RealGM

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, where do you think the team will be in the final standings? Do the majority feel they join Orlando and Houston in tanking or continue trying to win games?

As of today:
30th - Minnesota (10-34)
29th - Detroit (12-31)
28th - Houston (12-31)
27th - Orlando (15-29)
26th - Washington (15-28)
25th - Cleveland (17-27)
24th - Toronto (18-26)
23rd - Oklahoma City (19-25)
22nd - New Orleans (19-24)
21st - Chicago (19-24)

One or both of Dlo and Beasley would have to remain out to keep losing. They bring too much firepower together for the team to keep losing. There's always the chance they allow Edwards to keep chewing up ball for 50 possessions to tank out the year I suppose. But Houston, Orlando, Detroit all may very well pass this team on the way down.

There is also a pretty good chance Towns has someone slap his wrist again and he shuts it down. He's been grasping it for a few games now and hanging the arm as low as possible to let us all know. Someone would have to explain to me why a player with a sore wrist would allow his arm and shoulder droop low. Shoulder injury? Stroke? Or just someone looking for excuses or just favoring it that much.

Let's just say it would be a small miracle to not find some acceptable excuses for tanking to the very bottom. If they do something crazy like win 15 games, does that help player values enough? Because there will be no top pick. Might have to live with this very roster for 2021-22. Still, if they proved they can win a 10 game stretch, wouldn't that be amazing to stop banking on drafts?

I think it's very likely we end up with the 4th or 5th worst record barring any more major injuries.

I'll say second or third worst record

Gotta love a franchise where predicting you’ll have the third or fourth worst record in the league halfway through the year is considered being optimistic

But I’ve always been an optimist by nature, so I’ll say fourth worst.

I am hoping we finish last so we can keep that lottery pick this year. But I think we will end up going on a hot streak and finish 27th also because it would be very MN Timberwolves to get the 4th pick in a draft were we have 5 good players then have to give it up to the GSW.

I keep seeing 40% chance of #1.

I don’t actually know how it works.

What if we are dead last. We have 40% chance of a top 3 pick? 40% of number 1?

What is the percentage chance we end up with a top 3 pick?
Can the worse team “move back” to #2 or #3? Or is it #1 or out of the top 3?

m2002brian wrote:I keep seeing 40% chance of #1.

I don’t actually know how it works.

What if we are dead last. We have 40% chance of a top 3 pick? 40% of number 1?

What is the percentage chance we end up with a top 3 pick?
Can the worse team “move back” to #2 or #3? Or is it #1 or out of the top 3?

We keep pick if 1-3, lose if 4th or lower.

40% of keeping the pick, whether we finish with worst, second worst or third worst record. Percentage down starting with fourth worst record. The No. 1 odds (worst record) can finish pick 1-4. No. 2 odds from pick 1-5, No. 3 odds from pick 1-6. No. 4 odds from pick 1-7, etc.

m2002brian wrote:I keep seeing 40% chance of #1.

I don’t actually know how it works.

What if we are dead last. We have 40% chance of a top 3 pick? 40% of number 1?

What is the percentage chance we end up with a top 3 pick?
Can the worse team “move back” to #2 or #3? Or is it #1 or out of the top 3?

It's not 40% chance of #1, it's 40% chance of keeping the pick. 14% chance of number 1.

I struggle to see how the Wolves can hold off the Rockets...

Baseline81 wrote:I struggle to see how the Wolves can hold off the Rockets...

That really doesn't even matter in the grand scheme of things

Klomp wrote:

m2002brian wrote:I keep seeing 40% chance of #1.

I don’t actually know how it works.

What if we are dead last. We have 40% chance of a top 3 pick? 40% of number 1?

What is the percentage chance we end up with a top 3 pick?
Can the worse team “move back” to #2 or #3? Or is it #1 or out of the top 3?

We keep pick if 1-3, lose if 4th or lower.

40% of keeping the pick, whether we finish with worst, second worst or third worst record. Percentage down starting with fourth worst record. The No. 1 odds (worst record) can finish pick 1-4. No. 2 odds from pick 1-5, No. 3 odds from pick 1-6. No. 4 odds from pick 1-7, etc.

Actually the top 4 picks are ping pong ball eligible this year. That means the worst team could end up #1-5, 2nd worst can finish #1-6, and so on.

Klomp wrote:That really doesn't even matter in the grand scheme of things

Depending on how the lottery shakes out, it may very well matter.

Baseline81 wrote:

Klomp wrote:That really doesn't even matter in the grand scheme of things

Depending on how the lottery shakes out, it may very well matter.

I think he’s just saying whether we finish with the worst record or the second worst, we still have a 40% chance of keeping the pick.

Since I like the top four guys pretty equally,
I just want to keep it. Don’t really care if it’s 1, 2, or 3.

TheDominator273 wrote:I think it's very likely we end up with the 4th or 5th worst record barring any more major injuries.

Major injuries? Or just timely, (in)convenient injuries?

No organization knows how to soft-tank better than your beloved Timberwolves. You will see a rash of minor injuries to key guys to keep the Wolves firmly in the top 4 for two reasons:

1) 40% >>> 31%. The 5th spot drops to 31% odds of landing in the top 3. That 9% is very significant if your career in a very high-paying, lucrative, prominent position running a team is on the line. We're told Rosas is an analytics guy. He knows this...

2) The less time Towns + Russell + Beasley play together... the more Rosas can play the "But we need more time to see them play together" card. This is very important as the team waits for one #1 HR swing to pan out while simultaneously hoping for a chance at another #1 pick HR swing.


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Just how good are the Wolves at tanking? Let's go back into the Glen Taylor time machine and see some legendary finishes from the Wolves:

2010: Finished 1 - 23.
2011: Finished 0 - 15.
2012: Finished 1 - 13
2015: Finished 0 - 12
2017: Finished 0 - 6
2020: Finished 4 - 23
Total: Finished 6 wins - 92 losses

When the Wolves WANT to lose games at the end of seasons for more lottery balls... nobody does it better. This is only the last decade so it doesn't even include the Mark Madsen Atrocity.

TheProdigy wrote:

Klomp wrote:

m2002brian wrote:I keep seeing 40% chance of #1.

I don’t actually know how it works.

What if we are dead last. We have 40% chance of a top 3 pick? 40% of number 1?

What is the percentage chance we end up with a top 3 pick?
Can the worse team “move back” to #2 or #3? Or is it #1 or out of the top 3?

We keep pick if 1-3, lose if 4th or lower.

40% of keeping the pick, whether we finish with worst, second worst or third worst record. Percentage down starting with fourth worst record. The No. 1 odds (worst record) can finish pick 1-4. No. 2 odds from pick 1-5, No. 3 odds from pick 1-6. No. 4 odds from pick 1-7, etc.

Actually the top 4 picks are ping pong ball eligible this year. That means the worst team could end up #1-5, 2nd worst can finish #1-6, and so on.

That's what I meant, yes.

jpatrick wrote:

Baseline81 wrote:

Klomp wrote:That really doesn't even matter in the grand scheme of things

Depending on how the lottery shakes out, it may very well matter.

I think he’s just saying whether we finish with the worst record or the second worst, we still have a 40% chance of keeping the pick.

Since I like the top four guys pretty equally,
I just want to keep it. Don’t really care if it’s 1, 2, or 3.

Correct, the only thing that changes is the specific lottery combinations.

I am so glad that this thread was about there record, and the “where” answer wasn’t “Seattle!”


Windhorst made an interesting point on Doogie’s podcast. While he said Glen Taylor was not a great owner, MIN fans should remember to show a little gratitude for saving basketball in Minnesota. I thought he meant in the ‘90’s, but Windhorst pointed out he saves it every year, turning down rich offers time and again from owners that would move the franchise.

shrink wrote:I am so glad that this thread was about there record, and the “where” answer wasn’t “Seattle!”


Windhorst made an interesting point on Doogie’s podcast. While he said Glen Taylor was not a great owner, MIN fans should remember to show a little gratitude for saving basketball in Minnesota. I thought he meant in the ‘90’s, but Windhorst pointed out he saves it every year, turning down rich offers time and again from owners that would move the franchise.

Poor Glen. I'm sure he also got a lof offers to not move the franchise out of Minnesota and he decided to keep it.
Actually i have no doubts about that.

This guys can be the worst owners in the entire NBA for decades now but still they are too proud to sell the damn teams (Glen, Dolan)

I know the day we are going to sell the team... I think we all know

Cancun?