KGdaBom wrote:Klomp wrote:Beasley has been a bit like Gorgui in that he plays better the more minutes he plays.
In 18 starts last year (averaging 31 mpg), he averaged just under 16 ppg and shot 50% from 3-point range (on 6 attempts per game). Obviously that percentage won't hold, but remember he's practically doubled that volume in his 3 games here (11 attempts per game). Lower efficiency at 42%, but that's still crazy good at that volume.
10 players averaging eight 3PApg this season. Two of them are shooting 40%. Neither of them are guards (Davis Bertans, Duncan Robinson). The high-water mark for guards on crazy volume this season seems to be 39%: Lillard, Hield, Kemba (throw in LaVine, VanVleet, McCollum if you lower the threshold to seven 3PApg). Also keep in mind JJ Redick only has one season where he averaged over seven 3PApg (2018-19, 39.7%).
Beasley is putting up these types of shooting numbers at 23 years old. That youth combined with that type of shooting potential when he gets an opportunity, you're dreaming if you think he'll settle for $10 million in this current NBA landscape that is desperate for shooting.
If he maintains 42% on threes at 8 or more per game and isn't a total sieve on D I will be the first in line to say pay the man. However, we don't need to bid against ourselves for his services. If he's great the rest of the season not just scoring, but scoring efficiently and playing D we can offer him 15 mill a year. If he is only decent the rest of the year 10 million a year is fair. If those numbers aren't acceptable to him he can accept his best offer and we can match if we feel like it. Denver who should know him far better than we did wasn't willing to pay him more than $10 million a year and gave up his rights along with Hernangomez and Vanderbilt for a late first round draft pick. I'm hopeful about Beasley, but very far from convinced that he is anything special.
Denver was willing to offer him 10 million a year to be a rotation wing with minutes in the 20's.
The price point on that is going to be different than what you offer a starting 2 playing 32+ mins a night.
They have a lot of money tied up in Gary Harris and WIll Barton on the wing in addition to paying Jokic and Murray the max, along with a lot of depth whose contracts will be expiring.
The fact that they were willing to offer 4/40 says a lot about how they valued him, because that is a very smart front office willing to tie up 4/40 in a non-starter. Gary Harris is also always injured and his production has fallen off a cliff.
That they were willing to trade Beasley for a late 1st says that they didnt think 4/40 would get it done this summer, and with their salary concerns they couldnt afford to go beyond that range and still fill out the rest of the team.
This will a good summer to re-sign a RFA. Not many teams have cap room. But all it takes is one team.
12-15/year is the going rate for a league average wing, and if he does well 3/45 or 4/60 might be the cost.
It's only been 3 games, but he's shown more grit and defense than I'd thought, and more aggression taking it to the rack.
If he can keep shooting around 40% on 3's and show growth in the system while maintaining the energy and grit that he's shown so far, I'd feel comfortable paying him up to 15 mil/year.
