The Jaylen Nowell Thread

[horaceworthy]

I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)

The one year prove it deal will have to be offered if the Wolves want to retain his rights, but the deadline to offer that doesn’t come for another 2-3 weeks. Right now the deal the Wolves are offering has 3 years of team control at unguaranteed minimum salary attached to the prove it year. The guys drafted in Nowell’s range that have signed have all gotten at least 2 years of guaranteed money.

Our new FO comes from places that have reputations for playing hardball in contract negotiations, particularly with their drafted players. Reports are they originally lowballed Culver as much as the CBA allowed before ultimately signing him to the customary 120% of draft slot.

There isn’t much incentive for Nowell to sign the contract they offered to Naz, since the Wolves will have to offer him the tender if they want to retain his rights, which would give him a little more agency in his career sooner.

[Killboard]

I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)

The one year prove it deal will have to be offered if the Wolves want to retain his rights, but the deadline to offer that doesn’t come for another 2-3 weeks. Right now the deal the Wolves are offering has 3 years of team control at unguaranteed minimum salary attached to the prove it year. The guys drafted in Nowell’s range that have signed have all gotten at least 2 years of guaranteed money.

Our new FO comes from places that have reputations for playing hardball in contract negotiations, particularly with their drafted players. Reports are they originally lowballed Culver as much as the CBA allowed before ultimately signing him to the customary 120% of draft slot.

There isn’t much incentive for Nowell to sign the contract they offered to Naz, since the Wolves will have to offer him the tender if they want to retain his rights, which would give him a little more agency in his career sooner.

I think both are making solid points.

I agree that 1 guaranteed years+3 unguaranteed years is bad for Nowell, and that's the reported offer like Naz got. That's not better from his perspective than play for tender the first year, at least if he makes the roster. The second and third years the tender allows other NBA teams to set his market price while the 1+3 offered does not.

But the reality is, 2nd round picks dont see the floor very often. Their teams have to be commited to develop them and they more often than not don't contribute to win games the first couple of years. That's specially true for underclassmen. If a team cant get something valuable back, like a 3rd or 4th year for cheap, then could be better to move on.

I still thinking that a 2+2 would make much more sense for both sides. The wolves commit a roster spot to the 2nd year, but is barely a cap hit. If he earns a spot in year 3 and 4, the wolves have a cheap contributor. Nowell gets double guaranteed money, a team who commits to his development, and pays back if he gets good.

[KGdaBom]

I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)

The one year prove it deal will have to be offered if the Wolves want to retain his rights, but the deadline to offer that doesn’t come for another 2-3 weeks. Right now the deal the Wolves are offering has 3 years of team control at unguaranteed minimum salary attached to the prove it year. The guys drafted in Nowell’s range that have signed have all gotten at least 2 years of guaranteed money.

Our new FO comes from places that have reputations for playing hardball in contract negotiations, particularly with their drafted players. Reports are they originally lowballed Culver as much as the CBA allowed before ultimately signing him to the customary 120% of draft slot.

There isn’t much incentive for Nowell to sign the contract they offered to Naz, since the Wolves will have to offer him the tender if they want to retain his rights, which would give him a little more agency in his career sooner.

Not true according to what I read here earlier the guys drafted before him most got 2+2 deals but guys in his range drafted just after him got 2 way deals.

[horaceworthy]

I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)

The one year prove it deal will have to be offered if the Wolves want to retain his rights, but the deadline to offer that doesn’t come for another 2-3 weeks. Right now the deal the Wolves are offering has 3 years of team control at unguaranteed minimum salary attached to the prove it year. The guys drafted in Nowell’s range that have signed have all gotten at least 2 years of guaranteed money.

Our new FO comes from places that have reputations for playing hardball in contract negotiations, particularly with their drafted players. Reports are they originally lowballed Culver as much as the CBA allowed before ultimately signing him to the customary 120% of draft slot.

There isn’t much incentive for Nowell to sign the contract they offered to Naz, since the Wolves will have to offer him the tender if they want to retain his rights, which would give him a little more agency in his career sooner.

Not true according to what I read here earlier the guys drafted before him most got 2+2 deals but guys in his range drafted just after him got 2 way deals.

The highest drafted player I’ve seen sign a 2 way is Quinndary Weatherspoon at 49. The two players drafted directly before Nowell got 2+ years guaranteed (Paschall and Schofield) the two drafted directly after him (Bol and Roby) remain unsigned, then THT, Brazdeikis and Mann all got multiple years guaranteed at 46, 47 and 48.

I’m curious where you got your information.

[KGdaBom]

The one year prove it deal will have to be offered if the Wolves want to retain his rights, but the deadline to offer that doesn’t come for another 2-3 weeks. Right now the deal the Wolves are offering has 3 years of team control at unguaranteed minimum salary attached to the prove it year. The guys drafted in Nowell’s range that have signed have all gotten at least 2 years of guaranteed money.

Our new FO comes from places that have reputations for playing hardball in contract negotiations, particularly with their drafted players. Reports are they originally lowballed Culver as much as the CBA allowed before ultimately signing him to the customary 120% of draft slot.

There isn’t much incentive for Nowell to sign the contract they offered to Naz, since the Wolves will have to offer him the tender if they want to retain his rights, which would give him a little more agency in his career sooner.

Not true according to what I read here earlier the guys drafted before him most got 2+2 deals but guys in his range drafted just after him got 2 way deals.

The highest drafted player I’ve seen sign a 2 way is Quinndary Weatherspoon at 49. The two players drafted directly before Nowell got 2+ years guaranteed (Paschall and Schofield) the two drafted directly after him (Bol and Roby) remain unsigned, then THT, Brazdeikis and Mann all got multiple years guaranteed at 46, 47 and 48.

I’m curious where you got your information.

What I read and this was posted a day or two ago was that 7 of the 9 players drafted after Nowell got 2 ways. So I guess remove Bol and Roby Then that would be 46 and later. Both could be correct if one of 46-47-48 signed after the post was made. Has everybody signed after 49 been 2 Ways?

[gandlogo]

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/07/2019-nba-draft-pick-signings.html

This seems like a good listing of contract status for draftees this year.

[Nick K]

His fellow teammate was drafted in the top 20 of first round. Not for his offensive skills, but his defensive skills and effort. Thybulle is a unique block and steal fiend but only averaged 9 pts and 3 rebounds a game. Top 20? Idk. Offensively I'm not sure he ever earns any respect with a 30% 3pt shot which got worse as his 4 college years went on. His assists are lower than Nowell's.

Meanwhile Nowell averaged 5 rebounds and 16pts on 50% FGs, 44% 3pts, and showed to be a clutch late game shooter in his two college seasons. I'm sure Nowell is happy for Thybulle while also being a little miffed that Thybulle is guaranteed 6.8 million over his first three years with up to 9 plus possible. We offered Nowell what?

I agree. Well said.

[Nick K]

Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

I would guess that all of us see it as possible. I would also guess that most of us think it's unlikely. I don't know how good he is. I never heard of him until after we drafted him. Hopefully he is great. Whether we are low balling him and treating him unfair with our contract offer I don't know. Maybe Rosas is a penny pinching a$$hole. Maybe Nowell is too demanding. He was a mid second round draft pick. Unless we were geniuses making that pick odds are he will never amount to anything in the NBA. I'm hopeful that we get him signed and he proves any and all doubters wrong.
Nice clip. He looks good in highlights. However, they did repeat a couple of the same plays multiple times.

Were you aware he was Pac-12 Player of the year. He's in good company. In 3 years I bet this guy shows he should have been picked in the top 20 of the draft. Rosas needs to give this guy a little something and get this done.

[Jedzz]

The Shabazz thing was a joke. But the point is, is he getting bad advice?
Face reality, you are a second round pick, and should have expected the offers he received.

His career might have died the day we drafted him?
The way I see it is, he seems to be killing his own career. The Wolves gave him a shot. I could see him not happy with a two way contract, like Naz, but Naz snatched his deal once he rejected it, because he now has a chance to play in the NBA, and not just 45 days.
The answer is simple to me, sign a one year deal, play and prove your worth, no matter if it's here or the G.
This FO knows talent, (I hope) and if you have it, they will pay you. So, if you have to wait until you are coming off your rookie contract, here for one year, or 4 years, play to get paid.
And BTW, Bazz was an idiot to turn that down. (Thank God) Look at where he is now.

Bazz did screw up that decision badly. Thankfully.
Naz was undrafted. Of course he's happy to be contracted to be more than a camp body.

The answer is simple to me too. Nowell should refuse to sit behind our scrubs and get lowballed. I hate that it's happening because I'm seeing what I think is a real surprising player from a second round pick. Too bad the team is shaving pennies on this one.

[KGdaBom]

Does anyone here have an open enough mind to see a possibility that Jaylen Nowell could already be, or eventually be, a better NBA player than Culver? Or are we all just so inclined that since one was a top 6 pick and the other a second rounder that this is the only way to see their value forever?

If you see there is that possibility, how does the team make sure to not squander that possibility? How would you want the team to manage him in order to make sure Nowell is given that opportunity to show it? I don't really have that answer, because I'm well aware of how this team has operated in the past and I'm unsure how Rosas operates this team just yet.

I would guess that all of us see it as possible. I would also guess that most of us think it's unlikely. I don't know how good he is. I never heard of him until after we drafted him. Hopefully he is great. Whether we are low balling him and treating him unfair with our contract offer I don't know. Maybe Rosas is a penny pinching a$$hole. Maybe Nowell is too demanding. He was a mid second round draft pick. Unless we were geniuses making that pick odds are he will never amount to anything in the NBA. I'm hopeful that we get him signed and he proves any and all doubters wrong.
Nice clip. He looks good in highlights. However, they did repeat a couple of the same plays multiple times.

Were you aware he was Pac-12 Player of the year. He's in good company. In 3 years I bet this guy shows he should have been picked in the top 20 of the draft. Rosas needs to give this guy a little something and get this done.

Yes I was aware that he was Pac 12 PotY. However, Jake Browning the Vikings UDFA QB was PotY holds the all time Pac12 Wins record and some of the passing records. That is an indicator that Pac12 PotY doesn't mean that much. I like him. I hope everything works out, but my confidence level is not high.

[Jedzz]

Culver had the better 3pt and FT ratio. This means that Culver took more 3 pointers and Free Throws for each FG attempt.

% stats are not per36 stats, that's why I articulated the phrase that way.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jarrett-culver--jaylen-nowell

Nowell is a more efficient shooter, which I pointed out, but carries a lower USG% too. Culver team was also considerably better with him being clearly the best player on the roster.

I think playing alongside someone like the Philly #20 pick allowed Nowell to focus on offensive side. If Culver had played with Thybulle, do Culvers steals blocks numbers drop just enough to match Nowell's? I think so. The assists are too close and both are low enough that I'm not claiming either of them as playmakers for others, but that hasn't stopped people from claiming Culver is one at 4.6 assists or less per 40 (2.7 as a freshman).

Well, Culver was part of the 1st ranked defense in the college last season, and was likely the best defensive player on that team where no other player is considered a NBA prospect.

So describing him as an "offensive hub" for his team has more to say about his surrounding teammates than him. He wasn't hitting double digit assists creating for others as offensive hub seems to describe. Do you see where I'm reading preconceived notions into these descriptions? Just trying to say where I'm coming from, not trying to argue. It's why I asked if people can truly be open to the idea of this possibility. I think your posts on this subject have otherwise been quite informative.

32% ais an offensive hub IMO. For reference, Culver paricipated in 711 Points Produced on 1234 minutes. Nowell had 567 Points Produced in 1240. The 711 points qualify Culver as the 7th in this category among Sophmores and Freshmen this season.

Culver OBPM of 5.5 and DBPM of 5.8 make him a really notable prospect.

Since this stat is registered (back to 2010-2011), only 27 Freshmen or Sophmores who played at least 500 minutes scored +5/+5 (which means roughly 3 players like that per season in all college basketball). Among those 27, Culver sits 2nd in Points Produced, 1st in USG%, 5th in AST% and 3rd in Points per game. Not shabby.

For comparison, Nowell posted a +3.4 OBPM /+1.8 DBPM. 516 players qualify for +3/+1.5 and over 500 minutes in the same span, which means there are roughly 60 players qualified per year for those stats.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2011&year_max=2019&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&c1stat=obpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=5&c2stat=dbpm&c2comp=gt&c2val=5&c3stat=mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=500&order_by=pts


Nobody knows the evolution this prospects will have from here on though, just that one is clearly better than the other up to this point.

That's some amazing info, thanks for pointing it all out. Much of it does back your opinion. However your final thoughts on the comparison and some of these advanced stats does seem to be overlooking the difference between who each played with, who they played against, and things like the amount of injured players on each team. I think Culver's USG has a lot to do with those things. I don't really accept the Usage stat as a claim he was a hub of creation for others. I don't think they had that kind of offense. Maybe a hub as in just often being involved or drawing defenders, fine. But if he was setting players up for scoring more often his assists would have been much higher. To not average at least 5 yet clearly led the team tells me it was a bunch of individuals over there. That team did have plenty of better 3pt shooters than Culver and better finishers at the rim. Yet he got the minutes for being an all around threat none of the others were.

Looking at extremes in the NBA, Harden's usage at 34,36 and 40.5 this past season and his assists anywhere from 7.5 to 11. The Hub for that team, given lack of others due to injury. As much as a ball hog that he is, creation for others did happen. Likewise Westbrook, the other leader in Usage, with double digits assists even though he's known as a ball hog. These guys are hubs for their offense to me. That's how i see the term Hub fitting in, which looks like is a little different from what you were saying.

[Killboard]

That's some amazing info, thanks for pointing it all out. Much of it does back your opinion. However your final thoughts on the comparison and some of these advanced stats does seem to be overlooking the difference between who each played with, who they played against, and things like the amount of injured players on each team. I think Culver's USG has a lot to do with those things. I don't really accept the Usage stat as a claim he was a hub of creation for others. I don't think they had that kind of offense. Maybe a hub as in just often being involved or drawing defenders, fine. But if he was setting players up for scoring more often his assists would have been much higher. To not average at least 5 yet clearly led the team tells me it was a bunch of individuals over there. That team did have plenty of better 3pt shooters than Culver and better finishers at the rim. Yet he got the minutes for being an all around threat none of the others were.

Looking at extremes in the NBA, Harden's usage at 34,36 and 40.5 this past season and his assists anywhere from 7.5 to 11. The Hub for that team, given lack of others due to injury. As much as a ball hog that he is, creation for others did happen. Likewise Westbrook, the other leader in Usage, with double digits assists even though he's known as a ball hog. These guys are hubs for their offense to me. That's how i see the term Hub fitting in, which looks like is a little different from what you were saying.

There is no hard limit to define what an offensive hub is, but 30% USG is a very good line IMO.

This is a complete list of the players that got 30% USG last season in the NBA:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&year_min=2019&year_max=2019&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=usg_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=30&c2stat=mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=500&c3stat=ast_per_g&c3comp=gt&order_by=ws

Im not trying to compare Culver to any of those guys, but the impact on their respective teams.

Passing is an important part of it, no question. In that list, Kawhi is at the bottom at 3.3 per game and Embiid is at 3.7. Not eye popping numbers but they still were the focal points of the offense. Kawhi made 16.4% of his team assists while on the floor for example. Culver made 26.1% of his team assists, 6% more than their PG and 12% more than their SG. That's close to what Blake Griffin was for his Pistons last year.

If you count points+points in which he assists (which is Points Produced) Culver made 711 vs the 436 and 407 his PG and SG made. That means Culver alone produced 85% of what the 2nd and 3rd options combined for. Just other single player in the roster produced more than 250.

Its pretty clear to me that he carried the offense for his college to the first season with 30+ wins and first Final appearence in 90 years.

[KGdaBom]

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/07/2019-nba-draft-pick-signings.html

This seems like a good listing of contract status for draftees this year.

As I expected there were the 3 2+2s after Nowell and almost everybody else got 2 Ways. So both reports were accurate.

[Jedzz]

Its pretty clear to me that he carried the offense for his college to the first season with 30+ wins and first Final appearence in 90 years.

I think it is clear he led that team. That's nice experience for him to have.

[horaceworthy]

I think he's getting some bad advice.
He went where he was projected to go, so he should have expected a prove it deal. Or, go back to school and raise your stock.
These players are coming out too early because they think they are ready when they are not. They see a couple of GL success stories and think they can do that too.
He has to realize how many teams passed on him, and how hard it is to make a ball club. Hope his agent isn't the same one Shabazz had. Take the deal, play well, then by this time next year, you can call the shots. (I think)

The one year prove it deal will have to be offered if the Wolves want to retain his rights, but the deadline to offer that doesn’t come for another 2-3 weeks. Right now the deal the Wolves are offering has 3 years of team control at unguaranteed minimum salary attached to the prove it year. The guys drafted in Nowell’s range that have signed have all gotten at least 2 years of guaranteed money.

Our new FO comes from places that have reputations for playing hardball in contract negotiations, particularly with their drafted players. Reports are they originally lowballed Culver as much as the CBA allowed before ultimately signing him to the customary 120% of draft slot.

There isn’t much incentive for Nowell to sign the contract they offered to Naz, since the Wolves will have to offer him the tender if they want to retain his rights, which would give him a little more agency in his career sooner.

I think both are making solid points.

I agree that 1 guaranteed years+3 unguaranteed years is bad for Nowell, and that's the reported offer like Naz got. That's not better from his perspective than play for tender the first year, at least if he makes the roster. The second and third years the tender allows other NBA teams to set his market price while the 1+3 offered does not.

But the reality is, 2nd round picks dont see the floor very often. Their teams have to be commited to develop them and they more often than not don't contribute to win games the first couple of years. That's specially true for underclassmen. If a team cant get something valuable back, like a 3rd or 4th year for cheap, then could be better to move on.

I still thinking that a 2+2 would make much more sense for both sides. The wolves commit a roster spot to the 2nd year, but is barely a cap hit. If he earns a spot in year 3 and 4, the wolves have a cheap contributor. Nowell gets double guaranteed money, a team who commits to his development, and pays back if he gets good.

I get it from the FO’s perspective, and don’t think people should be surprised by tense negotiations. Not trying to bash them for it, just responding to the odd blame the kid approach some chose by pointing out the new crew comes from organizations that play hardball and that the reported ask for a 2+1 KBD style contract reported is closer to the standard given the contracts signed by those drafted within a handful of picks before/after him.

Hopefully the Wolves can get him for that 2+2, I like Nowell, so I’ll be happy as long as they can get 3 years and full Bird rights. We probably won’t find out for a few weeks.

[Jedzz]

I Haven't seen one single clip of this guy in motion since he got here. This better not be another longterm Boot thing.

[Klomp]

I Haven't seen one single clip of this guy in motion since he got here. This better not be another longterm Boot thing.

This was posted yesterday in the offseason updates thread...

Read on Twitter

[Nick K]

I would guess that all of us see it as possible. I would also guess that most of us think it's unlikely. I don't know how good he is. I never heard of him until after we drafted him. Hopefully he is great. Whether we are low balling him and treating him unfair with our contract offer I don't know. Maybe Rosas is a penny pinching a$$hole. Maybe Nowell is too demanding. He was a mid second round draft pick. Unless we were geniuses making that pick odds are he will never amount to anything in the NBA. I'm hopeful that we get him signed and he proves any and all doubters wrong.
Nice clip. He looks good in highlights. However, they did repeat a couple of the same plays multiple times.

Were you aware he was Pac-12 Player of the year. He's in good company. In 3 years I bet this guy shows he should have been picked in the top 20 of the draft. Rosas needs to give this guy a little something and get this done.

Yes I was aware that he was Pac 12 PotY. However, Jake Browning the Vikings UDFA QB was PotY holds the all time Pac12 Wins record and some of the passing records. That is an indicator that Pac12 PotY doesn't mean that much. I like him. I hope everything works out, but my confidence level is not high.

Wrong! You are talking apples and oranges. Basketball translates much more. It's a bad analogy. Glad you like him though.

[Jedzz]

I Haven't seen one single clip of this guy in motion since he got here. This better not be another longterm Boot thing.

This was posted yesterday in the offseason updates thread...

Read on Twitter

Thanks Klomp.


Play them both Saunders!

[KGdaBom]

Were you aware he was Pac-12 Player of the year. He's in good company. In 3 years I bet this guy shows he should have been picked in the top 20 of the draft. Rosas needs to give this guy a little something and get this done.

Yes I was aware that he was Pac 12 PotY. However, Jake Browning the Vikings UDFA QB was PotY holds the all time Pac12 Wins record and some of the passing records. That is an indicator that Pac12 PotY doesn't mean that much. I like him. I hope everything works out, but my confidence level is not high.

Wrong! You are talking apples and oranges. Basketball translates much more. It's a bad analogy. Glad you like him though.

Not Wrong.
Jake Browning passes Marcus Mariota for most wins by a QB in pac-12 history (self.CFB)
submitted 8 months ago * by Washington • Boise StatepM-me_your_Triggers
Browning’s seasons: 7-5*, 12-2, 10-3, 8-3
Mariota’s seasons: 12-1, 11-2, 13-2

If Pac12PotY meant that much in basketball Nowell would have been drafted earlier than Mid 2nd round.