Jedzz wrote:Baseline81 wrote:Jedzz wrote:I saw that post where you alerted us all to your Obi hate. Sure.
I would have said the exact same thing if it was a thread on Okongwu, Okoro or someone else not being heavily considered for the first overall pick.
Whether you subscribe or adhere to this draft process is irrelevant. The "fictitious" values laid upon these picks/prospects are real --
These are not real in terms of building a team up from garbage to a winner.
Ask youself how the Heat dared putting a roster together with undrafted players with high minutes and starting, others with draft history of pick #13 or pick #30 starring for them in the playoffs. Can you honestly see the Timberwolves ever doing this even for more than one individual much less 4 to 5 of their playing roster? Would you imagine this was better for the Heat's team value, all their player's values, all their sales income? Could the team that started Wiggins for 35 minutes every game over 5 years regardless of play and then maxed him ever, ever, allow the actual best players to earn starting gigs and high minutes and help them become a finals team? It cannot happen until you see the draft and it's fake player values for the joke that it is.
Think of the best actual players the team made positive trades with lately. He was an undrafted RoCo. Before him it was #13 LaVine. Wolves had to sell Wiggins plus a high FRP to get Dlo. Basically a peak playing Kevin Love plus a #1 overall plus a high 2021 frp for the former 2015 #2 pick. We are going backwards with this value stuff just trying to play that side game and wasting years and players along the way.
Even now, many disregard Beasley's value because of his former draft history more than any other reason. Not for what he's earned from the bench playing on up. They would just as soon let him walk as they were fine seeing LaVine get traded before Wiggins.
Stop believing so much in the draft values. Better yet, forget it exists as anything. Focus on who the players are. The team won't be any worse for it.
This is a great post and is a point that isn't considered very often. Many teams make a high pick and then chase their losses for years, crippling their franchise and keeping them on a set path of mediocrity. If you're a bad team looking for your franchise savior, it generally doesn't come through the top of the draft (we just get tied up in confirmation bias and ignore the much higher volume of misses).
If you get a top pick AND it's a franchise changing player, the pressure is then on to surround them with enough talent to contend, or else that player will just leave on their 3rd contract and you're back to rebuilding. Teams that draft well (Spurs/Heat) have no pressure on their picks, because they only have to evaluate their actual value on the court. They aren't stuck paying high rookie contracts, which means those players only get play time if they can produce and give value to the team NOW.
When you're constantly picking high in the draft in this one and done era, you're more often than not stuck with having to develop high potential players in systems that lack the consistency and stability to do so properly. If those players end up reaching any of their potential, the benefit usually goes to their next team (or their third if they are traded for their expiring contract and the 2nd team is just trying to clear cap space). I like Rosas' approach that is more similar to moneyball, where he is looking for maximum value in output for the price, rather than doing the standard Minnesota Loser Mentality of vastly overpaying players, because of not being a great place to live during the winter (which is partially true, but often overblown by external bias which will not change no matter how great the Twin Cities can be).
In this draft, if they don't swing for someone like Wiseman with the top pick, I'd rather they just trade down and look for great value/underrated players that will perform above their pay. It not only creates less risk for the team (as less money tied to a player that doesn't work out is easier to move/buy out) AND it creates potential loyalty with those players that do workout because we took a chance on them and gave them an opportunity. THAT is how you change the culture and external view of your franchise, by being smart and giving OPPORTUNITY to
hungry players that just need a chance in the right system to shine.
It's not with shiny new, perfect until they actually play, ego inflated/entitled players that have had smoke blown up their asses like they're child stars since HS.
Edwards/Ball will need MAJOR development time on their first team to even contribute to a winning NBA franchise, period. Do we really want the Wolves to continue being a glorified minor league development team or would we rather have Rosas search for gems that have more potential upside than down that can actually help this team WIN more? That's the only way we keep KAT and DLo for any stretch of time past their current contracts.
No. The Wolves just picked the wrong player. Wesley was indeed mocked anywhere from 4th to 10th by that draft and was described beforehand as the fastest riser gaining steam and obviously was part of the Hype machine.
