Is Jaylen Nowell an x-factor for the Wolves trajectory as an aspiring playoff team?

[TheZachAttack]

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Introduction
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Nowell has been a player/prospect that a lot of Wolves fans have had their eye on for years now. For many, he was the Wolves version of say a Beasley/Vanderbilt for the Nuggets. What I mean by that is Nowell has always had a lot of believers in his talent among those who have paid attention. The reason that he's been a prospect that has been intriguing for many Wolves fans is because his production at every level outside of the NBA has consistently been elite. In addition, Nowell's underlying advanced numbers have always seemed to indicate a skillset that is hard to find in the NBA and should translate into NBA success.

Nowell’s college production was elite. He was an efficient scorer from all 3 levels and could create his own shot, handle the ball, and showed that offense could run through him even if he was a score first player. In the G-League, Nowell’s elite production picked up right where it left off in college. Nowell, in the G-League, was consistently among the league leaders in points, 3 point percentage & volume, as well as overall efficiency. He continued to show an ability to create his own shot, craftiness and touch in the midrange, sneaky athleticism, and a double 3 point shot. In the NBA, Nowell has never really gotten consistent rotation minutes and while he has flashed a couple of times with huge games where he makes everything, he’s been an inconsistent and even bad at times 3 point shooter which has been surprising. He also seemed like he played with tunnel vision trying to show off his skills and score.

This season things seem to have clicked for Nowell. He has been able to finally show off the set of skills that he has at other levels and he's been forcing his way into more and more minutes. The question that many fans now have is it for real? I believe that the answer to that question is that yes it is for real. This isn't the first time in recent history that the Wolves have a role player producing their way into forcing themselves into a major rotation spot. Last season both McDaniels & Vanderbilt started the season barely in the rotation, but started to consistently produce when they were on the court. Both of their play passed the eye-test albeit in different ways, McDaniels body control and length as a defender popped again, and again, and again. He continued to make impressive defensive plays and take on all kinds of defensive matchups as a rookie. Vanderbilt was the same, his energy, hustle, and defense continually energized the team and led to positive play.

There are still questions about what types of players both McDaniels and Vanderbilt will become at their peak. McDaniels hasn't taken much of a step forward from last season, but Vanderbilt has continued to produce his way into a starting role and is starting to be thought of across the league as one of the best defending/rebounding 4's in the league. The point I am making is that prior to him earning his current starting role and even before he was getting big minutes against opposing teams starters, it was clear before that Vanderbilt's play was legit--same with McDaniels.

When you watch Nowell, he gives off the same eye-test vibes of him being legit. He is making a ton of splash plays and those plays are being created based off of him using a consistent set of skills and that match the skills and things that have allowed him to produce at an elite level outside of the NBA. Nowell isn't going to lose his ability as a shot creator or maker tomorrow. In the sense, I think we can say that Nowell is legit. Nowell's ability as a ball-handler and shot creator is a definite above average skill and he is using that above average skill to create success at the NBA level--the same way McDaniels did with his body control and length on defense and Vanderbilt has on both sides of the ball with his energy, rebounding, and defense. This is similar how you could in Vanderbilt's first stretch of games in the rotation pretty quickly say that Vanderbilt's rebounding skills, athleticism, and energy were for real.

What has Nowell's production looked like over the past month and how does it compare across the league?

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Nowell Production Since Entering Rotation

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Nowell broke into the rotation on 12/10 and in the 14 games since outside of 1 game where he only played 4 min to close a game out in garbage time he’s averaging the following stat line.

Note: It’s not worth it to use full season stats for Nowell because prior to that stretch he only played in 11 games, 2 of which were 1-3 minute appearances, another 2 that were 4-5 minute appearances, and none of his other appearances reached even 10mpg.

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Nowell stats:

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Traditional Stats

21.8mpg
13.3ppg
3.30apg
3.1rbd
1.1 TO - 1 stock

Shooting splits

56.4% on 6.5 2’s/g
40.4% on 3.9 3’s/g
73% on 2.2 FT/g

Efficiency splits

58.8 TS%
56.5% eFG%

Per 30 production

18.3ppg
4.5apg
4.3rbd
1.41 TO - 1.4 stocks

Per 36 production

22ppg
5.4apg
5.2apg
1.7 TO - 1.7 stocks
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Nowell brings a couple of elements to the Wolves bench unit that they haven’t had.
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Before comparing Nowell's stats against others in the league I want to talk more about Nowell's offensive skillset. The biggest unique differentiator that Nowell has is that he can create his own shot at all 3 levels. 48% of Nowell’s made baskets over that stretch. For comparison, 52% of Ant’s made baskets are unassisted. This includes 53% of his shots in the restricted area and 63-66% of his shots in the paint (not restricted) and midrange shots. Nowell has not been taking a lot of 3’s off the dribble this season (21% of his above the break 3’s). However, last season he proved that he’s potentially even more comfortable on pull up jump shots as he is on catch and shoot opportunities.

Nowell has been efficient from all 3 levels during this stretch. Nowell is shooting 77% from the restricted area, ~48% on pull up shots and midrange shots from 5-15 feet, 38% on 3 point shots above the break, and 44% from the corners. He won’t continue to produce at those levels, but his skill set is exciting for the Wolves because they don’t have anyone on their roster outside of the big 3 that has this skill set.

His percentages back up the eye test that Nowell has finally been able to match his production to his skillset for a consistent stretch of time. Nowell's shooting percentage at the rim is not sustainable, but Nowell's production has not been flukey over the past few weeks. Nowell's production has been driven largely by his ability as a ball-handler to collapse defenses and get to the rim and pull up for jump shots all over the court. He has proven that he does have an above-average NBA skill in this area.


Nowell has also shown that he’s a much better passer than expected since he’s gotten a regular rotation spot—especially when compared to other Wolves options.


Nowell’s skill set is interesting because he can run the bench offense with the ball in his hands as opposed to a player like Beasley. Nowell has a ~24% assist percentage during that stretch. This is really interesting because it would rank 3rd on the Wolves this season behind D Lo (31.8%) & Beverly (26.7%) and also McLaughlin at 30% as well. It’s not surprising that PGs have the highest assist rate, but Nowell’s assist rate is higher than Towns/Edwards at ~17% and much higher than the Wolves other bench wings Beasley, Prince, Bolmaro, Okogie, McDaniels who range from 9.7% on the high end (Beasley) to ~6% (McDaniels). Again, it’s not surprising that non-ball handlers have lower assist rates but I do think it’s an interesting idea to consider the impact of running bench offense through Nowell rather than through Beasley as your primary scorer (at least as the Wolves hoped to do this season).



For additional comparison, I looked at the assist percentages of other “6th men”. Jordan Clarkson is around 13-14%, Derrick Rose is around 26-27%, and Dennis Schroeder’s last 3 seasons have been 21%, 27%, and now 23%, Jalen Brunson was at 22% last season and 29% this season, Halliburton was at 24% last season, and 29% this season. Nowell is a score first player, but he is definitely capable of having offense run through him. Aside from his assist percentages, Nowell has shown that he has the ball handling ability and passing skill set to make a number of different entry passes to bigs that have been surprising in recent games and can execute some other types of actions decently well like two man action and also some drive and kick IQ on his drives.


Nowell has profiled as a player who can truly run an offense on a bench unit during this stretch. He’s not a pure PG, but he’s definitely shown an ability during this stretch to handle a lot of playmaking duties evidenced by Clarkson/Beasley and others being in the 12-14% range for assist percentage. This opens up a lot of opportunities for the Wolves because they can now have multiple ball handlers that can score at all 3 levels and handle playmaking responsibilites when they stagger D Lo or Edwards with the bench unit while also being able to play off ball as well. In addition, this opens up the potential to lean in on offense on the bench unit adding Beasley to the unit or add Okogie for defense.

Further, this even opens up flexibility for the Wolves to not have to always find away to keep one of the big 3 on the court in order to have someone who can create their own shot. If Nowell is able to continue to prove that he can handle being the primary ball handler on the bench unit and be able to operate as a playmaker it could be an x-factor for the Wolves bench unit. Nowell would solidify the Wolves backcourt rotation with a true 3rd ball handler that is able to collapse defenses and make perimeter shots off the dribble. It would also give the Wolves a lot of flexibility to decide what to do with Beasley.
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How do Nowell’s stats compare to other elite 6th men?
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Per 36, during Nowell’s stretch in the rotation he’s averaging roughly 22-5-5 on efficiency metrics that would put him in the top 25 non-lob bigs in the NBA. Per 25mpg, that projects to be roughly around 15-16ppg, 3-4 apg, 3-4rbds. He’s not going to continue to shoot this efficiently but as a comparison (although stylistically different) his scoring efficiencies and volume per minute are pretty similar to what Beasley put up last year for reference in terms of scoring volume feel. The difference being that Nowell offers double the playmaking abilities and can play on-ball.
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6th man of the year candidates like Rose, Clarkson, Schroeder and Hardaway JR in their best 6th man years recently have averaged roughly:


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25-28mpg*

15-17ppg*

3-3.5rbd*

2.5-3apg*

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52-54% eFG%*

55-58% TS%*

Note: Hardaway had a crazy 6th man year last year with 5 rbd, 4 ast, and 56% / 59% eFG and TS%, but he also played 28mpg. Schroeder played 30mpg and averaged 19ppg in his best year.
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In general, it seems like once you hit roughly the 15-3-3 range on roughly a 52% eFG / 55% TS% you start entering the 6th man of the year finalist conversation though you won’t win. If you can produce higher than that threshold, especially more efficiently you will be in the conversation to win the award. Nowell’s stats per 25 or 30 would basically put his stats during this stretch at the upper end of this profile if his current production were to continue. This means that there is some room for regression from Nowell where he would still be among the best 6th men in the league at his current production—which gives room for optimism.

In my mind, Nowell has shown at college, in the G-league, and over this past month that he has a skillset that suggests should allow him to be an above-average 6th man as long as he got an opportunity and was able to find some consistency. The eye test has said that he's been playing extremely well and now we've contextualized it to say that he's been playing at basically a 6th man of the year level over that stretch.
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What kind of role do the Wolves have room for in their rotation?
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The Wolves currently have 4 role players who are consistent players in their rotation not including Nowell—Beasley, Beverly, Vanderbilt, and Naz. Nowell is making a case for being a 5th player in that group. Finch has shown a willingness to let young players produce their way into big rotation minutes if they continue to show they deserve it. Nowell, with his play over the past month, has increased his role from essentially DNP/garbage time to almost 20mpg. Injuries have helped create minutes, but the Wolves will have to carve space for Nowel if he continues to play at this level. I think it’s likely that Nowell’s improvement will lead to both Beasley/Okogie losing minutes. If Nowell continues to show that he deserves a 25-30mpg role… Beasley/Okogie will likely be left fighting for ~25 minutes off playing time.
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Jaylen Nowell - Why does he change the Wolves trajectory as a contender if he is for real?
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This season, Nowell has finally had a chance to get consistent non-garbage time minutes and been able to find the consistency from the perimeter he has at every other level. This consistency and confidence has seemingly made him feel more comfortable—he seems much more patient and has even shown a surprising ability to handle not only scoring duties on ball but playmaking as well. The reason that Nowell changes the trajectory of the Wolves is that Nowell truly does have the skill set to be one of the best 6th men in the NBA. His skill set completely changes the style of offense that our bench unit can play and also, in my opinion, puts the Wolves in a position to have the best scoring bench unit in the league if they continue to stagger D Lo on that unit.

Having perimeter ball-handlers and shot creators that can score at all 3 levels is arguably the most important skill that a team can never have enough of during the postseason. In the postseason the defensive intensity picks up and teams do their best to create tougher game plans against stars. Prior to Nowell's emergence, the Wolves lacked perimeter ball-handlers that could collapse defenses and create their own shots and also create offense for others. The Wolves didn't have any other rotation players other than D Lo/Edwards that could create in that way and in some ways D Lo is not able to collapse defenses.

Having a 3rd perimeter ball-handler that can score at that level allows you to almost always have 2 ball-handlers on the court together and cements a huge role that the Wolves have been missing compared to other contending teams. The Wolves haven't, in recent memory, had a player off the bench is good enough to create offense while their top players are off the court. Nowell's emergence theoretically allows the Wolves to be more successful during stretches of the game that have previously been opportunities for opposing teams especially good ones to make runs against the Wolves.

The hardest skill to find in the NBA is a player that can do what Nowell has been doing and create his own offense at all 3 levels efficiently. It's especially hard to find these types of players to add to your rotation when your roster is locked into max players. It's even harder to develop a player from a late pick and basically add that player for free to your rotation. If Nowell is able to become an above-average 6th man it adds a piece for the Wolves that should allow them to more concretely cement the rest of their rotation and path to contention.

I have just made the argument that Nowell is an x-factor for the Wolves because 1) the Wolves may be adding a legit key rotation piece on contending level teams for no assets 2) Nowell puts the Wolves in position to be in a huge mismatch situation against most benches when also playing Beasley/D Lo 3) and also allows the Wolves to always have multiple primary ball-handlers on the floor. However, I think Nowell's emergence put the Wolves in a situation where they will be able to trade assets to address needs.

The Wolves haven't wanted to make moves, but have struggled because they don't have enough assets that allow them to make moves for contending level rotation pieces that work in trades. However, Nowell forcing his way into 25-30 minutes from other Wolves rotation players as well as adding a new skillset to the roster create a situation that crystallizes the Wolves remaining needs in order to continue to take the next step as a contender. Nowell's emergence formalizes a bench identity and offensive hierarchy. It also focuses the Wolves remaining needs because of the rotation roles that Nowell fills as a ball-handler and 6th man. His addition pushes the other Wolves role players down a slot as well and into offensive roles and responsibilities that make much more sense. Nowell's addition pushes Beasley from being relied on as a 6th man/primary offense to a 7th/8th man. McDaniels is also pushed down to a 7/8th man, but the Wolves really don't have to care in the short-term about McDaniels inconsistency as a floor spacer.

The Wolves have added multiple pieces in the past few seasons that have proven to be or developed into playoff-level rotation players--Vanderbilt, Beverley, McDaniels, Nowell, and Beasley. Vanderbilt, Beverly, and McDaniels have helped solidify the Wolves defense and rebounding. Nowell.& Beasley (especially if he can shoot his career averages) should help fill the Wolves need for perimeter ball-handling, shot creation, and spacing outside of their Big 3. This puts the Wolves in position to really have only 2 remaining clear needs (1) a second big that’s a true rim protector and lob threat and (2) adding additional wing spacing

To me, Nowell forcing his way into the rotation is a move that likely leads to some combination of Okogie, Beasley, Naz, Prince, Bolmaro, and potentially picks being on the move to acquire at a minimum a true second big. In my opinion, Nowell’s production is real at least in the sense of he isn’t showing a bunch of new skills for the first time. Nowell has shown the skill set that he’s shown at every level except in the NBA. I see no reason why a player that was able to efficiently create offense at all 3 levels and shoot 40+% from 3 on high volume shouldn’t be able to translate some of those skills to the NBA. In the past, Nowell didn’t have issues creating his own shot during his minutes—he had issues even just making open ones.

How for real do you all think Nowell is? Do you think that his ball-handling and shot creation ability combined with a level of playmaking ability are skill additions that can really change the construction of the Wolves rotation in a positive way? What do you think Nowell's addition as a prominent role player means for moves to come as a result of that addition? How does having a 3rd perimeter ball-handler and shot creator as well as a 6th man change your vision of how the Wolves should move forward?

[winforlose]

Gonna be honest, your post was too long, I will go back and skim it, but to respond to the topic, I believe Nowell will get more minutes after the trade deadline. We are trying to highlight Beasley and to a lesser degree Prince right now. Nowell has shown himself to be a serious 6th man and a valuable initiator as well as off ball guard. Barring injury or collapse his future seems bright.

[TheZachAttack]

Gonna be honest, your post was too long, I will go back and skim it, but to respond to the topic, I believe Nowell will get more minutes after the trade deadline. We are trying to highlight Beasley and to a lesser degree Prince right now. Nowell has shown himself to be a serious 6th man and a valuable initiator as well as off-ball guard. Barring injury or collapse his future seems bright.

I'll summarize my post for you:

-Nowell is not coming from nowhere as a prospect.

Nowell has had elite production at both the college & g-league level as a #1 option on 50+/40+/80+% type efficiency. Nowell's production as a prospect was exciting, but Nowell generated a little bit of a following among draft analysts because of how his underlying numbers showed that Nowell was an advanced scorer that could play on or off-ball ,score at the rim, hit mid-range shots, and 3 point shots as well. The play that we are seeing over the past month is not new for Nowell, it's just new at the NBA level for him.

-Interesting information about Nowell's production during the 13 games since he entered the rotation

Nowell's production looks different from other role players the Wolves have on their roster. It looks different in a couple of key ways 1) the percentage of assisted vs unassisted shots and 2) assist % . Just under 50% of Nowell's shots are unassisted, this compares much more closely to someone like Edwards (who is just over 50%) than a player like Beasley for example. Despite this type of split, at the same time his data also shows that he's been an above-average productive scorer from all 3 levels on the court. In addition, Nowell's ast% of 24% is interested because it is most similarly to Beverly compared to Towns/Edwards at 17-18% or the rest of the Wolves role players/bench at ~7-10%.

Nowell profiles as someone that you can run bench offense through because he can collapse the defense, hit pull up jumpers from any zone, and also playmaker for others.

-How does Nowell's production over the past month compare to what can be considered elite-level 6th man production?

I compared Nowell's stats to the best recent seasons from Schroeder, Clarkson, D Rose, Hardaway JR Nowell's stat line over this 13 game stretch since entering the rotation on 12/10 fits the profile of what would resemble a statline that would get 6th man of the year votes even factoring into some regression. His assist rate compared to other #1 guards off the bench still profiles well.

-Nowell's development as a player into a potential 6th man could be the development that helps the Wolves trajectory as a contender.

Nowell's ability as a ball-handler, playmaker, and scorer would give the Timberwolves one of the best offensive bench units in the league that could really punish teams. I would prefer to keep Beasley over trading him and hope that he can regain his shooting stroke while also not having the same expectations on Beasley as a 7/8th man instead of a 6th man. D Lo/Nowell/Beasley lineups should dominate talentwise.

Adding a 3rd primary ball-handler that can collapse defenses and create shots is a huge add for a team that didn't really have one. In the playoffs, having players that can handle the ball and create their own shot is crucial. This allows the Wolves to essentially always have two ball-handlers on the court if possible and gives them a solution when none of the big 3 are the court.

Nowell's development and him forcing his way into a 25-30mpg 6th man role will lead to trades starting to happen. Both because of the roster squeeze, but also because adding a 6th man / primary bench scorer / and sliding back McDaniels/Beasley to the 7/8 spots adds a lot of value to the rotation but also defines clearly what you're remaining needs are and what assets to use to go after those needs.

[winforlose]

Gonna be honest, your post was too long, I will go back and skim it, but to respond to the topic, I believe Nowell will get more minutes after the trade deadline. We are trying to highlight Beasley and to a lesser degree Prince right now. Nowell has shown himself to be a serious 6th man and a valuable initiator as well as off-ball guard. Barring injury or collapse his future seems bright.

I'll summarize my post for you:

-Nowell is not coming from nowhere as a prospect.

Nowell has had elite production at both the college & g-league level as a #1 option on 50+/40+/80+% type efficiency. Nowell's production as a prospect was exciting, but Nowell generated a little bit of a following among draft analysts because of how his underlying numbers showed that Nowell was an advanced scorer that could play on or off-ball ,score at the rim, hit mid-range shots, and 3 point shots as well. The play that we are seeing over the past month is not new for Nowell, it's just new at the NBA level for him.

-Interesting information about Nowell's production during the 13 games since he entered the rotation

Nowell's production looks different from other role players the Wolves have on their roster. It looks different in a couple of key ways 1) the percentage of assisted vs unassisted shots and 2) assist % . Just under 50% of Nowell's shots are unassisted, this compares much more closely to someone like Edwards (who is just over 50%) than a player like Beasley for example. Despite this type of split, at the same time his data also shows that he's been an above-average productive scorer from all 3 levels on the court. In addition, Nowell's ast% of 24% is interested because it is most similarly to Beverly compared to Towns/Edwards at 17-18% or the rest of the Wolves role players/bench at ~7-10%.

Nowell profiles as someone that you can run bench offense through because he can collapse the defense, hit pull up jumpers from any zone, and also playmaker for others.

-How does Nowell's production over the past month compare to what can be considered elite-level 6th man production?

I compared Nowell's stats to the best recent seasons from Schroeder, Clarkson, D Rose, Hardaway JR Nowell's stat line over this 13 game stretch since entering the rotation on 12/10 fits the profile of what would resemble a statline that would get 6th man of the year votes even factoring into some regression. His assist rate compared to other #1 guards off the bench still profiles well.

-Nowell's development as a player into a potential 6th man could be the development that helps the Wolves trajectory as a contender.

Nowell's ability as a ball-handler, playmaker, and scorer would give the Timberwolves one of the best offensive bench units in the league that could really punish teams. I would prefer to keep Beasley over trading him and hope that he can regain his shooting stroke while also not having the same expectations on Beasley as a 7/8th man instead of a 6th man. D Lo/Nowell/Beasley lineups should dominate talentwise.

Adding a 3rd primary ball-handler that can collapse defenses and create shots is a huge add for a team that didn't really have one. In the playoffs, having players that can handle the ball and create their own shot is crucial. This allows the Wolves to essentially always have two ball-handlers on the court if possible and gives them a solution when none of the big 3 are the court.

Nowell's development and him forcing his way into a 25-30mpg 6th man role will lead to trades starting to happen. Both because of the roster squeeze, but also because adding a 6th man / primary bench scorer / and sliding back McDaniels/Beasley to the 7/8 spots adds a lot of value to the rotation but also defines clearly what you're remaining needs are and what assets to use to go after those needs.

Thanks for the summary, much more manageable. On a side note I will at some point respond to your response on the Ant board, but do to the volume it takes a while. Back to the topic, I agree Nowell is showing signs of becoming a viable 6th man on this team or any other. Given enough minutes and some help with screens I wonder if he could reach Lou Williams level of offensive contribution and efficiency.

Where I disagree is Beasley. A 3 point specialist is great when he hits a high percentage, but after 40 games Beasley just isn’t consistent. I get that he is better from the corners, but if he only shoots from them then opponents will figure that out too and take them away. Putting aside the money (which is necessary for most trades,) Beasley’s defense is just not good enough to justify his getting real minutes (especially in the playoffs.) Add to this Beasley’s relative inability to create offense for himself or get to the line and I just don’t see him here long term.

MCD is not really in competition for minutes with Nowell given the current roster construction. MCD is a 3/4 combo player who can defend 1-4. Nowell is a 1/2 and I would rather pair him with a defender like MCD who can cover for him than Beasley who compounds Nowell’s occasional defensive blunders. A lineup of Dlo/Nowell/MCD/V8/NAZ is a strong second unit that has a mix of scoring at all 3 levels and decent rebounding. It has two defensive stoppers and 2 primary ball handlers who can both play off ball. As much as I love Finch (and I probably love him more than most on here,) I just cannot get my head around not using and featuring Nowell more. We should be running action for him and finding ways to improve his catch and shoot as well as cutting opportunities.

[TheZachAttack]

Gonna be honest, your post was too long, I will go back and skim it, but to respond to the topic, I believe Nowell will get more minutes after the trade deadline. We are trying to highlight Beasley and to a lesser degree Prince right now. Nowell has shown himself to be a serious 6th man and a valuable initiator as well as off-ball guard. Barring injury or collapse his future seems bright.

I'll summarize my post for you:

-Nowell is not coming from nowhere as a prospect.

Nowell has had elite production at both the college & g-league level as a #1 option on 50+/40+/80+% type efficiency. Nowell's production as a prospect was exciting, but Nowell generated a little bit of a following among draft analysts because of how his underlying numbers showed that Nowell was an advanced scorer that could play on or off-ball ,score at the rim, hit mid-range shots, and 3 point shots as well. The play that we are seeing over the past month is not new for Nowell, it's just new at the NBA level for him.

-Interesting information about Nowell's production during the 13 games since he entered the rotation

Nowell's production looks different from other role players the Wolves have on their roster. It looks different in a couple of key ways 1) the percentage of assisted vs unassisted shots and 2) assist % . Just under 50% of Nowell's shots are unassisted, this compares much more closely to someone like Edwards (who is just over 50%) than a player like Beasley for example. Despite this type of split, at the same time his data also shows that he's been an above-average productive scorer from all 3 levels on the court. In addition, Nowell's ast% of 24% is interested because it is most similarly to Beverly compared to Towns/Edwards at 17-18% or the rest of the Wolves role players/bench at ~7-10%.

Nowell profiles as someone that you can run bench offense through because he can collapse the defense, hit pull up jumpers from any zone, and also playmaker for others.

-How does Nowell's production over the past month compare to what can be considered elite-level 6th man production?

I compared Nowell's stats to the best recent seasons from Schroeder, Clarkson, D Rose, Hardaway JR Nowell's stat line over this 13 game stretch since entering the rotation on 12/10 fits the profile of what would resemble a statline that would get 6th man of the year votes even factoring into some regression. His assist rate compared to other #1 guards off the bench still profiles well.

-Nowell's development as a player into a potential 6th man could be the development that helps the Wolves trajectory as a contender.

Nowell's ability as a ball-handler, playmaker, and scorer would give the Timberwolves one of the best offensive bench units in the league that could really punish teams. I would prefer to keep Beasley over trading him and hope that he can regain his shooting stroke while also not having the same expectations on Beasley as a 7/8th man instead of a 6th man. D Lo/Nowell/Beasley lineups should dominate talentwise.

Adding a 3rd primary ball-handler that can collapse defenses and create shots is a huge add for a team that didn't really have one. In the playoffs, having players that can handle the ball and create their own shot is crucial. This allows the Wolves to essentially always have two ball-handlers on the court if possible and gives them a solution when none of the big 3 are the court.

Nowell's development and him forcing his way into a 25-30mpg 6th man role will lead to trades starting to happen. Both because of the roster squeeze, but also because adding a 6th man / primary bench scorer / and sliding back McDaniels/Beasley to the 7/8 spots adds a lot of value to the rotation but also defines clearly what you're remaining needs are and what assets to use to go after those needs.

Thanks for the summary, much more manageable. On a side note I will at some point respond to your response on the Ant board, but do to the volume it takes a while. Back to the topic, I agree Nowell is showing signs of becoming a viable 6th man on this team or any other. Given enough minutes and some help with screens I wonder if he could reach Lou Williams level of offensive contribution and efficiency.

Where I disagree is Beasley. A 3 point specialist is great when he hits a high percentage, but after 40 games Beasley just isn’t consistent. I get that he is better from the corners, but if he only shoots from them then opponents will figure that out too and take them away. Putting aside the money (which is necessary for most trades,) Beasley’s defense is just not good enough to justify his getting real minutes (especially in the playoffs.) Add to this Beasley’s relative inability to create offense for himself or get to the line and I just don’t see him here long term.

MCD is not really in competition for minutes with Nowell given the current roster construction. MCD is a 3/4 combo player who can defend 1-4. Nowell is a 1/2 and I would rather pair him with a defender like MCD who can cover for him than Beasley who compounds Nowell’s occasional defensive blunders. A lineup of Dlo/Nowell/MCD/V8/NAZ is a strong second unit that has a mix of scoring at all 3 levels and decent rebounding. It has two defensive stoppers and 2 primary ball handlers who can both play off ball. As much as I love Finch (and I probably love him more than most on here,) I just cannot get my head around not using and featuring Nowell more. We should be running action for him and finding ways to improve his catch and shoot as well as cutting opportunities.

Thanks, take your time on the Ant topic. I think the sky is the limit for Nowell because he has all of the tools. He does have a couple of weaknesses, but I think it's worth letting him try to figure things out. I think the worst case for Nowell is that he's a streaky shooter but can still provide really good shot creation, playmaking, and offense running a second unit. I'm not attached to Beasley by any means other than the rationalization that 3 point shooting is variable and we've seen Beasley be a lights out 3 point shooter for months before. I wouldn't prioritize Beasley if we can move him and get a piece that's more valuable. However, for now I'd rather keep him than Okogie for example.

I agree that McDaniels and Nowell are competing for two different spots largely. I'm just excited that the Wolves appear to be developing another above average rotation player from a late pick. The McDaniels comment was just in reference to the idea that Nowell is sliding up in offensive responsibility.

[winforlose]

I'll summarize my post for you:

-Nowell is not coming from nowhere as a prospect.

Nowell has had elite production at both the college & g-league level as a #1 option on 50+/40+/80+% type efficiency. Nowell's production as a prospect was exciting, but Nowell generated a little bit of a following among draft analysts because of how his underlying numbers showed that Nowell was an advanced scorer that could play on or off-ball ,score at the rim, hit mid-range shots, and 3 point shots as well. The play that we are seeing over the past month is not new for Nowell, it's just new at the NBA level for him.

-Interesting information about Nowell's production during the 13 games since he entered the rotation

Nowell's production looks different from other role players the Wolves have on their roster. It looks different in a couple of key ways 1) the percentage of assisted vs unassisted shots and 2) assist % . Just under 50% of Nowell's shots are unassisted, this compares much more closely to someone like Edwards (who is just over 50%) than a player like Beasley for example. Despite this type of split, at the same time his data also shows that he's been an above-average productive scorer from all 3 levels on the court. In addition, Nowell's ast% of 24% is interested because it is most similarly to Beverly compared to Towns/Edwards at 17-18% or the rest of the Wolves role players/bench at ~7-10%.

Nowell profiles as someone that you can run bench offense through because he can collapse the defense, hit pull up jumpers from any zone, and also playmaker for others.

-How does Nowell's production over the past month compare to what can be considered elite-level 6th man production?

I compared Nowell's stats to the best recent seasons from Schroeder, Clarkson, D Rose, Hardaway JR Nowell's stat line over this 13 game stretch since entering the rotation on 12/10 fits the profile of what would resemble a statline that would get 6th man of the year votes even factoring into some regression. His assist rate compared to other #1 guards off the bench still profiles well.

-Nowell's development as a player into a potential 6th man could be the development that helps the Wolves trajectory as a contender.

Nowell's ability as a ball-handler, playmaker, and scorer would give the Timberwolves one of the best offensive bench units in the league that could really punish teams. I would prefer to keep Beasley over trading him and hope that he can regain his shooting stroke while also not having the same expectations on Beasley as a 7/8th man instead of a 6th man. D Lo/Nowell/Beasley lineups should dominate talentwise.

Adding a 3rd primary ball-handler that can collapse defenses and create shots is a huge add for a team that didn't really have one. In the playoffs, having players that can handle the ball and create their own shot is crucial. This allows the Wolves to essentially always have two ball-handlers on the court if possible and gives them a solution when none of the big 3 are the court.

Nowell's development and him forcing his way into a 25-30mpg 6th man role will lead to trades starting to happen. Both because of the roster squeeze, but also because adding a 6th man / primary bench scorer / and sliding back McDaniels/Beasley to the 7/8 spots adds a lot of value to the rotation but also defines clearly what you're remaining needs are and what assets to use to go after those needs.

Thanks for the summary, much more manageable. On a side note I will at some point respond to your response on the Ant board, but do to the volume it takes a while. Back to the topic, I agree Nowell is showing signs of becoming a viable 6th man on this team or any other. Given enough minutes and some help with screens I wonder if he could reach Lou Williams level of offensive contribution and efficiency.

Where I disagree is Beasley. A 3 point specialist is great when he hits a high percentage, but after 40 games Beasley just isn’t consistent. I get that he is better from the corners, but if he only shoots from them then opponents will figure that out too and take them away. Putting aside the money (which is necessary for most trades,) Beasley’s defense is just not good enough to justify his getting real minutes (especially in the playoffs.) Add to this Beasley’s relative inability to create offense for himself or get to the line and I just don’t see him here long term.

MCD is not really in competition for minutes with Nowell given the current roster construction. MCD is a 3/4 combo player who can defend 1-4. Nowell is a 1/2 and I would rather pair him with a defender like MCD who can cover for him than Beasley who compounds Nowell’s occasional defensive blunders. A lineup of Dlo/Nowell/MCD/V8/NAZ is a strong second unit that has a mix of scoring at all 3 levels and decent rebounding. It has two defensive stoppers and 2 primary ball handlers who can both play off ball. As much as I love Finch (and I probably love him more than most on here,) I just cannot get my head around not using and featuring Nowell more. We should be running action for him and finding ways to improve his catch and shoot as well as cutting opportunities.

Thanks, take your time on the Ant topic. I think the sky is the limit for Nowell because he has all of the tools. He does have a couple of weaknesses, but I think it's worth letting him try to figure things out. I think the worst case for Nowell is that he's a streaky shooter but can still provide really good shot creation, playmaking, and offense running a second unit. I'm not attached to Beasley by any means other than the rationalization that 3 point shooting is variable and we've seen Beasley be a lights out 3 point shooter for months before. I wouldn't prioritize Beasley if we can move him and get a piece that's more valuable. However, for now I'd rather keep him than Okogie for example.

I agree that McDaniels and Nowell are competing for two different spots largely. I'm just excited that the Wolves appear to be developing another above average rotation player from a late pick. The McDaniels comment was just in reference to the idea that Nowell is sliding up in offensive responsibility.

I think what’s so great about MCD is he never needs to score a single point to be extremely valuable. Unlike a Nowell or Beasley whose production determines their value on a given night, MCD’s defense and rebounding potential make him like V8. Granted MCD has a lot of work to do to match V8 on the glass, but as long as he can knock down the corner 3 or get to the rim off the dribble teams must respect MCD the way they don’t respect JO.

Nowell had me believing he was a 40% + 3 point shooter after his outstanding Iowa numbers. That said, he doesn’t really need to above 35/36% to be dangerous. With his close out skills and mid range game he is a threat from anywhere. But the thing we didn’t talk about that you probably mentioned above is his passing. Nowell is showing PG level awareness and passing more and more often. He isn’t there yet with his handle, (it is good, but he runs into trouble against real pressure or double teams,) but I believe that will continue to improve with time and usage. Nowell is also nowhere near his true potential. The kid is what 22? Give him 3 years and 20+ minutes per game, then watch out.

[TheZachAttack]

Thanks for the summary, much more manageable. On a side note I will at some point respond to your response on the Ant board, but do to the volume it takes a while. Back to the topic, I agree Nowell is showing signs of becoming a viable 6th man on this team or any other. Given enough minutes and some help with screens I wonder if he could reach Lou Williams level of offensive contribution and efficiency.

Where I disagree is Beasley. A 3 point specialist is great when he hits a high percentage, but after 40 games Beasley just isn’t consistent. I get that he is better from the corners, but if he only shoots from them then opponents will figure that out too and take them away. Putting aside the money (which is necessary for most trades,) Beasley’s defense is just not good enough to justify his getting real minutes (especially in the playoffs.) Add to this Beasley’s relative inability to create offense for himself or get to the line and I just don’t see him here long term.

MCD is not really in competition for minutes with Nowell given the current roster construction. MCD is a 3/4 combo player who can defend 1-4. Nowell is a 1/2 and I would rather pair him with a defender like MCD who can cover for him than Beasley who compounds Nowell’s occasional defensive blunders. A lineup of Dlo/Nowell/MCD/V8/NAZ is a strong second unit that has a mix of scoring at all 3 levels and decent rebounding. It has two defensive stoppers and 2 primary ball handlers who can both play off ball. As much as I love Finch (and I probably love him more than most on here,) I just cannot get my head around not using and featuring Nowell more. We should be running action for him and finding ways to improve his catch and shoot as well as cutting opportunities.

Thanks, take your time on the Ant topic. I think the sky is the limit for Nowell because he has all of the tools. He does have a couple of weaknesses, but I think it's worth letting him try to figure things out. I think the worst case for Nowell is that he's a streaky shooter but can still provide really good shot creation, playmaking, and offense running a second unit. I'm not attached to Beasley by any means other than the rationalization that 3 point shooting is variable and we've seen Beasley be a lights out 3 point shooter for months before. I wouldn't prioritize Beasley if we can move him and get a piece that's more valuable. However, for now I'd rather keep him than Okogie for example.

I agree that McDaniels and Nowell are competing for two different spots largely. I'm just excited that the Wolves appear to be developing another above average rotation player from a late pick. The McDaniels comment was just in reference to the idea that Nowell is sliding up in offensive responsibility.

I think what’s so great about MCD is he never needs to score a single point to be extremely valuable. Unlike a Nowell or Beasley whose production determines their value on a given night, MCD’s defense and rebounding potential make him like V8. Granted MCD has a lot of work to do to match V8 on the glass, but as long as he can knock down the corner 3 or get to the rim off the dribble teams must respect MCD the way they don’t respect JO.

Nowell had me believing he was a 40% + 3 point shooter after his outstanding Iowa numbers. That said, he doesn’t really need to above 35/36% to be dangerous. With his close out skills and mid range game he is a threat from anywhere. But the thing we didn’t talk about that you probably mentioned above is his passing. Nowell is showing PG level awareness and passing more and more often. He isn’t there yet with his handle, (it is good, but he runs into trouble against real pressure or double teams,) but I believe that will continue to improve with time and usage. Nowell is also nowhere near his true potential. The kid is what 22? Give him 3 years and 20+ minutes per game, then watch out.

I agree on your first paragraph about McDaniels as well as the point at the end about Beasley/Nowell. Guys that can make an impact without needing the ball are extremely important role players to find. I think we talk a lot about those role players, however as I 've said before in a couple of my long posts I've really come around in recent months to a change of opinion in how important I think it is to also have guys who can create their own shot efficiently from different levels on the court with bonus points if they can be a positive playmaker as well.

I think perimeter scorers drive the NBA right now and having multiple ball-handlers in multiple different lineups is crucial. For example, one of the biggest reasons why the Sixers stalled out as contenders and went through the whole Simmons drama is they had a lack of perimeter ball-handlers who were threats to score in the half court. In the regular season, this is fine but against good teams in the playoffs these are the types of weaknesses that are glaring.

In an even higher sense on why I think nailing down your ball-handlers is important is that I think role players who can space the floor and get points through the flow are great in maximizing offense while playing off of ball-handlers. However, you don't have the right ball-handlers or you don't have enough good ball-handlers...well then what do players like McDaniels do? It wouldn't be pretty.

I agree that I thought Nowell was going to walk into the NBA and hit 40%. He doesn't have to be at 40%, especially if he's creating a lot of offense for himself and others. I agree that he really just needs to be at ~36% that's one of the big things I've found looking at league data. I'm not sure if this comparison will work for you, but I'm kinda getting Bradley Beal vibes from Nowell at least stylistically. They feel like they move similar and while Beal was a lights out shooter earlier in his career now he's very much an average 3 point shooter by percentage but still a really good scorer.

I think, as you said, because Nowell can take all of those types of midrange shots and is athletic going to the rim and has a floater game and all of these things that he will be a pretty consistent scorer. It feels like his 3pt percentages may vary around a little bit even though he is a really good perimeter shooter and can go 6-9 from 3 on any night. I agree with your other takes on Nowell as well. I need to get a better feel for his ball handling.

He's 22! Crazy!

[winforlose]

Thanks, take your time on the Ant topic. I think the sky is the limit for Nowell because he has all of the tools. He does have a couple of weaknesses, but I think it's worth letting him try to figure things out. I think the worst case for Nowell is that he's a streaky shooter but can still provide really good shot creation, playmaking, and offense running a second unit. I'm not attached to Beasley by any means other than the rationalization that 3 point shooting is variable and we've seen Beasley be a lights out 3 point shooter for months before. I wouldn't prioritize Beasley if we can move him and get a piece that's more valuable. However, for now I'd rather keep him than Okogie for example.

I agree that McDaniels and Nowell are competing for two different spots largely. I'm just excited that the Wolves appear to be developing another above average rotation player from a late pick. The McDaniels comment was just in reference to the idea that Nowell is sliding up in offensive responsibility.

I think what’s so great about MCD is he never needs to score a single point to be extremely valuable. Unlike a Nowell or Beasley whose production determines their value on a given night, MCD’s defense and rebounding potential make him like V8. Granted MCD has a lot of work to do to match V8 on the glass, but as long as he can knock down the corner 3 or get to the rim off the dribble teams must respect MCD the way they don’t respect JO.

Nowell had me believing he was a 40% + 3 point shooter after his outstanding Iowa numbers. That said, he doesn’t really need to above 35/36% to be dangerous. With his close out skills and mid range game he is a threat from anywhere. But the thing we didn’t talk about that you probably mentioned above is his passing. Nowell is showing PG level awareness and passing more and more often. He isn’t there yet with his handle, (it is good, but he runs into trouble against real pressure or double teams,) but I believe that will continue to improve with time and usage. Nowell is also nowhere near his true potential. The kid is what 22? Give him 3 years and 20+ minutes per game, then watch out.

I agree on your first paragraph about McDaniels as well as the point at the end about Beasley/Nowell. Guys that can make an impact without needing the ball are extremely important role players to find. I think we talk a lot about those role players, however as I 've said before in a couple of my long posts I've really come around in recent months to a change of opinion in how important I think it is to also have guys who can create their own shot efficiently from different levels on the court with bonus points if they can be a positive playmaker as well.

I think perimeter scorers drive the NBA right now and having multiple ball-handlers in multiple different lineups is crucial. For example, one of the biggest reasons why the Sixers stalled out as contenders and went through the whole Simmons drama is they had a lack of perimeter ball-handlers who were threats to score in the half court. In the regular season, this is fine but against good teams in the playoffs these are the types of weaknesses that are glaring.

In an even higher sense on why I think nailing down your ball-handlers is important is that I think role players who can space the floor and get points through the flow are great in maximizing offense while playing off of ball-handlers. However, you don't have the right ball-handlers or you don't have enough good ball-handlers...well then what do players like McDaniels do? It wouldn't be pretty.

I agree that I thought Nowell was going to walk into the NBA and hit 40%. He doesn't have to be at 40%, especially if he's creating a lot of offense for himself and others. I agree that he really just needs to be at ~36% that's one of the big things I've found looking at league data. I'm not sure if this comparison will work for you, but I'm kinda getting Bradley Beal vibes from Nowell at least stylistically. They feel like they move similar and while Beal was a lights out shooter earlier in his career now he's very much an average 3 point shooter by percentage but still a really good scorer.

I think, as you said, because Nowell can take all of those types of midrange shots and is athletic going to the rim and has a floater game and all of these things that he will be a pretty consistent scorer. It feels like his 3pt percentages may vary around a little bit even though he is a really good perimeter shooter and can go 6-9 from 3 on any night. I agree with your other takes on Nowell as well. I need to get a better feel for his ball handling.

He's 22! Crazy!

It’s hard for me to pin down a Nowell comparison because I feel like his game changes a bit day to day. One day he is all about driving and pulling up. The next he really wants to get to the rim and use the glass. His defense is also a bit to all over place for comparison. I am not sure I see Beal, but I haven’t watched enough Beal to know one way or the other.
If I had to pick someone I would almost say Dlo. He doesn’t launch like Dlo does and his shot motion is different. But his shot selection and the way he negotiates his handle is similar. Again, not a perfect comparison, but one that I think works.

To answer your question, I have always believed the game is won at the 1 and 5. The PG if he is doing his job properly makes the entire team better by putting people in positions to succeed (look at Dlo and V8 yesterday.) The C especially in old school BB is the rebounding force, rim protector, and PNR king. You look at what Shaq did with Kobe and the inside outside and you see the impact a center can have. While it is true that the league is moving away from the traditional center, the big man who can shoot, rebound, draw opposing bigs out of the lane, and rim protect is a unicorn but a game changer. Hell, look at Rudy. The guy has limited offensive tools, but totally changes the entire gameplan for basically every team.

All of the above being true, without a ball handler who can properly run point guys like MCD depend on either backing down their opponents or relying on a big like KAT who demands a double and then kicks out. You have seen the lineup with Bev and Dlo, and with Dlo and Beasley. You know as well as I do having another ball handler who can penetrate and dish is huge.

[minimus]

Where is Jedzzz? He should be proud about Nowell

[winforlose]

Where is Jedzzz? He should be proud about Nowell

I suspect he is still sore about JMAC.

[moss_is_1]

Nowell is a certified scorer. He can hit 3s, but is reliant on them like Beasley. He has a solid handle and is a good athlete and has made strides defensively. Would love to see him continue to improve his handle and shooting.

Right now i like that he has improved enough to be the good kind of tweener. He can play off the ball and he can run the 2nd unit at times.

[minimus]

Where is Jedzzz? He should be proud about Nowell

I suspect he is still sore about JMAC.

Why?

[winforlose]

Where is Jedzzz? He should be proud about Nowell

I suspect he is still sore about JMAC.

Why?

Jed and I were in lock step about Nowell but we disagreed about JMAC. I said he was good a 3rd string option at best and worthy of a bare minimum deal with a ton of team favorable options. I was not alone in this opinion, multiple other posters agreed with me. Jed contended that JMAC deserved closer to what we paid V8 this year and that he should be the primary backup (second string PG,) and that he was much more talented then any of us gave him credit for. While I wouldn’t say the conversations were overly hostile, they certainly got past the point of friendly discussion. He seemed to take our rejection of his position personally.

From my perspective it is a shame. He and I really seemed to agree on Nowell. We just couldn’t find common ground on JMAC.