Minnesota Timberwolves: A Long Term Outlook

[mikeaman]

Timberwolves have a really bright future in my opinion:

Rubio is the point guard of the future and still has a ways to go in terms of his development. I think it’s safe to say that he can easily be a top 7 point guard. Shved is a flat out steal at the shooting guard position. He also fits Adelman’s system as Adelman likes a shooting guard who can facilitate (he frequently likes to go with two point guard lineups). Love is obviously the power forward of the future (and I think he’ll end up staying past 2016). He's been outspoken that he’s not happy with Kahn but at the end of the day he’s gonna look objectively at the roster.

A core of Rubio/Love/Shved is gonna be hard to beat. I like Kirilenko as a long defender at the small forward position. He’s getting up there in age so in 2014 they might be able to re-sign him for relatively cheap. Pekovic is obviously not a good long term solution playing next to Love if they hope one day to compete for a title. He’s not a good shot blocker at all and they’re both stuck to the ground type players. A look at a few ways to improve their roster:

1. A trade for Anderson Varejao as an upgrade at the center position in the short term. Varejao is obviously having a great year. He’s injury prone but when he’s healthy he’s definitely an upgrade over Pekovic. He’s not a weak side shot blocker either (which you need next to Love) but he’s an upgrade for right now. They also have long perimeter players to build around that core (like Kirielinko) with Rubio having solid defensive instincts as well.

Is a Love/Varejao front court going to win you a championship? Definitely not but it’s more likely to win you a playoff series or two in the coming years than a Love/Pekovic front court. In a deal around Derrick Williams and Nikola Pekovic, I would explore trading for Varejao. But perhaps the best part of trading for Varejao is that he expires In 2015 (I explain why below.)

It’s because looking way out into the future, I would have my eye on Grizzles center Marc Gasol. Expiring and probably leaving an aging Grizzlies squad in 2015, Marc Gasol is a teammate of Ricky Rubio on the Spanish National team. He might be the only player who can get them a championship. If the Timberwolves can hold off on extending Ricky Rubio early, hoopshype shows that Rubio has his qualifying offer in the 2015 offseason. They can offer that (the most they can match then is a 4 year 60 million type offer) and they can sign Marc Gasol who is a free agent that offseason.

While they can’t spend a penny over an approximate 74 million dollar luxury tax threshold (remember it likely increases a bit over time), they can afford to have three max-players on the team if Rubio is on a 4 year 60 million dollar extension as opposed to something higher. And this is all assuming Rubio even becomes a max player.

With approximate average salaries of Love at 20 million, Rubio At 15 million, and Gasol at 18 million, the Timberwolves would still be significantly below the luxury tax threshold with room to add role players over time around that core. And even if they do extend Rubio early, they can still end up having only Rubio
and Love locked up on their 2015 cap space. If those two players are their only two commitments, they will be significantly below the cap that offseason with enough available to sign a quality center like Gasol (with a call from his Spanish National teammate to help persuade him).

But the Timberwolves have a very bright future in my opinion. A core of Rubio/Love/Shved or Rubio/Love/Gasol (with the key being that they’re still operating under the cap in 2015 due to Rubio’s qualifying offer or a reasonable earlier extension, and this team can one day be something special.

[Klomp]

Thank you for your post. I've edited the formatting to make it more reader friendly, hope you don't mind

[vossy_3]

I dont think the center position for the wolves is the problem. Pekovic is a damn good center and would be a waste if we traded for an older, more injury prone varejao. We know rubio is not great offensively, also shved is a bit of a streak shooter (both have great passing ability and good rebounders for there size). Kirilenko is really good is all aspects of the game, but not an elite shooter.
The wolves should be looking for an elite shooter at the sg position, just for example a jj redick or klay thompson type.
Pg - rubio sg- ? sf- kirilenko pf-love c-pekovic

bring shved off the bench in a 6th man role similar to manu and harden.

[MagnusPinus]

I like this team overall... we lack some things in my opinion..

One is definitely experience.. and it shows when the game is on the line.. and second some athleticism... Pek and Love is not an athletic frontcourt at all, Rubio is an ok athlete, same with Shved.. Rid, JJ, all average athletes.. For sure the only elite athlete on this team is DWill but coach doesn't like him.. Then we probably lack a bit of pure talent.. I mean, we pass the ball very well, we have smart players, but we don't have great shooters all around the team, and more important there is no one that really can take the ball and score in important situations..

And frankly is difficult right now to think about a trade, cos I love all the guys in here... It's full of great team players.. When Bud comes back our rotation will be very long and interesting..

Will see.. right now there is a team that plays the right way, but probably it's not athletic enough for this era of the Nba.. Hope I'm wrong

[moss_is_1]

I think Pekovic can be the center of the future. He and Love are an amazing combo offensively, and Pekovic is a pretty damn good man defender. AK being such a great help defender really masks some of Love/Peks issues, plus you don't need to be an elite team on defense...a lot of it can be covered with scheme.

I agree that we could use a starter at SG and bring Shved in as 6th man. Someone like Danny Green would be great...plays very good d on 3 spots, great shooter, and can still create his own shot a bit. I wouldn't mind trying to find a SF to groom behind AK in the upcoming drafts...that would include shopping our pick/D-will to get that person if possible.

We have a great bench right now, but not much room for upside outside of Derrick/Shved. Budinger has looked great, but probably best as a 7th man type that can come in and score. Steemer has been awful, hopefully this off-season we can make a couple of shrewd moves to get some upside guys on the cheap if we don't have to break the bank on Pek/Bud.