The Rise of Napier

[Jedzz]

Getting a stretch of starts as sole PG in rotations, he's really led the charge. I think it's helped the team to settle on one PG per rotation. But his play itself consistently now over the past 4 consecutive starts is shockingly high.

Dec 30-2019: 34 mins. 44/50/71 (24 pts)
Jan. 01-2020: 31 mins.. 54/57/100 (22 pts)
Jan. 02-2020: 33 mins. 78/50/67 (20 pts)
Jan. 05-2010: 30 mins. 80/67/100 (21 pts)

That's a 64/56/85 average on 12.5 FGA and 5 3FGA in past four starts! Also, avging 6.3 assists, 3.5 boards, 1.5 steals, .5 blocks. How many starting PGs are showing this? How many Timberwolves players have ever looked this consistently high level in consecutive games? Consistency has always been our struggle. Do you find this as amazing as I do?

[wolves_89]

Coming into the season I fully expected Napier to outperform Teague and was disappointed when Shabazz got off to such a slow start. I'm really happy to see him breaking out of his slump and putting up some great performances. I don't think he can maintain quite the level he's been at over the last stretch of games, but he's clearly the best PG on the team and should be getting starter minutes (32-34 minutes a game).

[Jedzz]

Coming into the season I fully expected Napier to outperform Teague and was disappointed when Shabazz got off to such a slow start. I'm really happy to see him breaking out of his slump and putting up some great performances. I don't think he can maintain quite the level he's been at over the last stretch of games, but he's clearly the best PG on the team and should be getting starter minutes (32-34 minutes a game).

Why do you say he had a slow start? Besides the injury missed games that is?

Wondering if you notice the difference for him between starting as the sole PG in a rotation and playing as he did before this in the season often as the second PG in the same rotation? The team has started Teague, used Point Wiggins for a stretch, forced Culver as the PG either starting or as the second rotation PG and all this in 35 games. Napier has been held below them all as a third PG or a side car shooting guard to these others. Just wondering if you see this now as a difference in usage.

This summer people were pointing out his stats and the stats of the PG/player he was teamed with during his prior seasons. Apparently he's done a lot of teaming up in the past and it looks like we tried the same with him. But I think this is entirely different now.

[wolves_89]

Coming into the season I fully expected Napier to outperform Teague and was disappointed when Shabazz got off to such a slow start. I'm really happy to see him breaking out of his slump and putting up some great performances. I don't think he can maintain quite the level he's been at over the last stretch of games, but he's clearly the best PG on the team and should be getting starter minutes (32-34 minutes a game).

Why do you say he had a slow start? Besides the injury missed games that is?

He shot 23.5% on 3s with a TS% of 46% through December. That seems like a slow start for a guy with a career 3pt% of around 35% and a career TS% of 52.6%.

[Jedzz]

Why do you say he had a slow start? Besides the injury missed games that is?

He shot 23.5% on 3s with a TS% of 46% through December. That seems like a slow start for a guy with a career 3pt% of around 35% and a career TS% of 52.6%.

I'm wondering if you recognize how far down the depth he was earlier?

Aside from that, he missed 12 games to injury in November, then they slowly worked him back in for the next 9 games in December with low minutes from 8 to 20 playing as the Robin to other PG's that were given the Batman role in the same rotation.

The usage and results have been entirely different now. Wouldn't you say?

I would say his first 6 games weren't steller, each around 20 minutes. Only two good games in the first 6. (40/50/100 and 40/33/100) Then the injury. I guess I'm not really interested in his role as the third or fourth guard from earlier. If the team knew he was capable of what he's proving right now, I don't think they would have played anyone before him. I just hope he can keep pushing this. He has risen to a new height.

[Jedzz]

Would anyone argue it's maybe just been the level of opponents these past 4 games, resting stars or tanking?

[Calinks]

I had a feeling he would be better than Tyus but he let me down horribly. Lately I think he has had a better stretch than Tyus has ever had. He doesn't bring the defense or same level of game management skills but he is way more reliable right now hen it comes to getting buckets.

[Jedzz]

I had a feeling he would be better than Tyus but he let me down horribly. Lately I think he has had a better stretch than Tyus has ever had. He doesn't bring the defense or same level of game management skills but he is way more reliable right now hen it comes to getting buckets.

Oh I think now he's definitely reached a height Tyus never knocked on the door of. Tyus here was a high IQ, low mistakes player, and then of course the steals that were part of his IQ awareness. He was special in that regard. Tyus also has 40 career starts in one less year than Napiers 31. I think it might be safe to say Napiers been stuck even further down the depth charts than even Tyus was over the years.

At this point I wouldn't expect him to keep up the same averages if they slide him back to less than 20 minutes and playing with Teague or supporting a Culver led rotation or something. It's how he's leading beyond his shooting that is so utterly impressive and condusive for those around him. Dieng's charge has coincided somewhat with this. Culver has leaped up. Martin isn't asked to carry every possessions shot anymore so it takes a little pressure off his minutes. Covington also revving up lately offensively. Seems to be helping everyone get better looks. His drive and dish is very effective because his finish at the net has been so effective. These aren't things we can compare with Tyus. Tyus also couldn't fight through the screens that Napier has been, not for the lack of trying of course.

[Jedzz]

Interesting you bring up Tyus. Because I think that this is one thing about Napiers career so far. He's been held to really low minutes for someone who just showed what he did the last few games. And Tyus was always someone I, and others, kind of felt needed more chances. Yet he was never really looked at like someone that was going to be tested as a possible future starter at Wolves.

But Tyus in 4.5 seasons now has 5,102 minutes in 284 ganes, while Napier in 5.5 seasons has only 5,111 minutes in 311 games. A difference of only 9 minutes, even though Napier has 27 more games in. I think it shows how little a chance he's really been given on his prior teams.

[shrink]

I rarely watch NASCAR, so this will probably be my only racing analogy.

Right now, watching Shabazz Napier play reminds me of a the only driver that gets fresh tires with 15 laps left.

[karch34]

Would anyone argue it's maybe just been the level of opponents these past 4 games, resting stars or tanking?

I think you can't discount opponents. I also think PG on bad teams or teams without other options can have inflated scoring numbers (remember the Mike James signing). Then again some PG didn't break out until their mid 20s (Nash and Lowry), while Napier is late 20s the getting a greater role and thriving is similar. Small sample set and we'll know more as season goes on but definitely worth getting him more PT and seeing if he's one of those unexpected guys that wind up being an important piece.

[Klomp]

Interesting you bring up Tyus. Because I think that this is one thing about Napiers career so far. He's been held to really low minutes for someone who just showed what he did the last few games. And Tyus was always someone I, and others, kind of felt needed more chances. Yet he was never really looked at like someone that was going to be tested as a possible future starter at Wolves.

But Tyus in 4.5 seasons now has 5,102 minutes in 284 ganes, while Napier in 5.5 seasons has only 5,111 minutes in 311 games. A difference of only 9 minutes, even though Napier has 27 more games in. I think it shows how little a chance he's really been given on his prior teams.

Is he better than the chance he's been given over the years? Quite possibly. Is he some surging star that was simply never given a chance by other teams to show his superstar talent that he's now showing for the first time at 28 years old? Highly unlikely.

His value likely lies somewhere between being a 20 mpg supersub and a lower-level starting PG. Right now, he's playing on the higher end of his value.

[Jedzz]

Interesting you bring up Tyus. Because I think that this is one thing about Napiers career so far. He's been held to really low minutes for someone who just showed what he did the last few games. And Tyus was always someone I, and others, kind of felt needed more chances. Yet he was never really looked at like someone that was going to be tested as a possible future starter at Wolves.

But Tyus in 4.5 seasons now has 5,102 minutes in 284 ganes, while Napier in 5.5 seasons has only 5,111 minutes in 311 games. A difference of only 9 minutes, even though Napier has 27 more games in. I think it shows how little a chance he's really been given on his prior teams.

Is he better than the chance he's been given over the years? Quite possibly. Is he some surging star that was simply never given a chance by other teams to show his superstar talent that he's now showing for the first time at 28 years old? Highly unlikely.

His value likely lies somewhere between being a 20 mpg supersub and a lower-level starting PG. Right now, he's playing on the higher end of his value.

Playing on the higher end of his value? The value range you gave him chance at? So you are saying he's playing at the "lower-level starting PG" high end ceiling you gave him?

Do tell, how many PGs in the NBA in the past 5 years have shot like he has in a 4 game stretch. Focus on the shooting If that makes it easier, but shooting doesn't tell the whole picture of these past four games either. I'm just not that good at searching out stats or I would have tried to find something to compare it to. There probably are some...maybe. Are they star types, or bench fodder examples of two week stretches of grace?

If we are focusing on this 4 game stretch, I know it's a heck of a lot higher than lower level starting PG. You describing it as such leads me to further believe earlier in his career it might have been preexisting thoughts on him that slotted his roles/minutes in the past. Small size, later frp slot = low ceiling backup fodder. IE: Tyus treatment.

Plenty of players have an insane game now and then, or maybe once a career. (Brewer 50pts game, Exum's 4th quarter in Cleveland game). But it's pretty rare for a nobody depth guy to average 64/56/85 in 4 consecutive games. Wouldn't you agree?

Isn't it possible that at this point in his career, and in this specific system, it could be the perfect timing to get the best out of him?

[Jedzz]

Would anyone argue it's maybe just been the level of opponents these past 4 games, resting stars or tanking?

I think you can't discount opponents. I also think PG on bad teams or teams without other options can have inflated scoring numbers (remember the Mike James signing). Then again some PG didn't break out until their mid 20s (Nash and Lowry), while Napier is late 20s the getting a greater role and thriving is similar. Small sample set and we'll know more as season goes on but definitely worth getting him more PT and seeing if he's one of those unexpected guys that wind up being an important piece.

I agree. I think it's important to find out by adjusting whatever they were planning to allow the possibility to play out. But yes it could be jsut that he's a solid IQ player taking advantage of a stretch of opponents not showing us their best. However, seeing a wolves player outside Towns play that high is unnatural.

[Jedzz]

As quickly as he rises when playing 30 mins, he falls when they start taking his minutes away and giving shorter runs of time. The starts seem really fake again the last two to three games. Teague getting more minutes from off bench.