**The Official Gersson Rosas Thread**

[Dewey]

Not bringing back Saunders is unlikely IMO - especially, until Gersson has a chance to really get a feel for this team ... then if he thinks he needs to make a change, he will. Clearly they are both tuned in on analytics, so the communication and ways of working are likely to be in sync early on for sure. You just can't go replacing coaches and manufacturing your own internal instability at this stage... makes no sense. I think Gerssons challenges are more about the team than it is about the coach.

[KGdaBom]

All started with this tweet:

Read on Twitter

I wonder how much we will gain if we just replace Wiggins midrange game with other our guys who shoot 3s. I had an hour to play with stats and here are some very rough numbers.

Capela-Tucker-Gordon-Harden-CP3 unit generates 36 points of 3pointers, they get 1,1points per every 3pta.

KAT-Saric-RoCo-Reynolds-Tyus-Okogie unit generates 28 points of 3pointers, they would get 1,13 points per every 3pta. I assumed that Okogie plays per 30 mpg, Reynolds plays 18mpg, Saric plays 36mpg. Tyus, Okogie numbers are from games when they started.

KAT-Saric-RoCo-Reynolds-Tyus-KBD unit generates 29 points of 3pointers, they would get 1,17 points per every 3pta. I assumed that KBD plays per 30 mpg, Reynolds plays 18mpg. Tyus, KBD numbers are from games when they started.

Wiggins gives us 1,4pts on 2,2 long midrange attempts. If we replace these 2,2 midrange attempts with 3pt attempts with average % of alternative units we will get additional 1,1-1,2ppg. Thats not enough to be on the same level as HOU as they lead league by big margin, but it will be enough to be an average 3pt shooting team in terms of volume.

Saying this it is clear for me that we won’t be able to build our identity around volume 3pt shooting even with RoCo and Saric shooting 3s as full-time starters we are still lacking shooter in backcourt, since Tyus-Teague-Okogie are bad/unwilling shooters. Unless we trade for Beal, there are no other dynamic scorers who can change our team 3pt shooting.

What can be our identity?

We are :
Top4 in taking care of the ball, with BOS, SAS.
Top7 in steals.
Top10 in points off TO
Top3 in 2nd chance points
Top10 in opponents points off TO

Bottom 3 in defending 3pt % wise
Bottom 8 in defending FG %wise
Bottom 4 in opponent assists
Bottom 2 in opponent 2nd chance points
Bottom 4 in defensive rebounds %

Not surprisingly we are average in defending the paint and midrange, since we give still try to pack the paint and give up many open 3s.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

So if Rosas is here to change situation he will certainly start with two things:
RoCo health and Wiggins situation. Build our identity around execution in offence since we don’t have much creative ball handlers we have to feed KAT as much as possible, let him be main point of offense, control the the pace, don’t turnover. See Embiid, Jokic examples. Healthy RoCo is key to at least average defense on perimeter. I think Rosas needs to be clear with Wiggins about his role and make him accountable. Numbers wise I think we need get rid of his contract for expiring in order to be able to operate on FA market. In terms of actual production we can substitute his inefficient games with better decision making and overall effort level from other players. If we build this team this way, I would do everything to get Jrue Holiday. He is 1st team defense, and he has 3yrs of contract(last year is player option). RoCo-Holiday that is solid foundation for playoff level defense.

P.S. My logic is surely flawed but I hope that it makes clear my reasoning.

Great post Minimus. Just one thing. Rosas will not be the coach. It will be on the coach to impart the concepts to the players.

[minimus]

Great post Minimus. Just one thing. Rosas will not be the coach. It will be on the coach to impart the concepts to the players.

I guess that different part of this process should be done by different people. For instance, coach can ask for player loyalty and trust, and GM can can trade same player next day. Or salary negotiation, or role in team based on long term view and contract situation.

[Calinks]

https://youtu.be/beVGZK2ZRvE?t=400

[Calinks]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

That means they don't fear us. They will, they will.

[Calinks]

You know, Wiggins is actually not too bad with the corner three's. I don't think he will ever be a good but Rosas can maybe find a way to maximize his shot selection. If Wiggins developed into a corner three sharpshooter, he could wind up being an asset to this team. Would be fantastic if we could find a functioning role for him.

[theGreatRC]

https://youtu.be/beVGZK2ZRvE?t=400

Can you ban yourself for posting this

[Jedzz]

https://youtu.be/beVGZK2ZRvE?t=400

https://youtu.be/t97sy2ryqSQ?t=75

[theGreatRC]

You know, Wiggins is actually not too bad with the corner three's. I don't think he will ever be a good but Rosas can maybe find a way to maximize his shot selection. If Wiggins developed into a corner three sharpshooter, he could wind up being an asset to this team. Would be fantastic if we could find a functioning role for him.

5 years of us watching Wiggs, i'd say his biggest strengths are being a point forward type of player.

Take the ball out of his hands and he falls asleep. Get him going early & we need more two man game with KAT & Wiggs.

It'll be hard to move him, i'd rather keep him than take on trash with shorter contracts, so his strengths are him having pretty high usage IMO.

KAT always seemed like he's cool with deferring, but what I want from Wiggs is almost the same thing I want from KAT. I want KAT in a Jokic type role which means his usage would have to be high as well.

We either need the ball in their hands the majority of the time or a PG that sets them up for easy buckets.

[Jedzz]

All started with this tweet:

Read on Twitter

I wonder how much we will gain if we just replace Wiggins midrange game with other our guys who shoot 3s. I had an hour to play with stats and here are some very rough numbers.

...

Great post Minimus. Just one thing. Rosas will not be the coach. It will be on the coach to impart the concepts to the players.

This is why I suggested Magee for the second round pick, or anyone that can be trusted to shoot a 3 at a high clip. Of course defense can always help. But the one thing this team is always lacking is someone that can hit the 3 and space the floor. Someone that gives your team the confidence to shoot more 3s.

We see it a couple times every season. one guy gets hot and then the whole team gets warmed up and confident and starts launching them. But it has been so rare here that by now someone should be keeping a journal on everything each player eats, their sleeping habits by the day, the practice routines per day. So that when it happens they can check the logs and try to repeat all those things from that day and attempt to recreate it. It's so rare that it's worth that kind of effort to figure it out. Or...you could just demand they finally draft a real shooter. It would make a massive difference for this team even if he only played 10 minutes. Take 10 minutes away from Wiggins and give it to someone who can really shoot.

[Calinks]

https://youtu.be/beVGZK2ZRvE?t=400

https://youtu.be/t97sy2ryqSQ?t=75

Babylon 5 one of my favorite shows! My man!

[Killboard]

All started with this tweet:

Read on Twitter

So if Rosas is here to change situation he will certainly start with two things:
RoCo health and Wiggins situation. Build our identity around execution in offence since we don’t have much creative ball handlers we have to feed KAT as much as possible, let him be main point of offense, control the the pace, don’t turnover. See Embiid, Jokic examples. Healthy RoCo is key to at least average defense on perimeter. I think Rosas needs to be clear with Wiggins about his role and make him accountable. Numbers wise I think we need get rid of his contract for expiring in order to be able to operate on FA market. In terms of actual production we can substitute his inefficient games with better decision making and overall effort level from other players. If we build this team this way, I would do everything to get Jrue Holiday. He is 1st team defense, and he has 3yrs of contract(last year is player option). RoCo-Holiday that is solid foundation for playoff level defense.

P.S. My logic is surely flawed but I hope that it makes clear my reasoning.

Rockets shot chart ridiculous (in a good sense) but attainable.
I used bkref shooting distance to add

Mid range shots (10-16 feet) + long 2's (16 feet to 3pt line) multiplied by season 2PT Attemps. Then used minutes to weight his frequency:

Rose 206 attemps (1 each 6.7 minutes)
Dieng 150 attemps (1 each 6.8 minutes)
Wiggins 260 attemps (1 each 9.7 minutes)
Bayless 40 attemps (1 each 16.1 minutes)
Jones 90 attemps (1 each 17.2 minutes)
KAT 138 attemps (1 each 18.4 minutes)
Teague 65 attemps (1 each 19.2 minutes)
Gibson 71 attemps (1 each 23.6 minutes)
KBD 14 attemps (1 each 34.5 minutes)
Saric 42 attemps (1 each 38.1 minutes)
Okogie 42 attemps (1 each 41.6 minutes)
Roco 11 attemps (1 each 68.99 minutes)
Tolliver 1.7 attemps (1 each 628 minutes)

Roco and Tolliver is what you want for most of your role players. Rose and Wiggins will make a analytic FO to puke.

Now, mid range and long twos arent always bad shots. They still not as good as 3 pointers on points per shot on general, but more importantly what really hurt is when the shot is contested and off the dribble. If you can erase those and take the average spot up 3 the difference would be tremendous.


Adding all those mid range+long 2's the wolves took 1191 attemps over the season
Thats equivalent to 14.5 attemps per game. If all of them would have been 3's, that would make the wolves jump from the 26th position in 3PA (28.7 per game) to the 2nd spot (43.5 per game), above the Bucks (38.2) and only behind the Rockets (45.4).

What is really overlooked is that the wolves finished 19th in 3PT% (.351), and just .008 behind the 8th spot (Portland, .358), which makes me think the wolves already had the shooters to be above average. For reference the Rockets 3P% was .356 and the Bucks 3PT% was .353, virtually the same than the wolves.




I know they is just theory, and if the long 2 is open and on rythm you have to take it, but the point is replace the bad shots with above average shots, and later the players that seems not to stick with the gameplan.

[Calinks]

Looking like there is a chance Joerger doesn't get a new job yet. Haven't heard about teams interviewing him. Maybe he takes the year off. If things don't go well this season with Ryan maybe we will still get a shot to grab Dave, Rosas may give him a look.

[TheDominator273]

Looking like there is a chance Joerger doesn't get a new job yet. Haven't heard about teams interviewing him. Maybe he takes the year off. If things don't go well this season with Ryan maybe we will still get a shot to grab Dave, Rosas may give him a look.

According to Kings fans Joerger is like a young Thibs in his inability to deviate from his set rotations and game planning and they were by and large not upset that he was canned. Most of the calling the Kings dumb was done from outsiders who just looked at their record from this year.

[Nick K]

Looking like there is a chance Joerger doesn't get a new job yet. Haven't heard about teams interviewing him. Maybe he takes the year off. If things don't go well this season with Ryan maybe we will still get a shot to grab Dave, Rosas may give him a look.

According to Kings fans Joerger is like a young Thibs in his inability to deviate from his set rotations and game planning and they were by and large not upset that he was canned. Most of the calling the Kings dumb was done from outsiders who just looked at their record from this year.

Yep. I'm totally off the Joerger bandwagon. Ryan will do just fine. The key will be his assistants. He has to bring in a defense guru to handle that side of things. Then we need a top notch shooting coach. Maybe we need 2 top notch shooting coaches.

[Klomp]

If new management can turn the Minnesota Twins into a lineup full of sluggers, Rosas can turn the Timberwolves into a 3-point shooting team

[Nick K]

https://youtu.be/beVGZK2ZRvE?t=400

You're killing me Calinks!

Seeing that mug again brings up bad memories.

[Nick K]

If new management can turn the Minnesota Twins into a lineup full of sluggers, Rosas can turn the Timberwolves into a 3-point shooting team

Miracles can happen. I loved that new Twins management the day they were hired. Same for Rosas.

[Calinks]

So the Twins are good this season?

[Domejandro]

One of Glen Taylor's worst attributes is being overly trusting and hands-off with those he hires. This fundamental belief of the opposite has always confused me with fellow Timberwolves fans