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The Jaylen Nowell Thread

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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#61 » by Jedzz » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:32 pm

Killboard wrote:
Jedzz wrote:Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.


Open mind? Sure, why not.

Likely? Not, not at all. Both are young sophmores that played in small schools. One was the offensive hub of his team, that made the 1st final four appearance. Posted better per36 stats in every single category, it bigger and longer, had a higher usage, more impact for his team and better 3pt and FT ratios. The other one is a more efficient shooter and some months younger.

Based on their college careers, both start from different points. One was saw for many draft experts as a top3 talent, the other was passed on by 30 teams, and 12 teams passed on him twice. That alone means that Culver will have a longer leash going into the league. Nowell will have to work for a roster spot, then push his way into the rotation and prove to be playable sooner than later.


I'm not sure which person you were talking about with better 3PT and FT ratios. I'm reading that you are open to it, but still coming at this building off preconceived notions somehow based on draft "experts". I don't give them that much clout. If we could, no one would ever have busts and many more early FRPs would work out better. I think way too many decisions after the draft are ruled by this unverified process, corrupted process. Teams purposely not talking about their second choice players happens all the time as they hope they go unnoticed and hope they drop right out of the draft entirely. The really great FO teams are finding real players back here or undrafted.

You said "every single category" per 36. I'm not seeing that, I believe that is overstating things. According to sports-ref I'm seeing per 40 that Nowell beats Culver in 3pt %, FG%, FT%, and he's just short of Culver in boards, assists, steals, etc. Higher than Culver in TS%, They trade a small difference in Off/Def ratings. Culver being more defensive, Nowell being more offensive, neither have bad defensive numbers. In size, Culver lists at 6-5 and under 200. While Nowell is 6-4 and over 200. So while you are correct that he edges Nowell in a number of categories by a little, that does not include shooting at all and overall it's much closer than the way you put it. Just stating that Nowell is only a more efficient shooter does not, to me, cover this.

I think playing alongside someone like the Philly #20 pick allowed Nowell to focus on offensive side. If Culver had played with Thybulle, do Culvers steals blocks numbers drop just enough to match Nowell's? I think so. The assists are too close and both are low enough that I'm not claiming either of them as playmakers for others, but that hasn't stopped people from claiming Culver is one at 4.6 assists or less per 40 (2.7 as a freshman).

So describing him as an "offensive hub" for his team has more to say about his surrounding teammates than him. He wasn't hitting double digit assists creating for others as offensive hub seems to describe. Do you see where I'm reading preconceived notions into these descriptions? Just trying to say where I'm coming from, not trying to argue. It's why I asked if people can truly be open to the idea of this possibility. I think your posts on this subject have otherwise been quite informative.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#62 » by Killboard » Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:39 pm

Worm Guts wrote:
Killboard wrote:
mplsfonz23 wrote:I get what Jezz is saying.

His time with the Wolves is already starting out rocky. If a year from now he doesn't show us much, it going to be forgotten, and we both move on. But, if he turns out to be a player in our rotation, he may remember the treatment and the one year deal and bolt for someone who believe he's worth a 4 year investment. I mean, where is the harm in giving him a second year? Why waste a second round pick on the guy then lowball him?

I have a feeling this bites us in the ass. (At some point)


I don't think he issue is the 2nd guaranteed year, but the 4 years of control the Wolves would have. I say this because a 2nd guaranteed deal only takes 600k of cap space, since a empty roster charge is 900k. It's likely the wolves offered 2+2 and the total amount of money doesn't convince Nowell.


Well, I think it's both, and I think the premise here is that the Wolves didn't offer him the 2nd year guaranteed. Ultimately it shouldn't matter though, since I believe he is a RFA after his first contract. If we want him, he's probably under our control for 5,6,7 seasons and by that time this contract probably won't be a consideration into his decision.


It was reported Wolves offered a 1+3 like Naz got, and Nowell refused. He is reportedly looking a 2+1 like KBD got.
The middle term is the 2+2, that adds a 2nd guaranteed year but also one more year of control for the Wolves, but is just my assumption.

If the Wolves offered that (which they should, since a minimum contract isnt really a cap hit, and our flexiblity wont be much for next year in any case) and Nowell doesn't agree, it seems to point that Nowell wants more total money for the 4 years of control the Wolves would have, and could prefer play this year for the tender, then hit FA next season, in similar fashion to what McDaniels did back then.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#63 » by KGdaBom » Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:36 pm

Jedzz wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:
Jedzz wrote:Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

I would guess that all of us see it as possible. I would also guess that most of us think it's unlikely. I don't know how good he is. I never heard of him until after we drafted him. Hopefully he is great. Whether we are low balling him and treating him unfair with our contract offer I don't know. Maybe Rosas is a penny pinching a$$hole. Maybe Nowell is too demanding. He was a mid second round draft pick. Unless we were geniuses making that pick odds are he will never amount to anything in the NBA. I'm hopeful that we get him signed and he proves any and all doubters wrong.
Nice clip. He looks good in highlights. However, they did repeat a couple of the same plays multiple times.


It's not a highlights from a season clip. It's just one game, of which there are a number of games available if you go look. Might give you a slightly better idea about him than just allowing the media and draft process force feed how you feel about these players. You default to a preconceived notion of "unlikely". You specifically might be a good example of someone that puts a lot of stock into where someone was drafted, ruling basically all future thoughts on these players. You aren't alone in that. In a later post, I showed how his teammate who is significantly less effective offensively was drafted #20 overall. Same team, same competition. Philly drafted that teammate because they need defense. We need someone that can really shoot. We drafted what I think is a good choice. If we don't now bury him in Gleague for 3 seasons, lowball his pay and screw this all up by making him wish we never drafted him.

I go over the the Culver thread today and see a single possession clip of Culver shared there of him driving the basket mostly uncontested. But he did it with authority so I see a few posters get excited over it. This one game had 3 to 4 of the same from Nowell, plus 3s, plus examples of handles and sidestepping footwork that are pretty smooth. Aye, but he's a second round pick so the gods have spoken.

I appreciate your appreciation of Nowell. I do rate Culver above Nowell for many reasons. I think the odds of somebody drated #6 overall are better than somebody drafted #43 overall. Just the way it usually is. If Nowell turns out the better of the two I hope it's because Nowell is sensational and not because Culver disappoints.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#64 » by Jedzz » Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:17 am

KGdaBom wrote:I appreciate your appreciation of Nowell. I do rate Culver above Nowell for many reasons. I think the odds of somebody drated #6 overall are better than somebody drafted #43 overall. Just the way it usually is. If Nowell turns out the better of the two I hope it's because Nowell is sensational and not because Culver disappoints.


I understand what you are saying. Just tell me if you understand this one thing. Do you understand or believe that where a player is drafted can write a script for them that increases or decreases their chances of success or failure that may have nothing to do with how they would have played here? And if so, could a team for once not allow such things to curtail the chances of their other pick?

We've already started to see it with Nowell. The "not likely" responses I'm seeing just help confirm it. The lowball offer...what's next? His next 4 years hidden in Iowa?

You said you don't want to see Culver fail just so Nowell can succeed. Of course, neither do I. Maybe we can make room for the idea that they could both succeed, both be better than who we have already. Would that be a bad thing? If the answer is no, then why not give them both the same opportunities to succeed and forget about where they were selected in the silly linear draft. But of course people are going to automatically be fine with him stashed in Iowa simply because we have no guard room for him.

I know I know. The team will probably ram Wiggins down our throat yet again for another 36 minutes and lots of it at the two. They also have Okogie. That's why Culver is getting talked up as a "playmaker" or creator for others. To buy him floor minutes at PG. That will include all 4.7 assists like he got in college last season while leading his merry band of nonamers in offense.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#65 » by old school 34 » Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:30 am

Of course, we want them both to succeed....but you & maybe Nowell have to get on board with the fact that that ship has sailed already. How you're evaluated and where you get drafted matters initially from a financial perspective and potentially from an opportunity standpoint that's just reality.....doesn't mean that both can't succeed, but both paths will look different. I go to college & graduate from a community college & my buddy graduates with same degree but @ an Ivy school....job opportunities will be different out of the gate....doesn't mean both can't be successful but I better not kid myself that I won't still have more to prove while most likely making less to start....that's not nba...it's life to me?

Both sides here are just trying to leverage their side for the best outcome possible....if it becomes contentious (for me)....it starts to become a red flag that maybe Nowell doesn't have a clear idea of how the business works &/or (up to this point) the overall perception of where the majority of the nba teams evaluate him individually.....still doesn't mean he can't succeed, but his reality is a mid-2nd round pick in one of the lesser drafts out there. I get you don't value what the pundits out there say, but that does matter on the front end & if Nowell takes the same kind of logic and uses that as a crutch/excuse vs. motivation (hear Naz Reid--but even he needs to remember action over words).
Jedzz wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:I appreciate your appreciation of Nowell. I do rate Culver above Nowell for many reasons. I think the odds of somebody drated #6 overall are better than somebody drafted #43 overall. Just the way it usually is. If Nowell turns out the better of the two I hope it's because Nowell is sensational and not because Culver disappoints.


I understand what you are saying. Just tell me if you understand this one thing. Do you understand or believe that where a player is drafted can write a script for them that increases or decreases their chances of success or failure that may have nothing to do with how they would have played here? And if so, could a team for once not allow such things to curtail the chances of their other pick?

We've already started to see it with Nowell. The "not likely" responses I'm seeing just help confirm it. The lowball offer...what's next? His next 4 years hidden in Iowa?

You said you don't want to see Culver fail just so Nowell can succeed. Of course, neither do I. Maybe we can make room for the idea that they could both succeed, both be better than who we have already. Would that be a bad thing? If the answer is no, then why not give them both the same opportunities to succeed and forget about where they were selected in the silly linear draft. But of course people are going to automatically be fine with him stashed in Iowa simply because we have no guard room for him.

I know I know. The team will probably ram Wiggins down our throat yet again for another 36 minutes and lots of it at the two. They also have Okogie. That's why Culver is getting talked up as a "playmaker" or creator for others. To buy him floor minutes at PG. That will include all 4.7 assists like he got in college last season while leading his merry band of nonamers in offense.


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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#66 » by Jedzz » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:10 am

old school 34 wrote:Of course, we want them both to succeed....but you & maybe Nowell have to get on board with the fact that that ship has sailed already. How you're evaluated and where you get drafted matters initially from a financial perspective and potentially from an opportunity standpoint that's just reality.....doesn't mean that both can't succeed, but both paths will look different. I go to college & graduate from a community college & my buddy graduates with same degree but @ an Ivy school....job opportunities will be different out of the gate....doesn't mean both can't be successful but I better not kid myself that I won't still have more to prove while most likely making less to start....that's not nba...it's life to me?

Both sides here are just trying to leverage their side for the best outcome possible....if it becomes contentious (for me)....it starts to become a red flag that maybe Nowell doesn't have a clear idea of how the business works &/or (up to this point) the overall perception of where the majority of the nba teams evaluate him individually.....still doesn't mean he can't succeed, but his reality is a mid-2nd round pick in one of the lesser drafts out there. I get you don't value what the pundits out there say, but that does matter on the front end & if Nowell takes the same kind of logic and uses that as a crutch/excuse vs. motivation (hear Naz Reid--but even he needs to remember action over words).


Contentious from him isn't what will happen initially. Dissolution maybe if he ends up with a single year guarantee that he will spend in Gleague while looking up at this team full of non shooting talents and wondering what gives here. We need to get real about what this team is right now. Everyone around the league sees it. There are no above board shooters playing here except for Kat now. Even Teague has now dropped below board.

This team has to stop trying to take advantage of this one.

Your points sound logical as per typical Wolves handling of picks. Cold, but No doubt. I've been clear that this should be handled different for this player.

Normally our second rounders are so raw nobody bats an eye, however this time the player isn't a raw mess. It could change the Wolves future very quickly.

If handled right and it pays off you might have a career long quality shooter. Don't handle this wrong.

I would trade everyone besides Kat to find another 50/40/80 guy like Kat offers this team.

Think of it this way for a second. The team was prepared to offload many players and trade something massive this summer for Dlo. Why? Because he was someone young that could bring more offensive validity to the guards.

Nowell is possibly a better shooter than all of our guards right now. But he's more than just a shooter. He also can finish at the rim, above the rim. He can defend and he could still be improving more yet. This could be the player, the hope of finding someone in the draft cheap that everyone always talks about. He would come in a heck of a lot cheaper than trading for DLo's 37% 3 if they just would offer something respectful and give him that chance now.

Can you see the danger now in thinking coldly that this "ship has sailed" already?
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#67 » by minimus » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:45 am

That is another situation where POBO and coach must be two different persons. I can not imagine Ryan negotiating Nowell contract with such diligence while understanding that today he will be coaching Nowell and demanding everything.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#68 » by Jedzz » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:45 am

If December comes around and all Nowell gets is a couple Gleague games in and then he's added to the deal along with all our future FRPs to Warriors for Dlo, you better riot and protest this team's choices.

Here are the additions so far this team and the shooting they are known for so far:
Layman 50% FGs, 33% 3s (best season)
N. Reid 47% FGs, 33% 3s
Napier 39% FGs. 35% 3s
Graham 40% FGs. 36% 3s (33% FGs and 30% 3s last year in his highest usage and 21 starts)
J. Bell 57% FGs. 0% 3s
T. Wallace 44% FGs. 24% 3s
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#69 » by Worm Guts » Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:00 pm

minimus wrote:That is another situation where POBO and coach must be two different persons. I can not imagine Ryan negotiating Nowell contract with such diligence while understanding that today he will be coaching Nowell and demanding everything.


I guess it's a good thing then, because you shouldn't be giving out contracts just to make players easier to coach.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#70 » by minimus » Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:05 pm

Worm Guts wrote:
minimus wrote:That is another situation where POBO and coach must be two different persons. I can not imagine Ryan negotiating Nowell contract with such diligence while understanding that today he will be coaching Nowell and demanding everything.


I guess it's a good thing then, because you shouldn't be giving out contracts just to make players easier to coach.


Exactly
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#71 » by SmokeyPaw » Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:13 pm

Jedzz wrote:
Killboard wrote:
Jedzz wrote:Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.


Open mind? Sure, why not.

Likely? Not, not at all. Both are young sophmores that played in small schools. One was the offensive hub of his team, that made the 1st final four appearance. Posted better per36 stats in every single category, it bigger and longer, had a higher usage, more impact for his team and better 3pt and FT ratios. The other one is a more efficient shooter and some months younger.

Based on their college careers, both start from different points. One was saw for many draft experts as a top3 talent, the other was passed on by 30 teams, and 12 teams passed on him twice. That alone means that Culver will have a longer leash going into the league. Nowell will have to work for a roster spot, then push his way into the rotation and prove to be playable sooner than later.


I'm not sure which person you were talking about with better 3PT and FT ratios. I'm reading that you are open to it, but still coming at this building off preconceived notions somehow based on draft "experts". I don't give them that much clout. If we could, no one would ever have busts and many more early FRPs would work out better. I think way too many decisions after the draft are ruled by this unverified process, corrupted process. Teams purposely not talking about their second choice players happens all the time as they hope they go unnoticed and hope they drop right out of the draft entirely. The really great FO teams are finding real players back here or undrafted.

You said "every single category" per 36. I'm not seeing that, I believe that is overstating things. According to sports-ref I'm seeing per 40 that Nowell beats Culver in 3pt %, FG%, FT%, and he's just short of Culver in boards, assists, steals, etc. Higher than Culver in TS%, They trade a small difference in Off/Def ratings. Culver being more defensive, Nowell being more offensive, neither have bad defensive numbers. In size, Culver lists at 6-5 and under 200. While Nowell is 6-4 and over 200. So while you are correct that he edges Nowell in a number of categories by a little, that does not include shooting at all and overall it's much closer than the way you put it. Just stating that Nowell is only a more efficient shooter does not, to me, cover this.

I think playing alongside someone like the Philly #20 pick allowed Nowell to focus on offensive side. If Culver had played with Thybulle, do Culvers steals blocks numbers drop just enough to match Nowell's? I think so. The assists are too close and both are low enough that I'm not claiming either of them as playmakers for others, but that hasn't stopped people from claiming Culver is one at 4.6 assists or less per 40 (2.7 as a freshman).

So describing him as an "offensive hub" for his team has more to say about his surrounding teammates than him. He wasn't hitting double digit assists creating for others as offensive hub seems to describe. Do you see where I'm reading preconceived notions into these descriptions? Just trying to say where I'm coming from, not trying to argue. It's why I asked if people can truly be open to the idea of this possibility. I think your posts on this subject have otherwise been quite informative.


Culver is significantly longer than Nowell. Think 6'5" was Culver's listed height out of HS. Measured longer this spring. Tankathon has:

Culver height 6' 6.75" ws 6' 9.5"
Nowell height 6'4.25" ws 6'7.25"

Hopefully both do well.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#72 » by mplsfonz23 » Thu Jul 25, 2019 1:27 pm

I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#73 » by Jedzz » Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:15 pm

SmokeyPaw wrote:Culver is significantly longer than Nowell. Think 6'5" was Culver's listed height out of HS. Measured longer this spring. Tankathon has:

Culver height 6' 6.75" ws 6' 9.5"
Nowell height 6'4.25" ws 6'7.25"

Hopefully both do well.


What did Tankathon say Culver's weight is now? Just wondering.

Yes, it would be nice. I hope they are both good. But it's starting to look like one of them won't get a chance to play for years, if at all here. Go figure it's the only player attached to this team that could maybe keep up with Kat shooting-wise.

Wiggins is longer than both of them and it doesn't mean much alone.
They need to fix this poor management of Nowell's deal and get right. This team does not survive the Wiggins era if they aren't getting the most out of their draft picks.

I read an offseason fairytale about Point Wiggins again maybe last week? Please people stop!
Now I've read a new grand plan recently about Point Culver.
I can't wait for the next fairytale about size mismatches when they finally talk Point KAT.

No more fairytales please. Just start doing the right things.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#74 » by Jedzz » Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:38 pm

mplsfonz23 wrote:I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)

When exactly is next time to "call shots"? 4 years from now, never? Never starts after he's forgotten after a year in Iowa and has no guaranteed years left to make anyone remember him. Meanwhile the team will still have Wiggins taking up SG minutes. This never gets right if it starts wrong.

Shabbazz? Bazz was offered 40 Million. How can you compare the offers and decisions? 800k guaranteed for 1 year and rights locked up for 4 years. Slightly different offers huh.

Given what the team is doing with the current roster and his offer, Nowell's entire future chance at a basketball career might have died the day Wolves drafted him. Just like 90% of our second round picks. Only it would be difficult to find a 50/44/80 capable player among our former second round picks, or former FRPs either.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#75 » by Jedzz » Thu Jul 25, 2019 4:52 pm

Jedzz wrote:If December comes around and all Nowell gets is a couple Gleague games in and then he's added to the deal along with all our future FRPs to Warriors for Dlo, you better riot and protest this team's choices.

Here are the additions so far this team and the shooting they are known for so far:
Layman 50% FGs, 33% 3s (best season)
N. Reid 47% FGs, 33% 3s
Napier 39% FGs. 35% 3s
Graham 40% FGs. 36% 3s (33% FGs and 30% 3s last year in his highest usage and 21 starts)
J. Bell 57% FGs. 0% 3s
T. Wallace 44% FGs. 24% 3s

Adding Culver 46% FGs. 30-38% 3s.
Nowell. 50% FGs. 44% 3s.

Now let's all remember that KAT is the only player left who shoots at 40% level 3s. Not a single other player currently with team has shown the ability to do so here or before here other than Nowell. Does anyone care to see the numbers for current players?

Yeah, let's bury our best in Iowa! :banghead:
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#76 » by Killboard » Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:03 pm

Jedzz wrote:I'm not sure which person you were talking about with better 3PT and FT ratios. I'm reading that you are open to it, but still coming at this building off preconceived notions somehow based on draft "experts". I don't give them that much clout. If we could, no one would ever have busts and many more early FRPs would work out better. I think way too many decisions after the draft are ruled by this unverified process, corrupted process. Teams purposely not talking about their second choice players happens all the time as they hope they go unnoticed and hope they drop right out of the draft entirely. The really great FO teams are finding real players back here or undrafted.

You said "every single category" per 36. I'm not seeing that, I believe that is overstating things. According to sports-ref I'm seeing per 40 that Nowell beats Culver in 3pt %, FG%, FT%, and he's just short of Culver in boards, assists, steals, etc. Higher than Culver in TS%, They trade a small difference in Off/Def ratings. Culver being more defensive, Nowell being more offensive, neither have bad defensive numbers. In size, Culver lists at 6-5 and under 200. While Nowell is 6-4 and over 200. So while you are correct that he edges Nowell in a number of categories by a little, that does not include shooting at all and overall it's much closer than the way you put it. Just stating that Nowell is only a more efficient shooter does not, to me, cover this.


Culver had the better 3pt and FT ratio. This means that Culver took more 3 pointers and Free Throws for each FG attempt.

% stats are not per36 stats, that's why I articulated the phrase that way.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jarrett-culver--jaylen-nowell

Nowell is a more efficient shooter, which I pointed out, but carries a lower USG% too. Culver team was also considerably better with him being clearly the best player on the roster.

Jedzz wrote:I think playing alongside someone like the Philly #20 pick allowed Nowell to focus on offensive side. If Culver had played with Thybulle, do Culvers steals blocks numbers drop just enough to match Nowell's? I think so. The assists are too close and both are low enough that I'm not claiming either of them as playmakers for others, but that hasn't stopped people from claiming Culver is one at 4.6 assists or less per 40 (2.7 as a freshman).


Well, Culver was part of the 1st ranked defense in the college last season, and was likely the best defensive player on that team where no other player is considered a NBA prospect.

Jedzz wrote:So describing him as an "offensive hub" for his team has more to say about his surrounding teammates than him. He wasn't hitting double digit assists creating for others as offensive hub seems to describe. Do you see where I'm reading preconceived notions into these descriptions? Just trying to say where I'm coming from, not trying to argue. It's why I asked if people can truly be open to the idea of this possibility. I think your posts on this subject have otherwise been quite informative.


32% USG is an offensive hub IMO. For reference, Culver paricipated in 711 Points Produced on 1234 minutes. Nowell had 567 Points Produced in 1240. The 711 points qualify Culver as the 7th in this category among Sophmores and Freshmen this season.

Culver OBPM of 5.5 and DBPM of 5.8 make him a really notable prospect.

Since this stat is registered (back to 2010-2011), only 27 Freshmen or Sophmores who played at least 500 minutes scored +5/+5 (which means roughly 3 players like that per season in all college basketball). Among those 27, Culver sits 2nd in Points Produced, 1st in USG%, 5th in AST% and 3rd in Points per game. Not shabby.

For comparison, Nowell posted a +3.4 OBPM /+1.8 DBPM. 516 players qualify for +3/+1.5 and over 500 minutes in the same span, which means there are roughly 60 players qualified per year for those stats.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2011&year_max=2019&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&c1stat=obpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=5&c2stat=dbpm&c2comp=gt&c2val=5&c3stat=mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=500&order_by=pts


Nobody knows the evolution this prospects will have from here on though, just that one is clearly better than the other up to this point.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#77 » by old school 34 » Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:20 pm

Little bit of an apples & oranges comparison...college shooting %'s don't always carry over & never right away?

I get you hate Wiggins, but to anoint a 2nd round pick because of strong shooting %'s & go above & beyond on his first contract before he's proven anything in the nba...that just doesn't sound like a great FO decision either...that your so quick to call out? He doesn't even have a Naz Reid like summer league run in him to support what your suggesting the Wolves do?
Jedzz wrote:
Jedzz wrote:If December comes around and all Nowell gets is a couple Gleague games in and then he's added to the deal along with all our future FRPs to Warriors for Dlo, you better riot and protest this team's choices.

Here are the additions so far this team and the shooting they are known for so far:
Layman 50% FGs, 33% 3s (best season)
N. Reid 47% FGs, 33% 3s
Napier 39% FGs. 35% 3s
Graham 40% FGs. 36% 3s (33% FGs and 30% 3s last year in his highest usage and 21 starts)
J. Bell 57% FGs. 0% 3s
T. Wallace 44% FGs. 24% 3s

Adding Culver 46% FGs. 30-38% 3s.
Nowell. 50% FGs. 44% 3s.

Now let's all remember that KAT is the only player left who shoots at 40% level 3s. Not a single other player currently with team has shown the ability to do so here or before here other than Nowell. Does anyone care to see the numbers for current players?

Yeah, let's bury our best in Iowa! :banghead:


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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#78 » by Dewey » Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:46 pm

old school 34 wrote:Little bit of an apples & oranges comparison...college shooting %'s don't always carry over & never right away?

I get you hate Wiggins, but to anoint a 2nd round pick because of strong shooting %'s & go above & beyond on his first contract before he's proven anything in the nba...that just doesn't sound like a great FO decision either...that your so quick to call out? He doesn't even have a Naz Reid like summer league run in him to support what your suggesting the Wolves do?
Jedzz wrote:
Jedzz wrote:If December comes around and all Nowell gets is a couple Gleague games in and then he's added to the deal along with all our future FRPs to Warriors for Dlo, you better riot and protest this team's choices.

Here are the additions so far this team and the shooting they are known for so far:
Layman 50% FGs, 33% 3s (best season)
N. Reid 47% FGs, 33% 3s
Napier 39% FGs. 35% 3s
Graham 40% FGs. 36% 3s (33% FGs and 30% 3s last year in his highest usage and 21 starts)
J. Bell 57% FGs. 0% 3s
T. Wallace 44% FGs. 24% 3s

Adding Culver 46% FGs. 30-38% 3s.
Nowell. 50% FGs. 44% 3s.

Now let's all remember that KAT is the only player left who shoots at 40% level 3s. Not a single other player currently with team has shown the ability to do so here or before here other than Nowell. Does anyone care to see the numbers for current players?

Yeah, let's bury our best in Iowa! :banghead:


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People have argued before whether or not its important to show your stuff before/after draft in srimmages, summerleague, etc... Reid showed up and played summer league, Nowell did not. Reid got a deal, Nowell has not yet. Wolves trying to build some team culture and a second rounder trying to holdout dont fit the model. If he can get a guarenteed deal for a year to walk the walk he better take it IMO.
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#79 » by Killboard » Thu Jul 25, 2019 7:54 pm

Dewey wrote:People have argued before whether or not its important to show your stuff before/after draft in srimmages, summerleague, etc... Reid showed up and played summer league, Nowell did not. Reid got a deal, Nowell has not yet. Wolves trying to build some team culture and a second rounder trying to holdout dont fit the model. If he can get a guarenteed deal for a year to walk the walk he better take it IMO.


Im not an expert, but the options goes something like this:

1. Wolves must offer a Required Tender to Nowell. This is a minimum offer for one year. If the Wolves dont offer it, they lose Nowell draft rights inmediatly.
2. Nowell signs the Required Tender. If he doesnt make the roster, he inmediatly is a FA. If he makes the roster, he will be a RFA at the end of the season. Wolves can match any offer for him or he can simply take the qualyfing offer to play the season with the Wolves. Rinse and repeat for the 3rd season. This is due the FA rule for players with 3 or fewer season of NBA experience.

3. If Nowell doesnt play for the required tender, given he is an Early Draft, his draft rights are bound to his drafting team until one year after the first NBA Draft they could have entered as non-Early Entry players.

An Early Entry player is a player who is at least 19 years old during the calendar year when the draft is held, at least one NBA season has occurred since the player graduated high school and who has played less than 4 years in college


In resume:

1) They agree to a deal
2) They not agree, Nowell plays the year for the required tender (Rookie Minimum deal for 1 unguraranteed year), then is a RFA for the next 2 offseasons.
3) They not agree, Nowell plays in some other league for the next 3 years, then he sign with any team he likes (Not really sure about this point tough).
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Re: The Jaylen Nowell Thread 

Post#80 » by mplsfonz23 » Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:13 pm

Jedzz wrote:
mplsfonz23 wrote:I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)

When exactly is next time to "call shots"? 4 years from now, never? Never starts after he's forgotten after a year in Iowa and has no guaranteed years left to make anyone remember him. Meanwhile the team will still have Wiggins taking up SG minutes. This never gets right if it starts wrong.

Shabbazz? Bazz was offered 40 Million. How can you compare the offers and decisions? 800k guaranteed for 1 year and rights locked up for 4 years. Slightly different offers huh.

Given what the team is doing with the current roster and his offer, Nowell's entire future chance at a basketball career might have died the day Wolves drafted him. Just like 90% of our second round picks. Only it would be difficult to find a 50/44/80 capable player among our former second round picks, or former FRPs either.

The Shabazz thing was a joke. But the point is, is he getting bad advice?
Face reality, you are a second round pick, and should have expected the offers he received.

His career might have died the day we drafted him?
The way I see it is, he seems to be killing his own career. The Wolves gave him a shot. I could see him not happy with a two way contract, like Naz, but Naz snatched his deal once he rejected it, because he now has a chance to play in the NBA, and not just 45 days.
The answer is simple to me, sign a one year deal, play and prove your worth, no matter if it's here or the G.
This FO knows talent, (I hope) and if you have it, they will pay you. So, if you have to wait until you are coming off your rookie contract, here for one year, or 4 years, play to get paid.
And BTW, Bazz was an idiot to turn that down. (Thank God) Look at where he is now. :roll:

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