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I've finally found a little time to scrutinize the new CBA, and the most interesting part to me is going to be amnesty free agency. We need a lot more information defining these rules.

1. Will amnesty open up before actual free agency, or will it be a simultaneous free-for-all?

2. Can teams manipulate their cap space to be eligible to bid? For example, a trade, or the amnesty itself, may allow a team to go under the cap.

3. Since only teams under the cap can bid, can a team $5 mil under the cap bid $5 mil on two players? What if both win?

4. Is this a silent auction (everyone places their best bid and the NBA announces the highest one) or an actual auction ("SAC offers $4 mil .. now does anyone want to offer $4.1?")?

5. Who wins ties? The team with the lowest previous record (a la MLB putting players on waivers)?

For the Wolves, Brad Miller still looks like the odds on favorite to be amnestied, but an argument could be made to make it Martell Webster. Webster's salary is a bit higher ($0.5 mil) to provide a slight boost to our available cap space. Also, it may save Glen Taylor a little money in the short run.

If we put Miller up, no one will make a bid on him, and while his salary doesn't count against the cap, Taylor would still have to write the $4.75 mil checks. If he puts up Webster, he has some value. If a team even puts up a $3.5 mil bid on him, that's money Taylor doesn't have to pay, and he's only stuck with the remaining $1.75 mil.

I'd also point out that a private auction that removes many of the destination teams can be used as a source to increase talent and trade value. If we were unable to get a center or SG and still had cap room buring a hole in our pocket, it might make sense to put a $4 mil offer out on a guy we don't even need - say Baron Davis. Baron Davis right now at $14 mil is such a bad deal that a team traded a lottery pick to lose that salary, but Baron Davis at $4 mil is a tradable asset. If the rules allow, MIN could swap him to the Lakers (excluded) for their Sasha TPE and a pick/prospect and cash.

Now, MIN needs to actually win the auction, and right now, we don't know what the format would be. However, this is a team that should be looking for every opportunity, not just to improve the team, but pick up assets of value they can use later to improve.

I'll be interested to see if Atlanta amnesties Joe Johnson and if so how much he'll be offered.

WesJ4 wrote:I'll be interested to see if Atlanta amnesties Joe Johnson and if so how much he'll be offered.

I don't think ATL can afford to amnesty him. If they do, they won't be even close to as good as they are now.

Rather amnesty Miller than Webster, at least Webster can contribute. I think Atlanta would pay Joe Johnson his full salary for him to play rather than $6-$10 million for him to play somewhere else.

moss_is_1 wrote:

WesJ4 wrote:I'll be interested to see if Atlanta amnesties Joe Johnson and if so how much he'll be offered.

I don't think ATL can afford to amnesty him. If they do, they won't be even close to as good as they are now.

Although he's not worth what he's being paid, JJ is still a very good player. I would expect ATL to hold onto the amnesty option and use it on him 2-3 years down the line when a.) his production declines, b.) they don't have to eat as much of the contract and c.) they begin preparing for the stricter cap/tax rules. It's almost a perfect example of how it makes sense to hold onto it for a few years.

I think the amnesty option has to be used before the start of the season.

Worm Guts wrote:I think the amnesty option has to be used before the start of the season.

Larry Coon wrote: The other big change is that teams are allowed to pocket their amnesty card to use later -- so teams that managed their cap well to this point benefit because they don't have to use it or lose it.

However, I think for practical purposes for this free agent draft, they may set a time period when you either have to use the amnesty now or wait until after the season begins, so all these players can be signed by teams under the cap.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/21 ... ty_Players
sounds great

What about waiting for the free agents that went to China to come back in March? Anybody have the patience to wait, and then sign JR Smith, Chandler, etc?

I think it works like a normal waiver process except that you place a bid along with your claim. The player is just awarded by high bid rather than team record. I assume minimum bid would be the vet minimum. So it would be like a silent auction and the player would be awarded after a short waiver period (48 hrs?).

A ton of teams are likely to be in on Brandon Roy.

Esohny wrote:What about waiting for the free agents that went to China to come back in March? Anybody have the patience to wait, and then sign JR Smith, Chandler, etc?

I've thought about that too. JR intrigues me, but would he intrigue Adelman?

Klomp wrote:

Esohny wrote:What about waiting for the free agents that went to China to come back in March? Anybody have the patience to wait, and then sign JR Smith, Chandler, etc?

I've thought about that too. JR intrigues me, but would he intrigue Adelman?

I don't think that Adelman will care for JR Smith's personality/tendencies.

What about T. Outlaw? it seems that he will be amnestied. He could be had cheap. And i believe he would be helpful. I really like his game....at the right price.

Not much room for a 3-4 on this team.

Worm Guts wrote:Not much room for a 3-4 on this team.

Yeah, true. But he can play defense!

shrink wrote: For the Wolves, Brad Miller still looks like the odds on favorite to be amnestied, but an argument could be made to make it Martell Webster. Webster's salary is a bit higher ($0.5 mil) to provide a slight boost to our available cap space. Also, it may save Glen Taylor a little money in the short run.

If we put Miller up, no one will make a bid on him, and while his salary doesn't count against the cap, Taylor would still have to write the $4.75 mil checks. If he puts up Webster, he has some value. If a team even puts up a $3.5 mil bid on him, that's money Taylor doesn't have to pay, and he's only stuck with the remaining $1.75 mil.

1. I'd like to amplify on this choice on who to amnesty. If these are both reasonable scenarios, Taylor would compare and have to decide if he has the roster minutes to give to Webster to be worth paying $3 mil difference in cash. My guess would be yes, but as you can see, even though there is a big difference in the value of the contracts, the choice of who to amnesty is very close.

2. I'd also add that if Taylor wanted to amnesty BOTH Webster and Brad Miller, he can accomplish the same end result by trading Webster directly.

For example, if MIN made some phone calls and found out who was going to make the $3.5 mil offer on Webster, they could do a straight trade to any team with the cap space to be in the auction (or with a TPE, for that matter).

MIN GIVES: Martell Webster + $1.75 mil in cash
MIN GETS: cap space

For the other team, they can lock in their bid at the price they want, and not worry about being outbid. This enhances their ability to plan, and account for cap space. For Taylor, this trade would have the exact same end result as using amnesty clause, but he doesn't have to waste the amnesty (which he would use on Brad Miller).

I'm not sure if anyone would take Martell straight across. He is an okay player, but he's still technically on a 2 year deal at a bit too much considering he is so injury prone.

I have one question. Do these players that are amnestied have the option to go seek deals in other leagues, or are the forced to play out there contract. I ask because if we did decide to amnesty Darko or Pek, I think especially Darko would rather just go play in Europe. Which then probably wouldn't cover his pay out from Taylor.

moss_is_1 wrote:I'm not sure if anyone would take Martell straight across. He is an okay player, but he's still technically on a 2 year deal at a bit too much considering he is so injury prone.

I agree, but if Taylor includes a couple mil in cash (which is basically what he'd have to do if he was amnestied), I think some team would take him.

And if somebody just happen to be reading this thread who isn't familiar with Webster's contract, his second year is only guaranteed for $600,000. Since he has guaranteed salary in 2012, he can be traded after the season is over to a team that wants to shed cap space, so that money may not be seen as a negative thing, like a TPE you have to pay $600,000 for.