Constructing the Timberwolves rotation

[Baseline81]

I really dont get it. Is like some people didnt watch him play this past years or something.
A 30yo player in his prime in a team that needs to win right away... Did i forgot to say how impactul this guy is on the court?

Yeah, lets put him in the bench on a 24 minutes per game leash.

And yet, some of the same people were suggesting to trade the whole village + picks to get 30yo Jrue Holiday.
Im not even saying that Rubio is better than Jrue, well... For what Jrue cost, i rather have Rubio for sure.

In Moore's latest podcast, he and Krawczynski say Rubio will come off the bench -- it's not who starts but who finishes. That's not to say they are correct, though they are closer to the organization than us.

Around the 38:50 mark:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jon-krawczynski-on-what-timberwolves-did-did-not-do/id1399177286?i=1000500917215

[TheZachAttack]

Still think we do not have enough "shooting" in our projected rotation, especially with the system that we want to play. I think this fan base (and a little bit our front office) is missing that the biggest difference between the Rockets/Mavs and the Wolves (which should be the team mold that we are trying to follow based on trying to optimize our system and our best players) is the shooting ability of our role players.

Towns/Beasley/D lo are actually the best shooting "top 3" and the most efficient scoring "top 3" of the 3 teams (Houston - Westbrook/Harden/Gordon) and Dallas (Porzingis/Luka/Hardaway). The biggest difference between the two teams is the fact that Dallas's 4-9 shot 40+% from 3 and they only had 1 below average 3 point shooter in their depth rotation. Houston's rates were slightly lower than that, but similar and again they hardly play a player in their depth rotation that isn't an above average 3 point shooter.

The Wolves had like 1-2 players in their rotation outside of their big 3 who were reliably average or above average shooters (Jauncho/J Mac) and cumulatively shot roughly 30% from 3, despite taking similar volume to the Dallas/Houston role players. I did a deep dive on this with exact numbers (and am now recalling from memory), but if you normalized our role players 3 point shooting to Houston we would be as efficient as Houston/Dallas and if you normalized to Dallas... we'd be the most efficient offense in the league.

Houston and Dallas both ranked in the 15-20 range in terms of DRTG as well while ranking 1-2 in ORTG. The Wolves realistically have a roster that could reach that range, especially when competing and not being a tanking team (evidence by stretches of good defensive play to begin seasons or after trades when they are still roughly in contention or have a reason to play hard). With the Wolves roster the most realistic way to optimize given the limitations of the Wolves top players, is to maximize their offense and work to become average to below average on defense. It is a little bit disappointing to see that the Wolves have, to some degree, missed the ball and are trying to focus on bringing in defensive players who are non-shooters as role players.

Given the limitations of the players that we rely on, it's not likely that any influx of role playing talent will push us to any elite levels of D... but it's much more realistic to think that we can become average to below average on the defensive end and score at a similar efficiency to Dallas/Houston on the offensive end (given the system that we play offensively and what that means for the defensive end).

[KGdaBom]

People are worrying too much about the minutes per game. If we're winning, they won't care.

One thing I heard Rosas mention was how much the team wants to get up and down the court, playing uptempo. I think we could see a team playing even faster than last year's squad that finished fourth in pace. Milwaukee led the league in pace, and Antetokounmpo was the team's only player to average over 30 mpg (30.4). Could easily see something like that happen here, with more balanced minutes across the board to keep guys fresh.

I appreciate your thought here, but Rubio playing less minutes is not conducive to winning games.

[Klomp]

People are worrying too much about the minutes per game. If we're winning, they won't care.

One thing I heard Rosas mention was how much the team wants to get up and down the court, playing uptempo. I think we could see a team playing even faster than last year's squad that finished fourth in pace. Milwaukee led the league in pace, and Antetokounmpo was the team's only player to average over 30 mpg (30.4). Could easily see something like that happen here, with more balanced minutes across the board to keep guys fresh.

I appreciate your thought here, but Rubio playing less minutes is not conducive to winning games.

So it's better to wear him down to where injuries are more likely?

[KGdaBom]

People are worrying too much about the minutes per game. If we're winning, they won't care.

One thing I heard Rosas mention was how much the team wants to get up and down the court, playing uptempo. I think we could see a team playing even faster than last year's squad that finished fourth in pace. Milwaukee led the league in pace, and Antetokounmpo was the team's only player to average over 30 mpg (30.4). Could easily see something like that happen here, with more balanced minutes across the board to keep guys fresh.

I appreciate your thought here, but Rubio playing less minutes is not conducive to winning games.

So it's better to wear him down to where injuries are more likely?

Those are unbelievably unrelated things. I expect better from you. 30 MPG is not something that should wear down any professional athlete except for the very large ones who's own weight wears them down.

[Jedzz]

The way you put it makes a lot of sense. Great post.

I actually am not convinced there is any reasoning to explain the choice in the post.

I think of him now more like Rajon Rondo was to the Lakers. Wasn't starting, but he was there to do his thing whenever he was needed and he didn't disappoint. I think the point made about him always working so hard on both ends is a good one, yet it means his minutes should maybe aim for a max of 25. Taking him out of the starting role and first few minutes is a good way to limit that and could help them work him into lineups where he fits best. Locking him into a starting gig limits the creative ways to get him best involved to me.

25mpg is not enough. You are missing out on way too many minutes of excellent play. He was able to play 31mpg and be EXTREMELY impactful last year (PIPM had him as a top 20 player, RPM-wins as top 30, etc)

They didn't make the playoffs either.
I don't discount what he can do. But I think the point you made about how hard he's always worked every minute on both ends is actually a great point for dropping those minutes to the 25 range. The teams roster being what it is now is the reasoning I'm using to play if off bench where ever and whenever they can. But if you are going to lock him into the starting gig then instantly he has to be on the floor to start the game, start the third and with the other starters. It all just limits the roster possibles. Maybe you save game starts for him for when the opponent seems to call for it and otherwise don't.

But this seems much like what happened when he was he first time around. Nobody would accept him playing from bench and it limited how the team could improve itself while keeping him.

[Klomp]

But this seems much like what happened when he was he first time around. Nobody would accept him playing from bench and it limited how the team could improve itself while keeping him.

Fans don't make personnel decisions. Who fans think should start really doesn't matter.

[Klomp]

Worth noting, Rosas has talked this year about the importance to find more two-way players. Ricky is one of the few we have.

And while Russell and Rubio are both PGs first, they both have the size/length to cover if they have to share the floor....neither is limited to PG-only duties on defense.

[_AIJ_]

You guys heard about KAT lately?


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[Jedzz]

But this seems much like what happened when he was he first time around. Nobody would accept him playing from bench and it limited how the team could improve itself while keeping him.

Fans don't make personnel decisions. Who fans think should start really doesn't matter.

Hmm, maybe should be like that. However, when a mass of people begin to roar this team appears to sometimes listen. The team itself makes decisions on how it will expect the team to react and impact things such as ticket sales. They may for example Max a former #1 even if he doesn't even slightly deserve it. Maybe it just appears this way and it's more about maintaining trade values with fake pay, fake playing time etc.

[Jedzz]

You guys heard about KAT lately?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nothing. You?

[KGdaBom]

I actually am not convinced there is any reasoning to explain the choice in the post.

I think of him now more like Rajon Rondo was to the Lakers. Wasn't starting, but he was there to do his thing whenever he was needed and he didn't disappoint. I think the point made about him always working so hard on both ends is a good one, yet it means his minutes should maybe aim for a max of 25. Taking him out of the starting role and first few minutes is a good way to limit that and could help them work him into lineups where he fits best. Locking him into a starting gig limits the creative ways to get him best involved to me.

25mpg is not enough. You are missing out on way too many minutes of excellent play. He was able to play 31mpg and be EXTREMELY impactful last year (PIPM had him as a top 20 player, RPM-wins as top 30, etc)

They didn't make the playoffs either.
I don't discount what he can do. But I think the point you made about how hard he's always worked every minute on both ends is actually a great point for dropping those minutes to the 25 range. The teams roster being what it is now is the reasoning I'm using to play if off bench where ever and whenever they can. But if you are going to lock him into the starting gig then instantly he has to be on the floor to start the game, start the third and with the other starters. It all just limits the roster possibles. Maybe you save game starts for him for when the opponent seems to call for it and otherwise don't.

But this seems much like what happened when he was he first time around. Nobody would accept him playing from bench and it limited how the team could improve itself while keeping him.

I guess the NBA should follow suit with the NHL and have three lines and play in shifts changing on the fly.

[Heimdal]

Ryan Saunders' answer about playing 3 guards was very telling (min 19:54):
"Are you going to play 3 guards at the same time?"

"To answer your question, yes. We talked long and hard about multiple ballhandlers. We want guys who can put the ball on the floor, getting in the paint, guys making plays for others, who can play a more read and react system [...] Ricky's ability to do that helps us. 1, 2, 3 I consider 2 and 3 very similar offensively, [...] 1, 2 , and 3 to me are the same, even the 4 at times"

Isn't it obvious his starting unit and core is Rubio / Russell / Beasley or Edwards / XXXXX / Towns?

Read on Twitter

[Jedzz]

Ryan Saunders' answer about playing 3 guards was very telling (min 19:54):
"Are you going to play 3 guards at the same time?"

"To answer your question, yes. We talked long and hard about multiple ballhandlers. We want guys who can put the ball on the floor, getting in the paint, guys making plays for others, who can play a more read and react system [...] Ricky's ability to do that helps us. 1, 2, 3 I consider 2 and 3 very similar offensively, [...] 1, 2 , and 3 to me are the same, even the 4 at times"

Isn't it obvious his starting unit and core is Rubio / Russell / Beasley or Edwards / XXXXX / Towns?

Read on Twitter

Yeah, well. That's also then not going to be anywhere near 48 minutes of the best possible ballhandlers/point guards always on the floor. Not if they are spending a lot of time playing together. Rosas' prior statement. Unless maybe they plan on adding Jmac. Thanks for the twitter link. Was waiting to see that. Ryan sounded pretty high on Ed.

[Jedzz]

I think Rubio is going to feel supremely more confident around here now.

As I get older I keep running into instances later now where I do something I tried doing years ago or come back to a place I was at years ago and this later second time around seems to come so much more naturally. Even if it didn't go so well the first time, it just seems like something stuck from the first time and coming back to it after a period of time just seems so much better. I'm not sure if I'm making sense with this, but I think Ricky's going to come back at a level we've never seen and maybe he's never seen yet.

[KGdaBom]

I think Rubio is going to feel supremely more confident around here now.

As I get older I keep running into instances later now where I do something I tried doing years ago or come back to a place I was at years ago and this later second time around seems to come so much more naturally. Even if it didn't go so well the first time, it just seems like something stuck from the first time and coming back to it after a period of time just seems so much better. I'm not sure if I'm making sense with this, but I think Ricky's going to come back at a level we've never seen and maybe he's never seen yet.

I fully get what you're saying.

[Killboard]

Dlo off ball:

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Dlo heat check:

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[old school 34]

I really dont get it. Is like some people didnt watch him play this past years or something.
A 30yo player in his prime in a team that needs to win right away... Did i forgot to say how impactul this guy is on the court?

Yeah, lets put him in the bench on a 24 minutes per game leash.

And yet, some of the same people were suggesting to trade the whole village + picks to get 30yo Jrue Holiday.
Im not even saying that Rubio is better than Jrue, well... For what Jrue cost, i rather have Rubio for sure.

In Moore's latest podcast, he and Krawczynski say Rubio will come off the bench -- it's not who starts but who finishes. That's not to say they are correct, though they are closer to the organization than us.

Around the 38:50 mark:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jon-krawczynski-on-what-timberwolves-did-did-not-do/id1399177286?i=1000500917215

Way too soon to get too over the top about minutes...but in same pod fwiw...they talked about Rubio playing a similar role that Schroder played last year for OKC...off bench but closing games...playing 28-30 minutes most nights...seems about right to me?

Same pod...says they really prefer getting JMac back but feel really confident their standing offer is fair market value...could see him still on the tail end of the rotation still & extremely important assuming neither Rubio or DLo will play all 72.

They don't see where Culver is going to get any run.

Last thing on the pod that they made a point about...don't forget about the pf's that they talked about trading for-- AG, Tucker, & Nance...very much feel like they could circle back with those guys as the season moves on. KG would be elated & I've felt there's never been a shot of landing Nance...so your telling me there's a chance ...I might have to get on board (actually love him as a player...just was always convinced Cavs wouldn't deal him).

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[minimus]

People are worrying too much about the minutes per game.

This. NBA already reported three covid cases, two in GSW and one WAS. I think having extra depth might be more important than we think.

[KGdaBom]

Dlo off ball:

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Dlo heat check:

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Those are some great Russell highlights.