Fun facts and unreal stats

[Klomp]

Fun fact: Going back 10 games, Kyle Anderson has made 2 of his last 4 3-pointers.

[winforlose]

Fun fact: Going back 10 games, Kyle Anderson has made 2 of his last 4 3-pointers.

That number goes up if you count foot on the line 3s.

[winforlose]

30-11. We are on pace for 60-22.

Edit to add: I forgot to emphasis that we are 17-2 at home, and 13-9 on the road. That means of the 41 road games we are more than half done with 22. Those extra 3 home games are a big deal.

[Klomp]

Edit to add: I forgot to emphasis that we are 17-2 at home, and 13-9 on the road. That means of the 41 road games we are more than half done with 22. Those extra 3 home games are a big deal.

Our schedule is one of the wackier we've had in a while, just in terms of home/road. This is because Target Center not only hosts HS state tournament this year, but also Big Ten men's and women's basketball tournaments (that's the 12-day road trip).

After these next two games at home, 9 of the last 12 before the all-star break are on the road. We come back from break with a 7-game home stand before we go back on the road for 6 games in 12 days, which goes from Indiana to Cleveland to LA to Utah, starting with a back-to-back and ending with the front end of another back-to-back. But after that road trip, we finish out the season playing 10 of our last 14 at home.

[winforlose]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-midseason-grades-a-for-76ers-celtics-plus-strong-marks-for-knicks-and-thunder-three-teams-get-f/amp/

Our section has some fun facts.

[shrink]

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-midseason-grades-a-for-76ers-celtics-plus-strong-marks-for-knicks-and-thunder-three-teams-get-f/amp/

Our section has some fun facts.

That was about the best synopsis of the Timberwolves I’ve read from a reporter outside the area!

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[winforlose]

Hey KG if feeding the hot hand is a myth, why does Finch say “we are obviously gonna feed the hot hand.” Time code is 1:15.

https://youtu.be/4HV737PjEyo?si=05onbhvA4EPN_5Pl

[shrink]

Our analysis showed that some players do get consistently “hot” during games and make more shots than expected following two shots made consecutively. However, when we looked at all players together, we found that usually when a player makes more shots than normal after making consecutive shots, they are likely to revert toward the shooting average by missing the next one. Hot hands do exist, but they are rare.

https://www.pitt.edu/pittwire/features-articles/hot-hand-phenomenon-basketball-real


“The “Hot Hand” in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0010028585900106?via%3Dihub

We investigate the origin and the validity of common beliefs regarding “the hot hand” and “streak shooting” in the game of basketball. Basketball players and fans alike tend to believe that a player's chance of hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot. However, detailed analyses of the shooting records of the Philadelphia 76ers provided no evidence for a positive correlation between the outcomes of successive shots. The same conclusions emerged from free-throw records of the Boston Celtics, and from a controlled shooting experiment with the men and women of Cornell's varsity teams. The outcomes of previous shots influenced Cornell players' predictions but not their performance. The belief in the hot hand and the “detection” of streaks in random sequences is attributed to a general misconception of chance according to which even short random sequences are thought to be highly representative of their generating process.

[winforlose]

Our analysis showed that some players do get consistently “hot” during games and make more shots than expected following two shots made consecutively. However, when we looked at all players together, we found that usually when a player makes more shots than normal after making consecutive shots, they are likely to revert toward the shooting average by missing the next one. Hot hands do exist, but they are rare.

https://www.pitt.edu/pittwire/features-articles/hot-hand-phenomenon-basketball-real


“The “Hot Hand” in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0010028585900106?via%3Dihub

We investigate the origin and the validity of common beliefs regarding “the hot hand” and “streak shooting” in the game of basketball. Basketball players and fans alike tend to believe that a player's chance of hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot. However, detailed analyses of the shooting records of the Philadelphia 76ers provided no evidence for a positive correlation between the outcomes of successive shots. The same conclusions emerged from free-throw records of the Boston Celtics, and from a controlled shooting experiment with the men and women of Cornell's varsity teams. The outcomes of previous shots influenced Cornell players' predictions but not their performance. The belief in the hot hand and the “detection” of streaks in random sequences is attributed to a general misconception of chance according to which even short random sequences are thought to be highly representative of their generating process.

Both of these theories ignore the confidence aspect as well as the opportunity aspect to the phenomenon. For example, when a team is shooting well they are thought to have momentum, and some announcers like to say the rim looks like a hula hoop. Likewise when a team is struggling even easy shots miss like there is a lid on the rim. The psychology of basketball is real and has an effect. Likewise when a team senses a player is on and feed them the ball, the opportunity to shoot with confidence increases. Now a confident player is getting opportunities to boost their confidence further, and thus a hot hand is born. When the missing starts the confidence diminishes and the hot hand goes cold. Likewise the more the missing happens the less encouraged the teammates are too feed it. Diminished confidence plus less opportunity contributes to cold hand.

[shrink]

Our analysis showed that some players do get consistently “hot” during games and make more shots than expected following two shots made consecutively. However, when we looked at all players together, we found that usually when a player makes more shots than normal after making consecutive shots, they are likely to revert toward the shooting average by missing the next one. Hot hands do exist, but they are rare.

https://www.pitt.edu/pittwire/features-articles/hot-hand-phenomenon-basketball-real


“The “Hot Hand” in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0010028585900106?via%3Dihub

We investigate the origin and the validity of common beliefs regarding “the hot hand” and “streak shooting” in the game of basketball. Basketball players and fans alike tend to believe that a player's chance of hitting a shot are greater following a hit than following a miss on the previous shot. However, detailed analyses of the shooting records of the Philadelphia 76ers provided no evidence for a positive correlation between the outcomes of successive shots. The same conclusions emerged from free-throw records of the Boston Celtics, and from a controlled shooting experiment with the men and women of Cornell's varsity teams. The outcomes of previous shots influenced Cornell players' predictions but not their performance. The belief in the hot hand and the “detection” of streaks in random sequences is attributed to a general misconception of chance according to which even short random sequences are thought to be highly representative of their generating process.

Both of these theories ignore the confidence aspect as well as the opportunity aspect to the phenomenon. For example, when a team is shooting well they are thought to have momentum, and some announcers like to say the rim looks like a hula hoop. Likewise when a team is struggling even easy shots miss like there is a lid on the rim. The psychology of basketball is real and has an effect. Likewise when a team senses a player is on and feed them the ball, the opportunity to shoot with confidence increases. Now a confident player is getting opportunities to boost their confidence further, and thus a hot hand is born. When the missing starts the confidence diminishes and the hot hand goes cold. Likewise the more the missing happens the less encouraged the teammates are too feed it. Diminished confidence plus less opportunity contributes to cold hand.

They aren’t measuring the subjective hula hoop feelings. They are measuring the actual data about whether shots go in.

[Note30]

https://www.pitt.edu/pittwire/features-articles/hot-hand-phenomenon-basketball-real


“The “Hot Hand” in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0010028585900106?via%3Dihub

Both of these theories ignore the confidence aspect as well as the opportunity aspect to the phenomenon. For example, when a team is shooting well they are thought to have momentum, and some announcers like to say the rim looks like a hula hoop. Likewise when a team is struggling even easy shots miss like there is a lid on the rim. The psychology of basketball is real and has an effect. Likewise when a team senses a player is on and feed them the ball, the opportunity to shoot with confidence increases. Now a confident player is getting opportunities to boost their confidence further, and thus a hot hand is born. When the missing starts the confidence diminishes and the hot hand goes cold. Likewise the more the missing happens the less encouraged the teammates are too feed it. Diminished confidence plus less opportunity contributes to cold hand.

They aren’t measuring the subjective hula hoop feelings. They are measuring the actual data about whether shots go in.

Then by that logic there is no clutch players or play. It doesn't matter who takes the last shot as long as they are a high percentage shooter.

[shrink]

Both of these theories ignore the confidence aspect as well as the opportunity aspect to the phenomenon. For example, when a team is shooting well they are thought to have momentum, and some announcers like to say the rim looks like a hula hoop. Likewise when a team is struggling even easy shots miss like there is a lid on the rim. The psychology of basketball is real and has an effect. Likewise when a team senses a player is on and feed them the ball, the opportunity to shoot with confidence increases. Now a confident player is getting opportunities to boost their confidence further, and thus a hot hand is born. When the missing starts the confidence diminishes and the hot hand goes cold. Likewise the more the missing happens the less encouraged the teammates are too feed it. Diminished confidence plus less opportunity contributes to cold hand.

They aren’t measuring the subjective hula hoop feelings. They are measuring the actual data about whether shots go in.

Then by that logic there is no clutch players or play. It doesn't matter who takes the last shot as long as they are a high percentage shooter.

Yes, both of these studies showed that, except for a few players, your percentage is your percentage. The human brain is constantly trying to see patterns, and then to induct some sort of reasoning for that pattern. Much of our reasoning is based on this type of thinking, and it provides a way to function in the world. But inductive reasoning isn’t logic, and sampling error and “correlation does not equal causation” often makes us leap to wrong conclusions, even though our brain tells us they feel right.

In fact, I was a little surprised to see there are a few exceptions. Perhaps those guys have particularly cold nights where they miss a few shots and they change the way they are shooting to try to get a different result. But even here, my brain is just being human. I’m not being logical, seeing an effect and guessing at the cause.

[winforlose]

They aren’t measuring the subjective hula hoop feelings. They are measuring the actual data about whether shots go in.

Then by that logic there is no clutch players or play. It doesn't matter who takes the last shot as long as they are a high percentage shooter.

Yes, both of these studies showed that, except for a few players, your percentage is your percentage. The human brain is constantly trying to see patterns, and then to induct some sort of reasoning for that pattern. Much of our reasoning is based on this type of thinking, and it provides a way to function in the world. But inductive reasoning isn’t logic, and sampling error and “correlation does not equal causation” often makes us leap to wrong conclusions, even though our brain tells us they feel right.

In fact, I was a little surprised to see there are a few exceptions. Perhaps those guys have particularly cold nights where they miss a few shots and they change the way they are shooting to try to get a different result. But even here, my brain is just being human. I’m not being logical, seeing an effect and guessing at the cause.

Shrink, if you see a glass of water you can try to guess how much liquid is in the cup. In the end there is an easy method of extracting the water and measure its volume (or just the measure the cup before hand and add the weight of the water.) In either event, there is a clear and scientifically precise way to determine the volume. Basketball isn’t science, and human performance cannot be perfectly quantified. Even allowing for the existence of an outlier, if Karl doesn’t take 35 shots he doesn’t make 21. The very fact that people believe in the hot hand creates the hot hand behavior. Karl missed a 3 but still hit his next 4 shots. Some guys miss once and that’s it, others can miss one and still be hot. This speaks to the confidence effect. If a human subconsciously believes it is going in, then it has a higher likelihood. This contributes to the hula hoop effect as well. When things are going well everyone is excited and confident and believe there shots will fall. If things are going badly maybe they believe they will miss. I am not saying this is a 1 to 1 phenomenon. Grip, energy level, openness, and a lot more variables are involved. But you cannot simply quantify the hot night. Calling it an outlier is fine, but not all outliers are created equal.

[shrink]

I disagree. You can literally measure whether a ball goes in or not.

If we define a player who has made four in a row as a “hot hand,” we can record whether their fifth shots go in.

There is no subjectivity to whether the fifth shot was made or missed, and there are years of evidence for anyone who cares to look at those situations.

If your logic is that, “well, even though most people’s fifth shots reflect their shooting percentages, then the ones that missed must not have felt confident,” then you’re going down a personal rabbit hole, forcing data to match your feelings.

[Domejandro]

The hot hand is absolutely a real phenomenon, and it's driving me crazy that a forum of basketball fans can't correctly identify it.

To be clear, the benefit of "riding the hot hand" isn't exclusively about shot-making, it is about exploiting how the defense reacts to a player being "in the zone". We saw it yesterday, when Karl-Anthony Towns was hitting unbelievable shots on-route to a 44 point first half. Dude was clearly locked in and unable to miss (you could say that he had "the hot hand"). In response to this, the Charlotte Hornets started heavily loading up on him in the second half. If the entirety of Minnesota's roster wasn't completely giving up on trying to score because of the circumstances, this would have been an elite opportunity for the team to exploit major cross-matches and rotations, specifically because Karl-Anthony Towns was "on-fire".

A major issue with studies is that they do not adequately measure quality-of-shot/openess. If a player is on a string of good makes, often times what happens is that the player will then take a low-quality shot, rather than staying in the flow of the offense. How often do we see this from Anthony Edwards where he scores on three straight possessions, and then proceeds to play the worst ball-hogging brand of basketball this side of Antoine Walker?

What used to make Golden State (even pre-Durant) so frightening is that, whenever Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson "caught fire", it would force defenses to overreact to their off-ball movement or continue getting scorched, which enabled the rest of the team to score easy baskets. The issue is that, good teams exploit the "hot hand" effect to empower the entire roster, while bad/undisciplined teams ride the "hot hand" until they flame out. To maximize this effect, it important to keep the player who is "hot" involved in play action, rather than just spacing them out to the wing. That is a huge criticism I have of how the Minnesota Timberwolves manage Karl-Anthony Towns when he is playing well; they either space him out, or have him drive into three defenders with zero off-ball movement to pass out to (which results in a turnover/bad shot). Instead, maybe some pick-and-roll/pop or flare-screen action could lead to more cross-matches.

[shrink]

So like many of us, I feel like turnovers is one of the Wolves biggest problems. They are the third worst team in that stat, annd Ant and KAT need to be better. But can you guess how many more turnovers the Wolves commit than the average NBA team?

Spoiler:

1.5 more. I was surprised - I thought it would be much greater.

[BlacJacMac]

So like many of us, I feel like turnovers is one of the Wolves biggest problems. They are the third worst team in that stat, annd Ant and KAT need to be better. But can you guess how many more turnovers the Wolves commit than the average NBA team?

Spoiler:

1.5 more

I wonder how the number compares in 4th quarters?

It feels like we (especially Ant) really crank up the TOs late.

[Colbinii]

So like many of us, I feel like turnovers is one of the Wolves biggest problems. They are the third worst team in that stat, annd Ant and KAT need to be better. But can you guess how many more turnovers the Wolves commit than the average NBA team?

Spoiler:

1.5 more

I wonder how the number compares in 4th quarters?

It feels like we (especially Ant) really crank up the TOs late.

Per 100 Possessions, Wolves average the 5th most TO in the 4th quarter.

[minimus]

So like many of us, I feel like turnovers is one of the Wolves biggest problems. They are the third worst team in that stat, annd Ant and KAT need to be better. But can you guess how many more turnovers the Wolves commit than the average NBA team?

Spoiler:

1.5 more

I wonder how the number compares in 4th quarters?

It feels like we (especially Ant) really crank up the TOs late.

Per 100 Possessions, Wolves average the 5th most TO in the 4th quarter.

Yeah, it is more about when they commit turnovers