Trading Down the #2 - Staying in Lottery

[shrink]

With this rumors about the TOR and WAS deals, we may have a case where Kahn is looking to trade down a little lower in the lottery if he can grab a legitimate additional asset. It might be worth looking at this pattern to see if there is anything else that can work.

UTA #3 + ??? or Favors + ??? This makes more sense if CLE chooses Derrick Williams first, knowing they can come back at a PG with the 4. I think Utah would love Kyrie Irving. UTA also owns GSW's 2012 1st, top 7 protected

CLE #4 + ???? I'm not a fan of Varejao here, and I don't think CLE has anything else MIN would value to make the jump (not hickson). I suppose they could add a protected 2012 1st, but ...

TOR #5 + Derozean for #2 + ???? This combo is worth more than the #2 imo, but I think #2 has a much greater chance of becoming a true star than #5 or DD.

WAS #6 + McGee. McGee has potential Kahn may like, but with this many mistakes after three years in the league, we may see a Stomile Swift-level of value decline here.

SAC #7? DET #8? CHA #9?


One thing we may see is a future protected 1st being added to one of these deals. The problem here is two-fold. First, there is risk that the future pick will vary in value, based on how well the team does, and the lottery. Second, Kahn may feel his job is on the line, and be unwilling to pick up assets where the production is deferred.

[[RCG]]

Best possible circumstance is if Cleveland goes Williams #1. I'd do the Toronto #5 & DD for #2 (Flynn). But it does seem to be favoring us. We could trade #2 for #7 and trade Webster, Pekovic who are two of are larger contracts for cap room to go after Gasol or another RFA.

[TheProdigy]

Acquiring Favors is my favorite of those trades. I have my fingers crossed that D Will goes #1.

[Krapinsky]

My hunch is that all these deals are wishful thinking. I think we'll be stuck taking Williams.

[Esohny]

My hunch is that all these deals are wishful thinking. I think we'll be stuck taking Williams.

Ugh. I wouldn't be surprised.

[Breakdown777]

My hunch is that all these deals are wishful thinking. I think we'll be stuck taking Williams.

+1. And I don't think this is a bad place to be. If we take him #2, and he is coveted, teams will call us offering more because his value will be very high once we have his rights. If their aren't any takers, he's not a bad consolation prize in the least.

[cpfsf]

My hunch is that all these deals are wishful thinking. I think we'll be stuck taking Williams.

Ugh. I wouldn't be surprised.

You two make it sound like it's a bad thing.

[wildvikeswolves]

My hunch is that all these deals are wishful thinking. I think we'll be stuck taking Williams.

and i hope your right

[shrink]

Are there other combinations that fit the TOR or WAS "youth + lottery pick" rumors?

Of course, the next phase would be three-way trades, where the value from the trade down is used to bring in another player that's not worth the #2. The classic example would be Iguodala.

[Esohny]

My hunch is that all these deals are wishful thinking. I think we'll be stuck taking Williams.

Ugh. I wouldn't be surprised.

You two make it sound like it's a bad thing.

My communication skills remain effective then.

[Dewey]

We need a SG in a serious way ... I hope that is a priority. The McGee talk has me nervous.

Williams has certainly proven to be effective, consistent and no injury issues, and that's the part that concerns me about Kanter - his knees.

I like the idea that if the Cavs take Williams and plan to grab the best PG available at #4, we'll have the cards in our hands for about 15 minutes to make the deal of the century ... KAHHHHHN !!!

[[RCG]]

We need a SG in a serious way ... I hope that is a priority. The McGee talk has me nervous.

Williams has certainly proven to be effective, consistent and no injury issues, and that's the part that concerns me about Kanter - his knees.

I like the idea that if the Cavs take Williams and plan to grab the best PG available at #4, we'll have the cards in our hands for about 15 minutes to make the deal of the century ... KAHHHHHN !!!

What's wrong with Kanter's knees? His 20-some minutes on the treadmill test (the only player above 6'11" to do so) makes me think that his knees aren't that big of a concern.

[Esohny]

We need a SG in a serious way ... I hope that is a priority. The McGee talk has me nervous.

Williams has certainly proven to be effective, consistent and no injury issues, and that's the part that concerns me about Kanter - his knees.

I like the idea that if the Cavs take Williams and plan to grab the best PG available at #4, we'll have the cards in our hands for about 15 minutes to make the deal of the century ... KAHHHHHN !!!

What's wrong with Kanter's knees? His 20-some minutes on the treadmill test (the only player above 6'11" to do so) makes me think that his knees aren't that big of a concern.

That and the reports that the knee issues were just internet speculation and not real.

[shrink]

Maybe I'm just getting tired of the speculation, but personally, I'm not seeing any realistic trade scenarios that excite me.

[Den Masters]

does cleveland have any other picks in the first round?

if cleveland really wants our #2, then they have to give us #4, varejao, and possibly another lower pick.

i'm really hoping we can pick brooks or burks in the later part of 1st round.

[jscott]

Take Williams.

Favors landed New Jersey Deron Williams. Dwight Howard could be traded this season (wishful thinking) and he'd give us a big trade chip.

[EddyCool]

Maybe I'm just getting tired of the speculation, but personally, I'm not seeing any realistic trade scenarios that excite me.

+1

It seems like we'd get financially locked in to a hum-drum, borderline playoff team, or have another load of mid-talent, inexperienced projects with unknowable potential.

[EddyCool]

Take Williams.

Favors landed New Jersey Deron Williams. Dwight Howard could be traded this season (wishful thinking) and he'd give us a big trade chip.

Totally. Or maybe Williams shows a lot early on, and you end up moving somebody else.

I'll take a roster decision based on the team's performances over one based assumed circumstances all day.

[karch34]

My feeling is we'll keep Williams or the move down will leave us somewhat disappointed in overall return (ie, we got Kanter-who's fine with me, but a very marginal piece in addition).

My thoughts on what's been speculated:
UTA #3 + ??? or Favors + ???
--Not sure what piece of significance is included with #3 so that doesn't do much for me. I've cooled on Favors and while I like him, I just see a log jam at PF similar to if we kept the pick and took Williams. If it is Irving at #2, I'm more inclined to keep him and see if a Rubio-Irving back court could work.

CLE #4 + ????
--Varejo's injury is concerning, but if we moved Darko as part of the package, I'd do it. My ideal would be do #2, Darko, and filler for Varejo and #4 then trade #4 straight up for DeRozen.

TOR #5 + Derozean for #2 + ????
---I'd do this one, but I think it has to be more for Toronto. I think they overvalue DeRozen, but he's shown something and they'd have to get a big return to sell it to fans after the Bosh departure.

WAS #6 + McGee. I like McGee, but I don't think he's enough. #18 would be nice, but I don't see the overall deal helping. Bringing on McGee, Burks/Leonard, and whatever we do with 18 and 20 doesn't seem like the home run we need.

My feeling is if anything happens it's going to be something that was under the radar for the most part. We're going to be making moves but I really think it's going to be a surprise and underwhelming.

[tviper]

I think D. Williams has all-star potential and will be great running the floor with Rubio and drawing defenders out of the paint with his outside shooting. Take best player available and sort roster moves out later unless there is a fantastic offer.