Page 1 of 1
Find a Center
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:42 pm
by shrink
I posted this on the Trade Board, and I thought it might have some value if we look to address our needs at center:
shrink wrote:Guy986 wrote:Bigs are worth alot of monies.
I don't know if they are "worth it," but the market certainly pays them a lot. I think you've made a pretty good list (though I'd raise Boozer and lower a couple of the bigger injury risks).
But since we're a trade board, let's compare your numbers to contracts, and see how they fare? I'm going to use a strict (what you're worth - what you're paid) x years here.
Guy986 wrote:+5m Gortat - 9m (7 / 7 / 8 )
-3m Bogut - 12m (12 / 13 / 14)
-4m Kaman- 8m (12)
-9m Bynum - 11m (15 / 16)
-9m Jefferson - 10m (14 / 15)
-14m Okafor - 9m (13 / 14 / 14)
-14m Bargnani - 7m (9 / 10 / 11 / 12)
-15m Biedrins - 4m ( 9 / 9 / 9)
-33m Boozer - 7m (14 / 15 / 15 / 17)
Nene - 11m (?)
M. Gasol - 10m (?)
Chandler - 9m (?)
Jordan - 8m (?)
Oden - 7m (?)
Dalembert - 7m (?)
Interestingly, only Gortat is worth his contract, and in his case, we are going to accept a little risk that he's going to continue to grow as a player and avoid injury. Bogut's number is close to his production, and Kaman, while still negative, is better than others because he's overpaid for a shorter period of time. In many cases, the rest of these players are overpaid by about $4-5 mil per year. We'll see if the trend to overpay centers for a long time will continue with the large batch of free agents.
Lastly, I've talked before about position-specificity, but I think it's important for me to bring it up again. A team needs a good (or in many of these cases "competant if uninjured") center. We see many teams trying to force PF's to play center, but both offensively and defensively, a team generally needs a decent C. With 30 teams, this has obviously driven the price up, and I think Guy's numbers reflect that they are already overpaid. What would they be paid as free agents? However, we're a trade board. Is an over-priced center worth a well-priced SF? Is he worth cap space? I think each team (and each poster) has to consider the team's needs and directions AND the contract when we assess trades.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:51 pm
by shrink
Anyway, in a land of overpaid centers, we'd need to get lucky to find the uninjured one for a big competitive advantage. I care about our payroll, and I think Kahn/Taylor have managed it in a way to use it as a tactical asset.
First, I feel we can find the money to make a bid on any of the free agents. With six of them, perhaps the price won't get run up, but it's hard to know. Many of these contracts are multiple years with a $4-5 mil overpay. That would be terrible with a new deal starting, and mutliple years with our cap hamstrung.
Next, if we can't get a good center at a legitimate price in free agency, then we need to consider giving up something with trade targets. Gortat seems like he'd be a good financial selection, though it might be tough to get a financially-acceptable center away from a cheapskate like Sarver. I don't have a problem overpaying Bogut a bit, though I don't think we should give up a huge asset AND pay that contract. After that, it again seems like you're looking at finding a guy you overpay by $4-5 mil every year of his contract, and that's not something I'd like to do.
Finally, if we can't add a center at a reasonable price, I'd prefer to roll with Darko and Pek again, rather than make a major move that most likely would cause longterm problems for our payroll and flexibility.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:15 am
by Narf
How much will Oden cost? Best guess.
I rather like the idea of Oden/Pekovic/Randolph.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:34 am
by Klomp
Narf wrote:How much will Oden cost? Best guess.
I rather like the idea of Oden/Pekovic/Randolph.
He's a restricted free agent this summer, which means Portland can (and likely would) match any offer that isn't ridiculous (~10M. If he signs the qualifying offer and is unrestricted next summer, we could probably sign him for closer to the going rate for centers (~7-8M).
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:31 am
by Krapinsky
I'd prefer if Oden remained Portland's burden.
I think we should see if we can sign (or modest sign & trade) Gasol or Chandler. If we can't then we just roll with what we got.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2011 2:41 am
by Devilzsidewalk
Yao takes a year off, feels super, signs w/ his old coach Adelman, we play him 25 mpg and his feet last forever...profit
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 5:11 am
by cpfsf
If we add a new starting center, we should get rid of Pekovic (which is actually what motivated me to create the Minnesota-Miami trade). Pekovic would just be an expensive insurance policy.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 3:43 pm
by Peezo
I like the list, but we are one of how many teams looking for a center? What concerns me is that without any continuity here in MIN over the past few years, the perception of our GM being bad (inKahnpetent if you will), and our mishmash of talent, I don't think we are going to be able to attract anyone without blatantly overpaying. Has that ever worked? If we are in competition for a starting-caliber center with almost any other team I think we are going to be seen as the less desirable sign. I am just struggling to be optimistic about our eventual offseason acquisitions.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 3:55 pm
by Gunny
Maybe my judgement is clouded because of the great news about the lockout, but just overpay for Marc Gasol and call it a day.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 4:09 pm
by Wolves21
Gunny wrote:Maybe my judgement is clouded because of the great news about the lockout, but just overpay for Marc Gasol and call it a day.
Agreed but I doubt that the Grizzles will let him go,same goes for Jordan with the Clippers.So if I was the Timberwolves brass I would look to go after Nene sense he's a free agent and the Nuggets look to have already lost JR Smith to China for most of the year and Martin.So the team is going in a tailspin.So try and land him which still would be a long shot.So I think the best fit and most realistic get would be to bring in one of Rick Adelman old players in the undersized Chuck Hayes.
So I am looking at a line up of,
C-Chuck Hayes
PF-Kevin Love
SF-Derrick Williams
SG-Wesley Johnson
PG-Ricky Rubio
With Beasley coming off the bench as the six man.I still also feel that after signing or trading for a starting center we need to look at getting a starting SG(Still not buying that Johnson is a start)if the Wolves really due believe that Johnson can be a starter then a solid back up SG.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 4:17 pm
by Peezo
Hayes should be looked to as only a backup in my mind. He was a really good role player on Houston, but the make up of our team is much different. We don't have any real defensive presence on our squad, so I want a footer who can actually help over with Klove and others.
DeAndre Jordan all day. Can Ricky make him the next Tyson Chandler on NO (alley-oop machine)?
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 4:58 pm
by Gunny
Peezo wrote:Hayes should be looked to as only a backup in my mind. He was a really good role player on Houston, but the make up of our team is much different. We don't have any real defensive presence on our squad, so I want a footer who can actually help over with Klove and others.
DeAndre Jordan all day. Can Ricky make him the next Tyson Chandler on NO (alley-oop machine)?
BOMB. I completely forgot about DJ. He would be an awesome fit.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:24 pm
by younggunsmn
If we sign chuck hayes to play C I am going to be f'n pod. We have a glut at PF already and if we are going small we might as well play Love and Dwill together in the frontcourt (although I think WIlliams is going to be a stud SF from day one).
Some team is going to make the Blazers make a tough matching decision on Oden. Same with the Grizzlies and Gasol and Clippers and Jordan. Rather not have our bluff called on Oden, it could kill our ability to keep our core together 3 and 4 years down the road, but as long as it is only a 3 year deal I can see making a run at Oden. Of the 3 I think the Blazers are most likely not to match on Oden. No way Griz let Gasol go even if it is financial suicide after that ridiculously stupid extension they gave Randolph with a lockout coming.
The name I haven't heard much is Przybilla. We would have the hometown advantage, and he would come quite a bit cheaper.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:27 pm
by younggunsmn
Would be interesting to see if we could throw together a pretty enticing package to memphis in a gasol sign and trade (randolph or beasley + their pick back).
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:30 pm
by Yes We Kahn
@JerryZgoda
Jerry Zgoda
@BrianCardinal @tysonchandler Tell Tyson all about what a wonderful place Minnesota is!!!
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:30 pm
by Darko Miliminutes
No need! Got Darko, who i might remind you, is getting only $4 mil per year. He is perfectly adequate! There's much bigger needs than finding a C!
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:32 pm
by Wolves21
younggunsmn wrote:Would be interesting to see if we could throw together a pretty enticing package to memphis in a gasol sign and trade (randolph or beasley + their pick back).
I would due that type of deal in a heart beat.I think every pick and player besides Love,Rubio and maybe Williams are fair game in my book in terms of a trade.Those three core players would be up for trade bait as well but only for and elite player i.e Williams,Wade,James,Howard,Durant...ect aka the top ten.
Re: Find a Center
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2011 6:37 pm
by [RCG]
Another option would be to package something together to get an unprotected pick to a team that we predict wouldn't do well. Then hope for a chance at Davis or Drummond. Could still end up with a nice SG prospect worse case scenario.