RealGM

Chapter one

“A talent for following the ways of yesterday is not sufficient to improve the world of today.” - King Wuling

As I said many times before rather be actively expressing my frustration in comments, where many fans are blaming, cursing and dooming, I prefer to note a few things in order to make my homework later. I let emotions trigger me, but I always see this as beginning of the path to knowledge, not the end.

Here are few things I have been thinking about recently:

1) we all know that NBA’s offensive Rating Floor is raising


2) teams in Western Conference have added a lot of offensive talent sometimes in expense of defensive talent.

DAL:
Kyrie - elite offence

DFS - 3&D
Dinwiddie - elite ISO scorer

LAL:
DLo, Beasley, Vando, Bamba - elite shooting
Beverley

PHO:
KD - elite offence

Bridges - elite 3&D
Cam Johnson - elite shooting

LAC:
Hyland, Gordon, Westbrook, Plumlee - shooting / bench scoring

Jackson, Kennard, Wall

MEM:
Kennard - elite shooting

3) SAC-LAC have just scored 176 and 175 points. SAC particularly have been successful this season even without good defense. Now let’s examine our roster. Our top scorers are:

Ant - 25 ppg,
Towns - 21 ppg
DLo - 18 ppg
Gobert - 13.4 ppg
MCD - 11.4ppg
Nowell - 11ppg
Reid - 10 ppg
Conley - 9 ppg
KA - 8.5 ppg
TP - 8.5 ppg

Right now we are playing without our 2nd best scorer Towns and we just traded our 3rd best scorer DLo. So Finch has to create/get almost 40 points from remaining players. Our main bench scorer Nowell has not made a jump as scorer we hoped, so it is all weights on shoulder or 21yo Edwards and 22yo MCD. Because lets be real neither Gobert nor Conley/KA/TP/Reid have potential to improve significantly as scorers. Then I stumbled across an tweet:
?s=20

First question I have: “who are defenders“ and “who are runners“

Defenders: Gobert-KA-MCD-Edwards-Conley
Runners: Reid-TP-MCD-Nowell-JMac

But the real question here considering offensive explosion are our defenders good enough to be core of team identity in current NBA? Let mу explain, we have been mentioning UTA top offense and top defense from 2020-21 who were No. 1 Seed with offensive rating 116.5. This year MIN has offensive rating 113.1 (21th) in 2021, and considering all problems and injuries I think it is not a bad, but in 2020-21 they would be top-10 (!!!) offense. Same question goes to “runners“: considering offensive explosion are they good enough in current NBA even for bench standards? For instance, NAW had an efficient last game 13pts, 5-10 FG, 3-4 3PT, good defense, but questionable decision making. Good shooting and defense this is all I want from him as bench player, but is it enough? I also must mention, that usually defensive minded team try to slow down game, but MIN are top5 in terms of pace. Part of me is wondering whether a team can slow down offense without great postup players. This year Doncic is leading ALL players in postup, and DAL play slowest pace in NBA. Our best postup player was precovid Towns, before he lost weight.

Let me paraphrase: are defenders good enough to lock down opponent and are runners good enough to outscore opponents?

I see why aș workaround TC wanted to get Hyland, instant offense creator from the bench who can explode for 20+ points. It make sense.

Second question: how we can improve? 6 first quarters against DAL and WAS are good examples of how our team offense can function around Gobert, I liked ball movement, especially how we created open corner threes. The problem was two absolutely awful 4th quarters I have no idea why we feel here so insecure, show low IQ. Can Towns help here? Maybe, I honestly believe that Towns-KA-MCD-Edwads-NAW lineup can be successful in clutch, but Towns has not been able to build chemistry with new guys and from previous experience he is not most natural decision maker in the clutch, he always struggled to find balance between his own offense and involving others. Although he can be a real difference maker in terms of spacing and outside shooting (not creator) in clutch.

Final question: I am asking myself whether this is first and foremost identity crisis in MIN. Many are blaming Finch, but I wonder how in such situation you would build this identity? I really don’t know. Yes, he is often letting our team “play through, learn”. I wish he is more decisive with timeouts and substitutions, but here is another question: based on what criteria would you sub in/out? Effort level? He tried to play Rivers. Based on scoring need? Well, Nowell has gotten his minutes based on this. Defense, decision making? I really dont know. Does he even have enough resources to replace Towns and DLo scoring? Are these 40pts that we lost without Towns and DLo a big void to fill considering new level of offense raise this season?

Any ideas, thoughts are welcome. Sorry for logic chaos, I am a bit sick and tired.

P.S. I really dont know what we should do with Reid and Nowell. I like both guys, I appreciate hard work and effort. But are they difference makers for us? Can they be real runners/gunners?

Towns is pretty clearly out best scorer. How would the rest of the NBA look without their best scorer?

Colbinii wrote:Towns is pretty clearly out best scorer. How would the rest of the NBA look without their best scorer?

I guess it is good when we can argue who is our best scorer. Maybe this clear two star setup will help our team chemistry in terms of pecking order in offense.

minimus wrote:

Colbinii wrote:Towns is pretty clearly out best scorer. How would the rest of the NBA look without their best scorer?

I guess it is good when we can argue who is our best scorer. Maybe this clear two star setup will help our team chemistry in terms of pecking order in offense.

Towns over the past 4 years is averaging 25 PPG on 62 TS%

Edwards isn't close to that

Colbinii wrote:

minimus wrote:

Colbinii wrote:Towns is pretty clearly out best scorer. How would the rest of the NBA look without their best scorer?

I guess it is good when we can argue who is our best scorer. Maybe this clear two star setup will help our team chemistry in terms of pecking order in offense.

Towns over the past 4 years is averaging 25 PPG on 62 TS%

Edwards isn't close to that

Agree, Towns is more efficient, but they are very different in terms of shot creation. We learned from last playoffs that we need both Towns and Edwards to be efficient, but only Edwards has been able to consistently create fro himself under pressure. Unfortunately, both Towns and Edwards are far from consistent decision makers in clutch, because it requires balance between own offense, situational awareness, IQ and experience. Hope they both improve, but Edwards is already making big steps in right directions and Towns was good at involving Gobert which is very impressive sign. If I compare Towns and DLo approach to Gobert I should admit that I thought that DLo would be main beneficiary and main guy who would promote, advertise and adopt new reality. But I was very surprised that Towns was the grown man who lead new group, while DLo was negative and selfish.

minimus wrote:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

We had this problem before we Got Beasley, Pat and Van. we had trouble finding scoring in the 4th. with pat and Van they scored by getting steals and scoring off of those fast breaks. Now we're back to watching us lose in the 4th again. The people who've been in the organization over 4 years should have known all of this. But we have no consistency because we have guys come in and clean house every couple of years.
The team right now is trash. There won't be any consistency because the guys playing might not even be around next season. Outside of Towns, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden the other men are looking to get signed long term and have no loyalty here because this is clearly just a place of bad business.

Folklore wrote:

minimus wrote:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

We had this problem before we Got Beasley, Pat and Van. we had trouble finding scoring in the 4th. with pat and Van they scored by getting steals and scoring off of those fast breaks. Now we're back to watching us lose in the 4th again. The people who've been in the organization over 4 years should have known all of this. But we have no consistency because we have guys come in and clean house every couple of years.
The team right now is trash. There won't be any consistency because the guys playing might not even be around next season. Outside of Towns, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden the other men are looking to get signed long term and have no loyalty here because this is clearly just a place of bad business.

I am not sure what current problems and problems from Thibs/Ryan era have in common. Totally different schemas, players, coaches and FO. Still current coach and roster is the most successful MIN build in many years. This is a fact. Even without Towns we are still fighting.

We had three years of Towns, Russell and Edwards. Before that it was Towns and Wiggins. No continuity? McLaughlin, Nowell and Reid are playing for three years together. Vando and Beasley played two years here. As small market team MIN always will have difficult decisions, and I agree that Gobert trade was an overpay but I think everyone on this board understands why we trade DLo now. Also let's not pretend like this loyalty problem. It is always more about money and ego.

This team right now is mediocre and we are in serious problems. Since Connelly arrived the team is getting worse, two straight windows with bad moves.

I disliked Russell but you cannot trade him and let Ant as your only offensive menace and just when you have to make a push to the PO this teams collapses.

I have followed this team for many years, including the Kahn ones, but right now, it's the most frustrating Wolves team I have ever seen. Homes, Telfair or Brewer were trash but we had a very good and entertaining young squad and we traded it for ****.

minimus wrote:I am not sure what current problems and problems from Thibs/Ryan era have in common. Totally different schemas, players, coaches and FO. Still current coach and roster is the most successful MIN build in many years. This is a fact. Even without Towns we are still fighting.

We had three years of Towns, Russell and Edwards. Before that it was Towns and Wiggins. No continuity? McLaughlin, Nowell and Reid are playing for three years together. Vando and Beasley played two years here. As small market team MIN always will have difficult decisions, and I agree that Gobert trade was an overpay but I think everyone on this board understands why we trade DLo now. Also let's not pretend like this loyalty problem. It is always more about money and ego.

Let me fix that for you.

I am not sure what current problems and problems from Thibs/Ryan era have in common. Totally different schemas, players, coaches, years, jerseys and FO. Still current coach and roster is the most successful MIN build in many years. This is a fact only if you focus on the players we kept from last year developing...and not after we traded away our second scorer. Even without Towns we are still fighting, whatever that means. But let's act like this team has just been a well-oiled machine with only minor moves done here and there.

We had three years of Towns, Russell and Edwards. Now Towns and Edwards. Before that it was Towns and Wiggins Zach. Towns Wiggins Jimmy. Smitch, Thibs,Ryan then Finch, No continuity? McLaughlin, Nowell Vando, Beasley and Reid, are playing for three years, excuse me, Vando and Beasley are gone too. All teams may have difficult decisions, but lets ignore all the matters on how and why it's happening.
And I agree that Gobert trade was an overpay but I think everyone on this board understands the Dlo trade was another one of the many bad decisions because of the return. Also let's not pretend like this loyalty problem. It is always more about money and ego. Not about winning games and building a team with people who you can respect and learn from. Nope. greed rules.[/quote][/quote]


Ronald= every coach and bad GM
People=Fans and players
Food=Hope and consistency

...

Folklore wrote:
Let me fix that for you.

You have messed everything up lol

Chapter two

Considering all things I mentioned before I am asking myself: who is prototypical DPOY this year and what type of defense you can build around?

I believe that current DPOY must be some kind of hybrid between elite DROP defender, who can roam in space and switch on perimeter. You can build highly adaptive, proactive and versatile defense around him. With main goal to DISRUPT opponent offensive flow. JJJ is a perfect example here.



Bad: we dont have such hybrid big, although MCD can block shots and defend PoA, which makes entire solution more complex

Good: there are examples of teams that use traditional DROP big to build defense around. The best example here is MIL with Lopez who contests most 2pt shots in NBA 15.3(!!!), the second in this category is Zubac with 9.3, then Allen, Claxton, Turner, Kessler with 9.

The trick here is that Giannis can compliment Lopez, while Holiday is disciplined enough to defend PoA according to team plan. Our problem is that when MCD is responsible for PoA defense, we dont have luxury of elite roaming defender.



The big issue with our PoA defense is not skills or talent. First issue is discipline and experience, which leads to some unnecessary fouls. I'd argue that Grayson Allen or Jevon Carter have better physical tools than NAW or Moore. But our rookies are not ready to play consistently within team defensive scheme. It leaves us with Edwards, Conley, Nowell and Rivers as PoA defenders in MCD absence. Second issue is lack of defined offensive skills and role. Everytime Finch puts Rivers, Moore or NAW on the floor, it will be defense in expense of offense. It might be workarounded by given players defined role, but it is hard to make it work with young players. Thats why Rivers gets minutes, while Moore and NAW not.

Next question: can our turnovers problem be fixed? I still think that turnovers are by far our biggest problem. But it is more consequence of stagnant offense, execution. MIN is third worst NBA team in TOV%, turnovers per game, fourth worst in AST:TO rate, fouls per game (some fouls have similar to turnover effect - inability to execute offense or defense).

Bad: I think if we think about turnovers as main indicator of team chemistry it would be fair to say, that we have little chemistry right now. For instance, I always praised McLaughlin elite AST:TO rate, but last game he had one very dumb cross court, kick back assist that was easily intercepted. Edwards is still learning how to drive kick. If Towns comes back anytime soon, we will be still in learning phase, not in win-now phase.

Good: I am surprised how willing is Conley to shoot threes on wings. It is very different comparing to DLo who shoots more pullup threes from above the break, meanwhile Conley is decisive and quick shooter from wings. I think it is very important, we are in process of transforming our offense and shooting from wings/corners will become increasingly important because of Gobert, Edwards and Towns gravity. Conley, MCD, TP, NAW, Moore are all capable 3pt catch-and-shoot shooters. And I think every game our first 36 minutes are kind of good basketball, good ball movement, good defense. but yeah, 4th quarter is a mess: no rhythm, no identity.

To sum up: I still believe in this team, and main question is now identity. There too many compromises at the same time:

offensive minded players (runners) vs defensive minded players
create chaos in defense vs playing with structure
execution in offense vs creativity
MCD as PoA or MCD as roaming defender

P.S. Interesting that often mentioned here Dejounte Murray is a bad rim protector:

Murray has posted an average-or-worse block rate relative to his position for the past four years. That's not damning; just weird given his 6'10" wingspan.

small update

Just to contextualise current situation in NBA, I want to copy here some stats about DEN offense found on reddit. This is something that I want to keep in mind. DEN is the best NBA offense and all major components were drafted/scouted/developed/acquired by... Tim Connelly!

2nd in offensive rating over the past decade with a 117.4 rating (22/23 Kings are #1 at 118).
1st in eFG% over the past decade at 58%
(This season)
1st in 3PT% with 39.1%
3rd in 2PT% at 57.6%
1st in FG% at 50.9%
2nd in catch and shoot % at 39.7%
3rd in pull up 3 point% at 38%.
3rd in paint touch FG% at 70.1%
5th in fast break points a game at 16.6 ppg.
5th in points in the paint at 54.8 ppg
1st in paints points touches at 26.8 ppg
1st post touch points at 7.4 ppg.
1st in elbow touch points at 10 ppg.
2nd in assists at 29.1 AST
2nd in AST points created at 73 ppg.
4th in passes made per game, at 298.8
5th in secondary assists per game, at 3.8 AST.
4th in points in the clutch, with a 68% win rate.
2nd in points per 100 at 117.4 ppg.
1st in fast break ppp, at 1.22 ppp
1st in pick and roll man ppp, at 1.34 ppp
4th at points per post up, at 1.09 ppp
4th tied in cutting action, at 1.36 ppp
5th in spot up, at 1.08 ppp

Source
https://www.reddit.com/r/nbadiscussion/comments/11dnl5x/the_nuggets_have_one_of_the_most_unstoppable_and/:

So my question stands: what might be a new identity of this roster?

Today game vs LAC: far from perfect offense, but high effort, multiple effort defense. Excellent individual defense and good team defense.







I wonder if in current NBA holding around 100 pts LAC who just scored 175 should be considering a good sign of what our defense can be. However, LAC/DAL ISO game looks like beatable matchups for us, while a high level motion offense like GSW is a big problem for us. Just to contextualise this win.

I also wonder whether this high/multiple effort level in defense is sustainable. Just like last year high wall that was super effective in first half of the season, and second half was bench and offense explosion. I think it is something to keep in mind when we think about this offseason:

Reid (UFA): he is seeking new contract around full MLE. And I think he finds this contract on Fa market. Also If Towns recovers completely there wont be playing time for Reid. He will probably gone, the only positive result could be if we get additional assets by facilitating sign-and-trade for a team over salary cap

Nowell (UFA): MIN started contract negotiations with offer 12mil/3yrs extension, they never came to solution. At this point Nowell value is defined purely by his ability to create shots as primary creator from bench. He cant defend, cant involve others, cant hit wide open 3s consistently. The ceiling for new Nowell contract were Poole, Herro contracts, but unfortunately for him he has been playing very inconsistently. I believe he will gamble on himself during FA market, so I dont think we can wait for him and put any long-term plans.

Knight (team option 2 mil): based on Reid situation I think Knight should be kept. He is solid backup at С, a bit undersized so cant play drop, but he is physical, active and athletic enough to hold his ground against bench players.

NAW (RFA): must be re-signed for multiyear Gupta deal, because he might fit well as bench defensive minded comboguard who can both share some ballhandling load AND at the same time play offball, hit catch-and-shoot 3s.

Rivers (UFA): if NAW plays consistently Rivers wont have minutes, but it would be great to have him next year as veteran/mentor as 14/15th player in rotation

Ryan (two-way): did not impress much

Garza (two-way): last but not least. Garza must be re-signed for multiyear Gupta deal. He is definition of elite offense and awful defense. He cant be full-time NBA backup C, but if we can play him as 3rd string big against certain matchups it will be a luxury.



To sum up:

Coming into next season we will probably lose Reid, Nowell and Rivers. All three are big part of our bench unit this season. Who will fill void? My biggest hope is that Towns can play five-out C with bench unit carrying offense AND at the same time young players such as NAW, Moore and Minott can play in rotation. By doing that MIN will add three players who can play high/multiple effort defense, plus NAW and Moore can be secondary ballhandler and pass the ball. Also McLaughlin is known for hustle plays

Gobert-KA-MCD-Edwards-Conley

Towns-KA/Minott-TP-NAW/Moore-JMac

I really hope that Minott can improve enough to be in NBA rotation, because his rebounding and motor is what we need. I see how valuable Moore can be if he can hit that open 3s on the wings. TP/MCD/NAW/KA/Moore/Conley they all will get a ton of open looks when our offense start to click around Towns/Ant/Gobert it is just too much rim gravity.

P.S. I remember Conley and Grit 'n Grind era in MEM. Can MIN build a modern implementation of that philosophy?

minimus wrote:So my question stands: what might be a new identity of this roster?

Today game vs LAC: far from perfect offense, but high effort, multiple effort defense. Excellent individual defense and good team defense.

I wonder if in current NBA holding around 100 pts LAC who just scored 175 should be considering a good sign of what our defense can be. However, LAC/DAL ISO game looks like beatable matchups for us, while a high level motion offense like GSW is a big problem for us. Just to contextualise this win.

I also wonder whether this high/multiple effort level in defense is sustainable. Just like last year high wall that was super effective in first half of the season, and second half was bench and offense explosion. I think it is something to keep in mind when we think about this offseason:

I think the big thing we saw both last night and against Dallas is that this defense is at its best when facing a heavy-iso offense.

Klomp wrote:

minimus wrote:So my question stands: what might be a new identity of this roster?

Today game vs LAC: far from perfect offense, but high effort, multiple effort defense. Excellent individual defense and good team defense.

I wonder if in current NBA holding around 100 pts LAC who just scored 175 should be considering a good sign of what our defense can be. However, LAC/DAL ISO game looks like beatable matchups for us, while a high level motion offense like GSW is a big problem for us. Just to contextualise this win.

I also wonder whether this high/multiple effort level in defense is sustainable. Just like last year high wall that was super effective in first half of the season, and second half was bench and offense explosion. I think it is something to keep in mind when we think about this offseason:

I think the big thing we saw both last night and against Dallas is that this defense is at its best when facing a heavy-iso offense.

Ant does gave a lot of effort in 1-1 situations most of the time. It's been a problem for Wolves for a long time now on defensive rotations - we need smarter players or playing together more and rotate to the next man

Klomp wrote:

minimus wrote:So my question stands: what might be a new identity of this roster?

Today game vs LAC: far from perfect offense, but high effort, multiple effort defense. Excellent individual defense and good team defense.

I wonder if in current NBA holding around 100 pts LAC who just scored 175 should be considering a good sign of what our defense can be. However, LAC/DAL ISO game looks like beatable matchups for us, while a high level motion offense like GSW is a big problem for us. Just to contextualise this win.

I also wonder whether this high/multiple effort level in defense is sustainable. Just like last year high wall that was super effective in first half of the season, and second half was bench and offense explosion. I think it is something to keep in mind when we think about this offseason:

I think the big thing we saw both last night and against Dallas is that this defense is at its best when facing a heavy-iso offense.

Yes, but the problem is that it goes both ways. We are have all tools to beat heavy-iso offense and we are bad at executing heavy-iso offense in 4th quarter. Let me explain:

Every MIN fan saw this play. It starts just like every ISO play: simple screen for Edwards, who gets the ball on top of the key. But then KA sees Kawhi turning head, Anderson executes backdoor cut, receives the ball and make simple pass.



We have problem with offense execution in 4th quarter. First, besides Anderson and TP (at some degree) are not willing or are not able to recognise backdoor cut opportunities. Second, we dont have pure shooters who can relocate and hit catch&shoot threes. MCD makes huge steps in this direction:



Another hope is that NAW can be that player who can both defend some ballhandlers and chase shooters on perimeter:



So we need good combination of players who can play off the ball, cut and shoot and at the same time we need Edwards and Towns to make high level reads. I also like Conley willingness to move without ball and make extra pass, but he definitely needs to hit that floaters and open 3s.