RealGM Wolves Capology

[shrink]

Jordan McLaughin - eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer (2 years as a two-way)

Jarred Vanderbilt is a RFA, with a $2,079,826 qualifying offer / cap hold

Extension Eligible Players this summer

Josh Okogie (rookie scale)

Jaylen Nowell (veteran) non-guaranteed
Naz Reid (veteran) non-guaranteed

Ricky Rubio (veteran)
D’Angelo Russell (veteran)
Karl-Anthony Towns (veteran)

[Klomp]

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[Klomp]

Updated to current year's salaries

[shrink]

I hope you don’t mind Klomp, but with the trade deadline passed, I wanted to make a rough estimate for this summer:

KATowns: $33.8
DRussell: $31.4
Beasley: $15.5
Beverley: $13.0
Edwards: $10.7
Vanderbilt: $4.5
LBolmaro: $2.5
McDaniels: $2.1
McLaughlin: $1.9
J Nowell: $1.9
Naz Reid: $1.9
———————————
11-man Total $119.2

Likely Additions:

Mid-Level Exception: $10.1 (if full MLE is used)
1st Round Pick (16-20): $2.5
1 (of 3) 2nd Rounders: $1.0
Prince re-signed with Bird rights: $6.0

15-man Total $138.8

2022-23 Salary Cap estimated at $121. (Up from $112.4 this year)
2022-23 Luxury Cap estimates at $147. (Up from $136.6 this year)

Beverley, JMac
Russell, Beasley, Nowell
Edwards, McDaniels, Bolmaro
Vanderbilt, MLE?, Prince
Towns, Naz

Rookies and two-way could be anywhere - best value.

[shrink]

Implications

1. I assume that with Smart out of the picture for now, and team chemistry so good, that the Wolves will reach an extension with Beverley before the season ends. It’s very difficult to come up with a good estimate, because he’s been so good, but at 33 and missing games, a team doesn’t know what it will get. If I had to pick a number, I’d expect Bev to get a little overpaid up front, and have the second year partially guaranteed. However, Bev likes it here, and he make want to take less money up front to try to get an extra year. I suspect MIN prefers the two year idea, so that his contract can be combined to salary match a big trade.

2. I think we’ll see MIN use most of the MLE, on one or two players, but the obvious need is a starter-level true big ..even if he doesn’t always start. MIN needs a player or two on decent salaries so, again, they have salary matching tools if they have a chance of adding a star.

3. I think it’s unlikely Okogie will be brought back. Prince might be. It mainly depends on the rest of his/our season, and the number he expects. This could diverge greatly - he’s not a starter here, and how firmly is he even in the bench rotation? Still, he has upside as he gets healthier, and he is also reported to be a calming, vet voice in the locker room. We could do worse.

[Klomp]

I hope you don’t mind Klomp, but with the trade deadline passed, I wanted to make a rough estimate for this summer:

I will probably be doing my own update sometime in the next few weeks as well, no worries

[shrink]

I hope you don’t mind Klomp, but with the trade deadline passed, I wanted to make a rough estimate for this summer:

I will probably be doing my own update sometime in the next few weeks as well, no worries

Great! Mine is pretty rough and I didn’t check it for errors, so we can replace mine with yours when you finish it. I just wanted to get a feel for it, and have it in a place where I could find it again.

[Klomp]

I really hate that Basketball Insiders seems to have an outdated cap sheet for the Wolves. They are usually the most accurate and my favorite visual representation, but updates which I remember being there early in the season disappeared along the way.

EDIT: Pincus left BI in September...that explains the issue.

[Klomp]

A couple important notes:
-As shrink has stated, Minnesota will assuredly operate as an above-the-cap team, meaning access only to cap exceptions.
-Room below the luxury tax is different from cap space.
-Options on Reid and Nowell bring an interesting dilemma for both sides. I could see either want to stick around or move on, it's hard to say.

2022-23 Salaries (Update: 3.10.22, 5 pm)
Karl-Anthony Towns - $33,833,400 / $36,016,200
D'Angelo Russell - $31,377,750
Malik Beasley - $15,558,035 / $16,524,106 (TO)
Patrick Beverley - $13,000,000
Anthony Edwards - $10,733,400 / $13,534,817 (TO) / $17,595,262 (QuO)
Jarred Vanderbilt - $4,374,000 / $4,698,000
Leandro Bolmaro - $2,471,160 / $2,588,400 (TO) / $4,392,515 (TO)
Jaden McDaniels - $2,161,440 / $3,901,399 (TO) / $5,813,085 (QuO)
Jordan McLaughlin - $2,160,000 / $2,320,000 (UnG)

Total Salaries: $115,669,185 (9 contracts)
BELOW Luxury Tax: $31,369,815

Pending free agents
Taurean Prince
Josh Okogie
Jake Layman
Jaylen Nowell ($1,930,681 team option)
Naz Reid - ($1,930,681 team option)

[Mattya]

A couple important notes:
-As shrink has stated, Minnesota will assuredly operate as an above-the-cap team, meaning access only to cap exceptions.
-Room below the luxury tax is different from cap space.
-Options on Reid and Nowell bring an interesting dilemma for both sides. I could see either want to stick around or move on, it's hard to say.

2022-23 Salaries (Update: 3.10.22, 5 pm)
Karl-Anthony Towns - $33,833,400 / $36,016,200
D'Angelo Russell - $31,377,750
Malik Beasley - $15,558,035 / $16,524,106 (TO)
Patrick Beverley - $13,000,000
Anthony Edwards - $10,733,400 / $13,534,817 (TO) / $17,595,262 (QuO)
Jarred Vanderbilt - $4,374,000 / $4,698,000
Leandro Bolmaro - $2,471,160 / $2,588,400 (TO) / $4,392,515 (TO)
Jaden McDaniels - $2,161,440 / $3,901,399 (TO) / $5,813,085 (QuO)
Jordan McLaughlin - $2,160,000 / $2,320,000 (UnG)

Total Salaries: $115,669,185 (9 contracts)
BELOW Luxury Tax: $31,369,815

Pending free agents
Taurean Prince
Josh Okogie
Jake Layman
Jaylen Nowell ($1,930,681 team option)
Naz Reid - ($1,930,681 team option)

So we would have a MLE? I can’t remember all the cap stuff anymore.

Also, Naz and Nowell seem like decent sign and trade options.

[shrink]

A couple important notes:
-As shrink has stated, Minnesota will assuredly operate as an above-the-cap team, meaning access only to cap exceptions.

…..

Total Salaries: $115,669,185 (9 contracts)
BELOW Luxury Tax: $31,369,815

Pending free agents
Taurean Prince
Josh Okogie
Jake Layman
Jaylen Nowell ($1,930,681 team option)
Naz Reid - ($1,930,681 team option)

As I may have mentioned elsewhere, if you can’t get your team well under the salary cap to generate raw cap space, the sweet spot for a team’s total payroll is a little under the lux. This gives you the most money for production, and matching salary for future trades, while still avoiding lux taxes. Unfortunately, MIN doesn’t have a whole lot of ways (or roster spots) to add this payroll, but I will mention a couple here:

MLE: The Mid-Level Exception is estimated to be about $10.1 mil next year. 2022 Free Agency has been picked kind of clean with teams offering lots of extensions last year, so there isn’t a lot of talent, and players aren’t lining up (yet?) to come to Minnesota. However, it might be in our best interest to use the money on a short deal, to get “some” help, and have a trade-matching piece. I believe we are also eligible for the Bi-Annual Exception, projected to be just under $4 mil.

TPE: We have a Traded Player Exception for Ricky Rubio at $4.75 mil, expiring 6/30/22 that we could use after the season is over.

Nowell and Reid: this was discussed in another thread so I will be brief. I would hope MIN would attempt to bring them back in a sign-and-extend, where we get next year cheap, and they get a couple years of guaranteed money starting in 2023.

Okogie will probably get better offers from other teams. I doubt we try to bring back Layman. But Prince has been an important piece for MIN the last six weeks, both on and off the floor. I think we could make a serious offer to keep him. It’s hard to play an 8th-10th man a huge salary, but because we are so far under the lux, you might see a big overpay if he agrees to an expiring deal, even north of $10 mil. This is what the Haws did with Gallinari when they were in the same situation (though Gallo had some partially guaranteed money the next year).

Prince, Reid and Nowell are certainly useful bench players, but they don’t address our biggest need - a big man partner for KAT. It is unlikely we find someone better than Vando in free agency, so I think we will try to add salary through these methods, and keep our options open to make a trade for a starting big man if/when one becomes available.

[Biff Cooper]

From @ShamsCharania on Twitter:

Sources: The NBA has informed teams of projected salary cap and tax level in 2022-23 — $121M and $147M, both are $2M higher than previous estimates.

[Klomp]

Made some updates to the OP. Might not be perfect, but it's close. Used Spotrac, which is estimating some numbers.

[eminence]

Do folks figure they'll use the BAE to try to land one of the bigger FAs still out there? Or stick to Vet Mins/whats left of the MLE?

[shrink]

Do folks figure they'll use the BAE to try to land one of the bigger FAs still out there? Or stick to Vet Mins/whats left of the MLE?

Welcome to Wolves fandom, eminence!

Minnesota has 12 players under roster, and will likely add 2 rotation players and 2 two-ways. One will be Josh Minott (either salaried or two way), so they will try to add two salaried players with their remaining $7.7 mil under the lux. I imagine they will use the BAE (or the $4.37 TPE) to add one of those players.

[Klomp]

Do folks figure they'll use the BAE to try to land one of the bigger FAs still out there? Or stick to Vet Mins/whats left of the MLE?

Welcome to Wolves fandom, eminence!

Minnesota has 12 players under roster, and will likely add 2 rotation players and 2 two-ways. One will be Josh Minott (either salaried or two way), so they will try to add two salaried players with their remaining $7.7 mil under the lux. I imagine they will use the BAE (or the $4.37 TPE) to add one of those players.

Reminder for full accuracy and clarity:

As with simultaneous trades, teams are allowed to acquire an extra $100,000 -- so a $1 million credit can be used to acquire $1.1 million in salaries.

So the Vanderbilt TPE of $4,374,000 can actually bring back $4,474,000.

[minimus]

I found this article and did not understand anything:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2022/08/05/why-nba-teams-should-already-be-planning-for-the-2025-offseason/?sh=2536c85827c4

Can someone explain how it will affect our situation?

For instance, I found out that Gobert contract is fixed, because it is not max contract, and even if cap raises in 2025-2026, he will get 43.8 and 46.7 in 2024-25, 2025-26.

However, Towns has signed supermax and his salary will be defined in June 2024, either 35% of cap or unlikely 30% if he is not in All-NBA 2023 and 2024). But after 2023-24 season will his salary be fixed after cap raise?

How about MCD, Edwards extensions next year? Will their salary be fixed after cap raise? I understand that if MCD gets not max extension his salary wont be scaled, but Edwards will for sure get max

What I am trying to understand is that fact that lets say 50 mil cap raise in 2025-26 will give us much needed cap space or it will be eaten by corresponding raises in Towns, Edwards and MCD extensions?

[shrink]

I think this is a little hard for most people to understand, so let me see if I can get to the crux.

Towns has signed an extension, but unlike most contracts that would contain a specific number, his would say “35% of the salary cap in 2024-25.” The new TV deal that would boost the BRI and hence the salary cap, hits in 2025-26. Unfortunately for Towns, the CBA limits raises to 8% each year. So while the first year of his extension will be 35% of the cap, the next year raise will be far less than the growth of the cap, so he will be well below 35%.

So to answer your question, yes, compared to teams that are signing players to new deals, we will likely have bargain contracts.

Math Example, with some rough numbers:

2024 Salary Cap comes in around $175 mil. Towns extension is $50 mil, 35% of the cap.

2025 the TV Deal hits. The NBA applies cap smoothing, say $50 mil each over the next two years, but the Salary Cap still rises to, say, $225 and $275. Star players getting new deals who are eligible for 35% of the 2025 and 2026 cap would get contracts starting at $78.75 and $96.25. Towns deal will only be $54 and $58.

[shrink]

How about MCD, Edwards extensions next year? Will their salary be fixed after cap raise? I understand that if MCD gets not max extension his salary wont be scaled, but Edwards will for sure get max

Edwards and McDaniels will both be extension-eligible in 2024, before the cap spike, so they are in the same boat as Towns. But like you mention, this mainly applies only to Edwards, since he will get a max based on a percentage of the current cap.

I expect both to sign extensions - guys on rookie scale want to get big time guaranteed money, in case of an injury. What you might see with other players though is that they may try to sign shorter deals that can end in 2025, so they can get bigger deals earlier, with so many teams with so much cap space under the new TV economics.

[Klomp]

shrink of course has all of the information you need to know.