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Rank the Wolves Off-Season

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Rank the Wolves Off-Season

A
1
2%
B
34
62%
C
14
25%
D
4
7%
F
2
4%
 
Total votes: 55

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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#81 » by Killboard » Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:06 pm

DaKid wrote:
Dewey wrote:
DaKid wrote:The core pretty much stayed the same. The important pieces are all still here. I liked Jones, rose, saric, Gibson and even tolliver. But if retaining them means multi-year contracts, I'm good with them going elsewhere. None of them were pushing the needle for more wins.

Now if Rosas can rid the team of teague's contract in a positive deal, we'd be sitting pretty good


I'm curious who the shots are gonna come from moving forward.

In terms of who we lost, it was not huge but it's gonna take some work to mesh. I think the key will be player buy-in when it comes to accepting more specific roles. If you want minutes ya gotta make an impact with or without the ball...

I think we're about a .500 team when healthy ... not bad for a young team in the west. We have several unknowns


Towns and Wiggins will lead the team in fga. Outside of that, the open man gets the shot. If teague is still here to start the season though, I'm sure he will take plenty of shots himself.



That's a good question.

Wolves are replacing 7344 minutes of Saric, Tyus, Taj, Rose and Tolliver for Vonleh, Layman, Bell, Napier, Graham (5535 minutes last season) and Culver (who would have to play 1800 - or 24 MPG- to be a wash among this groups).

The first group attempted 83 shots per 100 possessions.
The new group attempted 73 shots per 100 possessions with their respective teams last season, and that's without counting Culver.

Napier is close to Rose (21 vs 26 shot attempts per100)
Layman is close to Saric (15 vs 16 shot attempts per100)
Vonleh to Gibson (12 vs 15 shot attempts per100)
Bell to Tolliver (11 vs 11 shot attempts per100)
Graham to Tyus (12 vs 13 shot attempts per100)

The new group attemps fewer shots in each comparison but then you have factor in Culver.

Is interesting the first 3 (Napier, Layman and Vonleh) share their roles with their old counterparts as well.
Bell/Graham vs Tolliver/Tyus dont share any similarites though.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#82 » by DaKid » Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:38 pm

Killboard wrote:
DaKid wrote:
Dewey wrote:
I'm curious who the shots are gonna come from moving forward.

In terms of who we lost, it was not huge but it's gonna take some work to mesh. I think the key will be player buy-in when it comes to accepting more specific roles. If you want minutes ya gotta make an impact with or without the ball...

I think we're about a .500 team when healthy ... not bad for a young team in the west. We have several unknowns


Towns and Wiggins will lead the team in fga. Outside of that, the open man gets the shot. If teague is still here to start the season though, I'm sure he will take plenty of shots himself.



That's a good question.

Wolves are replacing 7344 minutes of Saric, Tyus, Taj, Rose and Tolliver for Vonleh, Layman, Bell, Napier, Graham (5535 minutes last season) and Culver (who would have to play 1800 - or 24 MPG- to be a wash among this groups).

The first group attempted 83 shots per 100 possessions.
The new group attempted 73 shots per 100 possessions with their respective teams last season, and that's without counting Culver.

Napier is close to Rose (21 vs 26 shot attempts per100)
Layman is close to Saric (15 vs 16 shot attempts per100)
Vonleh to Gibson (12 vs 15 shot attempts per100)
Bell to Tolliver (11 vs 11 shot attempts per100)
Graham to Tyus (12 vs 13 shot attempts per100)

The new group attemps fewer shots in each comparison but then you have factor in Culver.

Is interesting the first 3 (Napier, Layman and Vonleh) share their roles with their old counterparts as well.
Bell/Graham vs Tolliver/Tyus dont share any similarites though.


Analytics are great in certain situations. In case of the amount of shots an individual attempts, I don't think you can use analytics. Especially when playing on a different team with other players that may shoot more than players here.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#83 » by Klomp » Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:41 pm

Calinks wrote:
Jedzz wrote:Being honest, I wanted the team to stay exactly the same except for adding new rookie depth from draft. So that we could see if being more healthy they could return to some of the few high level play moments of last season. Alas, it's all different now.

We will see but I don't put us close to the playoffs. West is going to be very competitive. Going into last year I thought there were two elite teams and they like 7 good teams. This season, I don't know if there is an elite team but there are like 8-11 good teams. Going to be a mjor struggle with our roster. Only way I see us making it is if our style of play is just extremely complimentary to our roster and we manage to do something really well.

Like the King with their offense last season (though they still didn't make it). If we could manage to play with a special identity, then maybe we got a chance to squeeze in. Big ask for a team that just had so much turn over though. I don't think its impossible that we could be the worst team in the west even though I think we will be more like third or fourth worst.

I think the 2018-19 Kings are a decent comparison to this year's Wolves.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#84 » by Klomp » Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:48 pm

Killboard wrote:Saric and Tyus were not needle movers but neutral players (which has value), but for his age is reasonable to think they will improve. Wolves essentialy flip them and the 11th pick for Culver and Layman. Not saying Tyus was traded for Layman directly obviously, but that was the output when you take a look to the player wolves have commited now.


Actually, you could essentially say Layman was a part of the draft-night deal since he was slotted directly into the TPE created by the trade.

Saric + 11
for
Culver + Layman

Don't think Tyus really factors in though. He probably would factor in more with the GSW trade, since Napier is part of what made him more expendable.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#85 » by Killboard » Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:01 pm

DaKid wrote:
Killboard wrote:
DaKid wrote:
Towns and Wiggins will lead the team in fga. Outside of that, the open man gets the shot. If teague is still here to start the season though, I'm sure he will take plenty of shots himself.



That's a good question.

Wolves are replacing 7344 minutes of Saric, Tyus, Taj, Rose and Tolliver for Vonleh, Layman, Bell, Napier, Graham (5535 minutes last season) and Culver (who would have to play 1800 - or 24 MPG- to be a wash among this groups).

The first group attempted 83 shots per 100 possessions.
The new group attempted 73 shots per 100 possessions with their respective teams last season, and that's without counting Culver.

Napier is close to Rose (21 vs 26 shot attempts per100)
Layman is close to Saric (15 vs 16 shot attempts per100)
Vonleh to Gibson (12 vs 15 shot attempts per100)
Bell to Tolliver (11 vs 11 shot attempts per100)
Graham to Tyus (12 vs 13 shot attempts per100)

The new group attemps fewer shots in each comparison but then you have factor in Culver.

Is interesting the first 3 (Napier, Layman and Vonleh) share their roles with their old counterparts as well.
Bell/Graham vs Tolliver/Tyus dont share any similarites though.


Analytics are great in certain situations. In case of the amount of shots an individual attempts, I don't think you can use analytics. Especially when playing on a different team with other players that may shoot more than players here.


I think there is a big share of the attempts that are correlated to the style of play enough to call it an individual tendency.
Then you have coaching which can factor in and modify tendencies which clearly exists, but in most cases is a minor adjustment.
I think a coach can have more input in their team by deciding who plays, than what he can change about the type/frequency of the shots a given player takes.

Vonleh for example played for 4 different teams already, and if you remove his rookie season, all the other season he has played is basically the same short chart.

Napier played for 4 different teams, and excluding his rookie season (with Miami) then he always averaged 17 Att per100 (which is pretty high for a backup) then had the support to uptick last season to career high 21 with Brooklyn.

Rose 26 Attempts last season were pretty close to 25 which is his career average, and each season where he recieved gametime was inside of 10% margin (between 28.6 and 23.4) except his rookie season.

It's not set in stone, but is pretty indicative IMO.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#86 » by KGdaBom » Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:05 pm

DaKid wrote:
shrink wrote:We may be starting a rookie. Without veterans, our bench is going to be far weaker than the average team.

We aren’t making the playoffs, but that’s ok. We needed development at multiple positions, and the new young players may show that they have a longterm keeper there.


I have a feeling that unless more moves are made, we are going to see a lot of Teague, Wiggins, Culver, Roco, Towns in the starting lineup with Okogie being the first off the bench

Lineup sounds right with the one question being does Culver start from day one or do we wait a little while.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#87 » by DaKid » Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:06 pm

KGdaBom wrote:
DaKid wrote:
shrink wrote:We may be starting a rookie. Without veterans, our bench is going to be far weaker than the average team.

We aren’t making the playoffs, but that’s ok. We needed development at multiple positions, and the new young players may show that they have a longterm keeper there.


I have a feeling that unless more moves are made, we are going to see a lot of Teague, Wiggins, Culver, Roco, Towns in the starting lineup with Okogie being the first off the bench

Lineup sounds right with the one question being does Culver start from day one or do we wait a little while.


I think that they want Wiggins at sg as much as possible. Culver at 6'7 can play sf next to roco at of and Wiggins at sg. Starting okogie puts Wiggins back at sf for the bulk of his minutes.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#88 » by old school 34 » Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:17 am

DaKid wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:
DaKid wrote:
I have a feeling that unless more moves are made, we are going to see a lot of Teague, Wiggins, Culver, Roco, Towns in the starting lineup with Okogie being the first off the bench

Lineup sounds right with the one question being does Culver start from day one or do we wait a little while.


I think that they want Wiggins at sg as much as possible. Culver at 6'7 can play sf next to roco at of and Wiggins at sg. Starting okogie puts Wiggins back at sf for the bulk of his minutes.
Culver may play SF....when really there's not much difference between SG/SF....but what they're really after is getting the SG to defend Wiggins & regardless of Okogie or Culver paired with Wiggins (can include Graham or Nowell as well)...you won't get that matchup. Only way you'll see that is pairing Wiggins with Roco, Layman, or KBD.....that's what has me starting to lean towards Layman maybe getting that 5th starter spot.....it's the lineup that seems to hit most of the things they've talked about most offseason...then we'll need to see if we can rebound enough? I do wonder though....if it goes that way...could see Okogie get less minutes (probably more appropriate IMO vs. last year)--as I see Culver leap frogging him fairly early becoming then 1st wing off bench.

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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#89 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:34 am

DaKid wrote:I think that they want Wiggins at sg as much as possible. Culver at 6'7 can play sf next to roco at of and Wiggins at sg. Starting okogie puts Wiggins back at sf for the bulk of his minutes.

Culver probably doesn't force defenses to put their SG on Wiggins. Yeah he's taller than Okogie, but he's essentially the same size as Wiggins which allows opponents to essentially pick who they want to defend who. Layman maybe changes that, but the guys who certainly make the decision more interesting for opponents are Covington and Bates-Diop.

And even if it doesn't give Wiggins the better matchup by putting him at SG, odds are it will give a better advantage to someone else.

Just as an example, take a game against Portland. Their most frequent 5 starters last year were Lillard/McCollum/ Harkless/Aminu/Nurkic. Now, let's say Minnesota goes with a starting 5 of Teague/Okogie/Wiggins/Covington/Towns. Aminu may take the toughest matchup in Wiggins, but Portland will gladly play everything else straight-up because McCollum isn't overmatched by Okogie. On the other hand, let's say Minnesota goes bigger on the perimeter with Teague/Wiggins/Bates-Diop/Covington/Towns. If Aminu still takes Wiggins, that gives either Covington or Bates-Diop a considerable size and strength advantage over McCollum. If Portland plays it straight-up, Wiggins has the size advantage over McCollum.

It'll be a similar situation with this year's Warriors, who may choose to simply play things straight up (obviously there's switching usually involved), but to have Russell taking Wiggins rather than Covington or Bates-Diop. Advantage: Wiggins. With Okogie starting, no need for GSW to be concerned about the matchups. Same for Houston, with Westbrook and Harden in the backcourt.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#90 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:42 am

old school 34 wrote:Culver may play SF....when really there's not much difference between SG/SF....but what they're really after is getting the SG to defend Wiggins & regardless of Okogie or Culver paired with Wiggins (can include Graham or Nowell as well)...you won't get that matchup. Only way you'll see that is pairing Wiggins with Roco, Layman, or KBD.....that's what has me starting to lean towards Layman maybe getting that 5th starter spot.....it's the lineup that seems to hit most of the things they've talked about most offseason...then we'll need to see if we can rebound enough? I do wonder though....if it goes that way...could see Okogie get less minutes (probably more appropriate IMO vs. last year)--as I see Culver leap frogging him fairly early becoming then 1st wing off bench.

I'm leaning that way about Layman too, at least in the beginning. Also I think it's good to follow the money. While it wasn't a huge contract, Layman is still the only non-rookie addition who signed for multiple years. That tells me they may value him more than other players they brought in. They were worried about cap flexibility all summer, but didn't seem as worried about it with Layman. Now I know the S/T factors into that decision-making (had to be at least 3 years), but they still pursued him despite knowing that.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#91 » by Killboard » Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:14 pm

Klomp wrote:
Killboard wrote:Saric and Tyus were not needle movers but neutral players (which has value), but for his age is reasonable to think they will improve. Wolves essentialy flip them and the 11th pick for Culver and Layman. Not saying Tyus was traded for Layman directly obviously, but that was the output when you take a look to the player wolves have commited now.


Actually, you could essentially say Layman was a part of the draft-night deal since he was slotted directly into the TPE created by the trade.

Saric + 11
for
Culver + Layman

Don't think Tyus really factors in though. He probably would factor in more with the GSW trade, since Napier is part of what made him more expendable.


I get that Saric TPE was how we acomodated for the S&T (could have been done using the MLE too) so its fair to see it the way you mention, but my point was the Wolves prefered commit to Layman 3.5M for the next 3 years than commit to Tyus (who reportedly wanted something like 4/24 to sign an extension). In that scenario the difference between salaries would have been 2.5M per year.

I think that Layman at 3.5 could be better than Tyus at 6 per year in a vaccum. Both players are close to neutral players, neither has been good shooting so far but have some upside in that (I think Tyus is more ready to figure it out due to age and FT%), both are adequate defenders and have clear roles in offense, so I can understand going with the cheaper option in a vaccum.

Still, when you see how the Wolves roster is constructed I think we needed a PG more than a Wing moving forward
*I think our best player benefits a lot of good PG play
*If one of Teague/Napier miss games the Wolves are going to stink this year
*If we draft a PG next year Tyus would have been the perfect bridge PG. Solid enough to start but not so good to complain about role.
*Tyus at 6 per year could seem a lot more than Napier (who I think will be good for us) for the min, but Napier is severly underpaid too and will get a lot more in FA next season.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#92 » by Jedzz » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:47 pm

Timberwolves ended up 11th in West last season, pretty much tanking it out by sitting everyone for bent finger syndromes. The young players and those they were trying to keep value up on won a couple more games along the way. But otherwise...11th.

Phoenix Suns were last in West (15th).

Will the Timberwolves this season be better or worse than the Suns this year?
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#93 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:07 pm

Better.

I think there's some revisionist history going around about Rubio and the impact he'll have on the young Suns. Lots of talk of how he made the young Wolves better so he'll do the same in Phoenix. But in his entire Minnesota tenure they only finished with 32 or more wins once. I just don't see a massive jump from their 19-win season a year ago. It's on their young players to grow, as they also didn't get a boost from a high-lottery pick (thanks for Culver!).

They'll finish with somewhere around 25-30 wins. An improvement, but I think Minnesota is a step above.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#94 » by shrink » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:17 pm

Klomp wrote:Better.

I think there's some revisionist history going around about Rubio and the impact he'll have on the young Suns. Lots of talk of how he made the young Wolves better so he'll do the same in Phoenix. But in his entire Minnesota tenure they only finished with 32 or more wins once. I just don't see a massive jump from their 19-win season a year ago. It's on their young players to grow, as they also didn't get a boost from a high-lottery pick (thanks for Culver!).

They'll finish with somewhere around 25-30 wins. An improvement, but I think Minnesota is a step above.

There were a lot of injuries going on, his and other players, that sunk their overall record. Better to look at the Wolves stats when he was on the floor, before Thibs relegated him to three point shooter.

I agree that the Suns have a long way to go, but Rubio will help
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#95 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:26 pm

shrink wrote:There were a lot of injuries going on, his and other players, that sunk their overall record. Better to look at the Wolves stats when he was on the floor, before Thibs relegated him to three point shooter.

I agree that the Suns have a long way to go, but Rubio will help

I'm not talking about just the Thibs year, I'm talking his whole career here. Take 2015-16, for example. The team was mostly healthy the whole year, still only 29 wins. Needed a historic, MVP-caliber season from Love to get over 32 wins and they were still below .500. So sure, if Booker or Ayton play like an MVP this year, they'll make my prediction look foolish. I'll play the odds though, I like my chances.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#96 » by Jedzz » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:27 pm

Klomp wrote:Better.

I think there's some revisionist history going around about Rubio and the impact he'll have on the young Suns. Lots of talk of how he made the young Wolves better so he'll do the same in Phoenix. But in his entire Minnesota tenure they only finished with 32 or more wins once. I just don't see a massive jump from their 19-win season a year ago. It's on their young players to grow, as they also didn't get a boost from a high-lottery pick (thanks for Culver!).

They'll finish with somewhere around 25-30 wins. An improvement, but I think Minnesota is a step above.


At the moment, I'm not sure where Minnesota will end up because I still don't know things such as whether Wiggins will be taking the lionshare of shots again, and if he will be looking the exact same again, or not. Will they allow a second round pick a chance? Things I can't answer right now.

However for the Suns, I see a massive climb coming. From 19-32 would be massive. I believe it might be even more. When Rubio was with the Wolves, it was the Love show and our wins came and went with Love's shot warmth. The very short Skull Collector era made three players but quickly ended. Then adding Wiggins and insta starting him, I think we can understand where the wins didn't come from. When the Wolves had Rubio, Lavine, Wiggins and Towns that team was capable of scoring at an immense level. It was their defense and commitment that was nonexistent, and it wasn't Rubio who was the defensive or commitment weakness. Rubio will have the very best shooter of college last season as the Suns new draft addition. That's not too shabby as one of the returns for Culver. Rubio will also be feeding another decent shooter in Saric. Between Rubio and Saric, I see those two both feeding Booker, Ayton, and their new draft pick. Defense might again be the Suns issue. Poor Rubio.

Poor us if this offseason and coming decisions don't elevate the Wolves enough to keep the Suns down. We are still in search of a team willing to play decent shooters.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#97 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:34 pm

The last four seasons, Phoenix has never recorded over 24 wins.
The last four seasons, Minnesota has never recorded under 29 wins.

See the difference? Even if Minnesota regresses some and Phoenix improves some, there's still a large gap between Phoenix's 19-63 record and Minnesota's 36-46 record from a season ago. The gap may narrow, but it'll take a lot for Phoenix to completely pass us up.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#98 » by shrink » Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:21 pm

Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:There were a lot of injuries going on, his and other players, that sunk their overall record. Better to look at the Wolves stats when he was on the floor, before Thibs relegated him to three point shooter.

I agree that the Suns have a long way to go, but Rubio will help

I'm not talking about just the Thibs year, I'm talking his whole career here. Take 2015-16, for example. The team was mostly healthy the whole year, still only 29 wins. Needed a historic, MVP-caliber season from Love to get over 32 wins and they were still below .500.

I have no idea what year you are talking about. Love was gone in 2015-16. In 2015-16, both Kevin Martin or Garnett missed more than half the season, and Pek played only 12 games.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#99 » by Klomp » Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:35 pm

shrink wrote:
Klomp wrote:
shrink wrote:There were a lot of injuries going on, his and other players, that sunk their overall record. Better to look at the Wolves stats when he was on the floor, before Thibs relegated him to three point shooter.

I agree that the Suns have a long way to go, but Rubio will help

I'm not talking about just the Thibs year, I'm talking his whole career here. Take 2015-16, for example. The team was mostly healthy the whole year, still only 29 wins. Needed a historic, MVP-caliber season from Love to get over 32 wins and they were still below .500.

I have no idea what year you are talking about. Love was gone in 2015-16. In 2015-16, both Kevin Martin or Garnett missed more than half the season, and Pek played only 12 games.

My post is talking about two different seasons. 29 wins in 2015-16. The Love season was two years earlier. Top 5 in MVP voting with healthy roster, still under .500.

As for your point about 2015-16 injuries, you're forgetting about the midseason transactions. Martin was a little more dinged up than I remembered, but still played roughly 2/3rds of the games he was on the roster (waived late February). Garnett was only a part-time player (24 mpg tops) and Pekovic was going to be even less so backing up Towns (17 mpg tops). Those three and rookie Bjelica were the only ones to really miss considerable time.
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Re: Rank the Wolves Off-Season 

Post#100 » by Jedzz » Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:11 am

Klomp wrote:The last four seasons, Phoenix has never recorded over 24 wins.
The last four seasons, Minnesota has never recorded under 29 wins.

See the difference? Even if Minnesota regresses some and Phoenix improves some, there's still a large gap between Phoenix's 19-63 record and Minnesota's 36-46 record from a season ago. The gap may narrow, but it'll take a lot for Phoenix to completely pass us up.


Sure, Minnesota can count on three Thibs seasons of those 4 seasons. But we already dumped all those players he brought in that elevated our record. We've also dumped one of the players from the Butler trade. To try and assume anything about this team right now is fairly difficult for me.

The first two of the last four seasons included Rubio. I'll tell you why we weren't higher in those seasons. Because neither Kat, Lavine or Wiggins played much of any defense. Both Wiggins and KAT were major minute starters. That's why we weren't in the 40 wins range with just them and Rubio. But there was also so much more to those seasons holding them back.

Go back to 2014-15 and find a 16 win season. That's the season the Wiggin's era began and he was insta start from day 1.
The season before Rubio and Love had 40 wins. All the losing started with the Wiggins era. But let's not forget the Chase budingers, Adreian Paynes, the Lorenzo Browns, and even having to pick up Onauku because we couldn't finish the season with enough healthy players. See > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arinze_Onuaku
On April 7, 2015, Onuaku signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves for the rest of the season to help the team deal with numerous injuries. Minnesota had to use an NBA hardship exemption in order to sign him as he made their roster stand at 16,


You mentioned 2015 as being completely healthy when responding to shrink. 2015-16? Are you going to hold 2015 against Rubio? Forget that Wiggins, Towns, Lavine still weren't playing any defense, Flip died in late October, wasn't it?

In 2016-17, Rubio had to contend with the Dunn issue, on top of the Tyus issue, and feed players like Rush who was actually somehow slightly positive as far as Wolves shooters go. Even the short Casspi signing in the spring felt like a 2 fold boost in pro player validity on the team.

The roster depth was an atrocious mess from 2014 through 2016 seasons. Thibs elevated the record by bringing in Vets that would work both sides of the court more. It didn't happen until 2017-18 when he made his trades. Rubio's remaining value, though questioned by us all, helped make some of that happen.

I do believe Rubio is going to a good situation because of the shooters they have there. It might be the best collection of shooters he's had yet. I don't think their defense is going to be good enough, but they are going to score a lot. I have a feeling that when the Wolves meet the Suns it is going to feel a lot like the Utah games we've had lately.
These are my opinions.

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