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Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland)

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Dewey
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#81 » by Dewey » Thu Aug 8, 2019 2:06 pm

KGdaBom wrote:
Dewey wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:I wonder how many sports he could have made the HoF in if he had put his mind to them.

2?

We know the answer is at least two. My question or more precisely pondering was how many sports he might have been a hall of famer in. There is no correct answer to this and you notice my statement ended in a period not a question mark.

ok ... so 2 :wink:
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#82 » by BNM » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:04 pm

Late to this thread, another POR fan here. One thing you guys got in both Vonleh and Layman are guys who are great teammates. These are two young guys who got inconsistent minutes in Portland and never once complained about their constantly changing roles, lack of playing time of lack of touches. They just worked hard, did what the coaches asked and stepped into whatever role was needed.

These are the kind of players coaches love to have on the bench. Guys who will, even when not playing, support their teammates, not cause problems and will always be ready when called upon.

I wish them both well and would gladly welcome either one back in POR if the opportunity ever arises. Good, but not great, players who are great guys and great teammates.
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#83 » by Jedzz » Fri Aug 9, 2019 5:38 pm

BNM wrote:Late to this thread, another POR fan here. One thing you guys got in both Vonleh and Layman are guys who are great teammates. These are two young guys who got inconsistent minutes in Portland and never once complained about their constantly changing roles, lack of playing time of lack of touches. They just worked hard, did what the coaches asked and stepped into whatever role was needed.

These are the kind of players coaches love to have on the bench. Guys who will, even when not playing, support their teammates, not cause problems and will always be ready when called upon.

I wish them both well and would gladly welcome either one back in POR if the opportunity ever arises. Good, but not great, players who are great guys and great teammates.


Great to hear. However, what limits them to "not great" besides being relegated to bench minutes by previously established starting level players?
These are my opinions.
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#84 » by BNM » Fri Aug 9, 2019 6:01 pm

Jedzz wrote:
BNM wrote:Late to this thread, another POR fan here. One thing you guys got in both Vonleh and Layman are guys who are great teammates. These are two young guys who got inconsistent minutes in Portland and never once complained about their constantly changing roles, lack of playing time of lack of touches. They just worked hard, did what the coaches asked and stepped into whatever role was needed.

These are the kind of players coaches love to have on the bench. Guys who will, even when not playing, support their teammates, not cause problems and will always be ready when called upon.

I wish them both well and would gladly welcome either one back in POR if the opportunity ever arises. Good, but not great, players who are great guys and great teammates.


Great to hear. However, what limits them to "not great" besides being relegated to bench minutes by previously established starting level players?


Layman - lack of consistency. He could outgrow that with with more PT and a consistent role.

Vonleh - limited offensive skill set. He is, however, a good rebounder and a rock solid defender.

Let's face it, if they were great players, they'd both be making a lot more money. As is, on their current deals, I think Layman is paid fairly and Vonleh is a bargain.
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#85 » by Jedzz » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:47 am

BNM wrote:
Jedzz wrote:Great to hear. However, what limits them to "not great" besides being relegated to bench minutes by previously established starting level players?


Layman - lack of consistency. He could outgrow that with with more PT and a consistent role.

Vonleh - limited offensive skill set. He is, however, a good rebounder and a rock solid defender.

Let's face it, if they were great players, they'd both be making a lot more money. As is, on their current deals, I think Layman is paid fairly and Vonleh is a bargain.


Layman's 3pt numbers don't impress me much. Other than a steep climb up to last season's numbers in both 2s and 3s when his minutes increased over the 4 and 7 mins/game he had his first two seasons. It always seems like a good sign to me when their numbers and efficiency increases as their minutes do. Plenty of player examples where that's not happening. If he continues that trend, his first foray into a season averaging at least 20 mins a game might be another step up. Well see if he can get that much play here.
These are my opinions.
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#86 » by BNM » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:36 am

Jedzz wrote:
BNM wrote:
Jedzz wrote:Great to hear. However, what limits them to "not great" besides being relegated to bench minutes by previously established starting level players?


Layman - lack of consistency. He could outgrow that with with more PT and a consistent role.

Vonleh - limited offensive skill set. He is, however, a good rebounder and a rock solid defender.

Let's face it, if they were great players, they'd both be making a lot more money. As is, on their current deals, I think Layman is paid fairly and Vonleh is a bargain.


Layman's 3pt numbers don't impress me much. Other than a steep climb up to last season's numbers in both 2s and 3s when his minutes increased over the 4 and 7 mins/game he had his first two seasons. It always seems like a good sign to me when their numbers and efficiency increases as their minutes do. Plenty of player examples where that's not happening. If he continues that trend, his first foray into a season averaging at least 20 mins a game might be another step up. Well see if he can get that much play here.


Layman shot a very respectable .374 3FG% in 46 games prior to the all star break, but an abysmal .224 post all star break. That may be more fatigue related than inconsistency, as he saw his minutes jump from 160 the season before to 1327 last season. He went from averaging 4 MPG in 35 games to almost 19 MPG in 71 games. That was really his first exposure to the grind of a long NBA regular season.
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#87 » by Killboard » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:30 pm

BNM wrote:
Jedzz wrote:
BNM wrote:
Layman - lack of consistency. He could outgrow that with with more PT and a consistent role.

Vonleh - limited offensive skill set. He is, however, a good rebounder and a rock solid defender.

Let's face it, if they were great players, they'd both be making a lot more money. As is, on their current deals, I think Layman is paid fairly and Vonleh is a bargain.


Layman's 3pt numbers don't impress me much. Other than a steep climb up to last season's numbers in both 2s and 3s when his minutes increased over the 4 and 7 mins/game he had his first two seasons. It always seems like a good sign to me when their numbers and efficiency increases as their minutes do. Plenty of player examples where that's not happening. If he continues that trend, his first foray into a season averaging at least 20 mins a game might be another step up. Well see if he can get that much play here.


Layman shot a very respectable .374 3FG% in 46 games prior to the all star break, but an abysmal .224 post all star break. That may be more fatigue related than inconsistency, as he saw his minutes jump from 160 the season before to 1327 last season. He went from averaging 4 MPG in 35 games to almost 19 MPG in 71 games. That was really his first exposure to the grind of a long NBA regular season.


Im not sold on fatigue being the cause, but it would be great if he actually is an above average 3pt shooter.
For one, would make his 3 year deal look dirty cheap. It also would help to set a high bar for wing minutes.

But I want to have some insight in his career and will share it here.

He played 4 years in Maryland (Winning 25, 17, 28 and 27 games) and over 30 MPG the last 3 seasons there.
Was a good 3pt shooter (.362) on medium volume (5.6 att per40) and .759 FT% (topped at 83% the 4th year, but has regressed to .714 in the NBA).

He was a positive player in both sides off the court by BPM every season in college, including being one of 21 sophmores/freshman to achieve a BPM of +3/+3 in over 800 minutes in 2013. Under those qualifiers there is a good list of NBA players.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2014&year_max=2014&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&c1stat=obpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=3&c2stat=dbpm&c2comp=gt&c2val=3&c3stat=mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=600&order_by=pts

Back to his NBA tenure, he barely played the first 2 season in Portland, just 400 minutes, likely all trash time and took just 71 3's.

Lat season he played 840 minutes in 46 games pre ASB (in 120 calendar days)and 487 minutes 25 games after post ASB in roughly calendar 50 days. Then basically didnt play in the playoffs with other 10 player above him in the rotation.
Really don't seem such a heavy load for a 4 year college product in his third season in the NBA.

The increased playing time helped him to spike in rebounds per possession (8 per100 which is high for a wing and 3 more than the 5 per100 he averaged his first 2 years), but was worse in steal and assists. His FG% also jumped dramatically from the first 2 years, from 30% to above 50%.

When you zoom in 2pt attempts between both periods, he increased the attempts close to the rim from 20% to 40% of his attempts, reducing the long and medium range 2, and finishing at better clip inside 3 feet (from 70% to 75%).
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#88 » by Dewey » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:55 pm

BNM wrote:
Jedzz wrote:
BNM wrote:
Layman - lack of consistency. He could outgrow that with with more PT and a consistent role.

Vonleh - limited offensive skill set. He is, however, a good rebounder and a rock solid defender.

Let's face it, if they were great players, they'd both be making a lot more money. As is, on their current deals, I think Layman is paid fairly and Vonleh is a bargain.


Layman's 3pt numbers don't impress me much. Other than a steep climb up to last season's numbers in both 2s and 3s when his minutes increased over the 4 and 7 mins/game he had his first two seasons. It always seems like a good sign to me when their numbers and efficiency increases as their minutes do. Plenty of player examples where that's not happening. If he continues that trend, his first foray into a season averaging at least 20 mins a game might be another step up. Well see if he can get that much play here.

Layman shot a very respectable .374 3FG% in 46 games prior to the all star break, but an abysmal .224 post all star break. That may be more fatigue related than inconsistency, as he saw his minutes jump from 160 the season before to 1327 last season. He went from averaging 4 MPG in 35 games to almost 19 MPG in 71 games. That was really his first exposure to the grind of a long NBA regular season.

To me it seems the added attention of opposing teams after all-star-break had some influence. Late Feb and early March were likely hawking him on the perimeter.
Flip response to Love wanting out, "He has no reason to be upset, you're either a part of the problem or a part of the solution"
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#89 » by BNM » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:03 pm

Killboard wrote:
BNM wrote:
Jedzz wrote:
Layman's 3pt numbers don't impress me much. Other than a steep climb up to last season's numbers in both 2s and 3s when his minutes increased over the 4 and 7 mins/game he had his first two seasons. It always seems like a good sign to me when their numbers and efficiency increases as their minutes do. Plenty of player examples where that's not happening. If he continues that trend, his first foray into a season averaging at least 20 mins a game might be another step up. Well see if he can get that much play here.


Layman shot a very respectable .374 3FG% in 46 games prior to the all star break, but an abysmal .224 post all star break. That may be more fatigue related than inconsistency, as he saw his minutes jump from 160 the season before to 1327 last season. He went from averaging 4 MPG in 35 games to almost 19 MPG in 71 games. That was really his first exposure to the grind of a long NBA regular season.


Im not sold on fatigue being the cause, but it would be great if he actually is an above average 3pt shooter.
For one, would make his 3 year deal look dirty cheap. It also would help to set a high bar for wing minutes.

But I want to have some insight in his career and will share it here.

He played 4 years in Maryland (Winning 25, 17, 28 and 27 games) and over 30 MPG the last 3 seasons there.
Was a good 3pt shooter (.362) on medium volume (5.6 att per40) and .759 FT% (topped at 83% the 4th year, but has regressed to .714 in the NBA).

He was a positive player in both sides off the court by BPM every season in college, including being one of 21 sophmores/freshman to achieve a BPM of +3/+3 in over 800 minutes in 2013. Under those qualifiers there is a good list of NBA players.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2014&year_max=2014&class_is_fr=Y&class_is_so=Y&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&games_type=A&c1stat=obpm&c1comp=gt&c1val=3&c2stat=dbpm&c2comp=gt&c2val=3&c3stat=mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=600&order_by=pts

Back to his NBA tenure, he barely played the first 2 season in Portland, just 400 minutes, likely all trash time and took just 71 3's.

Lat season he played 840 minutes in 46 games pre ASB (in 120 calendar days)and 487 minutes 25 games after post ASB in roughly calendar 50 days. Then basically didnt play in the playoffs with other 10 player above him in the rotation.
Really don't seem such a heavy load for a 4 year college product in his third season in the NBA.

The increased playing time helped him to spike in rebounds per possession (8 per100 which is high for a wing and 3 more than the 5 per100 he averaged his first 2 years), but was worse in steal and assists. His FG% also jumped dramatically from the first 2 years, from 30% to above 50%.

When you zoom in 2pt attempts between both periods, he increased the attempts close to the rim from 20% to 40% of his attempts, reducing the long and medium range 2, and finishing at better clip inside 3 feet (from 70% to 75%).


Even playing big minutes in college isn't the same as playing in the NBA, the season is ~35 games, starts in mid-November and gets over in mid-March. So, roughly 35 games in a little over 4 months, compared to 82 games in 6 months (plus playoffs) for the NBA. Many NBA rookies hit a rookie wall at about 45 - 50 games. They just aren't used to playing such a long season, no back-to-backs, less travel, etc. It's both physically and mentally more grueling than a college schedule.

Did Layman hit that rookie wall in his 3rd season? Hard to tell, but as you note, he barely played in his first two seasons, and yes, it was almost exclusively garbage time minutes. That's not specific to Layman. It is a pattern of player development Portland has been employing for their second round picks. Practice with the team, play a little garbage time, maybe a short G League stint, your first two seasons, and then graduate to a rotation player in your third season. Allen Crabbe and Pat Connaughton both followed a similar pattern in POR.

As far as more 2FG attempts and a higher 2FG%, I think that is a product of playing with more structure, with better players in a more defined role. NBA garbage time often resembles summer league, with players just looking to get their shots up. Being part of the rotation means running set plays, with better, more experienced players that will set you up and get you the ball in a position to be successful. The Blazers ran a lot of backdoor cuts for Layman last season, with guys like Lillard, Evan Turner and Nurkic throwing him lobs at the rim. Those are very high percentage shots that Layman wasn't getting in garbage time playing with other third stringers. Again, they did the same thing with 3rd year Connaughton.
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Re: Timberwolves sign Jake Layman (sign-and-trade w/Portland) 

Post#90 » by BNM » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:05 pm

Dewey wrote:
BNM wrote:
Jedzz wrote:
Layman's 3pt numbers don't impress me much. Other than a steep climb up to last season's numbers in both 2s and 3s when his minutes increased over the 4 and 7 mins/game he had his first two seasons. It always seems like a good sign to me when their numbers and efficiency increases as their minutes do. Plenty of player examples where that's not happening. If he continues that trend, his first foray into a season averaging at least 20 mins a game might be another step up. Well see if he can get that much play here.

Layman shot a very respectable .374 3FG% in 46 games prior to the all star break, but an abysmal .224 post all star break. That may be more fatigue related than inconsistency, as he saw his minutes jump from 160 the season before to 1327 last season. He went from averaging 4 MPG in 35 games to almost 19 MPG in 71 games. That was really his first exposure to the grind of a long NBA regular season.

To me it seems the added attention of opposing teams after all-star-break had some influence. Late Feb and early March were likely hawking him on the perimeter.


They were also much more mindful of the backdoor cuts and lobs.

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