2023 off-season predictions

[minimus]

My predictions:

- we will let Nowell, Knight go
- we will keep JMac
- we will re-sign Naz and NAW
- we will give Garza Gupta special
- we will trade TP and 53rd pick for 30-40 pick. MIN will draft a shooter or comboguard
- we will use all three two-way contracts

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Towns/Anderson/Minott
MCD/TP/Moore
Edwards/NAW/???
Conley/???/JMac

I really think that by the end of the season NAW and Moore will play for us similar as Bruce Brown and Cristian Braun for DEN.

[shrink]

I think:

In the draft, we use future 2nds and the #53 to make two selections in the second round
JMac signs for the min, with a partial guaranteed second year.
We offer Garza his last two-way, and he eventually accepts at the end of free agency.
We try to keep Naz but he gets a better offer/opportunity elsewhere, and the UFA takes it.
NAW, Nowell, and Knight all move on too.
We keep Prince for stability and salary-matching if we make a trade later.
Connolly uses the MLE on a backup PG, and fills the rest of the roster with vet min vets.
We stay under about $1-2 mil lux.

I know people love Naz - the organization, the players, the fans, and me, but I think he just finds a better place for his career, and I would wish him well. But having Connolly use the MLE is not a bad outcome, even if we don’t know who it would be for right now. Connolly did really well with the MLE last year, finding Anderson and leaving enough left to lock up Minott.

[NebWolvesFan]

My predictions.

I think KAT gets traded to the Knicks. They have a 50-game sample of what the team looked like without him. His value will only do down from here and they don't want Towns to be Beal 2.0. The Knicks without draft picks or cap space will have to make a big move or piss off their fanbase.

I'm predicting Quickley, Grimes, Robinson, Fournier, 24 Dallas FRP, 25 Knicks FRP, 27 Knicks FRP for Towns, Moore Jr., Prince and 53rd pick

Naz Reid leaves for Charlotte
NAW resigns for 3yrs-18 million
Garza resigns for 4 yrs (last two non-guaranteed)

McDaniels/NAW/Fournier
Anderson/Minott/Knight
Gobert/Robinson/Garza
Edwards/Grimes/
Conley/Quickley/McLaughlin

[minimus]

Connolly

When you write Connolly I am always laughing. Is it intentionally?

[Biff Cooper]

JMac signs for the min, with a partial guaranteed second year.

Doesn't he have like a $2.3M club option for 23-24? Does this mean you think they will decline his option while re-negotiating with him for slightly less while adding a partially guaranteed additional year?

[Baseline81]

I think:

In the draft, we use future 2nds and the #53 to make two selections in the second round
JMac signs for the min, with a partial guaranteed second year.
We offer Garza his last two-way, and he eventually accepts at the end of free agency.
We try to keep Naz but he gets a better offer/opportunity elsewhere, and the UFA takes it.
NAW, Nowell, and Knight all move on too.
We keep Prince for stability and salary-matching if we make a trade later.
Connolly uses the MLE on a backup PG, and fills the rest of the roster with vet min vets.
We stay under about $1-2 mil lux.

I know people love Naz - the organization, the players, the fans, and me, but I think he just finds a better place for his career, and I would wish him well. But having Connolly use the MLE is not a bad outcome, even if we don’t know who it would be for right now. Connolly did really well with the MLE last year, finding Anderson and leaving enough left to lock up Minott.

To me, that would be an underwhelming offseason. Losing both Reid and Alexander-Walker while hanging onto Prince and McLaughlin. Only saving grace is no longer seeing Nowell.

[twolves31]

The luxury tax was announced to start at 165 million or 3 million more than it was expected. That is good news as it gives a little more breathing room to sign both Reid and NAW back. I would try to keep them both and trade Reid for a pg.

[shrink]

JMac signs for the min, with a partial guaranteed second year.

Doesn't he have like a $2.3M club option for 23-24? Does this mean you think they will decline his option while re-negotiating with him for slightly less while adding a partially guaranteed additional year?

You’re right - I might just be getting too fancy here, since the vet min is now worth nearly $2 mil straight up.

However, my feeling is that Tim CONNELLY ( ) will want to have some access to another cheap contract into 24-25, and he’ll use JMac’s need for “years, not dollars” to secure it. If Connelly declines the team option, JMac is suddenly a borderline pro, looking to stay in the NBA, and avoid smaller paychecks overseas. If he offers him the vet min, and say, $600,000 guaranteed in 2024-25 on a vet min deal, that’s still a guaranteed $300,000 more. For most NBA players, that’s chump change - for JMac, $300,000 and an NBA job could be a better alternative.

Connolly

When you write Connolly I am always laughing. Is it intentionally?

I spelled it wrong so many times at the start, that my spellcheck corrects it to this now!

[Baseline81]

You’re right - I might just be getting too fancy here, since the vet min is now worth nearly $2 mil straight up.

However, my feeling is that Tim CONNELLY ( ) will want to have some access to another cheap contract into 24-25, and he’ll use JMac’s need for “years, not dollars” to secure it. If Connelly declines the team option, JMac is suddenly a borderline pro, looking to stay in the NBA, and avoid smaller paychecks overseas. If he offers him the vet min, and say, $600,000 guaranteed in 2024-25 on a vet min deal, that’s still a guaranteed $300,000 more. For most NBA players, that’s chump change - for JMac, $300,000 and an NBA job could be a better alternative.

I would rather the Wolves promote Moore than watch another minute of McLaughlin.

[shrink]

...

To me, that would be an underwhelming offseason. Losing both Reid and Alexander-Walker while hanging onto Prince and McLaughlin. Only saving grace is no longer seeing Nowell.

I agree, and not really what I want either, but we spent most of our capital last year, and I would be surprised to see a trade of our big six salaries.

Still, if Connelly can use the MLE to find another Kyle Anderson-level useful addition …? Tall ask.

[cmoss84]

1) We consolidate all of our draft picks to move up to late 1st round. Take Brandon Podziemski.

2) Blockbuster Trade:
MN OUT: KAT, Prince, WMJr
MN IN: Lamelo Ball, Gordon Hayward

3) Nowell, Jmac, and Night go bye-bye

4) Sign Naz and Naw. Keep Minott and Garza as well. Fill in spots 14-15 with vet mins.

5) C: Gobert/Garza/NAZ/FA
PF: NAZ/Garza/Minott/Jaden
SF: Jaden/Slo-Mo/Hayward/Minott
SG: Ant/NAW/Hayward/Podzienski
PG: Ball/Conley/Ant/FA

[Klomp]

JMac signs for the min, with a partial guaranteed second year.

Doesn't he have like a $2.3M club option for 23-24? Does this mean you think they will decline his option while re-negotiating with him for slightly less while adding a partially guaranteed additional year?

McLaughlin's "option" (I think it's technically a guarantee date) is before free agency opens. I think it'd be foolish to lock him in for above the minimum when we're talking about dollars and cents being critical as we approach the luxury tax.

[shrink]

I would rather the Wolves promote Moore than watch another minute of McLaughlin.

I understand with his poor shooting last year, but we’ll need some third string PG either way. Most nights he won’t play, he was very good the previous season, the players seem to like him, and he brings more continuity, especially off the court. And Finchy likes him.

I think we’ll see more Moore, regardless of whether we bring back JMac.

[Baseline81]

I understand with his poor shooting last year, but we’ll need some third string PG either way. Most nights he won’t play, he was very good the previous season, the players seem to like him, and he brings more continuity, especially off the court. And Finchy likes him.

I think we’ll see more Moore, regardless of whether we bring back JMac.

Third-string spots should be saved for developmental players, IMO. McLaughlin has reached his potential, and, to be honest, it's not all that great. Like with Nowell, it's best to part ways.

[Note30]

Its unfortunate, but outside of resigning Naz, NAW, maybe a vet min free agent here and there, I don't think we have the flexibility to make any moves unless we get underpaid on deals.

My prediction is that we mostly stay pat with the above, and make a trade at the deadline or next offseason.

[TimberKat]

1) We consolidate all of our draft picks to move up to late 1st round. Take Brandon Podziemski.

2) Blockbuster Trade:
MN OUT: KAT, Prince, WMJr
MN IN: Lamelo Ball, Gordon Hayward

3) Nowell, Jmac, and Night go bye-bye

4) Sign Naz and Naw. Keep Minott and Garza as well. Fill in spots 14-15 with vet mins.

5) C: Gobert/Garza/NAZ/FA
PF: NAZ/Garza/Minott/Jaden
SF: Jaden/Slo-Mo/Hayward/Minott
SG: Ant/NAW/Hayward/Podzienski
PG: Ball/Conley/Ant/FA

I will be ok with Towns for Ball for basketball reasons. Assuming he stays. Don't we have the same salary cap concern as Ball will be a max guy ( if the reason to trade Towns is about his supermax).

[Klomp]

1) We consolidate all of our draft picks to move up to late 1st round. Take Brandon Podziemski.

2) Blockbuster Trade:
MN OUT: KAT, Prince, WMJr
MN IN: Lamelo Ball, Gordon Hayward

3) Nowell, Jmac, and Night go bye-bye

4) Sign Naz and Naw. Keep Minott and Garza as well. Fill in spots 14-15 with vet mins.

5) C: Gobert/Garza/NAZ/FA
PF: NAZ/Garza/Minott/Jaden
SF: Jaden/Slo-Mo/Hayward/Minott
SG: Ant/NAW/Hayward/Podzienski
PG: Ball/Conley/Ant/FA

I will be ok with Towns for Ball for basketball reasons. Assuming he stays. Don't we have the same salary cap concern as Ball will be a max guy ( if the reason to trade Towns is about his supermax).

Towns supermax: 35% of cap
Ball max: 25% of cap

[wolves_89]

Here's my off-season prediction (total salary ends up ~$1.5M below luxury tax line):

- trade Prince for cap space and a 2nd
- move up to early 2nd round (using 2nds and cash) and draft Sasser
- draft a 2-way player at #53
- waive McLaughlin
- re-sign Naz for $42M/3 years
- re-sign NAW for $20M/3 years
- sign Pat Beverly for the vet minimum ($3.2M that counts as $2.0M against the cap)
- sign Bates-Diop for $16M/3 years
- sign Garza to 4-year minimum deal (3rd and 4th years unguaranteed)

Roster:

Conley/Beverley/Sasser
Edwards/Alexander-Walker/Moore
McDaniels/Bates-Diop/Minott
Towns/Anderson/Knight
Gobert/Reid/Garza

[Dewey]

Since KG (and even Love)… Anyone ever notice teams looking to win now or add “that player” never mention Kat?

[m2002brian]

Since KG (and even Love)… Anyone ever notice teams looking to win now or add “that player” never mention Kat?

Hey now <sarcasm>what kind of narrative are you trying to perpetuate?</sarcasm>