RealGM

The general consensus is that the Wolves gave up too much in Rudy Gobert trade, largely because of the number of picks involved. The Wolves gave up unprotected picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, and a top 5 protected pick in 2029. To get a sense of the expected valuation of these picks I did some research. I went back and looked at the 2010 Western Conference Playoff teams to get an idea of what they would have traded away in the hypothetical equivalent of a Rudy Gobert trade in the 2010 offseason. These teams included the Lakers, Jazz, Suns, Spurs, Mavericks, Blazers, Thunder, and Nuggets. Although the Wolves only gave up 4 years of future picks, I included a fifth year--9 years out in my research. Thus, in this hypothetical we presume a trade of five future draft picks, sent out every other year pursuant to the Stepien rule: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019.

Here is a summary of my findings:

The average draft position was 17.3. However, if you remove the one intentionally tanking team--the LA Lakers' picks for 2015 thru 2019--the average draft position becomes 18.5. Arguably there are some years where the Suns were tanking too, specifically 2013, but there is no doubt the Lakers were on a full scale tanking rebuild and not trying to win. So they should be excluded here.

The highest draft pick was #2-- the Lakers twice--in both years that they were tanking. If you disqualify years where teams were arguably tanking, the Lakers in 2015 through 2019, and the Suns in 2013, then the highest picks were Suns 2017 (Josh Jackson #4), Suns 2019 (Culver #6-traded to MN) and Nuggets 2015 (Mudiay #7).

Of the 40 players in the sample, the best players were Rudy Gobert #27(!), Devin Booker-#13, and Donovan Mitchell #13. Ironically, two of those picks, Gobert and Mitchell, were traded by our current GM Tim Connelly to the Utah Jazz on draft night. Denver would have had the best track record in the years analyzed had they not traded those picks. After Mitchell, there is a drop off to CJ McCollum #10 and then D'Angelo Russell #2 and Lonzo Ball #2 taken by the tanking Lakers.

Of the 40 players sampled, only 1 player -- Devin Booker -- made an all star team on the same team that drafted him. If you include draft night trades, then that includes Gobert and Mitchell.

My conclusion based on my research is that draft picks are significantly overvalued. Just like when you buy a new car and it loses value the minute you drive it off the lot, I would argue that the draft pick/player loses value the moment a player is selected and that, in the aggregate, the value of the plater selected depreciates in value over time. The best thing a non-tanking team can do to maximize the value of draft picks is to trade them for established, win now players. [I added the caveat non-tanking, because a tanking team is prone to draft at the top of the lottery where there is a much higher likelihood of drafting a star player. In the modern NBA, just about all top 5 picks are tanking and/or long term rebuilding teams.]

Here is a detailed breakdown of the picks.

UTAH

2011 –Alec Burks #12
2013 – Shabazz Muhammad #14 (traded to MN in Trey Burke deal)
2015 – Trey Lyles #15
2017—Tyler Lydon #24 (traded away)
2019—Dairus Bazley #23 (traded away)

Lakers

2011—Jajuan Johnson #27
2013—Sergey Karasev #19
2015—D’Angelo Russell #2 (*tanking)
2017—Lonzo Ball #2 (*tanking)
2019—De’Andre Hunter #4 (*tanking)

OKC

2011—Reggie Jackson #24
2013 –Archie Goodwin #29
2015—Cameron Payne #14
2017—Terrence Ferguson #21
2019 –Brandon Clarke #21 (traded to Memphis)

Denver

2011 –Kenneth Faried #22
2013—Rudy Gobert #27 (traded to Utah)
2015—Emmauel Mudiay #7
2017—Donovan Mitchell #13 (traded to Utah)
2019—Mifondu Kabengegele #27

Phoenix

2011—Markieff Morris #13
2013—Alex Len #5 (*tanking)
2015—Devin Booker #13
2017—Josh Jackson #4
2019—Jarret Culver (traded to MN) #6

Portland

2011—Nolan Smith #21
2013—CJ McCollum #10
2015—Rondae Hollis Jefferson #23
2017—Justin Jackson #15
2019—Nassir Little #25

Dallas

2011—Jordan Hamilton #26
2013—Kelly Olynyk #13
2015—Justin Anderson #21
2017—Dennis Smith Jr. #9
2019—Cam Reddish #10

San Antonio

2011—Cory Joseph #29
2013—Livio Jean-Charles #28
2015—Nikola Milutinov #26
2017—Derrick White #29
2019—Luka Samanic #19

Krapinsky wrote:The general consensus is that the Wolves gave up too much in Rudy Gobert trade, largely because of the number of picks involved. The Wolves gave up unprotected picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, and a top 5 protected pick in 2029. To get a sense of the expected valuation of these picks I did some research. I went back and looked at the 2010 Western Conference Playoff teams to get an idea of what they would have traded away in the hypothetical equivalent of a Rudy Gobert trade in the 2010 offseason. These teams included the Lakers, Jazz, Suns, Spurs, Mavericks, Blazers, Thunder, and Nuggets. Although the Wolves only gave up 4 years of future picks, I included a fifth year--9 years out in my research. Thus, in this hypothetical we presume a trade of five future draft picks, sent out every other year pursuant to the Stepien rule: 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019.

Here is a summary of my findings:

The average draft position was 17.3. However, if you remove the one intentionally tanking team--the LA Lakers' picks for 2015 thru 2019--the average draft position becomes 18.5. Arguably there are some years where the Suns were tanking too, specifically 2013, but there is no doubt the Lakers were on a full scale tanking rebuild and not trying to win. So they should be excluded here.

The highest draft pick was #2-- the Lakers twice--in both years that they were tanking. If you disqualify years where teams were arguably tanking, the Lakers in 2015 through 2019, and the Suns in 2013, then the highest picks were Suns 2017 (Josh Jackson #4), Suns 2019 (Culver #6-traded to MN) and Nuggets 2015 (Mudiay #7).

Of the 40 players in the sample, the best players were Rudy Gobert #27(!), Devin Booker-#13, and Donovan Mitchell #13. Ironically, two of those picks, Gobert and Mitchell, were traded by our current GM Tim Connelly to the Utah Jazz on draft night. Denver would have had the best track record in the years analyzed had they not traded those picks. After Mitchell, there is a drop off to CJ McCollum #10 and then D'Angelo Russell #2 and Lonzo Ball #2 taken by the tanking Lakers.

Of the 40 players sampled, only 1 player -- Devin Booker -- made an all star team on the same team that drafted him. If you include draft night trades, then that includes Gobert and Mitchell.

My conclusion based on my research is that draft picks are significantly overvalued. Just like when you buy a new car and it loses value the minute you drive it off the lot, I would argue that the draft pick/player loses value the moment a player is selected and that, in the aggregate, the value of the plater selected depreciates in value over time. The best thing a non-tanking team can do to maximize the value of draft picks is to trade them for established, win now players. [I added the caveat non-tanking, because a tanking team is prone to draft at the top of the lottery where there is a much higher likelihood of drafting a star player. In the modern NBA, just about all top 5 picks are tanking and/or long term rebuilding teams.]

Here is a detailed breakdown of the picks.

UTAH

2011 –Alec Burks #12
2013 – Shabazz Muhammad #14 (traded to MN in Trey Burke deal)
2015 – Trey Lyles #15
2017—Tyler Lydon #24 (traded away)
2019—Dairus Bazley #23 (traded away)

Lakers

2011—Jajuan Johnson #27
2013—Sergey Karasev #19
2015—D’Angelo Russell #2 (*tanking)
2017—Lonzo Ball #2 (*tanking)
2019—De’Andre Hunter #4 (*tanking)

OKC

2011—Reggie Jackson #24
2013 –Archie Goodwin #29
2015—Cameron Payne #14
2017—Terrence Ferguson #21
2019 –Brandon Clarke #21 (traded to Memphis)

Denver

2011 –Kenneth Faried #22
2013—Rudy Gobert #27 (traded to Utah)
2015—Emmauel Mudiay #7
2017—Donovan Mitchell #13 (traded to Utah)
2019—Mifondu Kabengegele #27

Phoenix

2011—Markieff Morris #13
2013—Alex Len #5 (*tanking)
2015—Devin Booker #13
2017—Josh Jackson #4
2019—Jarret Culver (traded to MN) #6

Portland

2011—Nolan Smith #21
2013—CJ McCollum #10
2015—Rondae Hollis Jefferson #23
2017—Justin Jackson #15
2019—Nassir Little #25

Dallas

2011—Jordan Hamilton #26
2013—Kelly Olynyk #13
2015—Justin Anderson #21
2017—Dennis Smith Jr. #9
2019—Cam Reddish #10

San Antonio

2011—Cory Joseph #29
2013—Livio Jean-Charles #28
2015—Nikola Milutinov #26
2017—Derrick White #29
2019—Luka Samanic #19

Put simply picks are not just valuable for the players they generate. Right or wrong they are a form of currency often more valuable than individual players. For example, 3 firsts and DG just bought Dejounte Murray. The Hawks didn’t even keep DG. Another example is our four buying Rudy without giving up any core players. Bev was a one year expiring and his stock took a nose dive with his off court BS this offseason (including hinting at wanting to play with JB in Miami.) Beasley was a huge disappointment relative to the money we paid. We paid for potential and aside from an above average 2nd half of the regular season we didn’t get much for that money. V8 is a team friendly deal, and a great defender/rebounder, but his lack of offense killed us time and again. Picks may be fools gold, but as long as people treat them as real gold, the value remains.

In another thread I mentioned how there is no real comparison for the Gobert trade, given that he is still in his prime, did not request a trade, and still had years left on his contract.

Connelly on Barreiro -- said something to the effect of -- offers like the Wolves four pick offer for Gobert are made all the time, but teams always say no because they don't want to trade their best players.

Krapinsky wrote:In another thread I mentioned how there is no real comparison for the Gobert trade, given that he is still in his prime, did not request a trade, and still had years left on his contract.

Connelly on Barreiro -- said something to the effect of -- offers like the Wolves four pick offer for Gobert are made all the time, but teams always say no because they don't want to trade their best players.

Except when they do. Plenty of teams blow it and seek high draft capital for their best players. Notice they don’t often ask for a lot of good players in return or even young players. More often then not it is draft picks as compensation. Any given day OKC could call up a team like Utah and offer 4 firsts for DM. Pairing SGA with DM and Chet, plus all the other role players could be dangerous. DM is not the only or the best name, just the easiest example. Four firsts represents a we will decide later who/what we get back, not necessarily four selections.

Interesting post and analysis.


Just don’t do the wolves from 2010-2019.

The simple fact is trading picks in 2023, 25, 27 and 29 doesn't mean you are banned from those drafts. You can still - in a hundred different ways - acquire picks in those drafts and participate. Once you trade a player like Jaden or even Russell or KAT, you lose that player. You can't play him anymore, you can't trade him, he's gone. I will always root for draft pick trades over player trades.

Now, trading away Kessler and Vando - that stings.

NebWolvesFan wrote:The simple fact is trading picks in 2023, 25, 27 and 29 doesn't mean you are banned from those drafts. You can still - in a hundred different ways - acquire picks in those drafts and participate.

This is one of my biggest things I hope people keep in mind. I said it very early on. People get so attached to picks, but forget that trading away a pick doesn't mean we can't get one back down the road.

Since Tim Connelly took over in 2013, how many times did Denver draft in the first round where they finished in the standings? Three times in nine drafts. How could they possibly develop a winning team with trading all of those picks?!

2013: Sold the pick (Rudy Gobert)
2014: Traded by Ujiri for Iguodala
2015: Emanuel Mudiay
2016: Pick swap by Ujiri
2017: Draft-day trade
2018: Michael Porter Jr.
2019: Traded at trade deadline
2020: Traded for Jerami Grant
2021: Bones Hyland

Klomp wrote:

NebWolvesFan wrote:The simple fact is trading picks in 2023, 25, 27 and 29 doesn't mean you are banned from those drafts. You can still - in a hundred different ways - acquire picks in those drafts and participate.

This is one of my biggest things I hope people keep in mind. I said it very early on. People get so attached to picks, but forget that trading away a pick doesn't mean we can't get one back down the road.

Since Tim Connelly took over in 2013, how many times did Denver draft in the first round where they finished in the standings? Three times in nine drafts. How could they possibly develop a winning team with trading all of those picks?!

2013: Sold the pick (Rudy Gobert)
2014: Traded by Ujiri for Iguodala
2015: Emanuel Mudiay
2016: Pick swap by Ujiri
2017: Draft-day trade
2018: Michael Porter Jr.
2019: Traded at trade deadline
2020: Traded for Jerami Grant
2021: Bones Hyland

I could try and explain it again, but the article linked to below explains it very well. Long story short, picks are power to make smaller changes around the margins. Fewer picks means more locked in.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2022/7/7/23197681/dangelo-russell-biggest-winner-rudy-gobert-trade-wolves-jazz

winforlose wrote:

Krapinsky wrote:In another thread I mentioned how there is no real comparison for the Gobert trade, given that he is still in his prime, did not request a trade, and still had years left on his contract.

Connelly on Barreiro -- said something to the effect of -- offers like the Wolves four pick offer for Gobert are made all the time, but teams always say no because they don't want to trade their best players.

Except when they do. Plenty of teams blow it and seek high draft capital for their best players. Notice they don’t often ask for a lot of good players in return or even young players. More often then not it is draft picks as compensation. Any given day OKC could call up a team like Utah and offer 4 firsts for DM. Pairing SGA with DM and Chet, plus all the other role players could be dangerous. DM is not the only or the best name, just the easiest example. Four firsts represents a we will decide later who/what we get back, not necessarily four selections.

But not when their best players are all-NBA caliber, under a long term contract, and still in their prime. It doesn't happen unless they force their way out.

Krapinsky wrote:

winforlose wrote:

Krapinsky wrote:In another thread I mentioned how there is no real comparison for the Gobert trade, given that he is still in his prime, did not request a trade, and still had years left on his contract.

Connelly on Barreiro -- said something to the effect of -- offers like the Wolves four pick offer for Gobert are made all the time, but teams always say no because they don't want to trade their best players.

Except when they do. Plenty of teams blow it and seek high draft capital for their best players. Notice they don’t often ask for a lot of good players in return or even young players. More often then not it is draft picks as compensation. Any given day OKC could call up a team like Utah and offer 4 firsts for DM. Pairing SGA with DM and Chet, plus all the other role players could be dangerous. DM is not the only or the best name, just the easiest example. Four firsts represents a we will decide later who/what we get back, not necessarily four selections.

But not when their best players are all-NBA caliber, under a long term contract, and still in their prime. It doesn't happen unless they force their way out.

Memphis blew it up, Houston blew it up, OKC, Detroit, just off the top of my head.

winforlose wrote:I could try and explain it again, but the article linked to below explains it very well. Long story short, picks are power to make smaller changes around the margins. Fewer picks means more locked in.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2022/7/7/23197681/dangelo-russell-biggest-winner-rudy-gobert-trade-wolves-jazz

I have no idea what you are trying to say here.

There's a lot of fear that we are locked in now. That there is no chance for roster growth. Point being, the greatest chance for growth is in our two young guys Edwards and McDaniels. But we also have Nowell and Reid who are still just 23 this upcoming season, plus rookies Minott (19) and Spagnolo (19). While not picks, these four can also be dealt in moves around the margins, whether for other players or for future draft capital.

Klomp wrote:

winforlose wrote:I could try and explain it again, but the article linked to below explains it very well. Long story short, picks are power to make smaller changes around the margins. Fewer picks means more locked in.

https://www.canishoopus.com/2022/7/7/23197681/dangelo-russell-biggest-winner-rudy-gobert-trade-wolves-jazz

I have no idea what you are trying to say here.

There's a lot of fear that we are locked in now. That there is no chance for roster growth. Point being, the greatest chance for growth is in our two young guys Edwards and McDaniels. But we also have Nowell and Reid who are still just 23 this upcoming season, plus rookies Minott (19) and Spagnolo (19). While not picks, these four can also be dealt in moves around the margins, whether for other players or for future draft capital.

The point is if you keep one or two of those picks then you can leverage them without having to give anything of value up in return. Or at least give up less value. Naz and a pick gets you more than Naz does alone. Likewise a first and an expiring Prince save you needing to trade MCD or any of the other names you mentioned. Picks are their own currency and though perhaps overvalued they are powerful.

winforlose wrote:

Krapinsky wrote:

winforlose wrote:
Except when they do. Plenty of teams blow it and seek high draft capital for their best players. Notice they don’t often ask for a lot of good players in return or even young players. More often then not it is draft picks as compensation. Any given day OKC could call up a team like Utah and offer 4 firsts for DM. Pairing SGA with DM and Chet, plus all the other role players could be dangerous. DM is not the only or the best name, just the easiest example. Four firsts represents a we will decide later who/what we get back, not necessarily four selections.

But not when their best players are all-NBA caliber, under a long term contract, and still in their prime. It doesn't happen unless they force their way out.

Memphis blew it up, Houston blew it up, OKC, Detroit, just off the top of my head.

Memphis is one I didn't think of and is a fair point. Though that was 14 years ago now and the Gasol trade was inexplicable at the time it happened. If 100% said we overpaid for Gobert, 100% said the Lakers underpaid for Gasol to the point where Stern should have vetoed that trade too.

Houston blew it up because Harden forced his way out. Literally quit on his team and had a break up press conference.

OKC lost KD in free agency. Harden did not emerge as an all star by the time they traded him.

Not sure what Detroit team/players you could even be referring to in this analogy.

Krapinsky wrote:

winforlose wrote:

Krapinsky wrote:
But not when their best players are all-NBA caliber, under a long term contract, and still in their prime. It doesn't happen unless they force their way out.

Memphis blew it up, Houston blew it up, OKC, Detroit, just off the top of my head.

Memphis is one I didn't think of and is a fair point. Though that was 14 years ago now and the Gasol trade was inexplicable at the time it happened. If 100% said we overpaid for Gobert, 100% said the Lakers underpaid for Gasol to the point where Stern should have vetoed that trade too.

Houston blew it up because Harden forced his way out. Literally quit on his team and had a break up press conference.

OKC lost KD in free agency. Harden did not emerge as an all star by the time they traded him.

Not sure what Detroit team/players you could even be referring to in this analogy.

OKC traded George and Westbrook away for a ton of draft capital. I should have said Orlando sending out Vuc, Fornier and Gordon. I was talking baseball on the phone at the time and was thinking of the tigers beating the guardians yesterday. My bad. The Pistons fell apart on their own.

winforlose wrote:

Krapinsky wrote:

winforlose wrote:
Memphis blew it up, Houston blew it up, OKC, Detroit, just off the top of my head.

Memphis is one I didn't think of and is a fair point. Though that was 14 years ago now and the Gasol trade was inexplicable at the time it happened. If 100% said we overpaid for Gobert, 100% said the Lakers underpaid for Gasol to the point where Stern should have vetoed that trade too.

Houston blew it up because Harden forced his way out. Literally quit on his team and had a break up press conference.

OKC lost KD in free agency. Harden did not emerge as an all star by the time they traded him.

Not sure what Detroit team/players you could even be referring to in this analogy.

OKC traded George and Westbrook away for a ton of draft capital. I should have said Orlando sending out Vuc, Fornier and Gordon. I was talking baseball on the phone at the time and was thinking of the tigers beating the guardians yesterday. My bad. The Pistons fell apart on their own.

George went to Presti and requested a trade. They then traded Westbrook the next day for Chris Paul and picks.

None of the players Orlando traded were close to all-nba caliber.

Krapinsky wrote:

winforlose wrote:

Krapinsky wrote:
Memphis is one I didn't think of and is a fair point. Though that was 14 years ago now and the Gasol trade was inexplicable at the time it happened. If 100% said we overpaid for Gobert, 100% said the Lakers underpaid for Gasol to the point where Stern should have vetoed that trade too.

Houston blew it up because Harden forced his way out. Literally quit on his team and had a break up press conference.

OKC lost KD in free agency. Harden did not emerge as an all star by the time they traded him.

Not sure what Detroit team/players you could even be referring to in this analogy.

OKC traded George and Westbrook away for a ton of draft capital. I should have said Orlando sending out Vuc, Fornier and Gordon. I was talking baseball on the phone at the time and was thinking of the tigers beating the guardians yesterday. My bad. The Pistons fell apart on their own.

George went to Presti and requested a trade. They then traded Westbrook the next day for Chris Paul and picks.

None of the players Orlando traded were close to all-nba caliber.

Remind me what happened next with CP3? As for Magic stars not being all NBA, you are correct. But Vuc was an all star, Aaron Gordon was a valuable player, and Fournier was still considered valuable at the time.

winforlose wrote:

Krapinsky wrote:

winforlose wrote:
OKC traded George and Westbrook away for a ton of draft capital. I should have said Orlando sending out Vuc, Fornier and Gordon. I was talking baseball on the phone at the time and was thinking of the tigers beating the guardians yesterday. My bad. The Pistons fell apart on their own.

George went to Presti and requested a trade. They then traded Westbrook the next day for Chris Paul and picks.

None of the players Orlando traded were close to all-nba caliber.

Remind me what happened next with CP3? As for Magic stars not being all NBA, you are correct. But Vuc was an all star, Aaron Gordon was a valuable player, and Fournier was still considered valuable at the time.

I'm not saying teams don't trade good players and choose to rebuild. Of course they do. But it's a truly rare occasion where a team trades an all-nba player, i.e. 'franchise player', still in their prime. You still see Portland clinging to Dame, the Wizards clinging to Beal, etc. because they have requested trades yet.

Klomp wrote:

NebWolvesFan wrote:The simple fact is trading picks in 2023, 25, 27 and 29 doesn't mean you are banned from those drafts. You can still - in a hundred different ways - acquire picks in those drafts and participate.

This is one of my biggest things I hope people keep in mind. I said it very early on. People get so attached to picks, but forget that trading away a pick doesn't mean we can't get one back down the road.

Since Tim Connelly took over in 2013, how many times did Denver draft in the first round where they finished in the standings? Three times in nine drafts. How could they possibly develop a winning team with trading all of those picks?!

2013: Sold the pick (Rudy Gobert)
2014: Traded by Ujiri for Iguodala
2015: Emanuel Mudiay
2016: Pick swap by Ujiri
2017: Draft-day trade
2018: Michael Porter Jr.
2019: Traded at trade deadline
2020: Traded for Jerami Grant
2021: Bones Hyland

Keep in mind Denver has one of the cheapest owners in the NBA. If recent moves are a sign of the new ownership here--they aren't cheap--which gives Connelly additional flexibility and creativity.