Lottery Odds and Updates

Jedzz · Post #41 » by **Jedzz** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:04 am

phonzadellika wrote:
I think this is the year we get the winning lottery ticket and move up to the top spot. Zion here we come.

I don't count the KAT draft; IIRC that year we could only move down.

New Orleans. They are losing Davis. They will start force feeding that team again.

Jedzz · Post #42 » by **Jedzz** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:00 am

Neeva wrote:Drose has been responsible for like 4-5 wins where he goes off, without those, the wolves have the 6th pick lol

Who really cares? 6 to 13. If we had 6 we would just draft a Rubio or Flynn type and a Stephen Curry would go pick 7. Even if we had both picks 5 and 6, it would still happen. It has happened!

It's all about being able to pick the right player from those available.

Pick 9 in 2013, drafted Burke traded for 14 and 21 Bazz/Dieng. Right after pick9 went guys like McCollum, Olynyk, Giannis. We had pick 26 that was traded to GS/OKC. Guess who went pick 27? Rudy Gobert.

In 2016...#5 Kriss Dunn. Buddy Heid/Jamal Murray go 6 and 7. Malik Beasley went 19 and barely plays in Denver and he can pretty much out shoot anyone we have.

In 2017...Let's not even talk about the #7 and 15th picks and LaVine who are no longer here. But Mitchell goes 13th this draft.Go all the way down to 51st pick for Monte Morris who proves he shoots well in this league.

In 2018...maybe we finally have proof of better drafting with signs from Okogie (20) and KBD (48th) already.

Just make another good choice where ever Wolves pick at.

Jedzz · Post #43 » by **Jedzz** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:05 am

We need an update!

Killboard · Post #44 » by **Killboard** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:19 pm

Neeva wrote:Drose has been responsible for like 4-5 wins where he goes off, without those, the wolves have the 6th pick lol

One of the reason why we should have been sellers at the trade dead line.
But I think you are overrating Rose. While he is good attacking switches and has made some important buckets (which is his nba skill) he also has -3.0 DBPM which is by far the worse of the rotation players (only close to Teague -2.5), sports the worst DRTG among the rotation, has -3.17 DRPM (94th ranked PG) and -1.70 RPM (51th among PG). So for each hard shot he makes, he conceeds an easy one in the other side of the court.

Post #45 » by **Calinks** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:53 pm

I just hope that somehow some way we take a leap next season. The Nuggets fought hard to make the playoffs last season, failed and this season they may be the top seed. We aren't trending up like they did but it would be great if we could build off of this and be much stronger next season. Again I think if we get a good active front office in place, we could be. KAT, Rocco, Saric, KBD, Okogie, could be a good enough foundation to work with. Gonna need some master sculptors to get the right pieces though. Like they said in the broadcast last game, if we just had a .500 road record with out home record we would be in. That's feasible to do next season if we have direction and health.

Grubie024 · Post #46 » by **Grubie024** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:00 pm

It's about time we get lucky. Not once have we moved up from projected slot. The odds of that have to be ridiculously low, especially considering how many times we've been in the lottery.

Neeva · Post #47 » by **Neeva** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:00 pm

The thing with drose he is not the future core , he’s not getting us in the playoffs this year he’s litterally just making our lotto pick worse.

Killboard wrote:
Neeva wrote:Drose has been responsible for like 4-5 wins where he goes off, without those, the wolves have the 6th pick lol

One of the reason why we should have been sellers at the trade dead line.
But I think you are overrating Rose. While he is good attacking switches and has made some important buckets (which is his nba skill) he also has -3.0 DBPM which is by far the worse of the rotation players (only close to Teague -2.5), sports the worst DRTG among the rotation, has -3.17 DRPM (94th ranked PG) and -1.70 RPM (51th among PG). So for each hard shot he makes, he conceeds an easy one in the other side of the court.

shrink · Post #48 » by **shrink** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 3:52 pm

Jedzz wrote:We need an update!

Since we’re tracking this so far out, there are a lot of teams to watch, so it makes daily updates quite a bit of work. As the possibilities narrow, I will update this more frequently. However, I will try to update the morning after every Timberwolves game, so there will be a new one tomorrow morning after the HOU game.

Also, since we’ve had a few days off, I’ll do one now.

After Last Night’s Games

1. 13-56. NYK
2. 17-54. PHX
3. 17-53. CLE
4. 19-51. CHI
5. 24-46. ATL
6. 28-42. MEM
7. 28-41. DAL
8. 30-42. NOP
9. 30-40. WAS
10 31-38. LAL
11 31-37. CHA
12 32-38. ORL
13 32-37 MIN
14 33-35. SAC

Same odds, but CHA and ORL have won games, and one game or less separates four teams from the 10 spot.

1.0%. 1st pick
1.1%. 2nd pick
1.2%. 3rd pick
1.4%. 4th pick
92.9% 13th pick
2.3% 14th pick

shrink · Post #49 » by **shrink** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:11 am

ORL won again, but unfortunately, LeBron failed on a last second shot. The Wolves moved ahead of the Magic with the loss to HOU

After Last Night’s Games

1. 14-56. NYK
2. 17-54. PHX
3. 17-53. CLE
4. 19-52. CHI
5. 24-47. ATL
6. 28-42. MEM
7. 28-41. DAL
8. 30-42. NOP
9. 30-40. WAS
10 31-39. LAL
11 31-38. CHA
12 32-38 MIN
13 33-38. ORL
14 34-35. SAC

We moved ahead of ORL tonight.

1.5%. 1st pick
1.7%. 2nd pick
1.9%. 3rd pick
2.1%. 4th pick
86.1% 12th pick
6.7% 13th pick
0.1% 14th pick

mplsfonz23 · Post #50 » by **mplsfonz23** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:45 pm

Maybe it's just me, but I like seeing LBJ fail. (Even if it does cost us one spot.)

NebWolvesFan · Post #51 » by **NebWolvesFan** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:44 pm

I'm predicting Minnesota goes into the lottery with eighth-best odds. Minnesota wins three more games and finishing with a worse record than Lakers, Charlotte and Washington.

Post #52 » by **Calinks** » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:32 pm

Just a little optimism

Clink Capeal Pick 25
Gary Harris Pick 19
Jusuf Nurkic Pick 16
Caris Levert Pick 20
Pascal Siakam Pick 27
Donovan Mitchell Pick 13
Kyle Kuzma Pick 27
Devin Booker Pick 13
Dario Saric Pick 12
Zach Lavine Pick 13
Nikola Jokic Pick 41

Its not common but you can definitely draft an impact player after pick 10. There have even been superstars like Greek Freak and Kawhi Leonard.

I say we roll the dice hard on a wing and pray we land. We also have a chance of KBD or Okogie having a break out summer.

shrink · Post #53 » by **shrink** » Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:38 pm

MIN loses

After Last Night’s Games

1. 14-57. NYK
2. 17-55. PHX
3. 18-53. CLE
4. 20-52. CHI
5. 24-48. ATL
6. 28-42. MEM
7. 28-42. DAL
8. 30-41. WAS
9. 31-42. NOP
10 31-40. LAL
11 31-39. CHA
12 32-39 MIN
13 33-38. ORL
14 34-36. SAC

Virtually every lottery team lost since the last update. We’re within two games of the 8th slot.

1.5%. 1st pick
1.7%. 2nd pick
1.9%. 3rd pick
2.1%. 4th pick
86.1% 12th pick
6.7% 13th pick
0.1% 14th pick

shrink · Post #54 » by **shrink** » Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:52 pm

At this point of the season, one thing to watch is when two tanking teams are scheduled to face each other. One of them has to lose, like last night, when ORL beat NOP. These are opportunities for us to make up ground, particularly since we face primarily contenders for our last 11 games.

Tonight though, MIN (32-39) is at CHA (31-39). Losing this game would move us in front of them in lottery odds.

shrink · Post #55 » by **shrink** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:52 am

MIN loses a critical game to CHA which slides them in front of the Hornets in the tank race.

After Last Night’s Games

1. 14-58. NYK
2. 17-56. PHX
3. 19-53. CLE
4. 21-52. CHI
5. 25-48. ATL
6. 28-44. DAL
7. 29-42. MEM
8. 30-43. WAS
9. 31-43. NOP
10 31-40. LAL
11 32-40. MIN
12 32-39. CHA
13 34-38. ORL
14 35-36. SAC

2.0%. 1st pick
2.2%. 2nd pick
2.4%. 3rd pick
2.8%. 4th pick
77.6% 11th pick
12.6% 12th pick
0.4%. 13th pick
0.0%. 14th pick

Foye · Post #56 » by **Foye** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:58 am

Losing against Memphis is very important. Hopefully, tank commander Wiggins shows up by hitting on 2 of 8 FTs

Foye · Post #57 » by **Foye** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 11:03 am

Calinks wrote:Just a little optimism

Clink Capeal Pick 25
Gary Harris Pick 19
Jusuf Nurkic Pick 16
Caris Levert Pick 20
Pascal Siakam Pick 27
Donovan Mitchell Pick 13
Kyle Kuzma Pick 27
Devin Booker Pick 13
Dario Saric Pick 12
Zach Lavine Pick 13
Nikola Jokic Pick 41

Its not common but you can definitely draft an impact player after pick 10. There have even been superstars like Greek Freak and Kawhi Leonard.

I say we roll the dice hard on a wing and pray we land. We also have a chance of KBD or Okogie having a break out summer.

Even if KBD breaks out. The absolute best case scenario I see him being is Ryan Gomes.
Okogie will be a good defensive player with a lot of hustle for sure. Hopefully, he'll develop more of an offensive game.

But we certainly need more help around Towns. That ain't enough.

shrink · Post #58 » by **shrink** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:13 pm

Ten Games Remaining

@MEM, vsLAC, vsGSW, vsPHI, vsPOR, @DAL, vsMIA, vsOKC, vsTOR, @DEN

Only two vs tanking teams, and they are both away games. A loss in MEM would put us within 1.5 games of them.

mplsfonz23 · Post #59 » by **mplsfonz23** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:52 pm

Does rooting for us to lose feel....ODD?

Being bad is one thing, but wanting to be bad feels wrong.
Last time I had this feeling, we drafted Towns.

shrink · Post #60 » by **shrink** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:58 pm

mplsfonz23 wrote:Does rooting for us to lose feel....ODD?

Being bad is one thing, but wanting to be bad feels wrong.
Last time I had this feeling, we drafted Towns.

Yes, I can’t even watch games now. I have found that no matter how rational it is to root for them to lose, I just don’t have it in me - I want to see all the players be successful.

We need to get back into playoff-level quality, so every game, I can cheer on the Wolves. Hopefully next year, with less injuries.