ImageImageImage

RealGM Wolves Capology

Moderators: Domejandro, Calinks, Worm Guts

User avatar
Killboard
Analyst
Posts: 3,117
And1: 818
Joined: Jul 16, 2010

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#41 » by Killboard » Thu Feb 6, 2020 6:46 pm

I dont know exactly where the cap will be next season, but is likely to be above 115M, with 117M it would end up something like this (red numers are unguaranteed contracts and). Obviously Beasley, Hernangomez and the 2 owned picks for next year draft should be signed (but we could also unload Dieng expiring with some of those attached).
Image
User avatar
LibertyPrime
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,874
And1: 1,487
Joined: Dec 08, 2013
   

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#42 » by LibertyPrime » Thu Feb 6, 2020 11:12 pm

Killboard wrote:I dont know exactly where the cap will be next season, but is likely to be above 115M, with 117M it would end up something like this (red numers are unguaranteed contracts and). Obviously Beasley, Hernangomez and the 2 owned picks for next year draft should be signed (but we could also unload Dieng expiring with some of those attached).
Image


Thanks for doing this. It's a shame you're going to have to re-do it after today. :P
"The last domino falls here!"
Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 55,056
And1: 11,532
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#43 » by Klomp » Thu Feb 6, 2020 11:14 pm

I've updated the first post btw
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Mamba4Goat
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 9,750
And1: 6,573
Joined: Dec 13, 2013
   

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#44 » by Mamba4Goat » Fri Feb 7, 2020 5:28 am

I didn't realize that the trades put Minnesota into the tax. Uffda. At least Crabbe/ET free up $35mil for next year.
Rest in peace Mamba. There'll never be another Kobe.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 43,934
And1: 5,075
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#45 » by shrink » Fri Feb 7, 2020 6:40 am

Being $600,000 over the lux isn’t a big deal - you offer to buy out one of your players where they leave that on the table. They will probably make moves to get under, since they are so close.

But even if MIN stays over the lux, that wouldn’t be horrible. $600,000 over is less than $1 mil in lux tax. MIN is unlikely to get into the repeater tax. And as for the lux share, very few teams are paying lux penalties this year, so 1/60th of the total is not a lot of money.
User avatar
breatnach
Starter
Posts: 2,148
And1: 783
Joined: Apr 17, 2010
Location: Munich

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#46 » by breatnach » Fri Feb 7, 2020 8:31 am

So if the numbers above are correct (account for a minor difference between Gorgui and Johnson's numbers), we should have 29m in cap space?

Beasley will probably command around $12m (he reportedly turned down $10m per), so that leaves about $17m to round out the roster. Closer to $10m if we chose to keep Juancho.

I wonder if you could try and sign Otto Porter Jr if we decline Juancho. He's definitely not getting upward of $20m this time.
Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 55,056
And1: 11,532
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#47 » by Klomp » Fri Feb 7, 2020 8:42 am

Killboard wrote:I dont know exactly where the cap will be next season, but is likely to be above 115M, with 117M it would end up something like this (red numers are unguaranteed contracts and). Obviously Beasley, Hernangomez and the 2 owned picks for next year draft should be signed (but we could also unload Dieng expiring with some of those attached).
Image

No Spellman btw
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 55,056
And1: 11,532
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#48 » by Klomp » Fri Feb 7, 2020 8:58 am

shrink wrote:Being $600,000 over the lux isn’t a big deal - you offer to buy out one of your players where they leave that on the table. They will probably make moves to get under, since they are so close.

But even if MIN stays over the lux, that wouldn’t be horrible. $600,000 over is less than $1 mil in lux tax. MIN is unlikely to get into the repeater tax. And as for the lux share, very few teams are paying lux penalties this year, so 1/60th of the total is not a lot of money.

Basically what Hollinger had to say (though the luxury tax figure is a little higher)

As a result, Minnesota finishes the night $1,324,442 into the luxury tax – even after achieving slight savings in a later trade of Gorgui Dieng for James Johnson. While it is theoretically possible for Minnesota to skip the tax in buyouts with Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner, the money those two would give back is likely more than each could get on the open market. Don’t bet on it.

Going into the tax with this franchise and this owner is a major use of political capital for a new front office, but you can see the justification here. For starters, the penalty for landing in the tax isn’t just the 1.5 times multiplier on each dollar over; tax teams also miss out on the distribution that goes to the teams under the tax. That distribution is often in the $3 million range, but this year will be a paltry $200,000, give or take a few dollars for some year-end maneuvers by the four teams in the tax. Thus, what might have been a $6 million total expense for the Wolves in other years will barely be half that in 2020.


https://theathletic.com/1590506/2020/02/06/hollinger-the-key-to-the-dangelo-russell-trade-isnt-who-minnesota-received-its-who-they-traded/
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
User avatar
Killboard
Analyst
Posts: 3,117
And1: 818
Joined: Jul 16, 2010

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#49 » by Killboard » Fri Feb 7, 2020 3:51 pm

Updated with Beasley and Juancho capholds. The salary of the 2 1st round picks should be taken from the 15M availabe (if not traded).
Red contracts are unguaranteed, but the wolves should not be clearing space cutting them since they need the roster cap holds anyway.


Image
post0115
Junior
Posts: 347
And1: 20
Joined: Dec 17, 2006

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#50 » by post0115 » Sat Feb 8, 2020 12:43 am

The roughly 15mm is nice in cap space. Guessing the 2 1st round picks would be about 8mm, but we could also stretch James Johnson over 3 years (gives us 10mm in cap this Summer) and I don't think Juancho (4.6) is a given to resign or we could resign a little cheaper than the hold. We could definitely have the option to sign a big free agent this Summer though this FA class looks weak.
post0115
Junior
Posts: 347
And1: 20
Joined: Dec 17, 2006

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#51 » by post0115 » Sat Feb 8, 2020 1:04 pm

I really didn't like him when he was younger, but a nice free agent target would be Austin Rivers (27). He is likely to opt out based on how cheap his contract is (2.4/), and has really progressed as a shooter and can play both the 1 and 2 effectively.
mplsfonz23
Analyst
Posts: 3,602
And1: 1,193
Joined: Jun 13, 2017
   

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#52 » by mplsfonz23 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:57 pm

Question about Hernangomez and Beasley.
They have a QO for 20/21. Did they both turn that down?
Do they have to play that contract out? Also, McLaughlin is playing for peanuts this year. The way he's playing, he could be in line for a bigger payday. Although I don't expect to break the bank for him, but 2-3 mil to be the backup sounds solid.
Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 55,056
And1: 11,532
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#53 » by Klomp » Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:06 pm

mplsfonz23 wrote:Question about Hernangomez and Beasley.
They have a QO for 20/21. Did they both turn that down?
Do they have to play that contract out?

That comes in the offseason, and is typically just a precursor to restricted free agency.

In order to make their free agent a restricted free agent, a team must submit a qualifying offer to the player between the day following the last game of the NBA Finals and June 29. The qualifying offer is a standing offer for a one-year guaranteed contract, which becomes a regular contact if the player decides to sign it. This ensures that the team does not gain the right of first refusal without offering a contract themselves.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q42
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 43,934
And1: 5,075
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: RealGM Wolves Capology 

Post#54 » by shrink » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:30 pm

I just wanted to mention that I saw some final numbers, and the Wolves are only $1.3 mil over the luxury threshold. Generally, teams that are that close will make a move or two to duck under. Perhaps they are talking with Evan Turner to see if he’d leave that money on the table, and his agent is seeing if there is a job out there for him on a playoff team?

Anyway, I thought I’d write something to help people understand the luxury tax in simple terms, and how it would affect the Wolves this year.

This year, the stakes to get under are pretty low, in the three benefits being under the lux gives you.

1. Cutting $1.3 mil is still saving $1.3 mil (this is pro-rated for being 60% of the way through the season). As for the additional lux penalty, the first $5 mil a team is over the lux, the penalty is $1.5 dollars for each dollar over. For us, that means a lux penalty around $2 mil. These penalties get much steeper for every $5 mil your payroll ends up over the lux, so the $2 mil is a slap on the wrist compared to many tax bills.

2. Teams that are under the lux get a share of the lux penalties collected. Half goes to the league, the other half divided by the under-the-lux teams. Many years several teams may go far into the lux, and it generally can earn an owner about $3 mil. This year we have very few teams over the lux (more teams to divide the pot), and the ones that are over the lux aren’t over by much. The estimated lux share for 2020 is only $0.3 mil .. one tenth what is normal. If we go over the lux this year, we aren’t missing much,

3. The final penalty for the lux is the repeater tax - a bigger percentage of lux payment if you’ve been over the lux for a number of years in a small time frame. This may be the biggest reason to try to slide back under. While I don’t doubt Glen Taylor will pay the lux for a winner (heck, he added $8 mil more to his payroll for this crappy season!), the repeater tax is designed to control even the biggest markets. MIN does not have the revenues of, say, the Lakers, and even with a true contender, this market would make it tough to pay the repeater. However, while the repeater is an extreme penalty, but it is rare and avoidable with several seasons to work with.


I think we will still see Rosas try to get the buy-out that will get MIN under the luxury threshold. If they shave $1.5 mil, they’d save about $3.8 mil, and that’s not nothing. They would also get a little insurance against the repeater. However, since the gains this year are so small, I don’t think you’ll see any desperate moves, as we have seen from other teams in more important seasons.

Return to Minnesota Timberwolves