RealGM

There has been a lot of talk on a lot of threads about who to extend and for how much. I figure we contain it here and start with some baseline numbers.

I will link to the hoopshype salary page below. But by simply adding the numbers assuming we pick up options for Ant and MCD and no one else the salary commitment for next year is $110,133,512. This pays Gobert, KAT, Ant, Anderson, Moore, McDaniels, McLaughlin, and Minott.

I have seen projections of the cap between 128-133 and the tax between 158 and 161. For the purpose of this discussion let’s average those numbers. The projected cap is therefore 130.5 mil and the projected tax line is 159.5 mil.

This does not include the 7.65 million un-guaranteed on Prince’s deal or the Knight deal at 1,997,238. The combined value is 9,647,238. Added to the previous number of 110,133,512 = $119,780,750.

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/minnesota_timberwolves/

Confirmed by

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/minnesota-timberwolves/cap/2023/

Summary with 10 players our payroll is $119,780,750 with a projected cap of 130.5 for our purposes but with a potential of 128-133 depending on the source.

130,500,000 - 119,780,750 = $10,719,250.

I think we’ll clearly operate as an over the cap team, and the real top of our budget will be the $160+ luxury threshold, which we will avoid at all costs to avoid starting the repeater tax clock.

There's a sticky capology thread at the top of the page for stuff like this that could use some love.
We can reasonably avoid the lux this year and next year if we don't go crazy with trades/extensions.
I think we plan to play the tax the 2 years after that with KAT's supermax and ANT''s (hopeful) rookie max kicking in in addition to the last 2 years of Gobert's deal.

Those repeater penalties are brutal, so I expect 22-23 and 23-24 to be tax avoidance years and 24-25 and 25-26 to be tax years if things keep going well.

younggunsmn wrote:There's a sticky capology thread at the top of the page for stuff like this that could use some love.
We can reasonably avoid the lux this year and next year if we don't go crazy with trades/extensions.
I think we plan to play the tax the 2 years after that with KAT's supermax and ANT''s (hopeful) rookie max kicking in in addition to the last 2 years of Gobert's deal.

Those repeater penalties are brutal, so I expect 22-23 and 23-24 to be tax avoidance years and 24-25 and 25-26 to be tax years if things keep going well.

I thought about using the sticky, but this a thread where we can discuss extensions, and cap strategy moving forward.

I agree we avoid the tax this year, but I think you are forgetting about the new TV deal expanding the cap/tax lines. This SHOULD allow us to go into the tax next year without too much fear. Also with half the league going into the tax I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw changes to the tax in the next CBA.

winforlose wrote:

younggunsmn wrote:There's a sticky capology thread at the top of the page for stuff like this that could use some love.
We can reasonably avoid the lux this year and next year if we don't go crazy with trades/extensions.
I think we plan to play the tax the 2 years after that with KAT's supermax and ANT''s (hopeful) rookie max kicking in in addition to the last 2 years of Gobert's deal.

Those repeater penalties are brutal, so I expect 22-23 and 23-24 to be tax avoidance years and 24-25 and 25-26 to be tax years if things keep going well.

I thought about using the sticky, but this a thread where we can discuss extensions, and cap strategy moving forward.

I agree we avoid the tax this year, but I think you are forgetting about the new TV deal expanding the cap/tax lines. This SHOULD allow us to go into the tax next year without too much fear. Also with half the league going into the tax I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw changes to the tax in the next CBA.

I expect the tax in the next CBA to be harsher than it is now, owners don't want to have to pay hundreds of millions in tax if they want to compete with the Warriors of the world .

andyhop wrote:

winforlose wrote:

younggunsmn wrote:There's a sticky capology thread at the top of the page for stuff like this that could use some love.
We can reasonably avoid the lux this year and next year if we don't go crazy with trades/extensions.
I think we plan to play the tax the 2 years after that with KAT's supermax and ANT''s (hopeful) rookie max kicking in in addition to the last 2 years of Gobert's deal.

Those repeater penalties are brutal, so I expect 22-23 and 23-24 to be tax avoidance years and 24-25 and 25-26 to be tax years if things keep going well.

I thought about using the sticky, but this a thread where we can discuss extensions, and cap strategy moving forward.

I agree we avoid the tax this year, but I think you are forgetting about the new TV deal expanding the cap/tax lines. This SHOULD allow us to go into the tax next year without too much fear. Also with half the league going into the tax I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw changes to the tax in the next CBA.

I expect the tax in the next CBA to be harsher than it is now, owners don't want to have to pay hundreds of millions in tax if they want to compete with the Warriors of the world .

Not saying I disagree, but I could also see that backfiring. Now teams willing to pay the higher total get even more advantage as other teams are even less able to be profitable and follow suit.

winforlose wrote:

andyhop wrote:

winforlose wrote:
I thought about using the sticky, but this a thread where we can discuss extensions, and cap strategy moving forward.

I agree we avoid the tax this year, but I think you are forgetting about the new TV deal expanding the cap/tax lines. This SHOULD allow us to go into the tax next year without too much fear. Also with half the league going into the tax I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw changes to the tax in the next CBA.

I expect the tax in the next CBA to be harsher than it is now, owners don't want to have to pay hundreds of millions in tax if they want to compete with the Warriors of the world .

Not saying I disagree, but I could also see that backfiring. Now teams willing to pay the higher total get even more advantage as other teams are even less able to be profitable and follow suit.

Just going by what Lacob said about other owners reactions to the Warriors breaking how the system is supposed to work , I expect that owners are going to want to make repeater taxes in some way much more onerous than now to try and prevent anyone wanting to stay in the tax at any serious amount long term.