridnour, and mix things up.
(EDIT: this also keeps our 2 best post defenders Tolliver and Darko in each unit)
Also I disagree Beaz will remain a minus on d. Don't get me wrong, he might, but he has all the tools to become a fine defender. I think he has to find a balance between overzealous (early in games picking up quick fouls in the first quarter) and being too passive late in games. Hopefully we make it happen.
Wes Johnson also seems to be getting molded into a defensive stopper (or we're trying) if that happens I can live with Loves Defense.

[cpfsf]

I think Randolph and Tolliver would be a solid big men tandem off the bench (Love, Darko starting). They'd be undersized but they could be a fast paced running 2nd unit with Ridnour, and mix things up.
(EDIT: this also keeps our 2 best post defenders Tolliver and Darko in each unit)
Also I disagree Beaz will remain a minus on d. Don't get me wrong, he might, but he has all the tools to become a fine defender. I think he has to find a balance between overzealous (early in games picking up quick fouls in the first quarter) and being too passive late in games. Hopefully we make it happen.
Wes Johnson also seems to be getting molded into a defensive stopper (or we're trying) if that happens I can live with Loves Defense.

I'm really starting to think that Randolph will be flipped. It seems he's only played out of necessity, he still will be a guy we have to develop in a year we theoretically should be competing, he plays the same position as many of the other guys, and other teams are still high on him. Even Darko and Beasley were given more commitment by Kahn than he ever has with Randolph.

[Devilzsidewalk]

you guys are way too generous

* Current Starters Luke Ridnour - good shooter, F minus in everything else
* Wes Johnson decent defender, good shooter when wide open, otherwise F minus in everything
* Mike Beasley decent shooter, below average everything else
* Kevin Love - great rebounder, good shooter, thats all
* Darko Milicic good at being 7 feet tall, nothing else

----------------------------
Current Bench Guys

* Anthony Randolph - semi-decent slasher for size, mediocre rebounding, thats all
* Anthony Tolliver - he can hit open threes sometimes and he at least tries to defend, more than anybody else on the team can say
* Nikola Pekovic - pretty good post scorer and fouler
* Wayne Ellington - cant do anything
* Jonny Flynn - cant do anything
* Martell Webster - pretty good shooter, thats it
* Lazar Hayward - doesnt do much

[dakim]

agreed with devilz, our team is a**...so talentless

[Biff Cooper]

Also I disagree Beaz will remain a minus on d. Don't get me wrong, he might, but he has all the tools to become a fine defender.

Athletic tools yes. Mental tools - ???. If he ever wants to be more than a (-) on defense, he needs to really change his mental approach to defense (and rebounding / boxing out).