THE PROCESS

[breatnach]

...

I think you make some valid points. Every system will always have loopholes and it will be the smart ones and find and use those loopholes. And as long as it's only one or two teams that do it, the league as a whole won't mind. It's like Apple paying their taxes outside the US to save money. It probably won't hurt the country as a whole, as long as only a small number do it, but once everyone starts doing it, your business might be at a distinct disadvantage if you didn't follow suit.

Basically if the Philly model proves to be the most successful (and it's not a given, because injuries and bad picks can ruin it), more teams may attempt it. If every team outside of the 2-3 favourites were to intentionally tank, the league would be in huge trouble. I think it's more Silver's problem to fix than ours.

The other thing I just wanted to say was that although all teams are in fact companies, they have one very key element that most businessnes don't. Passion. Passion is what drives people to watch losing teams, to cheer for the underdogs and support their home team. And the league needs to fuel that passion, or else everyone would just become a GSW fan (a bandwaggoner). The league needs there to be rivalries and fans of teams that aren't doing so well. If team owners want to keep fans engaged, they need to tap into that passion. No one gets passionate about Apple when they report a huge profit margin or when Google announces a new aquisition.

So even though NBA teams, like Google and Apple, are run by a CEO, pay their employees and lawyers and exist primarily to turn a profit, owners would be smart to hide that fact. We aren't Timberwolves fans because we are being rational, in fact we all have our own irrational reasons for supporting a team that has sucked for the past decade and for some lies thousands of miles away. Passion is inherently irrational and nothing kills passion more than rationality and efficiency.

[beezy]

The process for the Timberwolves has been great fun to watch. Flip started it all off with the Love for Wiggins deal. After that he did a nice subtle tank job in 14-15 which was 76er like but way more under the radar. We lucked (FINALLY) into Towns. Lavine was a nice surprise who kept building on his potential enough to be packaged by Thibs for Butler. Our process is so much more satisfying because 2 of the big 3 were obtained by FLEECING another team.

[Oriole8159]

The 76ers need to be championship or bust in my opinion for this to be considered a success.

Patrick Ewing, Reggie Miller, Karl Malone, D'Antoni's Suns etc. may never have won a championship, but at least there was honor in how they attempted. As an impartial fan, I can respect that. (And please don't bring up Ewing/Malone ring chasing later in their careers when they weren't stars as I acknowledge that's different, but the Sixers convo can only be relevant in the context of stars.)

If they can't win a championship under this model, then it's a failure.
Simple as that.

[KGdaBom]

I think people against the sixers methodology are illogical and emotional. Theres no honor in "trying" and failing, theres no feel good story from the last 13 years of being a wolves fan, its black and white, win or lose.

The NBA is a star driven league where one player has a larger impact on team success than any other major sport. Adding stars to your team is vital if you wish to be a relevant NBA franchise. How do you get stars? You draft one, you sign one in FA, or you trade assets for one.

You can not control free agency or a players desires, theres no guarantee you can sign one regardless of how much cap space or sweet talking you do, its an unreliable method for building unless you are the lakers basically. Trades require you to have assets to send out, are again something you can not control or plan for (player availability, trading teams demands etc), basically you cant build a team with the plan of "we will trade for some stars". So we are left with drafting being the most likely, cheapest, and most reliable option for attaining them. Where are stars typically at in the draft? At the top. Theres always guys throughout the draft who outperform their draft slot and steals can be had, but the most surefire way to land a star is by having one of the top picks. So logic dictates if you want to land stars you should:

A: accumulate high draft picks
B: take players with the highest "potential"
C: increase your chances of landing one by increasing the number of swings you can take at them

Was Embiid a bad pick? No, it fits the mentality PERFECTLY as he has shown to be a potential superstar. His injury concerns and missed time isnt their fault, its obviously a risk but its one made with a very logical plan. Should they have taken Aaron Gordon? Dante Exum? Marcus Smart? Julius Randle? Nik Stauskus? Those were the next 5 picks and I would take a 1/10 chance on Embiid over those 5 COMBINED. So they traded for Saric, who appears to be a pretty good player...so? We shouldnt have drafted Rubio because he wouldnt come over for 2 years? HOW DISGUSTING OF US! They should feel bad about taking the clear #1 pick in Simmons because he hurt his foot? Jesus.

They ran that team logically, from a math perspective, in lieu of a bunch of babies crying foul. I respect their methodology and it certainly appears to be paying off for them. They were able to parlay some of those assets into Fultz this year and still have movable players, a good cap situation, and numerous draft picks to continue to build on a very good core. Meanwhile we have put up with over a decade of no future trash before we lucked into Towns, but hey, we sure were trying hard!

There process hasn't worked at all. They have sucked beyond suck for years with no end in sight. If you think rookie Fultz and recovering from injury Simmons and Embiid are prizes whatever. Yes you can admire them and their disgusting attempt to utilize basically cheating to create a good team. I will despise them and so far they have got what they deserve.

[KGdaBom]

I think our process is to make the playoffs for the next two years, then use the cap space from an expiring Teague, Crawford & Gibson to try and a run at the title.

After the 2019 season, you'll have 4 years of Wiggins and 5 years of both Butler & KAT. 3 max players and some cap space to hopefully attract either some ring chasers or help a struggling team rebuild by giving them cap space for their large contracts. Maybe Miami decides they don't want to pay Whiteside 25m to be in the lotto, maybe LAC wants out of Blake's new deal? We will also have our own picks in '19 and '20 that we can deal to rebuilding teams.

We will have no significant cap space. Wiggins/Butler/Towns will eat up 90%. We will need to resign Teague and everyone possible.

[Oriole8159]

I don't think Embiid was a bad pick, but the problem they're facing now is they're going to have to max the guy after this year, and right now they only have 35 games or so of play to base their opinion of him.

They can't afford to max him and guess wrong and have him become Pek like which is a very real possibility, so what do they need to see from him this year to justify giving him his next contract?
If they push him to really make sure of what he is, they could run the risk of further aggravation. If they're too light, they may not have enough clarity of if he can stay healthy for when they really need him.

I'm interested purely from a case study standpoint in the Simmons/Fultz/Saric/Embiid group, but after missing on Okafor and Noel, their window for error is small. If they max Embiid and he can't deliver on his promise, I don't think Philly can recover.

[Mattya]

I don't think Embiid was a bad pick, but the problem they're facing now is they're going to have to max the guy after this year, and right now they only have 35 games or so of play to base their opinion of him.

They can't afford to max him and guess wrong and have him become Pek like which is a very real possibility, so what do they need to see from him this year to justify giving him his next contract?
If they push him to really make sure of what he is, they could run the risk of further aggravation. If they're too light, they may not have enough clarity of if he can stay healthy for when they really need him.

I'm interested purely from a case study standpoint in the Simmons/Fultz/Saric/Embiid group, but after missing on Okafor and Noel, their window for error is small. If they max Embiid and he can't deliver on his promise, I don't think Philly can recover.

Embiid was the right pick. It is a risky pick if he can never be consistently healthy, but you can't pass on that reward for any other players that followed in that draft. Now Okafor was absolutely the wrong pick.

[Oriole8159]

I don't think Embiid was a bad pick, but the problem they're facing now is they're going to have to max the guy after this year, and right now they only have 35 games or so of play to base their opinion of him.

They can't afford to max him and guess wrong and have him become Pek like which is a very real possibility, so what do they need to see from him this year to justify giving him his next contract?
If they push him to really make sure of what he is, they could run the risk of further aggravation. If they're too light, they may not have enough clarity of if he can stay healthy for when they really need him.

I'm interested purely from a case study standpoint in the Simmons/Fultz/Saric/Embiid group, but after missing on Okafor and Noel, their window for error is small. If they max Embiid and he can't deliver on his promise, I don't think Philly can recover.

Embiid was the right pick. It is a risky pick if he can never be consistently healthy, but you can't pass on that reward for any other players that followed in that draft. Now Okafor was absolutely the wrong pick.

agreed, so prob should have instead of saying "I don't think Embiid was a bad pick" I should have said "Embiid was the right pick."

but hinging so much of their future on him is the risk, and they've got that decision staring them right in the face.

[PuppyBite]

One thing I see lacking from OUR PROCESS is flipping for assets. Great. There is a solid starting five. How do you fill in the rest of the roster? I don't consider the Rubio trade to be that impressive for securing a future asset. Good organizations develop in-house. Where is the youth? Warriors bought a later draft pick...

[PuppyBite]

... Too early still? Is the Process bring in only a few guys you trust and burn them out? With such a short rotation it just adds to the disappointment that more players from the "deep" 2017 draft aren't sitting at the end of the Wolves bench.