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Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future

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Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#1 » by Rashodamus » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:57 am

Some people have started to worry about KAT being stuck in nba purgatory in his prime, ala KG, and a big reason they are using is Wiggins. So I wanted to dig into it and give my view on the situation, and opinion on why I dont think wolves fans shouldnt be so grim.

The first thing I will say is I am not apologizing for Wiggins, I see the same things everybody who criticizes him sees, the lack of urgency in most basketball related activities. But I also believe he was artificially bad last season, he regressed and I dont think it was just last of touches, he couldnt even hit a FT. Wiggins development arc is all out of whack after being somewhat normal his first two years, his WS/48 etc doubled from year 1 to year 2, VORP improved, BPM improved, TS% was up, FTr was up, PER was 16.5 with strong usage...he wasnt TRASH. For a second year super athlete project he was coming along fine. Then Thibs came and we got to see point Wiggins and iso trash offense gone wild, combined with a crushing of his happiness and confidence. So right out of the gates I think theres a lot more juice to squeeze out of him, I think a good coach immediately turns him into a much better player.

Then I started to think about the KG years, and what we added around him to really get us somewhere. I know its a different era, but Kobe/Shaq lakers and Duncan/Robinson spurs arent exactly pushovers. So I thought if Towns is KG in this scenario, who is Wiggins? Hes Sprewell, clearly. So I dug into Sprewells numbers that year and by god, the man shot .409/.331 with a 100 Ortg, he was a poor mans Wiggins. Now mind you he was the third wheel, but even Cassell wasnt some superstar guy, he was a vet and it was his first all star appearance, he was a borderline 20ppg with no defense. Now obviously KAT isnt at KGs level and cant just elevate a couple of no defense guys to best team in the league. But I think Wiggins can be better than Sprewell was for us, by quite a bit actually. And I think if we can play it smart we can add 2 Cassell caliber players along with them, one could even argue Teague is a poor mans version of that.

I also believe Wiggins/Towns are buddies, they want to play together. If you want a good culture, a good franchise, then you keep cores of good guys who like each other together and go through the lumps. KG had a turnstyle of mercenaries on MLE contracts brought in to add nothing, he had to cling to guys like troy hudson, he never had a robin since Marbury left. Towns has his Robin, hes quiet and doesnt seem like he has a problem with being Robin. Maybe Wiggins thinks hes batman, but I think he respects Towns enough and sees his ability enough to never make anything of it if he does.

So maybe thats overly positive, but I genuinely feel that way. Wiggins isnt a superstar, at his best he likely becomes a Derozan type all star. Combined with what Towns can be I think you are still one all star type from being something. But you have a few years to try to add that guy, and we have our future picks and potentially more coming. If we move Gorgui than in a couple years our cap situation turns into Towns/Wiggins and a bunch of rookie deals and we can make a push. But dont buy the nonsense that Wiggins dooms us, hes going to be significantly better this season with butler gone, and even better once Thibs is gone. In 3 years I think people will probably view his contract and Wiggins himself differently.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#2 » by MN7725 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:54 am

I posted months ago a search i did on BBREF.

http://bkref.com/tiny/pUz67

Parameters were -2.0 BPM, and negative VORP in first four seasons, which Wiggins has recorded each of his 1st four seasons
-5000 minutes played within those four seasons (to eliminate injury plagued players)
-players who BBREF classified as guards and forwards

Derozan is in the results

But I think the next best player on the list is either Rex Chapman or Ron Mercer

So NBA history says the leap that Derozan made, strongly negative on-court player for his team --->> becoming All-Star, strongly positive on-court player for his team, is extremely rare

Whatever flaws metrics like BPM and VORP have in showing a player's value, they do apply the same to every player

Pretty tough to be encouraged when seeing a list like that, Wiggins would be an outlier to have meaningful improvement like Derozan did. Possible but NBA history is against him
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#3 » by Zeitgeister » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:30 am

I think you should post this on the player comparison board if you want your opinions to be challenged.

I'm not even sure what you're saying about KAT. You say he's not KG yet you use KG's 2004 as a template for your team. Well, 2004 KG is one of the greatest season's of all-time and it's the best regular season we have on record from the past 20 years from a statistical metric standpoint.

Sprewell's efficiency needs to be viewed in the scope of 2004, when it was far more difficult to score efficienctly. League average TS% in 2004 was .516, in 2018, league average TS% was .556.

Wiggins has not shown meaningful improvement in the past 302 games. His first 25 games, were truly awful and since then he's been below average. Yes, a GREAT coach will probably get a bit more out of him but he'd either be coming off the bench or have to learn how to play off the ball. Giving Wiggins prominence on offense in a starting lineup is not how winning teams are made.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#4 » by Worm Guts » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:14 pm

Yeah, I don't think Wiggins was really ever statistically on schedule to be superstar. One of the reasons I wanted Butler is because if we wanted to keep Wiggins we needed someway to change his intensity level. The 2 ways I thought we could affect that were to surround him with players who have a high intensity level and to force him to play in higher intensity situations. That seems to have backfired. I've definitely reached the point where I think the better gamble would be to get rid of him and his contract.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#5 » by minimus » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:33 pm

KAT and Wiggins is our future. I think the only way to make it work is have a PG or offensive system that can feed, load both KAT and Wiggins in offense. We speak about defense as the biggest flaw, but I think if we can make both KAT and Wiggins happy in offense, it would be much easier to build adefensive identity.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#6 » by Foye » Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:49 pm

minimus wrote:KAT and Wiggins is our future. I think the only way to make it work is have a PG or offensive system that can feed, load both KAT and Wiggins in offense. We speak about defense as the biggest flaw, but I think if we can make both KAT and Wiggins happy in offense, it would be much easier to build adefensive identity.


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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#7 » by minimus » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:13 pm

Foye wrote:
minimus wrote:KAT and Wiggins is our future. I think the only way to make it work is have a PG or offensive system that can feed, load both KAT and Wiggins in offense. We speak about defense as the biggest flaw, but I think if we can make both KAT and Wiggins happy in offense, it would be much easier to build adefensive identity.


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I miss this guy.

P.S. I would be okay if we just re-sign Tyus and sign someone like Pat Beverly backuping him.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#8 » by Rashodamus » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:33 pm

Zeitgeister wrote:I think you should post this on the player comparison board if you want your opinions to be challenged.

I'm not even sure what you're saying about KAT. You say he's not KG yet you use KG's 2004 as a template for your team. Well, 2004 KG is one of the greatest season's of all-time and it's the best regular season we have on record from the past 20 years from a statistical metric standpoint.

Sprewell's efficiency needs to be viewed in the scope of 2004, when it was far more difficult to score efficienctly. League average TS% in 2004 was .516, in 2018, league average TS% was .556.

Wiggins has not shown meaningful improvement in the past 302 games. His first 25 games, were truly awful and since then he's been below average. Yes, a GREAT coach will probably get a bit more out of him but he'd either be coming off the bench or have to learn how to play off the ball. Giving Wiggins prominence on offense in a starting lineup is not how winning teams are made.


KGs offense from that season is about on par with KAT as a rookie, and well behind second year Towns. Towns is special, hes a centerpiece, hes just different than KG in how you can build around him. KG needed 2 bulk scorers because he wasnt really a bulk scorer, Towns only needs one other guy to help carry the shot load and one guy to take care of the KG intangibles/defense. Wiggins will be that second bulk scorer and I think he will be fine in that role with a good coach and system.

Even if you normalize it to todays standards and give Sprewell the benefit of the doubt that its purely due to league trends and not his abilities, it still doesnt differentiate the two.

I think the idea he hasnt improved is laughable and obviously biased, but from somebody who goes out of their way to bash Wiggins on every board its not a surprise. Much of his game has improved in small increments but the problem is the motor and focus still isnt driving them enough. You think a good coach just makes him a bench player or play him off the ball, I think that coach is a complete idiot just like Thibs.

Again, it doesnt matter, time will show one way or the other. Thibs will get canned and hopefully the eventual replacement is better than Mitchell/Thibs tier trash. Then maybe we will see normal progression from Wiggins rather than unprecedented regression in a uniquely toxic environment.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#9 » by Rashodamus » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:38 pm

Worm Guts wrote:Yeah, I don't think Wiggins was really ever statistically on schedule to be superstar. One of the reasons I wanted Butler is because if we wanted to keep Wiggins we needed someway to change his intensity level. The 2 ways I thought we could affect that were to surround him with players who have a high intensity level and to force him to play in higher intensity situations. That seems to have backfired. I've definitely reached the point where I think the better gamble would be to get rid of him and his contract.


We have all seen Cleveland and Toronto Wiggins, right?

What happens in those games? A good coach talks to Andrew and figures out a way to get that out of him more. Its not ability or skill, its focus and drive. But Wiggins doesnt appear to be a headcase or a problem which tells me you just need to figure out how to not FORCE him into trying to be that player, but make him want to for himself.

Going out there and bitching at him and telling him how soft he is will just make him curl up as weve seen. He needs a psychologist coach who support him and lead Wiggins to finding his motivation, not a taskmaster to scream "YOURE IN THE NBA NOW THIS IS A JOB!". Sorry if that hurts peoples feelings, omg he might not just react how I think he should because hes human! Sorry if you might have to cater to a persons individual personality to get the best out of them rather than just screaming "WHY CANT YOU WORK LIKE THE WINNER JIMMY?!?".
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#10 » by Rashodamus » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:41 pm

Foye wrote:
minimus wrote:KAT and Wiggins is our future. I think the only way to make it work is have a PG or offensive system that can feed, load both KAT and Wiggins in offense. We speak about defense as the biggest flaw, but I think if we can make both KAT and Wiggins happy in offense, it would be much easier to build adefensive identity.


Image


If Wiggins improved his outside shooting, then Yes, Rubio would be about the perfect 4th guy. It would take another all around stud type who was more of a shooter than Rubio to balance it all out though. Like a Rubio/Wiggins/Porter/Defender/Towns lineup could be pretty damn dangerous, especially if you had a good stretch 4 to really spread it out if needed.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#11 » by minimus » Fri Sep 28, 2018 5:09 pm

Rashodamus wrote:
Foye wrote:
minimus wrote:KAT and Wiggins is our future. I think the only way to make it work is have a PG or offensive system that can feed, load both KAT and Wiggins in offense. We speak about defense as the biggest flaw, but I think if we can make both KAT and Wiggins happy in offense, it would be much easier to build adefensive identity.


Image


If Wiggins improved his outside shooting, then Yes, Rubio would be about the perfect 4th guy. It would take another all around stud type who was more of a shooter than Rubio to balance it all out though. Like a Rubio/Wiggins/Porter/Defender/Towns lineup could be pretty damn dangerous, especially if you had a good stretch 4 to really spread it out if needed.
I really think that KAT-PJ Tucker/KBD-Wiggins-Gordon/Okogie-Tyus would be a good unit
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#12 » by Zeitgeister » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:03 pm

Rashodamus wrote:
Zeitgeister wrote:I think you should post this on the player comparison board if you want your opinions to be challenged.

I'm not even sure what you're saying about KAT. You say he's not KG yet you use KG's 2004 as a template for your team. Well, 2004 KG is one of the greatest season's of all-time and it's the best regular season we have on record from the past 20 years from a statistical metric standpoint.

Sprewell's efficiency needs to be viewed in the scope of 2004, when it was far more difficult to score efficienctly. League average TS% in 2004 was .516, in 2018, league average TS% was .556.

Wiggins has not shown meaningful improvement in the past 302 games. His first 25 games, were truly awful and since then he's been below average. Yes, a GREAT coach will probably get a bit more out of him but he'd either be coming off the bench or have to learn how to play off the ball. Giving Wiggins prominence on offense in a starting lineup is not how winning teams are made.


KGs offense from that season is about on par with KAT as a rookie, and well behind second year Towns. Towns is special, hes a centerpiece, hes just different than KG in how you can build around him. KG needed 2 bulk scorers because he wasnt really a bulk scorer, Towns only needs one other guy to help carry the shot load and one guy to take care of the KG intangibles/defense. Wiggins will be that second bulk scorer and I think he will be fine in that role with a good coach and system.

Even if you normalize it to todays standards and give Sprewell the benefit of the doubt that its purely due to league trends and not his abilities, it still doesnt differentiate the two.

I think the idea he hasnt improved is laughable and obviously biased, but from somebody who goes out of their way to bash Wiggins on every board its not a surprise. Much of his game has improved in small increments but the problem is the motor and focus still isnt driving them enough. You think a good coach just makes him a bench player or play him off the ball, I think that coach is a complete idiot just like Thibs.

Again, it doesnt matter, time will show one way or the other. Thibs will get canned and hopefully the eventual replacement is better than Mitchell/Thibs tier trash. Then maybe we will see normal progression from Wiggins rather than unprecedented regression in a uniquely toxic environment.


Do you realize that in 2004, KG was the 3rd leading scorer in the entire NBA, his efficiency was well above average and he was averaging more than double the assists that Towns does? Not to mention KG is so far beyond KAT as a screen setter it's not even close. KG at that time was without question making better decisions. The impact (plus/minus) data agrees that KG was arguably the best offensive player in the NBA in 2004, along with arguably being the best defensive player in the NBA.

So in no way should it be assumed KAT was equal in his rookie season, he wasn't close. He wasn't close last year either. KG was leading multiple teams that were top 5-6 in offensive efficiency, the proof was in the pudding, KG was a great offensive player. Just that when you count the totality of his prime, it's not as high as the absolute greatest offensive players like Shaq, Kobe, Dirk, Nash, that's about it from his era.

So KAT will probably surpass KG in offense when he gets towards his prime, he's not there yet, but he's several deviations away from KG defensively, highly unlikely he ever matches or excedes KG.

Just read this from RealGM's own, Elgee (Ben Taylor) who used to post a lot on the Player Comparison board, the best basketball discussion on the internet. http://www.backpicks.com/2018/03/19/backpicks-goat-8-kevin-garnett/ There are several there who can provide a lot of detail on KG, I realize you watched KG and I'm sure you feel very confident in your ability to determine how good KG was but the reality seems to be that a lot of people underrate KG because for the most part he wasn't a GREAT scorer and because he didn't win much in Minnesota.

As to Wiggins, I bash him because he's been terrible and it's kind of funny how people often still can't see it. As to this "unprecedented regression", it's funny because I predicted most of it. I said to hold off on signing him because he'd have to adjust to being a third option, he's never shown the ability to do other things than score, and his PPG would decrease. I didn't expect the free throw shooting to drop but this is not something that has no precedent in the NBA. LeBron James shot .675 from the free throw line in 2017 even though he's a career .739 FT shooter. Tim Duncan was a career .700 FT shooter but he shot .599 his 7th season in his career. That's just a couple examples off the top of my head.

Wiggins has gained the ability to occasionally finish with a finger roll, and sometimes uses a floater now, that's about the extent of his improvements since coming into the NBA. He's not a smart player, and he has a low motor, that combination is typically a death knell for someone's potential to be a star, but we will see I suppose.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#13 » by wolfen » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:25 pm

I think Wigs would take off if we end up getting a Josh Richardson type. Good defender, hustles, game is growing offensively, and could surely accept 2nd fiddle status behind Wiggins on the opposite wing. The year before last I saw Wigs start to develop the drive and kick game, that stagnated last year with Jimmy. Wigs is best with the ball in his hands and with Jrich opposite him, and no Jimmy, I think he'd thrive.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#14 » by KGdaBom » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:59 pm

It's amazing how long Wolves fans hold onto the hope that one day he will bust out. I'm holding on to that hope, but honestly I don't think it will ever happen.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#15 » by whatuptennessee » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:55 pm

KGdaBom wrote:It's amazing how long Wolves fans hold onto the hope that one day he will bust out. I'm holding on to that hope, but honestly I don't think it will ever happen.


As a Wolves’ fan, I have no choice but holding onto the hope or should I say wishful thinking that one day he’ll be a player we all had hoped for. Most of us probably know it’s a long shot but what choices do we have? Hope is all we have. “hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”


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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#16 » by KGdaBom » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:58 pm

whatuptennessee wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:It's amazing how long Wolves fans hold onto the hope that one day he will bust out. I'm holding on to that hope, but honestly I don't think it will ever happen.


As a Wolves’ fan, I have no choice but holding onto the hope or should I say wishful thinking that one day he’ll be a player we all had hoped for. Most of us probably know it’s a long shot but what choices do we have? Hope is all we have. “hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”


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What Movie, Book or Play is that from?
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#17 » by whatuptennessee » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:05 pm

KGdaBom wrote:
whatuptennessee wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:It's amazing how long Wolves fans hold onto the hope that one day he will bust out. I'm holding on to that hope, but honestly I don't think it will ever happen.


As a Wolves’ fan, I have no choice but holding onto the hope or should I say wishful thinking that one day he’ll be a player we all had hoped for. Most of us probably know it’s a long shot but what choices do we have? Hope is all we have. “hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”


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What Movie, Book or Play is that from?


The Shawshank Redemption. It’s in the letter Andy wrote to Red.


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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#18 » by Loyal[]Wolf » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:06 pm

It seems like I'm one of few Wolves fans that actually likes Wigs. I really think he will have a great year; you can quote me if I'm wrong by the All-Star break. But, I'm sure as Wolves fans, everyone hopes I'm right.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#19 » by HitmanCapone » Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:38 am

Loyal[]Wolf wrote:It seems like I'm one of few Wolves fans that actually likes Wigs. I really think he will have a great year; you can quote me if I'm wrong by the All-Star break. But, I'm sure as Wolves fans, everyone hopes I'm right.

I'm 100% team Wiggins
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Re: Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future 

Post#20 » by wolves_89 » Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:29 am

I think there is still a decent chance that Wiggins can take a step forward and be an all-star level player. For me it all comes down to on-court effort on both ends of the court. On offense he needs to stop settling for long 2s and drive to basket more frequently. Defensively, he can't stand around and he has to utilize his athletic ability to be more disruptive (tipping balls, apply pressure on-ball, be more aggressive on help defense, ...).

I'd like to see Thibs reduce the length of each on-court stretch. Tell him to go all out for 4-6 minutes and then give him a break. I'd rather see 30-32 minutes of higher effort Wiggins than 36-38 minutes of what we've seen throughout his career.

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