Offensive distribution, will there be an odd man out?

[Mamba4Goat]

Before we all hop down my throat, I'm a closet Wolves fan (hometown team) and am very interested in them. That being said...

With the addition of Butler and Teague, to a lesser extent Crawford, and the retention of Bazz the Wolves now have a plethora of guys who can put the ball in the hoop. Looking at last year's ppg there's KAT at 25.1, Wiggins at 23.6, Butler at 23.9, Teague at 15.3, Crawford at 12.3, and Bazz at roughly 10 (same with Dieng).

I'm not too worried about the role players being a concern, just noting that Crawford and Bazz don't bring all that much to the table other than scoring. However, now looking at the 4 starters, it's easy to see diminished roles. KAT likely won't see a drop in touches, but will Wiggins? Butler could see a slight drop as it may allow him to focus more on defense seeing as he's never had a supporting cast as offensively competent as Minny and they'll need his defense but is that enough not to have someone marginalized? Teague will likely get his but, he may see a drop in numbers as well.

So all random rambling aside, I'll get to my question. Who out of Teague, Butler, Wiggins, and Towns do you guys see having to make the biggest sacrifice for the team and why?

[KGdaBom]

Mamba the only reason I would hop down your throat is your name can't be serious.
That said you just mentioned 110 ppg from last year not including Gibson and Dieng for another 20. Wouldn't it be nice if all our players could match their scoring from last year. Obviously not going to happen. I don't see KAT taking a step back on the scoring so it basically has to be everybody else. I do see us averaging 110 PPG this season. Too much scoring not to.

[shrink]

Mamba is right. I mentioned this in a thread about adding Carmelo Anthony a few days ago, but here are some numbers:

2016-17 Field Goal Attempts

19.1 Wiggins
18.0 Towns
18.0 Butler
11.1 Teague
10.6 Crawford

8.1 Dieng
7.8 Gibson
7.7 Shabazz
5.5 Bjelica
3.5 Tyus
1.4 Aldrich
-----------------
110.8 FGA

Last year, the highest FGA any team had was 87.7

Anyone want to try projecting a new number that gets us down to even 87?

[Grits n Gravy]

I think it will simply shake out that KAT is the primary guy who butters the bread and Wiggy and Jimmy B assume the 2a and 2b role night in and night with each stepping up or down to each other depending on match up and rhythm.

Like you said the other guys don't concern me too much and each of the big three will have stints with the other 2 on the bench to carry the load. I'm slightly concerned about Jimmy accepting his place in the pecking order, but not too much.

I think Wiggy will end up making the biggest sacrifice offensively but it won't be too much to worry about as he will already be on a max and it will hopefully enable him to focus on developing and contributing in multiple areas(defense, ball movement, rebounding), He should certainly have no excuses to not put forth the effort to become a better defender and efficient player.

[Slim Tubby]

You have to assume that Teague will average 3-5 more shot attempts per game than Rubio did last year. I would expect that Butler will assume all of the shots that a healthy LaVine was taking and I wouldn't cut down on KAT's usage in any way. My best guess is that Wiggy and Dieng will take the hit although it's tough for me to imagine Wiggins willingly sacrificing his shot attempts. In a perfect world, Wiggy expends more energy on the defensive end and shares the ball more on offense. This is where I hope Butler's presence pays the biggest dividends for us by mentoring Wiggy.

[MN7725]

KAT, I wouldn't be surprised if he averaged less than 20 ppg with something like 13 FGA, 4 FTA

He is simply going to have the ball in his hands less than others, its easier to take away a post player than a perimeter players

It's not like we didn't see KAT have trouble getting touches for like entire quarters when the defensive intensity naturally picks up later in games

There would be a certain amount of force feeding of KAT because Wolves had guys like Rubio, Rush, Bjelica, Dunn, Aldrich that would be so hesitant to shoot.

Replacing them with Teague, JC, Gibson with more minutes for Bazz/Tyus instead of Rush/Dunn will eliminate that

I think Butler and Wiggins will be staggered in lineups quite a bit so they won't be competing for shots on the court at the same time

And it will be a common complaint in media/fans that super efficient KAT isn't getting enough shots while guys like Teague/Wig/JC are taking more shots in a given game

[KGdaBom]

KAT, I wouldn't be surprised if he averaged less than 20 ppg with something like 13 FGA, 4 FTA

He is simply going to have the ball in his hands less than others, its easier to take away a post player than a perimeter players

It's not like we didn't see KAT have trouble getting touches for like entire quarters when the defensive intensity naturally picks up later in games

There would be a certain amount of force feeding of KAT because Wolves had guys like Rubio, Rush, Bjelica, Dunn, Aldrich that would be so hesitant to shoot.

Replacing them with Teague, JC, Gibson with more minutes for Bazz/Tyus instead of Rush/Dunn will eliminate that

I think Butler and Wiggins will be staggered in lineups quite a bit so they won't be competing for shots on the court at the same time

And it will be a common complaint in media/fans that super efficient KAT isn't getting enough shots while guys like Teague/Wig/JC are taking more shots in a given game

I think and hope you will prove to be very wrong about this. KAT is an ascending player that may soon be the best in the league. He is not a traditional back to the basket center and will have no problem getting his shots.

[Mamba4Goat]

KAT, I wouldn't be surprised if he averaged less than 20 ppg with something like 13 FGA, 4 FTA

He is simply going to have the ball in his hands less than others, its easier to take away a post player than a perimeter players

It's not like we didn't see KAT have trouble getting touches for like entire quarters when the defensive intensity naturally picks up later in games

There would be a certain amount of force feeding of KAT because Wolves had guys like Rubio, Rush, Bjelica, Dunn, Aldrich that would be so hesitant to shoot.

Replacing them with Teague, JC, Gibson with more minutes for Bazz/Tyus instead of Rush/Dunn will eliminate that

I think Butler and Wiggins will be staggered in lineups quite a bit so they won't be competing for shots on the court at the same time

And it will be a common complaint in media/fans that super efficient KAT isn't getting enough shots while guys like Teague/Wig/JC are taking more shots in a given game

Surely it will not be KAT. He's a young budding superstar that can do just about everything offensively. To take shots away from him would be crazy. Will it hurt having Teague instead of Rubio down the stretch when it's hard to get the ball to him? Sure. But will more than enough plays still be drawn for him? Definitely.

[KGdaBom]

KAT, I wouldn't be surprised if he averaged less than 20 ppg with something like 13 FGA, 4 FTA

He is simply going to have the ball in his hands less than others, its easier to take away a post player than a perimeter players

It's not like we didn't see KAT have trouble getting touches for like entire quarters when the defensive intensity naturally picks up later in games

There would be a certain amount of force feeding of KAT because Wolves had guys like Rubio, Rush, Bjelica, Dunn, Aldrich that would be so hesitant to shoot.

Replacing them with Teague, JC, Gibson with more minutes for Bazz/Tyus instead of Rush/Dunn will eliminate that

I think Butler and Wiggins will be staggered in lineups quite a bit so they won't be competing for shots on the court at the same time

And it will be a common complaint in media/fans that super efficient KAT isn't getting enough shots while guys like Teague/Wig/JC are taking more shots in a given game

Surely it will not be KAT. He's a young budding superstar that can do just about everything offensively. To take shots away from him would be crazy. Will it hurt having Teague instead of Rubio down the stretch when it's hard to get the ball to him? Sure. But will more than enough plays still be drawn for him? Definitely.

I think KAT would actually score 20 or more a game with never having a play ran for him. He is just that talented.

[MN7725]

KAT, I wouldn't be surprised if he averaged less than 20 ppg with something like 13 FGA, 4 FTA

He is simply going to have the ball in his hands less than others, its easier to take away a post player than a perimeter players

It's not like we didn't see KAT have trouble getting touches for like entire quarters when the defensive intensity naturally picks up later in games

There would be a certain amount of force feeding of KAT because Wolves had guys like Rubio, Rush, Bjelica, Dunn, Aldrich that would be so hesitant to shoot.

Replacing them with Teague, JC, Gibson with more minutes for Bazz/Tyus instead of Rush/Dunn will eliminate that

I think Butler and Wiggins will be staggered in lineups quite a bit so they won't be competing for shots on the court at the same time

And it will be a common complaint in media/fans that super efficient KAT isn't getting enough shots while guys like Teague/Wig/JC are taking more shots in a given game

Surely it will not be KAT. He's a young budding superstar that can do just about everything offensively. To take shots away from him would be crazy. Will it hurt having Teague instead of Rubio down the stretch when it's hard to get the ball to him? Sure. But will more than enough plays still be drawn for him? Definitely.

It should help to have Teague instead of Rubio, Teague's man is less likely to sit in KAT's lap when Teague is attempting a post entry pass like they would with Rubio


But it's about what opposing defenses will try to take away, that will be KAT most games

KAT can still get out on the perimeter and get shots and drive the ball, but that is a "win" for the defense if Wolves do that

So I think it's pretty likely Wolves offense will be similar to what it was last year, but Thibs is betting that new guys will do more with the space KAT provides by drawing so much attention

KAT's assists should skyrocket if that occurs, but his FGA/PPG will drop

Therefore I think there is a good chance KAT will be more like 19-20 ppg, 13-14 FGA, 5+ APG
instead of 25 PPG, 18 FGA, 2.7 APG like he was last year



The best case scenario for KAT would be the inverse, where the new guys provide KAT with more space and he gets easier looks with the same or higher usage and would probably compete for scoring title. That is possible

[Calinks]

I too think Kat may get less touches. Bulter will be the got to scorer. Its a guards game and as great as KAT is, they are still going to play through the elite wing player first. Kat will still get plenty of jumpers up but the post play will probably be reduced unless there is a big advantage we want to exploit. Just the nature of the league today, bigs have to play second fiddle permiter scoring. Not to say it will be a huge drop but KAT will be the second option.

[KGdaBom]

I too think Kat may get less touches. Bulter will be the got to scorer. Its a guards game and as great as KAT is, they are still going to play through the elite wing player first. Kat will still get plenty of jumpers up but the post play will probably be reduced unless there is a big advantage we want to exploit. Just the nature of the league today, bigs have to play second fiddle permiter scoring. Not to say it will be a huge drop but KAT will be the second option.

Last year KAT did what he did with Wiggins in the position you are talking about for Butler. Butler is a far better distributor than WIggins. KAT's opportunities if anything will go up not down is the way I see it. However, maybe you are right so you take Butler and Leave KAT to me in our fantasy league.

[MN7725]

I too think Kat may get less touches. Bulter will be the got to scorer. Its a guards game and as great as KAT is, they are still going to play through the elite wing player first. Kat will still get plenty of jumpers up but the post play will probably be reduced unless there is a big advantage we want to exploit. Just the nature of the league today, bigs have to play second fiddle permiter scoring. Not to say it will be a huge drop but KAT will be the second option.

Bingo

I think Butler will be 25-26 ppg on awesome efficiency, hasn't played with someone at KAT's level since healthy D-Rose
KAT 19-20 ppg
Wig- 17-18 ppg
Teague- 15-16 ppg
JC- 12-13 ppg
Taj/Dieng 14-15 ppg combined

102-108 PPG from top 7 scorers

Could be a point or two deviation for an individual player, but as a group about what should be expected
But that is assuming perfect health

If Butler misses 15 games. Wig and KAT will go up significantly in those games so their averages would bump up

[KGdaBom]

I too think Kat may get less touches. Bulter will be the got to scorer. Its a guards game and as great as KAT is, they are still going to play through the elite wing player first. Kat will still get plenty of jumpers up but the post play will probably be reduced unless there is a big advantage we want to exploit. Just the nature of the league today, bigs have to play second fiddle permiter scoring. Not to say it will be a huge drop but KAT will be the second option.

Bingo

I think Butler will be 25-26 ppg on awesome efficiency, hasn't played with someone at KAT's level since healthy D-Rose
KAT 19-20 ppg
Wig- 17-18 ppg
Teague- 15-16 ppg
JC- 12-13 ppg
Taj/Dieng 14-15 ppg combined

102-108 PPG from top 7 scorers

Could be a point or two deviation for an individual player, but as a group about what should be expected
But that is assuming perfect health

If Butler misses 15 games. Wig and KAT will go up significantly in those games so their averages would bump up

You keep up with this talk MN. It will do wonders for my fantasy league chances if my competitors pay attention. To me the idea that KAT could even conceivably score less than 20PPG is absurd. 23-28 is the range I'm expecting. Time will tell.
Zach LaVine scored 19PPG for us last year.

[MN7725]

Mamba is right. I mentioned this in a thread about adding Carmelo Anthony a few days ago, but here are some numbers:

2016-17 Field Goal Attempts

19.1 Wiggins
18.0 Towns
18.0 Butler
11.1 Teague
10.6 Crawford

8.1 Dieng
7.8 Gibson
7.7 Shabazz
5.5 Bjelica
3.5 Tyus
1.4 Aldrich
-----------------
110.8 FGA

Last year, the highest FGA any team had was 87.7

Anyone want to try projecting a new number that gets us down to even 87?

17 Butler
14 Towns
13 Wig
11 Teague
9 JC
7 Dieng
7 Taj
5 Bazz

is 83 FGA

Missed games can obviously screw up averages. Especially if one of the big 3 misses a stretch the other two will get cranked up

That group of players had about as good a season last year health-wise as can be expected

[ace625214]

Butler has talked in the past about how he thinks he could/wants to play PG. I think the ball will be in his hands the most, but he'll be distributing a lot of the time. Here's my prediction

....OLD...................NEW........
19.1 Wiggins........ 17.5 Wiggins
18.0 Towns...........17.9 Towns
18.0 Butler........... 15.5 Butler
11.1 Teague..........10.2 Teague
10.6 Crawford........ 6.2 Crawford

8.1 Dieng............. 6.1 Dieng (Doesn't start, but is a big producer with the bench unit)
7.8 Gibson........... 5.2 Gibson (Will play more with the starters than Dieng, but will score almost solely on putbacks or dump-offs)
7.7 Shabazz.......... 4.8 Shabazz (Will have games where he puts up 10+ shots and games where he plays very few minutes)
5.5 Bjelica............ 1.7 Bjelica (Will have to prove he deserves a rotation spot. 3-5 shots when he plays, but decent amount of DNPs)
3.5 Tyus............... 1.5 Tyus (Could change if Jamal is bad, but I think he starts with a good amount of DNP-CDs or low-minute games)
1.4 Aldrich............0.4 Aldrich (I think he'll average more like 1.2, but only play in every third game)
----------------------------------------
110.8.................87.0


I think the top-4 are going to be pretty accurate. Wiggins may drop a bit more, and I initially had Teague in the 9s. The next four I'm less sure of. Crawford could easily look old and lose his job completely to Tyus, especially since we project to have quite a few capable bench players. Bazz might not improve on D and get stuck on the bench. Dieng could prove to only get backup center minutes and play less than previous seasons.

[Rashoismydad]

Towns FGA stays about the same, Butler and Wiggins both drop 2-3.

Towns - 18
Wiggins - 16
Butler - 15

Outside of that who cares? Everybody else will fit in the cracks and take what is left over. I think Towns scoring stays around the same or improves slightly, And Butler/Wiggins both come in around 21-22 PPG.

[C.lupus]

Mamba is right. I mentioned this in a thread about adding Carmelo Anthony a few days ago, but here are some numbers:

2016-17 Field Goal Attempts

19.1 Wiggins
18.0 Towns
18.0 Butler
11.1 Teague
10.6 Crawford

8.1 Dieng
7.8 Gibson
7.7 Shabazz
5.5 Bjelica
3.5 Tyus
1.4 Aldrich
-----------------
110.8 FGA

Last year, the highest FGA any team had was 87.7

Anyone want to try projecting a new number that gets us down to even 87?

16 Towns
16 Butler
15 Wiggins
9 Teague
8 Crawford
6 Dieng
5 Gibson
4 Shabazz
4 Bjelica
4 Tyus
0 Aldrich

87 Total

[KGdaBom]

Mamba is right. I mentioned this in a thread about adding Carmelo Anthony a few days ago, but here are some numbers:

2016-17 Field Goal Attempts

19.1 Wiggins
18.0 Towns
18.0 Butler
11.1 Teague
10.6 Crawford

8.1 Dieng
7.8 Gibson
7.7 Shabazz
5.5 Bjelica
3.5 Tyus
1.4 Aldrich
-----------------
110.8 FGA

Last year, the highest FGA any team had was 87.7

Anyone want to try projecting a new number that gets us down to even 87?

16 Towns
16 Butler
15 Wiggins
9 Teague
8 Crawford
6 Dieng
5 Gibson
4 Shabazz
4 Bjelica
4 Tyus
0 Aldrich

87 Total

What?? No Patton?

[C.lupus]

Mamba is right. I mentioned this in a thread about adding Carmelo Anthony a few days ago, but here are some numbers:

2016-17 Field Goal Attempts

19.1 Wiggins
18.0 Towns
18.0 Butler
11.1 Teague
10.6 Crawford

8.1 Dieng
7.8 Gibson
7.7 Shabazz
5.5 Bjelica
3.5 Tyus
1.4 Aldrich
-----------------
110.8 FGA

Last year, the highest FGA any team had was 87.7

Anyone want to try projecting a new number that gets us down to even 87?

16 Towns
16 Butler
15 Wiggins
9 Teague
8 Crawford
6 Dieng
5 Gibson
4 Shabazz
4 Bjelica
4 Tyus
0 Aldrich

87 Total

What?? No Patton?

Forgot Patton. Don't know how much playing time he'll have here, though with his foot injury and all. I could see him getting more time in Iowa, tbh. For this exercise, add 0.5 fga for him.